{"id":26210,"date":"2026-04-10T17:09:46","date_gmt":"2026-04-10T17:09:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/?post_type=rbc_tl&#038;p=26210\/"},"modified":"2026-04-10T18:41:46","modified_gmt":"2026-04-10T18:41:46","slug":"a-cusma-signal-amid-the-noise","status":"publish","type":"rbc_tl","link":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/thought-leadership\/the-trade-zone\/a-cusma-signal-amid-the-noise\/","title":{"rendered":"Trade Zone: A CUSMA signal, amid the noise"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<section class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-block  pos-rel\" style=\"border-radius:0px\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-inner-block  section-inner\" style=\"border-radius:0x\">\n<p>Earlier this week, U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer clarified what had been building for months: the U.S. will seek to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/business\/article-usmca-talks-separate-protocols-jamieson-greer\/\">keep the <\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/business\/article-usmca-talks-separate-protocols-jamieson-greer\/\" data-dig-id=\"LP-26210-ba8bc631\" data-dig-category=\"LP\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-label=\"core of CUSMA intact\" class=\"rbc-link-format\">core of CUSMA intact<\/a> but negotiate new and bifurcated terms with Canada and Mexico. <strong>&nbsp;<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Under the CUSMA status quo, different terms do currently exist for Canada and Mexico with the U.S. But Greer\u2019s comments represent a material shift, one that widens the scope of issues under examination in the Canada-U.S. economic relationship and will fundamentally change how it is governed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>A deal with many strings attached<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-rbc-list is-style-blue-disc\">\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>By negotiating bilateral grievances under parallel agreements with Canada and Mexico, Washington is predicating market access for the two countries on outcomes across multiple files, rather than a single, fixed set of rules.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>For instance, rather than locking in a 16-year extension, Greer indicated that the U.S. is likely to trigger a process of annual reviews that can run for up to a decade\u2013keeping the agreement in force, but under continuous pressure of renegotiation.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>Practically, that means trade policy becomes more iterative. Outcomes on tariffs, procurement, digital rules, dispute resolution, or enforcement will not be settled once but revisited as negotiations evolve.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>Politically, Greer is foreshadowing that it\u2019s impossible to neatly resolve this all by the July 1<sup>st<\/sup> deadline, where instead he can now announce that the core protocols of CUSMA remain in place while thornier issues continue to be hashed out in expanded side agreements.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>Additionally, with the current unpredictability in energy markets, Greer may have been looking to assure investors that the integrated North American energy market will continue with some semblance of a process in place.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>Steve Verheul, Canada\u2019s former chief trade negotiator, <a href=\"https:\/\/financialpost.com\/news\/economy\/time-canada-usmca-talks-trade-chief\" data-dig-id=\"LP-26210-bfe873c4\" data-dig-category=\"LP\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-label=\"noted\" class=\"rbc-link-format\">noted<\/a> that the war on Iran has strained America\u2019s supply chains across energy, aluminium, fertilizers\u2014commodities that Canada could help supply, giving Ottawa some leverage.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>The central question is about a baseline market access tariff<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-rbc-list is-style-blue-disc\">\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>The most important issue is whether the U.S. introduces a broad market access tariff and, if so, what\u2019s the number.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>Many on the Canadian side argue anything above 5% would be unacceptable. But the U.S. may look to push for as high as 10%, albeit this would likely come with significant carveouts and exemptions.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>A baseline market access tariff would have broader implications for the Canadian economy than the more concentrated effects the sector-specific Section 232 tariffs have had, as demonstrated in RBC Economics latest report: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/canadian-analysis\/featured-analysis\/insights\/one-year-of-tariff-shocks-in-canada-what-we-learned\/\" data-dig-id=\"LP-26210-5e01b69c\" data-dig-category=\"LP\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-label=\"One year of tariff shocks in Canada\" class=\"rbc-link-format\">One year of tariff shocks in Canada<\/a>.