{"id":28514,"date":"2026-06-19T20:55:03","date_gmt":"2026-06-19T20:55:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/thought-leadership\/trade-zone-canadas-infrastructure-comeback\/"},"modified":"2026-06-19T20:55:41","modified_gmt":"2026-06-19T20:55:41","slug":"how-energy-markets-could-shape-up-post-hormuz","status":"publish","type":"rbc_tl","link":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/thought-leadership\/the-trade-zone\/how-energy-markets-could-shape-up-post-hormuz\/","title":{"rendered":"Trade Zone:\u00a0How energy markets could shape up post-Hormuz"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<section class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-block  pos-rel\" style=\"border-radius:0px\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-inner-block  section-inner\" style=\"border-radius:0x\">\n<h2 id=\"h-overheard-nbsp\" class=\"wp-block-heading has-rbc-bright-blue-color has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-c381c1edd009f03d8019ab0a83d7b028\">Overheard&nbsp;<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>U.S.-Mexico trade talks have worsened over security issues&nbsp;<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-rbc-list is-style-blue-disc\">\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">While talks between the U.S. and Mexico appear to be progressing, impasses have surfaced over security concerns, particularly extraterritorial U.S. operations to combat drug cartels.&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Chinese EVs remain a major irritant for the U.S.&nbsp;in trade talks with Canada&nbsp;<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-rbc-list is-style-blue-disc\">\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">It was no mistake that Prime Minister Mark Carney used his moment with President Donald Trump at the G7 Summit to explain the cap on the deal.&nbsp;Behind closed doors,&nbsp;a group of American policymakers&nbsp;remain&nbsp;highly concerned&nbsp;about the entry of China into strategic areas of the North American economy.&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Government continues to align foreign and trade policies<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-rbc-list is-style-blue-disc\">\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Foreign&nbsp;Minister Anita Anand&nbsp;will take&nbsp;T\u00fcrkiye\u2019s&nbsp;foreign minister&nbsp;to&nbsp;a nuclear SMR facility in Darlington&nbsp;next week.&nbsp;Another sign&nbsp;that&nbsp;energy is&nbsp;increasingly&nbsp;a pillar of foreign policy.&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n\n\n\n<section class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-block  pos-rel\" style=\"border-radius:0px\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-inner-block  section-inner\" style=\"border-radius:0x\">\n<h2 id=\"h-how-energy-nbsp-markets-nbsp-could-shape-nbsp-up-nbsp-post-hormuz-nbsp\" class=\"wp-block-heading has-rbc-bright-blue-color has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-7c0713ba05ecf65281cd4b3d5fe7e38d\">How energy&nbsp;markets&nbsp;could shape&nbsp;up&nbsp;post-Hormuz&nbsp;<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">While&nbsp;hostilities between Iran and the U.S. appear to be subsiding,&nbsp;the re-opening&nbsp;of the Strait of Hormuz&nbsp;will continue to shape trade flows in the days, months, and years ahead.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 id=\"h-why-it-matters-an-nbsp-mou-nbsp-is-nbsp-signed-but-the-strait-nbsp-isn-t-nbsp-solved-nbsp\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">Why it matters\u2014an&nbsp;MoU&nbsp;is&nbsp;signed, but the Strait&nbsp;isn\u2019t&nbsp;solved&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\" id=\"h-\">The&nbsp;Washington-Tehran memorandum of understanding&nbsp;guarantees toll-free passage for&nbsp;60 days&nbsp;only, followed by negotiations with Oman to define the future administration of the waterway.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Red Sea&nbsp;serves as&nbsp;a&nbsp;cautionary tale.&nbsp;In&nbsp;July&nbsp;2024,&nbsp;a&nbsp;deal was struck with the Houthis, and Bab el-Mandeb&nbsp;Strait&nbsp;traffic\u2014in the Arabian Peninsula\u2014has not returned to&nbsp;early&nbsp;2024&nbsp;levels. Reopening&nbsp;of the Hormuz&nbsp;will be a difficult logistical process regardless of when it starts;&nbsp;with&nbsp;more than 500 vessels stranded in the Persian Gulf, mines to clear, and insurers to convince. Peak Hormuz flows may be behind us. \u201cThe vase is broken,\u201d said IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol. \u201cNow all actors know that the Strait of Hormuz was closed once and it can be shut down again.