{"id":28566,"date":"2026-06-26T16:53:20","date_gmt":"2026-06-26T16:53:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/thought-leadership\/how-energy-markets-could-shape-up-post-hormuz\/"},"modified":"2026-06-26T17:26:41","modified_gmt":"2026-06-26T17:26:41","slug":"expect-more-elbows-fewer-handshakes-as-cusma-talks-heat-up","status":"publish","type":"rbc_tl","link":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/thought-leadership\/the-trade-zone\/expect-more-elbows-fewer-handshakes-as-cusma-talks-heat-up\/","title":{"rendered":"Trade Zone:\u00a0Expect more elbows, fewer handshakes, as CUSMA talks heat up"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<section class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-block  pos-rel\" style=\"border-radius:0px\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-inner-block  section-inner\" style=\"border-radius:0x\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Also in this edition:&nbsp;<\/strong>10 numbers that define Brexit\u2019s impact on the U.K. 10 years later&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 id=\"h-overheard-nbsp\" class=\"wp-block-heading has-rbc-bright-blue-color has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-c381c1edd009f03d8019ab0a83d7b028\">Overheard&nbsp;<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Expertise, not electrons, could be Canada\u2019s critical energy export<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-rbc-list is-style-blue-disc\">\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Ottawa\u2019s electricity trade debate keeps circling east-west interties and cross-border electricity flows, but Canadian&nbsp;expertise&nbsp;could be an understated export asset. One such example, called out during Canada\u2019s National Electricity Summit in Ottawa this week, was Manitoba Hydro International (revived in 2024 by the provincial utility following a three-year closure), which started selling Canadian utility&nbsp;expertise&nbsp;to more than 120 clients around the world in 1998.&nbsp;<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><strong>Canada needs to remove barriers to trade&nbsp;<em>and<\/em>&nbsp;to investment<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-rbc-list is-style-blue-disc\">\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A big takeaway from a C.D. Howe Institute roundtable this week was that&nbsp;while trade diversification is important, lowering barriers to foreign investment is just as urgent.&nbsp;Holistically reforming the country\u2019s corporate income tax system was one of the ideas that was&nbsp;floated.&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n\n\n\n<section class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-block  pos-rel\" style=\"border-radius:0px\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-inner-block  section-inner\" style=\"border-radius:0x\">\n<h2 id=\"h-what-s-nbsp-the-deal-with-cusma-nbsp\" class=\"wp-block-heading has-rbc-bright-blue-color has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-d2783a1395c84b60396fa8eee8309d67\">What\u2019s&nbsp;the deal with CUSMA?&nbsp;<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Next week, North America will cross a threshold in the Canada-U.S.-Mexico trade relationship.\u202f&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">It\u2019s&nbsp;not a cliff, but it will start a new chapter in what has been the world\u2019s most successful trade pact.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">To assess what may come next, RBC\u2019s&nbsp;<strong>John Stackhouse<\/strong>&nbsp;joined a Brookings Institution virtual roundtable this week, with policy thinkers from all three countries. One thing seemed certain: no matter how a revised CUSMA looks, the spirit of North American trade is likely to bring more elbows and fewer handshakes.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Some other takeaways:&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>1. There will be a deal:<\/strong>&nbsp;\u201cReason for optimism\u201d was a refrain, although the costs of that deal will be felt in all three countries. So, too, is timing, especially if negotiations continue after the U.S. mid-terms and into a more fractious Washington.\u202f&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>2. Get used to tariffs:<\/strong>&nbsp;Beyond the July 1 trigger for a CUSMA review, the current regime of Section 122 tariffs will expire on July 24, when we should expect the Trump administration to create another regime. Canadians need to think through a range of tariffs that could follow, from a \u201cheavy hand\u201d option of 15-25% tariffs (unlikely), to a variation of the status quo, which could carry greater border measures on digital trade. A safe bet is some form of \u201cmarket access\u201d price,&nbsp;perhaps in&nbsp;the 5% range, with plenty of exemptions.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>3. Side letters will be key:<\/strong>&nbsp;The general agreement may stay&nbsp;largely in&nbsp;place, with a host of side agreements that&nbsp;don\u2019t&nbsp;require legislation. That can be good news, as such letters can be changed more easily than a full agreement. But that risk can also apply to safeguards that Canada and Mexico may&nbsp;seek&nbsp;in side deals.