{"id":25514,"date":"2026-03-06T16:46:34","date_gmt":"2026-03-06T16:46:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/?post_type=rbc_tl&p=25514\/"},"modified":"2026-03-27T14:08:57","modified_gmt":"2026-03-27T14:08:57","slug":"critical-conversations-seven-takeaways-from-pdac","status":"publish","type":"rbc_tl","link":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/thought-leadership\/climate-action-institute\/energy-reports\/critical-conversations-seven-takeaways-from-pdac\/","title":{"rendered":"Critical Conversations: Seven takeaways from PDAC"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
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This year\u2019s Prospectors & Developers Association of Canada (PDAC) event in Toronto was abuzz with talk of Canda\u2019s critical mineral riches and the speed at which they can be brought to global markets\u2014at commercial scale. The industry is enthusiastic, the government supportive, but there is a long way to go to realize Canada\u2019s mining potential. Here are seven themes that we observed at the event.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

1. Diverging views of supply chains exposures<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The U.S. and Canada approach critical minerals from materially different strategic frameworks, and that divergence has consequences for bilateral cooperation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The U.S. framing is one of industrial decay and national security emergency\u2014<\/a>manufacturing surge capacity, weapons systems dependency, and concerns of China outpacing American armament production capacity by a factor of five to six. Within that frame, critical minerals are not a supply chain optimization problem but rather a symptom of a broader hollowing out of American industrial capability that extends to smelters, chemical processing, and advanced manufacturing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Canada\u2019s framing has been more \u201cnarrowly\u201d commercial\u2014a supply chain opportunity, a geological advantage to be monetized, and a seat among allies to be secured.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That gap in threat perception creates friction with an expectation the U.S. is (or at least will be, over time) operating on a more binary logic\u2014alignment or non-alignment\u2014while Canada has positioned itself as a middle power seeking rules-based multilateral cooperation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Whether Canada narrows that perception gap\u2014or develops an independent strategic rationale grounded in its own economic security interests\u2014will likely impact how \u201cseriously\u201d it is taken at the bilateral table as the Canada-United States-Mexico trade deal review evolves.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

2. Resolving refining bottlenecks will be key<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Canada\u2019s geological endowment is enviable, but extraction without downstream processing is increasingly seen as less than ideal. Yet, the economics of building processing capacity in Canada are deeply unfavourable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Anecdotally, conversion costs for lithium spodumene to cathode-grade material run roughly twice what they are in China and at times in Latin America. Global copper smelter margins are often 2\u20135%, if not simply breakeven. Canada has closed multiple smelters over the past fifteen years. Even in China, the rare earth refining industry has not earned its cost of capital in three decades\u2014arguably the watermark against which any new entrant must be measured.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

These margins do not support private sector investment at scale without intervention. We heard overwhelming agreement that state capital needs to function as first dollar in, last dollar out on processing infrastructure. The buyers\u2019 club concept\u2014pooling G7 demand and stabilizing prices when they are depressed\u2014addresses part of this problem, but the governance and trust architecture to deploy that capital at scale remains unresolved.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

3. Project Vault is not a partnership of equals<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The bilateral\/plurilateral distinction that emerged from the sessions as it relates to the U.S. view of a buyers\u2019 club\u2014supply sourced bilaterally, but demand aggregated multilaterally\u2014sounds like burden-sharing but warrants scrutiny. This architecture is in essence the U.S. acquiring mineral supply on its own terms, stored on U.S. soil and then asking allies to aggregate demand around what is effectively American strategic inventory. Put plainly: Buy American.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nations\u2019 tendencies to operate in self-interest in a scarcity scenario is precisely the reason for Project Vault\u2019s domestic storage requirement. Still, for other nations like Canada, the risk is being a favoured supplier with no guarantee of preferred access when it matters most. Such asymmetry, hopefully, can be negotiated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

4. Copper is the clearest demand signal<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

If there is one commodity where the investment thesis is most favourable, it is copper. The convergence of AI infrastructure buildouts, electrification, defence procurement, and grid expansion has created a demand profile that generalist investors can underwrite without relying on policy-dependent assumptions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Yet even with this enviable demand profile, there is strong consensus of a growing shortage of copper supply, still. As it relates to Canada, copper may be the most realistic near-term entry point through which broader mining investment, including in associated polymetallic deposits, gets unlocked, solving many of the \u201cmore traditional\u201d less niche, mining development challenges.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

5. Don\u2019t ignore civilian demand<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

At its simplest, sustainable long-term demand secures supply chains. China built its critical minerals dominance through civilian demand\u2014electric vehicles, wind turbines, batteries\u2014at a scale that justified refining investment and created learning curve advantages that now make its processing margins tough to compete against.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The strategic paradox facing North America is attempting to construct supply chains for critical minerals while simultaneously pulling back on the civilian demand drivers to justify that investment. Without a credible domestic demand signal, processing facilities face uncertain offtake, and without offtake, project finance is unavailable. At present, alternative anchors such as defence and AI\/data centres is expected to be the near-term catalyst, but the sheer size of the total addressable clean energy demand is one that better captures the attention of longer-term, more generalist investors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

6. Prioritize across the minerals list<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Treating 30-plus minerals as a single policy strategy ignores the complexities of each metal\u2019s supply chain. The genuine policy problem is in niche commodities where Canada punches above its weight\u2014rare earths, scandium, tungsten, graphite, nickel and possibly lithium\u2014where markets are either small, opaque, and\/or structurally dominated by a single producer (often China).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A strategy focused on five to eight minerals with a clear demand anchor is viewed as more executable and more credible from an effective strategy than a broad-based approach. If oriented successfully, this will have positive spillover effects on the procurement of the types of skills and human capital associated with the greater strategy, such as rare earth separation, hydrometallurgy, and advanced processing requiring specialization unreplicated through equipment procurement alone. The expertise that exists across the G7 countries is an untapped potential.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

7. Regulatory coordination as competitive advantage<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Major Projects Office represents a meaningful shift toward facilitation of these projects. Brownfield expansion is the near-term opportunity while Indigenous partnerships, structured early with genuine economic participation, is consistently the most effective accelerant to mitigate permitting and financing risks.\u200b\u200b\u200b\u200b\u200b\u200b\u200b\u200b\u200b\u200b\u200b\u200b\u200b\u200b\u200b<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n\n\n\n

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Shaz Merwat<\/strong>, is the Energy Policy Lead for RBC Thought Leadership<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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