\u201d&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 id=\"h-by-the-numbers-resilience-and-its-limits-nbsp\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">By the numbers \u2014 resilience, and its limits&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The oil market proved more resilient than&nbsp;most&nbsp;forecasts. Brent peaked at&nbsp;roughly&nbsp;US$126&nbsp;per barrel\u2014a significant shock, but far below the&nbsp;US$200 worst-case scenarios circulated at the height of the crisis.&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The reason was adaptation, with a&nbsp;parallel&nbsp;logistics&nbsp;system&nbsp;emerging&nbsp;in real time.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-rbc-list is-style-blue-disc\">\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">U.S.&nbsp;crude exports surged to&nbsp;more than&nbsp;6 million barrels per day&nbsp;(bpd)&nbsp;<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Dark-tanker transits climbed to&nbsp;roughly 3&nbsp;million bpd&nbsp;by early June, with cargoes shuttled by ship-to-ship transfer in the Gulf of Oman&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Alternative&nbsp;Saudi and UAE pipelines absorbed what they could,&nbsp;which was meaningful even though&nbsp;short of pre-crisis Hormuz volumes&nbsp;<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Kpler&nbsp;estimates more than 90 million barrels of non-Iranian crude and a further 70 million barrels of Iranian crude are now waiting to leave the region\u2014a significant near-term overhang as the Strait reopens.&nbsp;<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">But&nbsp;even&nbsp;resilience has&nbsp;a limit, and it&nbsp;is&nbsp;grade. Asian refiners,&nbsp;built for heavy sour Middle Eastern crude,&nbsp;spent the quarter force-feeding light sweet American barrels as a stopgap.&nbsp;The Hormuz&nbsp;gap was more&nbsp;around&nbsp;heavy&nbsp;oil and LNG&nbsp;shipments.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 id=\"h-the-bigger-picture-buyers-nbsp-won-t-nbsp-unlearn-concentration-risk-nbsp\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">The bigger picture\u2014buyers&nbsp;won\u2019t&nbsp;unlearn concentration risk&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Concerns are shifting to a&nbsp;near-term&nbsp;supply&nbsp;glut as trapped Gulf barrels flood&nbsp;the market.&nbsp;The IEA&nbsp;expects a significant crude overhang by 2027 if peace holds.&nbsp;Still,&nbsp;a&nbsp;key learning&nbsp;is that&nbsp;oil markets&nbsp;remain&nbsp;remarkably resilient. When the system was under genuine stress, it&nbsp;adapted&nbsp;through shadow infrastructure, bypass routing, and emergency substitution.&nbsp;Some of&nbsp;this&nbsp;was&nbsp;ad-hoc, but some&nbsp;was&nbsp;planned years, if not decades,&nbsp;ago (such as&nbsp;Chinese strategic reserves,&nbsp;and&nbsp;the&nbsp;Saudi East-West pipeline).&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">These themes were&nbsp;discussed&nbsp;at&nbsp;RBC\u2019s Global Energy, Power and Infrastructure Conference in New York this month, where access to global markets was the biggest topic&nbsp;among Canadian producers and importers\u2014with buyers&nbsp;in&nbsp;Asia, and&nbsp;one in&nbsp;Germany&nbsp;cited as anchors for Canadian LNG projects&nbsp;in&nbsp;both the Atlantic and Pacific basins. Importing nations are chasing supply security and portfolio diversification, with a willingness to&nbsp;sew up new&nbsp;contracts&nbsp;running well ahead of the industry\u2019s willingness to sanction new supply.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 id=\"h-bottom-line-a-ceasefire-changes-the-headline-not-the-lesson-nbsp\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">Bottom line \u2014 a ceasefire changes the headline, not the lesson&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Canada, with&nbsp;one&nbsp;proposed cross-border crude&nbsp;pipeline targeting a mid-2027 final investment decision, TMX volumes already moving west, and West Coast LNG coming online,&nbsp;has meaningful volumes in the near to mid-term.&nbsp;The market&nbsp;will watch the&nbsp;Strait, but the&nbsp;next generation&nbsp;of trade&nbsp;will come from future&nbsp;agreements,&nbsp;which&nbsp;could&nbsp;increasingly include Canada.