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Did Nations Just Mark The End Of The Oil Age In One Of The World\u2019s Wealthiest Oil Cities?<\/h2>\n
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In this week\u2019s edition: <\/strong>The world\u2014kinda, maybe\u2014agreed to move away from fossil fuels in oil town, more Canadians Googled about climate anxiety than ever before, and Ottawa sets its sight on lowering climate-fouling cow burps.<\/p>\n Climate Signals is going on a short break. We will back on Jan 12, subscribe here<\/a> to ensure you don’t miss an issue. Happy holidays!<\/em><\/p>\n Circus in the Sand: COP28 And Climate\u2019s Midlife Crisis<\/strong><\/p>\n By John Stackhouse<\/em> Did the end of the oil age just happen in one of the world\u2019s wealthiest oil cities? Or was this more diplomatic show than strategic will? Either way, the 28th Conference of the Parties to the UN climate agreement will be seen as a turning point in climate diplomacy. Perhaps a midlife crisis. Perhaps a coming of age. Here are some of the trends I spotted:<\/p>\n Climate Action Is Now Big Business: Dubai was a good metaphor for the COP conundrum, with a can-do business culture focussed on Net Zero. The host United Arab Emirates made no apologies for a business-focused conference, placing it in a massive trade park that normally houses some of the world\u2019s biggest festivals of capitalism. Many of the business leaders spent more time at lavish side conferences and events in Dubai\u2019s celebrated swanky hotels, where US$37 billion in commitments were announced, including US$7 billion for climate-smart food systems. It\u2019s About The Oil, Stupid: The COP host, Sultan al Jabbar, also runs UAE\u2019s main oil and gas company, and is a serious player in OPEC. So, it was a big deal when he kicked off the conference with a commitment from 50 oil majors, representing 40% of global production, to decarbonize by 2050, and then ended the conference with the first commitment ever by the world to transition away from fossil fuels. The when, where and how of that remain unresolved, but COP28 drew a line in the sand.<\/p>\n No, It\u2019s About Renewables: One strong sentiment at COP28 was around the irreversible rise of renewables. The conference committed to tripling renewables by 2030 while doubling energy efficiency. Wind and solar can be seen everywhere in the UAE, which fancies itself as a renewables powerhouse. Green hydrogen was also the talk of the conference. That\u2019s the hydrogen created by wind or solar power and usually converted into ammonia to be shipped to energy-hungry markets. Who will be the big supplier? The Saudis and Chinese are working together across Asia to establish an early grip, while the U.S. is considering a more ambitious hydrogen export strategy. With the right incentives to compete with fossil fuels, Texas hydrogen could be the Sino-Saudi alliance\u2019s biggest rival. And then there\u2019s Canada, with proposals in Newfoundland, Nova Scotia and Quebec. A green hydrogen race is on.<\/p>\n Or Is It About The Mix?: Energy security is not a popular expression at COP, but it\u2019s clearly top of mind for the Biden administration. Yes, John Kerry still gets most of the podium time at these conferences, with his Al Gore-inspired jabs at Big Oil. But away from the mic, other officials laid out a more pragmatic view rooted in national security. They don\u2019t want to be dependent on a single supplier of anything, which means the U.S. and its allies will need to produce a wider array of energy, even if that costs the economy a bit more. That could include a lot more nuclear: 20 countries, including Canada, came to COP to commit to tripling nuclear production by 2050. That will require 100 gigawatts of extra nuclear power\u201410 times current levels\u2014to get to Net Zero.<\/p>\n For more on John\u2019s post-COP insights, read his full dispatch from Dubai here<\/a>.<\/strong><\/p>\n Listen to the Podcast here<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n Where\u2019s the next COP?<\/strong> Baku, capital of Azerbaijan, is confirmed as the host of COP29. It was all very geopolitical: it was an Eastern European country\u2019s turn (that included former Soviet states) to host the annual UN climate summit, but Bulgaria was forced to drop out after Russia threatened to veto any bid from an EU country because of the bloc\u2019s support of Ukraine. Armenia, a fierce rival of Kremlin-neutral Azerbaijan, also withdrew partly to resolve its conflict with its bigger neighbour. The decision means the annual climate conference will be held in an autocratic fossil-fuel producing nation for the third year in a row.