{"id":25529,"date":"2026-03-06T21:18:26","date_gmt":"2026-03-06T21:18:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/?post_type=rbc_tl&p=25529\/"},"modified":"2026-03-09T16:53:58","modified_gmt":"2026-03-09T16:53:58","slug":"the-carney-doctrine-a-capital-first-strategy","status":"publish","type":"rbc_tl","link":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/thought-leadership\/the-trade-zone\/the-carney-doctrine-a-capital-first-strategy\/","title":{"rendered":"Trade Zone: The Carney Doctrine\u2013a capital-first strategy"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
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Also in this edition: <\/strong>A conversation with Canada\u2019s Foreign Affairs Minister Anita Anand, key takeaways from PDAC, and the Iran conflict\u2019s impact on global oil supply and prices<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Canada\u2019s new capital-first strategy<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

If trade and investment are two sides of the same coin, Canada for a good while has been calling on trade when the coin was flipped. The Carney Doctrine\u2014whenever it\u2019s written\u2014shows a new preference for investment. No capital, no bananas.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The prime minister signalled a capital-first inclination in his lightning tour of Asia this week, as he covered 30,000 kilometres, three countries and $5.5 billion in deals faster than the Toronto Maple Leafs can win a game. The messages in Mumbai, Sydney and Tokyo\u2014three of the world\u2019s key capital markets centres\u2014is that Canada needs and wants capital. Not a lot of symbolic trade MOUs on this junket.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Carney\u2019s Indo-Pacific initiatives focussed on capital flows, industrial partnerships, and supply chain integration across sectors such as critical minerals, semiconductors, AI, defence manufacturing, and energy security. From a distance, it looked more like a PE road show than a trade mission. Example: IFM, an infrastructure investment behemoth owned by Australian pension funds, declared its intention to invest up to $10 billion in Canada. That matters because more infrastructure in the two countries will enable more trade.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Back home, some subtler changes added to the trend toward global capital as the precursor to trade. A shakeup at Global Affairs was the latest sign that foreign policy is now rooted in the PMO. The Prime Minister and his top bureaucrat, Michael Sabia, also hired Glenn Purves as deputy minister of international trade. Purves is a long-time bureaucrat who had worked under Sabia before heading to the private sector early last year as head of macro research at BlackRock\u2019s Investment Institute. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Putting a capital markets guy atop the trade service is a signal: capital first. Purves now has his own global infrastructure, too, through trade commissions, to ensure Carney\u2019s capital calls are met. Somewhere on that PMO in the Sky, the Prime Minister keeps a tally of commitments made, and commitments delivered. Call it the new balance of trade. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

–<\/strong> John Stackhouse<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n\n\n\n

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Turning off the tap<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of the world’s oil passes, is a key transit point for many energy-import dependent Asian countries. China, by a wide margin, tops that list.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Since the Iran conflict started, commercial shipments of crude and natural gas have slowed to a \u201cnear-total<\/a>\u201d pause. And the price is climbing\u2014fast. Brent Crude futures crossed US$90 a barrel, the highest in almost two years, leading to fears of higher prices at the pumps and spiking inflation. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2013Farhad Panahov<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n\n\n\n

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Critical conversations: 7 takeaways from PDAC<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

This year\u2019s Prospectors & Developers Association of Canada (PDAC) event in Toronto was abuzz with talk of Canda\u2019s critical mineral riches and the speed at which they can be brought to global markets\u2014at commercial scale. The industry is enthusiastic, the government supportive, but there is a long way to go to realize Canada\u2019s mining potential.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Here are seven themes that we observed at the event:<\/p>\n\n\n\n