{"id":2561,"date":"2025-11-10T21:45:50","date_gmt":"2025-11-10T21:45:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/fr\/economique\/?p=2561"},"modified":"2025-11-10T21:45:51","modified_gmt":"2025-11-10T21:45:51","slug":"la-politique-dimmigration-du-canada-reste-restrictive-malgre-des-dispenses-de-residence-permanente","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/fr\/economique\/analyse-pour-le-canada\/analyse-en-vedette\/perspectives\/la-politique-dimmigration-du-canada-reste-restrictive-malgre-des-dispenses-de-residence-permanente\/","title":{"rendered":"La politique d\u2019immigration du Canada reste restrictive malgr\u00e9 des dispenses de r\u00e9sidence permanente"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
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Le tout nouveau plan d\u2019immigration<\/a> sur trois ans du gouvernement f\u00e9d\u00e9ral canadien repr\u00e9sente un changement de politique beaucoup moins important que la refonte de l\u2019an dernier.<\/p>\n<\/div><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

Le gouvernement r\u00e9duit davantage le nombre de r\u00e9sidents temporaires autoris\u00e9s \u00e0 entrer au Canada. Toutefois, il pr\u00e9voit \u00e9galement des exceptions dans le cadre de programmes ponctuels de traitement acc\u00e9l\u00e9r\u00e9 des demandes qui se traduiront par une augmentation du nombre de r\u00e9sidents permanents, ce qui devrait att\u00e9nuer la baisse.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Les dirigeants ont \u00e9galement prolong\u00e9 le d\u00e9lai pr\u00e9vu en vue de r\u00e9duire la proportion de r\u00e9sidents temporaires au Canada \u00e0 \u00ab moins de 5 % \u00bb de la population totale, ayant repouss\u00e9 la date cible de 2026 \u00e0 la fin de 2027.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

L\u2019effet net de ces changements ne devrait pas avoir d\u2019incidence sur nos pr\u00e9visions de croissance de la population pour 2025, qui sont tout juste en de\u00e7\u00e0 de 1 %. Nos pr\u00e9visions pour la suite tenaient d\u00e9j\u00e0 compte du fait que la baisse des sorties am\u00e8nerait le nombre de r\u00e9sidents temporaires \u00e0 5 % de la population d\u2019ici la fin de 2027, conform\u00e9ment \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9ch\u00e9ancier r\u00e9vis\u00e9 du gouvernement.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Toutefois, les d\u00e9parts de r\u00e9sidents temporaires et les diverses exemptions continuent d\u2019accro\u00eetre l\u2019incertitude \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9gard du taux de croissance de la population \u00e0 court terme, et les cibles d\u2019arriv\u00e9e des r\u00e9sidents permanents et temporaires continueront d\u2019\u00eatre actualis\u00e9es chaque ann\u00e9e.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

N\u00e9anmoins, nous nous attendons toujours \u00e0 ce que la croissance de la population canadienne ralentisse pour s\u2019approcher de z\u00e9ro en 2026 et en 2027.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Augmentation pr\u00e9vue du nombre total d\u2019admissions de r\u00e9sidents permanents dans les deux prochaines ann\u00e9es<\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n

\u00c0 premi\u00e8re vue, les nouveaux niveaux d\u2019immigration ont sembl\u00e9 r\u00e9duire puis stabiliser la cible de r\u00e9sidence permanente, qui est pass\u00e9e de 395 000 en 2025 \u00e0 380 000 au cours des trois prochaines ann\u00e9es. Toutefois, des dispenses ponctuelles permettront d\u2019augmenter le nombre d\u2019immigrants en pratique.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Au-del\u00e0 des cibles d\u2019immigration habituelles, le gouvernement acc\u00e9l\u00e9rera le traitement des demandes d\u2019environ 115 000 personnes prot\u00e9g\u00e9es d\u00e9j\u00e0 en voie d\u2019obtenir la r\u00e9sidence permanente en 2026 et 2027, ce qui portera le nombre r\u00e9el d\u2019admissions de r\u00e9sidents permanents jusqu\u2019\u00e0 437 500 en 2026. Il s\u2019agit d\u2019une augmentation de 11 % par rapport au nombre pr\u00e9vu en 2025, ce qui est nettement sup\u00e9rieur \u00e0 la cible annuelle officielle de 380 000 admissions pour la p\u00e9riode allant de 2026 \u00e0 2028.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bien que ces dispenses s\u2019appliquent aux personnes qui vivent d\u00e9j\u00e0 au Canada, le traitement de leur demande de r\u00e9sidence permanente permet d\u2019accro\u00eetre la capacit\u00e9 du Canada d\u2019accueillir de nouveaux r\u00e9sidents permanents.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Le gouvernement pr\u00e9voit \u00e9galement acc\u00e9l\u00e9rer la transition d\u2019un maximum de 33 000 travailleurs temporaires vers la r\u00e9sidence permanente en 2026 et 2027. Toutefois, on ne sait pas si ces transitions repr\u00e9sentent des admissions additionnelles ou si elles sont d\u00e9j\u00e0 prises en compte dans les cibles actuelles.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