<\/p>\n Canadian renewables are set to bounce back after a tough few years. <\/strong>That\u2019s RBC Capital Market\u2019s 2024 forecast for an industry that\u2019s struggled due to a combination of supply chain constraints, higher interest rates and significant project cost inflation. However, a new dawn could break in 2024 as government subsidies and tax credits accelerate renewable deployment. \u201cWe believe 2024 tailwinds for the sector include lower interest rates, moderating inflation, and a slowdown in economic activity (improves labour availability),\u201d the report noted.<\/p>\n Carrots for ag, sticks for oil and gas. <\/strong>Fresh from releasing an emissions cap proposal on oil and gas, Ottawa unveiled a greenhouse gas offset credit<\/a> draft system to encourage beef cattle farmers to cut enteric methane that\u2019s emitted during the digestive process of cows and is released into the air when cows burp<\/em>. If finalized, it could prove significant as agriculture accounts for 31% of Canada\u2019s methane emissions.<\/p>\n Feeling climate-anxious?<\/strong> Google searches for climate anxiety shot up this year globally, with search queries in English around “climate anxiety”<\/a> in the first 10 months of 2023 around 27 times higher than six years ago, while searches in Chinese, Arabic and Portuguese were also on the rise. Google Trends combines eco anxiety with climate anxiety. Queries around climate change (up 120%), adaptation (up 120%), greenhouse gas emissions (up 120%) and sustainability (up 40%) were also popular over the past year.<\/p>\n CHART OF THE DAY<\/strong><\/p>\n <\/p>\n Christmas Tree Debate: Fake Or Real Fir?<\/p>\n Life cycle impact after one year prior to disposal of artificial and real Christmas trees<\/p>\n Source: RBC Climate Action Institute, Mordor Intelligence, Cognitive Market Research, PE Americas<\/p>\n We don\u2019t want to come across as the Grinch who dampened your holiday cheer, but the festive season can lead to a bit more wastefulness (or is that waist-fulness?) as we indulge and splurge more than usual. Christmas trees present themselves as decorations that could do with a bit more climate thoughtfulness. While real trees seem to be the sustainable choice\u2014if disposed of responsibly\u2014there are no wrong answers: if you prefer the artificial variety, just make sure you roll it out year after year.<\/p>\n ZEROING IN<\/strong><\/p>\n Vancouver\u2019s ranking in a global survey of top global cleantech hubs. The Toronto-Waterloo region was ranked 13th<\/sup> and Calgary was a distant 31-35th in the Startup Genome<\/a> survey. Silicon Valley, London and Amsterdam-Delta, in that order, were ranked as the world\u2019s top three cleantech hives.<\/p>\n Climate Signals is curated by Yadullah Hussain<\/strong>, Managing Editor, RBC Climate Action Institute, with contributions from the Institute\u2019s experts.<\/p>\n Your Weekly Climate Briefing<\/p>\n Sign Up<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n <\/p>\n
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\nThe business COP. The oil COP. The pragmatic COP. The sellout COP. There were almost as many labels thrown at COP28 as there were people (100,000) at the climate conference in Dubai. But one thing\u2019s for sure: the annual UN gathering may never be the same. There were electric bikes and scooters to ferry people around the vast Dubai Expo site, retractable outdoor shades to protect them from the sun and acres of indoor trade show pavilions showcasing everything the Middle East is doing in the new economy. And in the end, there was a remarkable, if flawed, agreement to push the world away from fossil fuels.<\/p>\n
\nIt\u2019s A Long Way From Paris: While the ink is still drying on the final communique, COP28 will likely be remembered as the fork in the road that started in Paris in 2015. Back then, COP21 was all about ambition as the world pledged to cut greenhouse gas emissions significantly and quickly enough to prevent catastrophic climate impacts. Progress from Paris has been patchy, as was reflected in a \u201cstocktake\u201d exercise in Dubai. The conference\u2019s theme\u2014Unite, Act, Deliver\u2014spoke to a more pragmatic tone that may soon see the world concede that the Paris goals that were updated at COP26 in Glasgow may not be possible, at least not in the time given.<\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2025\/03\/COP28_banner.png\")
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