The province is doubling down on its nuclear power prowess, keeping natural gas in play and eyeing more hydro even as it plugs in more solar and wind into the grid.<\/p>\n
There\u2019s a lot to like in the provincial government\u2019s plan to meet rising long-term electricity needs. The plan to invest more in nuclear will add certainty that Ontario\u2019s electricity grid would facilitate Net Zero goals by 2050. But its reliance on natural gas in the near term could threaten short-term climate targets.<\/p>\n
Ontario\u2019s “Plan For A Clean Energy Future” signals the government\u2019s recognition that the province\u2019s economic growth depends on more clean electricity: a greener grid would help the province attract billions of dollars in transition energy investments such as electric vehicle supply chains, decarbonizing industries, energy storage, and critical minerals.
\nBut the plan falls somewhat short in putting much of the focus on the 2040s. The province\u2019s decision to maintain natural gas-fired power in the energy mix could set up a potential political dust-up with the federal government, which is poised to finalize its Clean Electricity Regulations.<\/p>\n
Our key take-aways from Ontario\u2019s clean energy plan:<\/p>\n
Demand Surge<\/strong><\/p>\n By 2050, Ontario\u2019s electricity capacity\u2014how much power the province can produce at one time\u2014is expected to more than double to 88,000 megawatts. The province will also have to replace power generation capacity of 20,000 megawatts over the next three decades. Coupled with rising population over the next few decades, Ontario will be challenged to power the grid without raising its emissions.<\/p>\n The province is also attracting unprecedented investments in electric vehicle battery manufacturing, clean steelmaking and other sectors, partly as a function of subsidies, which would strain capacity. Five major investments in the new energy economy alone will increase industrial demand by 21% once online.<\/p>\n Nuclear Renaissance<\/strong><\/p>\n Ontario is going big on new nuclear reactors to meet that demand. Plans to make Bruce Power Generating Station the world\u2019s biggest nuclear site with a 4,800-megawatt expansion, announced last week, were augmented to add three innovative small modular reactors to one announced at the Darlington nuclear site in 2021.<\/p>\n Stand-by Source <\/strong> While some gas will be needed to meet rising peaks as hot days become more frequent, there are other options that could be explored as we noted in our recent report, Power Shift, How Ontario Can Cut Its $450-Billion Electricity Bill<\/em><\/a>.<\/p>\n Facilitating Renewablese<\/strong> But as the province\u2019s grid integrates more renewables, a buildout of transmission lines will be critical to plug in power from remote sites. The province has not yet outlined a strategy to address that looming transmission challenge.<\/p>\n
\nIt’s what the province calls its \u201cinsurance policy.\u201d Natural gas will continue to play a role as the Darlington and Bruce sites undergo refurbishment over the next decade (at its peak four nuclear units representing 9% of Ontario\u2019s capacity will be offline). To that end, the province is in search of 1,500 MW of new gas generation capacity (growth of about 15%, if met). But that could upset the province\u2019s plans to cut emissions: a recent Independent Electricity System Operator (IESO) estimate foresees nearly tripling electricity sector emissions by 2030 as gas plants stand-in for nuclear power generation in the short-term.<\/p>\n
\nThe province is procuring electricity storage, which is critical if it\u2019s to deploy more cost-effective wind and solar power. It\u2019s current procurement of 2,500 MW of clean energy storage is the largest battery procurement in Canada\u2019s history. The Oneida Energy Storage Facility and Marmora Hydroelectric Pumped Storage Project are also positive developments.<\/p>\n