R\u00e9duction additionnelle des cibles de r\u00e9sidence temporaire, faute de pr\u00e9visions de sorties<\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n

Le nouveau plan d\u2019immigration comporte des changements plus importants en ce qui concerne les r\u00e9sidents temporaires, lesquels devraient contrebalancer la hausse du nombre de r\u00e9sidents permanents.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

La r\u00e9duction marqu\u00e9e de 43 % du nombre de nouveaux r\u00e9sidents temporaires que pr\u00e9voit le gouvernement, soit d\u2019environ 674 000 en 2025 \u00e0 385 000 en 2026, visait \u00e0 soutenir l\u2019engagement de ce dernier \u00e0 r\u00e9duire le nombre de r\u00e9sidents temporaires \u00e0 moins de 5 % de la population totale, quoique dans un d\u00e9lai prolong\u00e9.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Comme les sorties se sont r\u00e9v\u00e9l\u00e9es difficiles \u00e0 g\u00e9rer, le gouvernement s\u2019est tourn\u00e9 vers une baisse consid\u00e9rable du nombre de sorties comme principale solution pour atteindre ses cibles d\u00e9mographiques.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On s\u2019est toujours attendus \u00e0 ce qu\u2019il soit difficile<\/a> de pr\u00e9voir le nombre de sorties, compte tenu de la capacit\u00e9 limit\u00e9e du gouvernement \u00e0 contr\u00f4ler les d\u00e9cisions de chaque personne quant \u00e0 son d\u00e9part et de la difficult\u00e9 \u00e0 d\u00e9terminer avec exactitude si les titulaires de permis quittent bel et bien le Canada \u00e0 l\u2019expiration de ce dernier. Contrairement au plan de 2024, le rapport de cette ann\u00e9e ne contenait aucune pr\u00e9vision de sorties.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

R\u00e9duction de moiti\u00e9 des admissions d\u2019\u00e9tudiants internationaux<\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n

C\u2019est le nombre d\u2019admissions d\u2019\u00e9tudiants internationaux qui a subi l\u2019incidence la plus importante de ces r\u00e9ductions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Les admissions ont \u00e9t\u00e9 r\u00e9duites de moiti\u00e9 par rapport \u00e0 celles observ\u00e9es en 2025 et leur nombre demeurera autour de 150 000 au cours des trois prochaines ann\u00e9es. Il s\u2019agit du plus faible nombre de permis d\u2019\u00e9tudes d\u00e9livr\u00e9s en au moins une d\u00e9cennie.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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La r\u00e9duction des cibles li\u00e9es aux \u00e9tudiants \u00e9trangers posera davantage un d\u00e9fi pour les \u00e9tablissements d\u2019enseignement postsecondaire qui comptent une forte proportion d\u2019\u00e9tudiants \u00e9trangers et risque d\u2019avoir une incidence sur le bassin de talents form\u00e9s du Canada.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Comme nous l\u2019avons d\u00e9j\u00e0 mentionn\u00e9<\/a>, la r\u00e9duction des entr\u00e9es a \u00e9galement des effets importants sur les march\u00e9s locatifs canadiens, en particulier dans les r\u00e9gions o\u00f9 la concentration d\u2019\u00e9tudiants est \u00e9lev\u00e9e. D\u2019autres r\u00e9ductions des cibles pourraient accentuer le ralentissement du march\u00e9 locatif, car les \u00e9tudiants internationaux repr\u00e9senteraient alors une part moins importante de la demande de logements locatifs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Le gouvernement acc\u00e9l\u00e8re le traitement des demandes des travailleurs au moyen de programmes de mobilit\u00e9<\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n
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Le gouvernement a \u00e9galement modifi\u00e9 les priorit\u00e9s des programmes de travailleurs temporaires. La part du Programme de mobilit\u00e9 internationale (PMI) a augment\u00e9 par rapport aux cibles de 2024, tandis que les cibles de travailleurs \u00e9trangers temporaires ont diminu\u00e9.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ce changement de politique permet \u00e0 un plus grand nombre de travailleurs d\u2019entrer plus rapidement sur le march\u00e9 du travail canadien, plut\u00f4t que de passer d\u2019abord par le processus \u00e0 deux \u00e9tapes qui consiste \u00e0 \u00e9tudier d\u2019abord au Canada.<\/p>\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n

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Rachel Battaglia<\/strong> est \u00e9conomiste \u00e0 RBC. Elle est membre du groupe d\u2019Analyse macro\u00e9conomique et r\u00e9gionale et fournit des analyses des perspectives macro\u00e9conomiques provinciales. Elle est titulaire d\u2019un baccalaur\u00e9at en \u00e9conomie (avec distinction) de l\u2019Universit\u00e9 Western Ontario et d\u2019une ma\u00eetrise en sciences de l\u2019Amsterdam School of Economics.<\/em><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"author":318,"featured_media":1360,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"advgb_blocks_editor_width":"","advgb_blocks_columns_visual_guide":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[77,71,79],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2561","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analyse-en-vedette","category-analyse-pour-le-canada","category-perspectives"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nLa politique d\u2019immigration du Canada reste restrictive malgr\u00e9 des dispenses de r\u00e9sidence permanente - RBC Economique<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" 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