\u202f&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>4. Mexico is willing to make concessions:<\/strong>&nbsp;Claudia Sheinbaum\u2019s government\u2014more overtly than Canada\u2014has made the U.S. its top trade&nbsp;priority, and&nbsp;is adopting policies to align with Washington\u2019s asks. That could include stricter rules of origin for the auto sector. Mexico is also interested in a broader framework, to address border,&nbsp;energy&nbsp;and food&nbsp;security \u202fissues&nbsp;as well as trade.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>5. Canada needs to manage internal divisions:<\/strong>&nbsp;There\u2019s&nbsp;no single Canadian economy when it comes to trade. The current 232 tariffs cover 36-37% of Canadian exports to the U.S.\u2014but 58% for Ontario and 55% for Quebec. The Maritimes,&nbsp;Saskatchewan&nbsp;and Alberta face hits of less than 10%. Canadian opinion has also hardened against a deal at any cost, in part because Canadian trust in U.S. commitments has declined.\u202f&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>6. Uncertainty is hurting investment and growth:<\/strong>&nbsp;In all three countries, businesses are hedging the borders, diversifying production to get ahead of new tariff and non-tariff measures. For Canada, there also may be some investments taking place to serve non-U.S. export markets, notably Europe and China.\u202f&nbsp;<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n\n\n\n<section class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-block  pos-rel\" style=\"border-radius:0px\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-inner-block  section-inner\" style=\"border-radius:0x\">\n<h2 id=\"h-by-the-numbers-brexit-at-10-nbsp\" class=\"wp-block-heading has-rbc-bright-blue-color has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-779c3a099a8fffb6bf14f07bd2bc5b37\">By the numbers: Brexit at 10&nbsp;<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This week marked the 10-year anniversary of the referendum that resulted in the United&nbsp;Kingdom&nbsp;leaving the European Union. A decade after the seismic&nbsp;vote,&nbsp;the ramifications are still being calculated and realized.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-rbc-list is-style-blue-disc\">\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>\u2193<\/strong>&nbsp;<strong>14%<\/strong>&nbsp;&#8211;&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk\/documents\/CBP-7851\/CBP-7851.pdf\" data-dig-id=\"LP-28566-1a7f56d8\" data-dig-category=\"LP\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-label=\"The decline in U.K.\u2019s exports of goods to the EU\" class=\"rbc-link-format\">The decline in U.K.\u2019s exports of goods to the EU<\/a>&nbsp;in 2025 compared to 2019, before the two partners signed a new trade deal. During the same period, U.K. exports to non-EU countries were down 8%.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>\u2191<\/strong> <strong>28%<\/strong>&nbsp;&#8211; The jump in U.K.\u2019s services exports to the EU compared to 2019. Exports to non-EU countries were up 26% from 2019. However, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cer.eu\/sites\/default\/files\/brexit-10years_essays_22.6.26.pdf\" data-dig-id=\"LP-28566-5c02bf89\" data-dig-category=\"LP\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-label=\"the Centre for European Reform estimates\" class=\"rbc-link-format\">the Centre for European Reform estimates<\/a>&nbsp;that service exports are still 7% lower than they would have been if the U.K. had stayed in the EU.&nbsp;<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>\u2193&nbsp;<\/strong>&nbsp;<strong>6-8%<\/strong>&nbsp;&#8211; The decline in the U.K.\u2019s GDP growth by the end of 2025 due to Brexit, according to a study from the&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.nber.org\/system\/files\/working_papers\/w34459\/w34459.pdf\" data-dig-id=\"LP-28566-e9156539\" data-dig-category=\"LP\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-label=\"National Bureau of Economic Research\" class=\"rbc-link-format\">National Bureau of Economic Research<\/a>.&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-dots dots\" \/>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" height=\"593\" width=\"1024\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2026\/06\/TZ-6.26-GDP-UK-Chart.png?quality=80&amp;w=1024\" alt=\"Brexit, 10 years on: U.K. GDP per capita has lagged some peers\" class=\"wp-image-28575\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2026\/06\/TZ-6.26-GDP-UK-Chart.png 4000w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2026\/06\/TZ-6.26-GDP-UK-Chart.png?resize=300,174 300w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2026\/06\/TZ-6.26-GDP-UK-Chart.png?resize=768,444 768w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2026\/06\/TZ-6.26-GDP-UK-Chart.png?resize=1024,593 1024w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2026\/06\/TZ-6.26-GDP-UK-Chart.png?resize=1536,889 1536w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2026\/06\/TZ-6.26-GDP-UK-Chart.png?resize=2048,1185 2048w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-dots dots\" \/>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u2193<strong>&nbsp;<\/strong>&nbsp;<strong>5-10%<\/strong>&nbsp;&#8211; The U.K.\u2019s GDP per capita growth was between 5% and 10% less than other similar countries between Brexit and the end of 2025, NBER also estimates.