{"id":9496,"date":"2024-11-07T15:29:37","date_gmt":"2024-11-07T15:29:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/thought-leadership\/climate-crunch-unpacking-trump-2-0s-climate-playbook\/"},"modified":"2025-05-09T15:11:12","modified_gmt":"2025-05-09T15:11:12","slug":"climate-crunch-unpacking-trump-2-0s-climate-playbook","status":"publish","type":"rbc_tl","link":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/thought-leadership\/climate-action-institute\/climate-crunch\/climate-crunch-unpacking-trump-2-0s-climate-playbook\/","title":{"rendered":"Climate Crunch: Unpacking Trump’s climate agenda"},"content":{"rendered":"

Issue #04<\/span><\/p>\n

\u2794<\/span> The scrap over the cap
\n\u2794<\/span> What the Trump climate show means for Canada
\n\u2794<\/span> Pathways charts a CCS path
\n\u2794<\/span> COP 29\u2019s calendar conflict<\/p>\n

\n

Hot takes<\/h3>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

\u2794<\/span> Alberta\u2019s major carbon capture project revs up. <\/strong>Pathways Alliance\u2019s request for proposals from pipe manufacturers<\/a> and talks with Ottawa<\/a> on funding, signal progress on the long-awaited project. Proposed by six major oilsands companies, the $16.5 billion CCS<\/a> project involves transporting carbon from 20 oilsands facilities<\/strong> by pipeline to a storage terminal in Alberta\u2019s Cold Lake area, reducing emissions by 22 megatonnes a year, or around 10% of sector emissions. It could be a game-changer\u2014a tired clich\u00e9, we admit\u2014but a deserving label given the considerable scale of collaboration and ambition.<\/p>\n

\u2794<\/span> There\u2019s a gaggle of climate reports out there\u2014it must be COP season. <\/strong>The world needs to cough up around US$9 trillion more annually on climate financing to meet its Paris Agreement targets, notes a 100-page UN Emission Gap Report 2024<\/a>, in what seems to be an avalanche of analysis pre-COP in Baku, Azerbaijan. The IEA also recently dropped Tome No. 1<\/strong> (the 398-page World Energy Outlook<\/a>) and Tome No. 2 (the 573-page Energy Technology Perspectives 2024<\/a>)\u2014with an Energy Efficiency 2024 report planned for today\u2014IEA reports are considered benchmarks and widely referenced. A separate UN report<\/a> on national climate plans and a Greenhouse Bulletin<\/a> is also prime reading material<\/strong> for delegates on their long Toronto\/Calgary flights to Baku.<\/p>\n

\u2794<\/span> COP16 ended in disarray. <\/strong>Delegates at the global event on bio-diversity in Cali, Colombia<\/a>, dithered over nature funding<\/strong> and targets for this decade. Many developing nations\u2019 delegates didn\u2019t have the funds\u2014symptomatic of the problem\u2014to change flights and left the summit without a deal<\/a>. There were some breakthroughs though, including a global levy on products using genetic data from nature, and a \u201cwatershed\u201d decision to include Indigenous communities\u2019 voice<\/strong> in future decisions on nature conservation.<\/p>\n

The Simpsons<\/em>\u2014as it often does\u2014predicted it.<\/strong> Billionaires are eyeing ways to block the sun with Bill Gates<\/a> and OpenAI CEO Sam Altman among major backers. Mr Burns\u2019<\/a> tried something similar in the famously prescient animated<\/a> series. Solar radiation management aims to cool the planet by intentionally reflecting increasing amounts of incoming sunlight back to space. Insurers<\/a> have warned of unintended climate changes<\/strong> that could trigger international conflicts. It also does little to reduce greenhouse emissions. Last year, the UN<\/a> said deploying the technology was \u201cunwise.\u201d<\/strong> Would it stop the billionaires?<\/p>\n

Bi-Weekly Climate Action Award:<\/strong> To researchers at Zhengzhou University in China<\/a> and the University of South Australia for developing\u00a0 a fabric that counters heatwaves<\/strong>. Unlike conventional fabrics that retain heat, the textiles comprise three layers engineered to optimize cooling.<\/p>\n

