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<\/li>\n- The Gulf Coast Gas Exporter: <\/strong>Ramp up natural gas exports to the U.S. Gulf Coast liquefied natural gas producers, which is developing a number of gas-exporting projects. The strategy may raise Canada\u2019s upstream gas sector emissions by up to 7%.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n\n
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<\/li>\n- The Strategic Exporter: <\/strong>Carve a niche in global LNG markets as a strategic supplier of stable, low-emissions gas. A handful of projects could potentially reduce global emissions by a net 105 MtCO2e\u2014roughly equivalent to Qatar\u2019s total GHG emissions, but would also raise Canadian gas sector emissions by a third assuming current technologies. However, most of the upstream gas emissions and nearly a third of LNG terminal emissions could be abated with electrification and other technologies. The strategy would attract a projected $133 billion in capital investment into the Canadian economy over 40 years.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n\n
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<\/li>\n- The West Coast Hub: <\/strong>Build out LNG capacity to its full potential, taking a more assertive role in global natural gas markets. The strategy could reduce net global emissions by as much as 211 MtCO2e but raise the Canadian sector\u2019s emissions by 66%. The strategy would attract more than $200 billion in investments.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n
Each path carries economic and climate risks that Canadian policymakers and industry must weigh. And fast. Global LNG markets are restructuring, opening fresh opportunities for West Coast projects. But that window won\u2019t be open for long.<\/p>\n
Canada’s Choices for Supporting Global Energy Security<\/h4>\n
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<\/p>\nAsia Key To Long-Term Demand As LNG Investors Eye New Investments<\/h2>\n
Getting to Net Zero requires the world to cut fossil fuel consumption, including natural gas. But we\u2019re not there yet. Even as wind and solar farms spring up around the world, LNG\u2014natural gas cooled to -162\u00b0C to 1\/600th of its original volume to ship over long distances cheaply\u2014is gaining fresh momentum. A key reason: cleaner-burning natural gas often means lower emissions than oil or coal.<\/p>\n
Europe has demonstrated LNG\u2019s value with its frantic dash to replace piped Russian gas, importing the equivalent of 10% of LNG trade in 2021, mostly from the U.S.<\/p>\n
Though the EU remains intent on transitioning to a clean energy economy, for now it\u2019s rushing to build new regasification terminals. Meanwhile, natural gas is part of the EU taxonomy for sustainable activities\u2014albeit under strict conditions including no unabated natural gas in power generation beyond 2035. If carbon capture technology for gas abatement evolves constructively, gas could be a player in European energy for longer.<\/p>\n
While gas will remain in the mix in Europe and other advanced economies for some time, it\u2019s clear that future demand will decline as these economies build cleaner energy infrastructure.<\/p>\n
Natural Gas is a cleaner-burning fossil fuel<\/h4>\n
![\"Chart:](\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2025\/03\/LNG-Charts-No-Titles_Chart-02-EN.png\")
<\/p>\nAsia, on the other hand, will have a harder time turning away from natural gas. As one of the world\u2019s biggest LNG importers, Japan is alarmed by its dependence on Russian and Middle Eastern countries as well as new export limits proposed by major LNG supplier Australia. It\u2019s encouraging the development of nuclear energy, hydrogen and natural gas as part of this year\u2019s G7 agenda.<\/p>\n
LNG will also remain an essential fuel in China, India and other populous countries of South Asia and Southeast Asia as these countries seek to meet growing energy demand while reducing a strong reliance on coal to meet climate commitments. China, India and Southeast Asia will see gas demand grow by around 44% by 2050 in the International Energy Agency\u2019s base case scenario. LNG would take the bulk of the growth with declining local pipeline-based production.<\/p>\n
But it\u2019s hardly a full-blown bull case for gas. Stunned by last year\u2019s five-fold jump in LNG prices, many Asian countries raised their coal consumption, while others pivoted to renewables, especially as the economics of switching directly from coal to clean energy in Asia improved dramatically. Non-emitting energy rollout may take a while to gain traction in Asia, but it\u2019s still a cloud hanging over the long-term gas outlook.<\/p>\n
Emerging markets driving gas demand<\/h4>\n
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<\/p>\n\nGlobal LNG markets remain tight. But gas exporters are responding to high price signals with a raft of proposed projects from LNG heavyweights, including the U.S. and Qatar.Globally, more than 100 megatonnes per annum (MTPA) of new LNG supply could be approved before 2024, adding 17% to the global LNG market. Another 1,035 MTPA are in pre-final investment decision stage, but the International Gas Union believes \u201ca fair portion\u201d are unlikely to proceed given investor focus on capital discipline and a reluctance to invest in long-term projects in an uncertain global energy market. There are also question marks hovering over Russia\u2019s new planned LNG capacity, given the spate of Western sanctions and departure of oil and gas majors from the country.<\/p>\nWith a strong market outlook in the medium term but possibly much weaker in the long-term, would 25 to 40-year Canadian LNG liquefaction capacity investments be profitable?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n