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Beyond trade: a more strategic negotiation<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-rbc-list is-style-blue-disc\">\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>Prior to Greer\u2019s comments, the USTR also released its annual <a href=\"https:\/\/ustr.gov\/sites\/default\/files\/files\/Press\/Releases\/2026\/National Trade Estimate Report 2026.pdf\" data-dig-id=\"LP-26210-ad7c7c80\" data-dig-category=\"LP\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-label=\"National Trade Estimate Report\" class=\"rbc-link-format\">National Trade Estimate Report<\/a> on March 31<sup>st<\/sup>, listing what it deems as \u201csignificant foreign trade barriers\u201d for partners, including Canada.&nbsp;<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>Most of the irritants listed aren\u2019t surprising, they are becoming increasingly central to negotiations.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>Because of Trump\u2019s trade war, some of these gripes have evolved and expanded, including provincial liquor stores no longer stocking U.S. alcohol.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>Others cut into how Canada structures parts of its economy: increased \u201cBuy Canadian\u201d procurement provisions, dairy supply management, digital and streaming regulations, and newfound sovereign data ambitions.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>Adding to that is the U.S.\u2019s strategic ambition with respect to critical minerals. Canada\u2019s level of participation in those ambitions will be a key issue, as <a href=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/thought-leadership\/the-trade-zone\/will-canada-get-keys-to-the-vault\/\" data-dig-id=\"LP-26210-f4088db0\" data-dig-category=\"LP\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-label=\"we discussed in February\" class=\"rbc-link-format\">we discussed in February<\/a>.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>The timeline ahead and how it impacts strategy<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-rbc-list is-style-blue-disc\">\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>June 1<sup>st<\/sup>: Greer must report to Congress on the administration\u2019s intent\u2013whether to extend CUSMA as is or pursue changes.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>July 1<sup>st<\/sup>: Canada, Mexico, and the U.S. will meet formally for the six-year review built into the agreement, at which point the U.S. likely pushes to shift towards a 10-year framework of annual reviews.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>The U.S. is positioning for a sustained model of negotiation under the rolling review, where it can continue to exert leverage on unresolved issues.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>One of Ottawa\u2019s objectives, in addition to ultimately maintaining favourable, broad access to the U.S. market, is to push decisions on priority files as close to the mid-term elections as possible, without jeopardizing the entire agreement.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>&#8211;Thomas Ashcroft, Global Policy Issues Lead<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n\n\n\n<section class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-block  pos-rel\" style=\"border-radius:0px\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-inner-block  section-inner\" style=\"border-radius:0x\">\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-rbc-bright-blue-color has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-702306a97d823c6dd7443735b3770d08\" id=\"h-tariff-toll\">Tariff Toll<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>It\u2019s been a year since Donald Trump stood in the Rose Garden at the White House and announced his government\u2019s \u201cLiberation Day\u201d tariffs. This week, our colleagues at RBC Economics took a close look at the impact of those tariffs. Here are a couple of the key takeaways (click on the links for plenty more analysis):<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Canada: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/canadian-analysis\/featured-analysis\/insights\/one-year-of-tariff-shocks-in-canada-what-we-learned\/\" data-dig-id=\"LP-26210-31425306\" data-dig-category=\"LP\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-label=\"One year of tariff shocks in Canada: What we learned\" class=\"rbc-link-format\">One year of tariff shocks in Canada: What we learned<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-rbc-list is-style-blue-disc\">\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>Despite heightened trade tension, Canada was still the largest source of imports for 22 American states last year, unchanged from 2024.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>Canada\u2019s limited retaliatory measures minimized the trade war\u2019s impact on consumer prices in Canada.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>Since the U.S. tariffs on Canadian goods are targeted, the impact has been uneven across the country.