Bi-Weekly Climate Fail Ward:<\/strong> To the Kremlin for withholding<\/strong> vital Arctic<\/a> climate change data from NATO. Russia is also pursuing a widescale disinformation campaign against decarbonization, the Western military alliance has warned.<\/p>\n

Unpacking Trump 2.0\u2019s Climate Playbook<\/h3>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Donald Trump has stormed back into the White House, raising critical questions around U.S. climate policy especially the Inflation Reduction Act, President Joe Biden\u2019s signature climate law, and the Paris deal. While a second Trump innings may not necessarily wreck global climate policy\u2014it could certainly look different in a few years\u2019 time.<\/p>\n

What happens to IRA now?:<\/strong> Trump has threatened to rescind all unspent funds from the Inflation Reduction Act<\/a>, but it may be tricky as many Republican states<\/strong> and districts<\/strong> benefit bigly from the law (see table). Some analysts<\/a> argue the rollout is too advanced to be axed, but Trump can certainly insist on a reset: a repackaged and rebranded policy, with some technologies getting more love than others. (For example, Trump considers wind energy \u201cdisgusting,\u201d<\/a> which could knock the wind out of that sector). Renewable stocks\u2019 swoon<\/strong> after Trump\u2019s win suggests low-carbon energy investors are anxious.<\/p>\n

Life after Paris:<\/strong> Trump pulled the U.S. out of the global climate deal<\/a> in his first term\u2014he could do so again. UN chief Antonio Guterres<\/a> thinks a second U.S. exit could \u201ccripple\u201d the Paris climate agreement<\/strong>. But there may be life beyond Paris. In Trump\u2019s universe, allies will have to learn to jump headlong into new policy wormholes. Perhaps it could mean an America-led energy and climate club of allies that excludes China. It could also lead to a reset on many fronts in the form of new climate targets for 2030 and 2050 and policies that weigh energy security and affordability as equally as emissions\u2014policies that are more palatable to businesses and consumers. Bespoke climate solutions rather than the grand one-size-fits-all policies that many countries are reluctant to pursue.<\/p>\n

\u201cFun\u201d with CUSMA:<\/strong> The next renegotiation phase with Canada\u2019s CUSMA (ex-NAFTA) members U.S. and Mexico in 2026 might be more intense under a Trump administration, which is seeking more protections for the American auto industry. \u201cOh, I\u2019m going to have a lot of fun,\u201d<\/a> Trump noted, ominously. But it may not be a bad omen for Canada, especially with an ace up its sleeve: critical minerals. Metals were not a major issue in the last CUSMA negotiations, but Canada could leverage them now. Trump\u2019s focus on dissociating from China\u2019s energy supply chain helps Ottawa make the case for a strong Canadian auto supply-chain (from nickel to cobalt, batteries and car assembly) across the 401 belt all the way to Michigan. That would ring-fence us from Trump\u2019s plans to put tariffs on any product imported to the U.S.<\/p>\n

What would Elon Musk do?: <\/strong>The billionaire Trump backer (and possibly his future government efficiency czar<\/a>), is deeply invested in the North American auto market as the head of Tesla. While the president-elect rails against China\u2019s manufacturing sector, Musk<\/a> relies heavily on the country\u2019s production base. It could lead to interesting conflicts and crosswinds, and perhaps opportunities for the Canadian auto supply chain to become a viable alternative. Ambitious, yes, but it\u2019s no time to be a wilting violet.<\/p>\n

Fuelling emissions:<\/strong> Trump\u2019s call on U.S. oil and gas producers to \u201cdrill, baby, drill,\u201d<\/a> would send U.S. emissions higher, especially in an era of rapid deregulation. He would also likely insist that Canada, America\u2019s largest source for imported oil, keep its oil spigots open to ensure affordability. That could complicate Ottawa\u2019s recently proposed oil and gas emissions cap draft (see next item below). Whoever gets to negotiates trade, climate and energy policies with the new Trump administration will need to find a new balance between Canada\u2019s ambitions and needs and a new American reality.<\/p>\n

The scrap over the cap<\/h3>\n

The federal government\u2019s draft regulations for the oil and gas greenhouse gas pollution cap<\/a> was met with predictable bemusement by Alberta<\/a>. The draft rules, possibly the most contentious Liberal climate policy, resembles its proposed framework in December 2023 of a cap and trade system.<\/p>\n