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u2014<strong>Shaz Merwat<\/strong>, Energy Policy Lead&nbsp;<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n\n\n\n<section class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-block  pos-rel\" style=\"border-radius:0px\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-inner-block  section-inner\" style=\"border-radius:0x\">\n<h2 id=\"h-what-cusma-means-for-food-affordability-nbsp\" class=\"wp-block-heading has-rbc-bright-blue-color has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-50f0bd78dbc135650e69fcb808d58aaa\">What CUSMA means for food affordability&nbsp;<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">New&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/agforusmca.com\/file\/11\/Effect_of_North-American-Trade_on_US_Food_Prices_2026.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">research<\/a>&nbsp;out of Purdue University illustrates the benefits to food prices of the trade deal now known as the United States-Canada-Mexico agreement and the costs if its dismantled. The&nbsp;<em>USMCA Affordability Study: The Effect of North American Trade on U.S. Food Prices&nbsp;<\/em>aims to quantify the effect of North American free trade agreements on U.S. food prices, and<em>&nbsp;<\/em>outlines a scenario where NAFTA was not implemented and historical tariff rates remained fixed. It concludes:&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-rbc-list is-style-blue-disc\">\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">For every percentage point in reduced tariff rates, there was a cumulative food price reduction of 2.8% over a 10-year period.&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Food prices were 12% lower by 2014 than they would have been in the no-NAFTA scenario, saving average households at the time approximately US$500 a year.&nbsp;<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Reversing the trade agreements would unwind those gains. And since U.S. agri-food imports from Canada and Mexico have grown significantly since the studied period, American consumers could be hit with much higher grocery bills at a time when budgets are already strained.&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Following the tariff reductions, key U.S. export commodities such as wheat, corn, and beef products did not see a rise in domestic prices that stronger export demand would normally predict. This is suggestive of how interconnected the North American food supply chains have become.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Food affordability is already weighing heavily on household budgets in Canada and the U.S. New tariffs or trade restrictions emerging out of the upcoming negotiations could undo decades of food supply chain integrations and deepen pressure on consumers.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u2014<strong>Wilson Fink<\/strong>, Agriculture Policy Lead&nbsp;<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n\n\n\n<section class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-block  pos-rel\" style=\"border-radius:0px\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-inner-block  section-inner\" style=\"border-radius:0x\">\n<h2 id=\"h-more-car-trouble-nbsp\" class=\"wp-block-heading has-rbc-bright-blue-color has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-5d0fa13cc7278eff0133007d07442abc\">More car trouble&nbsp;<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\" id=\"h-the-week-that-was\">On the hunt for domestic investment, M\u00e9lanie Joly was in China this week pressing Chinese automakers to build in Canada, not just sell. Shoring up investment in Canada\u2019s battered auto industry is necessary, but there are multiple crises on the horizon.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 id=\"h-trapped-between-two-auto-giants\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">Trapped between two auto giants\u00a0<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Canada&nbsp;is&nbsp;in&nbsp;a tight&nbsp;squeeze in&nbsp;CUSMA negotiations. Section 232 tariffs aim to make Canadian assembly too expensive, threatening one of Canada\u2019s largest export industries unless removed. Meanwhile, China eyes Canada as its North American beachhead\u2014BYD already secured quota approval, with Chery and Geely racing for their slice of the 49,000-unit imports.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The dynamics are stark: China wants Canadian consumers, America wants Canadian assembly jobs. Canada&#8217;s 125,000-strong auto workforce is caught in the crosshairs.