{"id":8716,"date":"2024-01-12T14:05:16","date_gmt":"2024-01-12T14:05:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/thought-leadership\/10-questions-for-a-wartime-davos\/"},"modified":"2025-05-06T04:57:10","modified_gmt":"2025-05-06T04:57:10","slug":"10-questions-for-a-wartime-davos","status":"publish","type":"rbc_tl","link":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/thought-leadership\/climate-action-institute\/expert-commentary\/10-questions-for-a-wartime-davos\/","title":{"rendered":"10 Questions For A Wartime Davos"},"content":{"rendered":"

I\u2019m headed to the World Economic Forum<\/a> next week, where the mood should be somber and hopefully a little humbler, given the amount of strife in the world. This will be my 9th time to Davos, and I don\u2019t remember so much international anxiety.<\/p>\n

Here are some the questions and ideas I\u2019m hoping to explore:<\/strong><\/p>\n

    \n
  1. Is the Gaza conflict turning into a regional war?<\/li>\n

    Hezbollah was the known risk the moment Hamas attacked Israel on Oct. 7. The Houthi front, in Yemen, is a new wildcard, as is the emerging prospect of American troops (and others) in combat. Lives and regional peace is at stake, of course. So, too, is 15% of global trade which flows through the Red Sea.<\/p>\n

  2. Is the U.S. in a fighting mood?<\/li>\n

    As Henry Kissinger was to Richard Nixon, Jake Sullivan is to Joe Biden \u2014 and he\u2019ll be in Davos, laying out his vision for American security in a ruptured world. Sullivan\u2019s presence will coincide with the Iowa caucuses back home, as we get the first signal of Donald Trump\u2019s popularity in the Republican Party. The Biden presidency has no shortage of global hotspots to carry into an election season, either as a peacemaker or pugilist.<\/p>\n

  3. Who will be the new China?<\/li>\n

    Xi Jinpeng was the cool kid (by Davos standards) in the mid-teens, as the US went into retreat and China stepped up as the new superpower. But the Chinese have barely made a peep at Davos since the pandemic, and ceded a lot of ground to other emerging powers, especially India and Saudi Arabia. Both countries have made the Forum a strategic priority, with their own pavilions, programs and swagger as they try to influence global thinking.<\/p>\n

  4. Is there a war on democracy?<\/li>\n

    More than half of the world\u2019s people go to the polls this year, making 2024 a historic moment with a record number of elections in one year (64 countries). But from Argentina to India, the struggle of democracy continues, as it seems to be in the United States. Eurasia Group lists the top risk as \u201cU.S. versus itself.\u201d The biggest name at Davos will be Donald Trump: while he won\u2019t be there, the prospects of his return to the White House has countries in many places gaming their commitment to democratic ideals.<\/p>\n

  5. Is there a war on truth?<\/li>\n

    Misinformation is one of the hot topics on this year\u2019s agenda. In fact, the Forum\u2019s annual global risk report<\/a> cites it as the top perceived risk among its members, ahead of economic and climate concerns.<\/p>\n

  6. Will there be a war on AI?<\/li>\n

    The number one topic on the Davos agenda is Artificial Intelligence, and its impact on society, jobs, health care, education and on the planet. I\u2019m looking forward to hearing what government leaders and policymakers think, and if the 2023 excitement over ChatGPT is turning into 2024 remorse about its threats.<\/p>\n

  7. Are the culture wars ending, or just beginning?<\/li>\n

    ESG is nowhere to be seen on the official Davos program, although the perennial themes around environment (climate), social (inclusion) and governance (fairness) issues are cleverly rebranded. Once lampooned as the Olympics of corporate wokism, the Forum has tried to give the stage to populist voices (not much luck) and issues. It\u2019s also dialled down the \u201cchange the world for the better\u201d mantra.<\/p>\n

  8. Is the war on inflation ebbing?<\/li>\n

    Davos draws a lot of big-time investors and money managers, and so it\u2019s a decent place to gauge the yield curve. I\u2019m hoping to get a sense of how dovish the crowd is on interest rates, knowing the Davos crowd is often wrong. The Keynesian part of crowd will be interesting, too, as government debt piles up and perhaps keeps rates from falling more.<\/p>\n

  9. Are more trade wars coming?<\/li>\n

    The Forum was established in the 1970s as a platform for free traders, to ensure economically liberal voices could be heard around the world. Today it\u2019s crowded with soft protectionists. There\u2019s Europe with its new climate tariffs to keep out products like steel from high-emitting countries, and of course the U.S. which regardless of who\u2019s in power now makes no bones about America First.<\/p>\n

  10. Can Canada be a peacemaker in a world of war?<\/li>\n

    Canada\u2019s presence at Davos has diminished since Justin Trudeau used it in 2016 to announce \u201cCanada\u2019s back.\u201d Chrystia Freeland, the deputy prime minister, will be there as a WEF board member and to push for Ukraine, among other issues. She\u2019ll have plenty else to tackle, from Israel to inflation. But a bigger question may be, what role can Canada play in such a fraught world? The archetypical peacemaker may be needed as much as ever, just in very different ways.<\/ol>\n

    You can follow my daily reports from Davos on this social channel and rbc.com\/thoughtleadership<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n