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<div id=\"everviz-psh0llyWe\" class=\"everviz-psh0llyWe\" data-view=\"graph\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>The U.S.: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/us-analysis\/us-featured-analysis\/one-year-later-how-us-tariffs-and-trade-policy-have-reshaped-the-landscape\/\" data-dig-id=\"LP-26210-44294bd7\" data-dig-category=\"LP\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-label=\"One year later: How U.S. tariffs and trade policy have reshaped the landscape\" class=\"rbc-link-format\">One year later: How U.S. tariffs and trade policy have reshaped the landscape<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-rbc-list is-style-blue-disc\">\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>Tariffs have not reduced trade imbalances, particularly with China.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>Tariffs revenue has little impact on reducing the deficit\u2014for one thing, they don\u2019t come close to making up for the Big Beautiful Bill tax cuts.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>There is no evidence that tariff policy has led to a reshoring of manufacturing jobs.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"731\" height=\"626\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2026\/04\/US-Trade-Apr-2026-Chart-6-2.png?quality=80\" alt=\"Domestic payrolls mask a deep and sustained contraction in trade-exposed industries\" class=\"wp-image-26248\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2026\/04\/US-Trade-Apr-2026-Chart-6-2.png 731w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2026\/04\/US-Trade-Apr-2026-Chart-6-2.png?resize=300,257 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 731px) 100vw, 731px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<section class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-block  pos-rel\" style=\"border-radius:0px\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-inner-block  section-inner\" style=\"border-radius:0x\">\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-rbc-bright-blue-color has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-8d9540493872a203d39d53b653f444bc\" id=\"h-making-headlines\">Making headlines<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-rbc-list is-style-blue-disc\">\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>The shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz is <strong>forcing Japan to release <a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/business\/energy\/trump-warns-iran-hormuz-tolls-energy-crunch-prompts-japan-release-more-oil-2026-04-10\/\" data-dig-id=\"LP-26210-65c4d162\" data-dig-label=\"20 days\u2019 worth of oil\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-category=\"LP\" class=\"rbc-link-format\">20 days\u2019 worth of oil<\/a><\/strong> planned for May.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>Despite heightened tensions between the U.S. and the European Union on several files, <strong>a deal on <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/newsletters\/2026-04-10\/eu-and-us-advance-critical-minerals-deal-to-curb-china-dominance?srnd=phx-economics-v2\" data-dig-id=\"LP-26210-cf23640a\" data-dig-category=\"LP\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-label=\"critical minerals\" class=\"rbc-link-format\">critical minerals<\/a><\/strong>, as part of an effort to lessen their reliance on China, is bringing the two together.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>Global <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2026-04-10\/taiwan-exports-surge-to-record-as-ai-demand-outweighs-iran-woes\" data-dig-id=\"LP-26210-d516cf51\" data-dig-category=\"LP\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-label=\"demand for AI chips\" class=\"rbc-link-format\">demand for AI chips<\/a> <strong>drove Taiwan\u2019s exports in March (up almost 61% year-on-year) to an all-time high.<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p><strong>International Monetary Fund plans to cut its global growth forecast. <\/strong>\u201cBuckle up,\u201d the IMF\u2019s chief <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2026-04-07\/imf-chief-warns-world-is-ill-equipped-to-counter-iran-war-risks\" data-dig-id=\"LP-26210-b35b20ec\" data-dig-category=\"LP\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-label=\"Kristalina Georgieva\" class=\"rbc-link-format\">Kristalina Georgieva<\/a> said, noting that the world is ill-equipped to respond to the shocks of the war in Iran.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Plus, the impact of President Trump\u2019s \u201cLiberation Day\u201d tariffs, one year on<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":89,"featured_media":26224,"parent":0,"menu_order":0,"template":"","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"disable_focal_point":true,"featured_image_focal_point":{"x":0.5,"y":0.5},"advgb_blocks_editor_width":"","advgb_blocks_columns_visual_guide":"","footnotes":""},"rbc_tl_category":[207],"rbc_tl_tag":[],"class_list":["post-26210","rbc_tl","type-rbc_tl","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","rbc_tl_category-the-trade-zone"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.2 (Yoast SEO v27.2) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Trade Zone: A CUSMA signal, amid the noise - RBC<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Plus, the impact of President Trump\u2019s \u201cLiberation Day\u201d tariffs, one year on\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" 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