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">But here&#8217;s what everyone&#8217;s missing in this tug-of-war: while Canada struggles to secure its share of North American assembly, rising vehicle prices&nbsp;are&nbsp;pushing more consumers out of the new vehicle market altogether, compressing demand while the global auto industry is facing over-capacity issues.&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 id=\"h-the-affordability-trap-no-one-s-watching\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">The affordability trap no one\u2019s watching<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" height=\"586\" width=\"1024\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2026\/06\/TZ-6.19.26-Auto.png?quality=80&amp;w=1024\" alt=\"Canada&apos;s motor vehicle market: rising prices, declining demand\" class=\"wp-image-28525\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2026\/06\/TZ-6.19.26-Auto.png 4000w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2026\/06\/TZ-6.19.26-Auto.png?resize=300,172 300w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2026\/06\/TZ-6.19.26-Auto.png?resize=768,440 768w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2026\/06\/TZ-6.19.26-Auto.png?resize=1024,586 1024w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2026\/06\/TZ-6.19.26-Auto.png?resize=1536,879 1536w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2026\/06\/TZ-6.19.26-Auto.png?resize=2048,1172 2048w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Vehicle prices have structural headwinds that make tariffs particularly dangerous. SUVs and pickups, which are more expensive than sedans and compact vehicles, already dominate sales. Ever-more tech features also pump up the price tag. When we layer tariffs on vehicles, steel, and aluminum, affordability doesn&#8217;t just suffer\u2014it tanks.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Canadian numbers illustrate the trend: 1.92 million new vehicles sold in 2024, down 160,000 units from 2017 despite 4.3 million more driving-age residents in Canada. Population-adjusted sales have collapsed more than 20% since the 1980s while average vehicle prices have cruised 60% higher after inflation.&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The pattern repeats stateside\u2014there are 20 million more Americans today than 10 years ago, but vehicle sales&nbsp;<em>fell<\/em>&nbsp;from 17.4 million units in 2015 to 16.4 million in 2025. As the price of vehicles rise, buyers will be pushed into the resale market.&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 id=\"h-bottom-line\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">Bottom line\u00a0<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Higher prices don&#8217;t just hurt consumers\u2014they kill the very jobs these policies aim to protect. Fewer purchases mean reduced demand, worsening oversupply, and ultimately eliminating assembly positions across North America.&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">(For more on North America\u2019s auto industry, read our latest report:&nbsp;<em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/thought-leadership\/the-growth-project\/steering-through-uncertainty-four-future-paths-for-canadas-auto-industry\/\" data-dig-id=\"LP-28514-9a43d06e\" data-dig-category=\"LP\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-label=\"Steering Through Uncertainty\" class=\"rbc-link-format\">Steering Through Uncertainty<\/a><\/em>)&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u2014<strong>Jordan Brennan<\/strong>, Managing Director, RBC Thought Leadership<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Plus: What CUSMA means for food affordability and the auto industry\u2019s demand challenge <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":89,"featured_media":28527,"parent":0,"menu_order":0,"template":"","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"disable_focal_point":false,"featured_image_focal_point":{"x":0.49,"y":0.5},"advgb_blocks_editor_width":"","advgb_blocks_columns_visual_guide":"","editor_notices":[],"footnotes":""},"rbc_tl_category":[198,207],"rbc_tl_tag":[],"class_list":["post-28514","rbc_tl","type-rbc_tl","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","rbc_tl_category-the-trade-hub","rbc_tl_category-the-trade-zone"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.7 (Yoast SEO v27.7) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Trade Zone:\u00a0How energy markets could shape up post-Hormuz - RBC<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Plus: What CUSMA means for food affordability and the auto industry\u2019s demand challenge\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, 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