China<\/a> is expected to build 5 gigawatts of nuclear power this year. Bangladesh and T\u00fcrkiye are both expecting to open their first reactors in 2025, with Egypt not far behind. Abu Dhabi now has four nuclear plants, with plans for more. All told, nuclear accounts for about 10% of the world\u2019s energy mix. But just to maintain that share, the world needs to triple production by 2050 \u2014and that means adding 50 gigawatts of capacity every year for the next 20 years. Bear in mind the best year on record was in the 1980s, at 31 gigawatts.<\/p>\nSome new models are needed. Several speakers spoke of a need to narrow the range of nuclear technologies being pursued, in order to help aggregate demand for the technologies as well as skills and supply chains attached to them. Too many projects remain first of a kind. More reactors may also need to be built both on existing sites, as well as decommissioned coal facilities, to take advantage of existing infrastructure, cool water and local support. And critically, governments and nuclear developers need to commit to long lead cycles, typically up to 15 years. That\u2019s usually difficult for investors, other than pension funds and sovereign wealth funds, which suggests new financing models may be needed, too.<\/p>\n
6. Critical minerals: When will we realize they really are critical?<\/h2>\n
A range of strategically-important minerals have been called \u201ccritical minerals\u201d since World War 2, when Canada stopped shipping nickel to Japan and the U.S. helped blockade Greenland, fearing the Nazi occupation of Denmark would claim the Arctic region\u2019s minerals to add to its military machinery. We\u2019re back to a mindset of criticality\u2014if it\u2019s not too late\u2014and energy supplies depend on it. All those data centres and electricity lines require copper and nickel, and more exotic minerals. To meet the world\u2019s energy expectations, we will need to mine as much copper in the next 20 years as the world has mined in the last 20 centuries. Unfortunately, China has a stranglehold on production and processing. One startling fact: China now has 60 mineral smelters; the U.S., two. Most U.S. copper, as a result, is shipped to China, as concentrate, and returned as wire and other products.<\/p>\n
The West is 30 years behind China, and it will take decades more to catch up. For one, a mine takes up to 20 years to find and another 10 to develop. Local resistance to mines and smelters will also need to be overcome. As is the case for energy, new financing models will be needed for these long-term projects. The Trump Administration has proposed a sovereign wealth fund, harnessing rents on the massive tracts of land and oceans the federal government owns. It is also using the ExIm Bank, its main export financing arm, to support critical minerals projects. Canada is exploring similar options through Export Development Canada. If the West were to take a wartime mentality to the challenge, governments might start to allocate production and restrict materials for strategic needs. Whether the U.S., Canada and others could also accept more accommodating labour and environmental standards is another question altogether.<\/p>\n
7. Supply chains: can we actually make the stuff we need?<\/h2>\n
You can have the right policies and right projects and even the right timing\u2014and still get it wrong if supply chains are not with you. Across the energy sector, that perhaps remains the biggest near-term concern. One mining executive said giant rock washers now take seven years to be delivered. One electricity executive said he\u2019s waiting for a delivery of gas turbines, which are scheduled to come in 2030. Moreover, the cost is up three-fold since before the pandemic. Smaller stuff can be just as hard to get, such as enriched uranium and graphite for nuclear plants. Governments may need to start to allocate resource production, including material supplies, manufacturing capacity, and logistical support, to ensure resilience of critical industries.<\/p>\n
Skilled labour is equally in short supply, in part because so few gas projects have been built over the past five years\u2014and in part because of the boom in LNG construction. A nuclear energy executive said he doesn\u2019t need more PhDs (although he\u2019s happy to hire them), as much as he needs community college graduates who can take on sophisticated welding and pipefitting jobs. Even Larry Fink, the CEO of BlackRock, the giant Wall Street investment firm, focused his CERA comments on the growing labour market crisis. His blunt message, which he said he also shared with President Trump: \u201cWe\u2019re going to run out of electricians.\u201d<\/p>\n
8. Climate: will it dominate again?<\/h2>\n
From the opening session, climate action was on the backfoot, if mentioned at all. Energy Secretary Chris Wright set the tone with the opening keynote, saying emissions were a function of economic growth, and the world wants more growth. \u201cEverything in life involves trade-offs. Everything!\u201d he stressed. It was more than rhetorical. The return of natural gas to the forefront was seen to move its status from transition source to base-load source of energy. In other words, it\u2019s here for the long run, as evidenced by North Carolina\u2019s recent plans to add 5 gigawatts of gas power. Even coal got some positive mentions, as perhaps a necessary fuel for the AI boom.<\/p>\n
The biggest question on climate action remained unanswered: will Trump kill the Inflation Reduction Act? Several big oil and gas executives argued in favour of Joe Biden\u2019s signature act, saying they had developed and capitalized a host of decarbonization investments that helped drive their energy efficiency and profitability. Vicki Hollub, CEO of Occidental Petroleum, advocated for the continuation of tax credits that help fund her company\u2019s direct air capture projects\u2014a key reason it bought B.C.-based Carbon Engineering in 2023. Oxy is also trying to advance its work with enhanced oil recovery, by capturing carbon from the air, liquefying it and pumping it back into old reservoirs, to push oil to the surface. Many environmentalists look askance at EOR, as it\u2019s known, arguing it\u2019s more or less a shell game that trades carbon for carbon. But the fact that EOR is back, at least for some, as a net-zero strategy, signals how much has changed in one year.<\/p>\n
John Stackhouse<\/strong> is Senior Vice-President to the Office of the CEO at RBC, and head of RBC Thought Leadership.<\/em><\/p>\nFollow him on LinkedIn here<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n
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