{"id":1061,"date":"2025-10-21T14:17:00","date_gmt":"2025-10-21T14:17:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/fr\/economique\/2025\/08\/19\/rbc-veille-sur-linflation-au-canada\/"},"modified":"2025-10-21T20:39:51","modified_gmt":"2025-10-21T20:39:51","slug":"rbc-veille-sur-linflation-au-canada","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/fr\/economique\/analyse-pour-le-canada\/rapports-de-donnees-provisoires\/rbc-veille-sur-linflation-au-canada\/","title":{"rendered":"RBC Veille sur l\u2019inflation au Canada"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
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\n

Hausse de l\u2019inflation au Canada en septembre<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Par<\/em> Abbey Xu<\/em><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

En r\u00e9sum\u00e9\u00a0:<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

L\u2019inflation globale a grimp\u00e9 en septembre pour s\u2019\u00e9tablir \u00e0 2,4 % d\u2019une ann\u00e9e sur l\u2019autre, contre 1,9 % en ao\u00fbt, alors que nous nous attendions \u00e0 un taux de 2,3 %. Cette acc\u00e9l\u00e9ration est principalement attribuable \u00e0 un recul des prix de l\u2019\u00e9nergie moins important que lors des mois pr\u00e9c\u00e9dents, sur une base annuelle. Cependant, les mesures de base privil\u00e9gi\u00e9es par la Banque du Canada sont rest\u00e9es robustes. L\u2019IPC-tronq aussi bien que l\u2019IPC-m\u00e9d se situent l\u00e9g\u00e8rement au-dessus de 3 % sur 12 mois, avec une l\u00e9g\u00e8re acc\u00e9l\u00e9ration selon leur moyenne mobile sur trois mois.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

L\u2019inflation demeure sup\u00e9rieure \u00e0 la cible de 2 % de la Banque du Canada, mais c\u2019\u00e9tait aussi le cas lorsque la banque centrale a r\u00e9duit le taux du financement \u00e0 un jour en septembre. L\u2019ampleur des tensions inflationnistes a quelque peu diminu\u00e9, selon nos calculs de septembre. La hausse du taux de ch\u00f4mage, la baisse des attentes d\u2019inflation des entreprises \u2013 selon l\u2019enqu\u00eate sur les perspectives des entreprises men\u00e9e par la Banque du Canada \u2013 et la suppression de la plupart des droits de douane de repr\u00e9sailles canadiens pourraient conforter l\u2019opinion de la Banque du Canada selon laquelle les risques de hausse de l\u2019inflation se sont att\u00e9nu\u00e9s. Dans notre sc\u00e9nario de base, nous supposons une r\u00e9duction suppl\u00e9mentaire du taux du financement \u00e0 un jour, la semaine prochaine en octobre.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ainsi, le taux du financement \u00e0 un jour se situerait dans la partie inf\u00e9rieure de sa fourchette neutre estimative (2,25 %), soit un niveau qui n\u2019augmenterait ni ne diminuerait les pressions inflationnistes au fil du temps. Nous pensons qu\u2019il sera plus difficile de r\u00e9duire les taux d\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat \u00e0 des niveaux de stimulation \u00e9conomique, car l\u2019inflation persiste \u00e0 un taux sup\u00e9rieur \u00e0 la cible, et nous croyons que la politique budg\u00e9taire pourrait offrir un soutien accru apr\u00e8s la publication du budget f\u00e9d\u00e9ral au d\u00e9but de novembre.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

En d\u00e9tail\u00a0:<\/strong><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n
    \n
  • \n

    L\u2019acc\u00e9l\u00e9ration de la croissance de l\u2019IPC d\u2019une ann\u00e9e sur l\u2019autre est principalement attribuable au fait qu\u2019en septembre, le d\u00e9clin des prix de l\u2019\u00e9nergie en septembre a \u00e9t\u00e9 inf\u00e9rieur \u00e0 celui d\u2019ao\u00fbt (-2,6\u00a0% sur douze\u00a0mois, contre -8,3\u00a0% sur douze\u00a0mois), et que cette d\u00e9c\u00e9l\u00e9ration a suffi \u00e0 faire grimper le chiffre de l\u2019inflation globale. Les prix des aliments ont pour leur part poursuivi leur ascension graduelle, passant de 3,5\u00a0% en ao\u00fbt \u00e0 4\u00a0%, principalement sous l\u2019effet de l\u2019acc\u00e9l\u00e9ration de la hausse des prix \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9picerie.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n

  • \n

    Hors de ces cat\u00e9gories volatiles, l\u2019IPC excluant les aliments et l\u2019\u00e9nergie a peu fluctu\u00e9, demeurant \u00e0 2,4\u00a0%. Les deux mesures d\u2019inflation que privil\u00e9gie la Banque du Canada, soit l\u2019IPC-tronq et l\u2019IPC-m\u00e9d, ont l\u00e9g\u00e8rement augment\u00e9 sur 12\u00a0mois. Selon les moyennes mobiles sur trois mois, qui refl\u00e8tent mieux les tendances r\u00e9centes plut\u00f4t que les donn\u00e9es sur un seul mois, l\u2019IPC-tronq a grimp\u00e9 \u00e0 2,6\u00a0% tandis que l\u2019IPC-m\u00e9d est rest\u00e9 \u00e0 2,7\u00a0%.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n

  • \n

    L\u2019ampleur des tensions inflationnistes sur le panier de l\u2019IPC s\u2019est quelque peu mod\u00e9r\u00e9e en septembre, mais elle demeure g\u00e9n\u00e9ralis\u00e9e. Environ 47\u00a0% des composantes ont affich\u00e9 des taux d\u2019inflation annualis\u00e9s sur trois mois sup\u00e9rieurs \u00e0 3\u00a0%, contre 50\u00a0% en ao\u00fbt.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n

  • \n

    La composante des prix des logements a peu \u00e9volu\u00e9 en septembre, se maintenant \u00e0 un taux de 2,6\u00a0%. Toutefois, l\u2019inflation des loyers a rebondi apr\u00e8s avoir ralenti le mois pr\u00e9c\u00e9dent, passant de 4,5\u00a0% en ao\u00fbt \u00e0 4,8\u00a0%.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n

  • \n

    Les prix des voyages organis\u00e9s ont poursuivi leur trajectoire descendante, inscrivant un cinqui\u00e8me recul mensuel cons\u00e9cutif en septembre. Cela dit, ce d\u00e9clin a consid\u00e9rablement ralenti, marquant une am\u00e9lioration \u00e0 -1,3\u00a0% en septembre contre -9,3\u00a0% en ao\u00fbt.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n

  • \n

    Les droits de scolarit\u00e9, qui font l\u2019objet d\u2019une mise \u00e0 jour annuelle en septembre, ont inscrit une hausse plus modeste de 1,7\u00a0%, soit le taux le plus bas depuis\u00a01976, exception faite de\u00a02019.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n

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    <\/div>\n\n\n\n
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