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u2193&nbsp;&nbsp;<strong>13%<\/strong>&nbsp;&#8211; The decline in the U.K. business investment. Another study suggested U.K. firms invest just 11.1% cent of GDP, with only Canada lower in the G7.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>16%<\/strong>&nbsp;&#8211; The share of businesses reporting that Brexit was an important source of uncertainty as of Sept. 2025. It was as high as 40% shortly after the U.K. left the EU.&nbsp;<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>39&nbsp;<\/strong>\u2013&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2026\/06\/23\/business\/brexit-uk-economy.html\" data-dig-id=\"LP-28566-95fea346\" data-dig-category=\"LP\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-label=\"The number of trade deals Britain\" class=\"rbc-link-format\">The number of trade deals Britain<\/a>&nbsp;has signed covering 72 countries since Brexit. Still, while the U.K.\u2019s trading relationship with the EU fundamentally changed post-Brexit, the bloc&nbsp;remains&nbsp;the&nbsp;U.K\u2019s&nbsp;largest trading partner.&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-dots dots\" \/>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" height=\"589\" width=\"1024\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2026\/06\/TZ-6.26-Brexit-vote-Chart.png?quality=80&amp;w=1024\" alt=\"The U.K. feeling a bit of &quot;Bregret&quot; 10 years after Brexit - chart\" class=\"wp-image-28583\" style=\"aspect-ratio:1.741516303048019;width:1024px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2026\/06\/TZ-6.26-Brexit-vote-Chart.png 4000w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2026\/06\/TZ-6.26-Brexit-vote-Chart.png?resize=300,173 300w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2026\/06\/TZ-6.26-Brexit-vote-Chart.png?resize=768,442 768w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2026\/06\/TZ-6.26-Brexit-vote-Chart.png?resize=1024,589 1024w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2026\/06\/TZ-6.26-Brexit-vote-Chart.png?resize=1536,883 1536w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2026\/06\/TZ-6.26-Brexit-vote-Chart.png?resize=2048,1178 2048w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-dots dots\" \/>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>57%<\/strong>&nbsp;&#8211; Of respondents said Britain was wrong to leave the EU&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.whatukthinks.org\/eu\/questions\/in-highsight-do-you-think-britain-was-right-or-wrong-to-vote-to-leave-the-eu\/\" data-dig-id=\"LP-28566-76b1d66d\" data-dig-category=\"LP\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-label=\"in a recent poll.\" class=\"rbc-link-format\">in a recent poll.<\/a>&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>41%<\/strong>&nbsp;&#8211; The EU accounted for 41% of the U.K.\u2019s exports, and 50% of the U.K.\u2019s imports.&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>6&nbsp;<\/strong>&#8211; The number of Prime Ministers the U.K. has had since the referendum. Former Greater Manchester major Andy Burnham is expected to become the seventh PM since Brexit.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-dots dots\" \/>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" height=\"456\" width=\"1024\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2026\/06\/TZ-6.26-Prime-Ministers-Timeline-Infographic.png?quality=80&amp;w=1024\" alt=\"A revolving door at 10 downing street\" class=\"wp-image-28577\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2026\/06\/TZ-6.26-Prime-Ministers-Timeline-Infographic.png 4000w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2026\/06\/TZ-6.26-Prime-Ministers-Timeline-Infographic.png?resize=300,134 300w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2026\/06\/TZ-6.26-Prime-Ministers-Timeline-Infographic.png?resize=768,342 768w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2026\/06\/TZ-6.26-Prime-Ministers-Timeline-Infographic.png?resize=1024,456 1024w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2026\/06\/TZ-6.26-Prime-Ministers-Timeline-Infographic.png?resize=1536,684 1536w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2026\/06\/TZ-6.26-Prime-Ministers-Timeline-Infographic.png?resize=2048,912 2048w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-dots dots\" \/>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Plus: 10 numbers that define Brexit\u2019s impact on the U.K. 10 years later <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":89,"featured_media":28569,"parent":0,"menu_order":0,"template":"","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"disable_focal_point":false,"featured_image_focal_point":{"x":0.73,"y":0.76},"advgb_blocks_editor_width":"","advgb_blocks_columns_visual_guide":"","editor_notices":[],"footnotes":""},"rbc_tl_category":[198,207],"rbc_tl_tag":[],"class_list":["post-28566","rbc_tl","type-rbc_tl","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","rbc_tl_category-the-trade-hub","rbc_tl_category-the-trade-zone"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.7 (Yoast SEO v27.7) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Trade Zone:\u00a0Expect more elbows, fewer handshakes, as CUSMA talks heat up - RBC<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Plus: 10 numbers that define Brexit\u2019s impact on the U.K. 10 years later\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, 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