{"id":25421,"date":"2026-02-27T21:46:41","date_gmt":"2026-02-27T21:46:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/?post_type=rbc_tl&#038;p=25421\/will-canada-get-keys-to-the-vault"},"modified":"2026-03-02T16:56:03","modified_gmt":"2026-03-02T16:56:03","slug":"potash-peas-and-power-sources","status":"publish","type":"rbc_tl","link":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/thought-leadership\/the-trade-zone\/potash-peas-and-power-sources\/","title":{"rendered":"Trade Zone: Potash, peas and power sources"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<section class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-block  pos-rel\" style=\"border-radius:0px\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-inner-block  section-inner pad-t-0 mob-pad-t-0\" style=\"border-radius:0x\">\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-rbc-dark-blue-tint-color has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-3259f9dd562b88dc2e560444688b3a4f\" id=\"h-how-canada-can-crack-the-diverse-india-market\">How Canada can crack the diverse India market<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Prime Minister Mark Carney arrived in India with clear ambitions to move quickly toward a Canada\u2013India trade agreement. The geopolitical logic is sound, rooted in diversification, Indo-Pacific cooperation, and increasingly aligned strategic interests.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But successive Canadian governments have tried\u2014and largely failed\u2014to unlock India\u2019s massive market at scale. India liberalizes selectively, opening sectors where imports support domestic growth while maintaining tight protection where political sensitivity is highest. Early gains are therefore most likely where India requires external supply or technology\u2014energy security, industrial inputs, and advanced technologies\u2014meaning Canada\u2019s strategy must prioritize sequenced commercial outcomes rather than broad economy-wide concessions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Luckily, there\u2019s already a blueprint: Canadian pension funds have laid incredible groundwork, having invested over $70 billion in India, which can open up commercial entry points.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>We identify some sectors where Canada can make inroads in the Indian market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Agriculture: Domestic sensitivities, big trade<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-rbc-list is-style-black-disc\">\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>Agriculture remains Canada\u2019s largest export sector to India, yet also one of its most politically constrained. Current measures\u2014a 30% duty on Canadian yellow peas and 10% tariffs on lentils\u2014are designed to protect Indian farmers and manage food-price stability.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>India frequently adjusts tariffs, licencing rules, and procurement conditions in ways that effectively cap import volumes, particularly for pulses where Canada is a leading supplier.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>These policies function as domestic economic management tools and can shift quickly with harvest outcomes or inflation pressures, creating persistent uncertainty for Canadian exporters. Clearer import frameworks would help.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><strong>Energy: Displacing Russian oil and gas<\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-rbc-list is-style-black-disc\">\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>India\u2019s energy demand is expanding across oil, gas, and electricity generation faster than any advanced economy, creating structural alignment with Canada\u2019s resource base.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>Yet current trade highlights the gap between potential and reality: Canada\u2019s largest energy export to India today is coal, not oil or natural gas\u2014demonstrating that infrastructure and commercial pathways are limiting the relationship.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>India\u2019s effort to diversify suppliers, notably Russia, under pressure from the U.S., creates an opening for Canada to reposition itself as a longer-term supplier of crude, LNG, and nuclear fuel.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>Long-term oil and LNG purchase orders\u2014not diplomatic announcements\u2014will determine whether alignment translates into sustained export growth.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><strong>Nuclear: Powered by cooperation<\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-rbc-list is-style-black-disc\">\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>India\u2019s planned reactor expansion, targetting roughly 100 GW of capacity by 2047, requires secure fuel supply, while Canada remains one of a limited number of politically reliable uranium exporters.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>Uranium trade operates on long planning horizons and structured supply arrangements, making it less exposed to short-term commodity volatility than most resource trade.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>Cooperation typically extends beyond fuel into engineering services, safety systems, workforce training, and regulatory collaboration that deepen industrial ties over time.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>A uranium agreement would signal that the bilateral reset has moved beyond diplomacy into sustained economic cooperation.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Talent and culture: Soft people power<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-rbc-list is-style-black-disc\">\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>Talent mobility and diaspora ties remain foundational infrastructure for the commercial relationship, underpinning investment and business linkages across sectors.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>Pressures surrounding international students and domestic post-secondary capacity mean mobility policies must balance economic opportunity with political sustainability at home.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>Film and media collaboration represents a practical early opportunity, as Bollywood production increasingly seeks global filming locations that \u201cHollywood North\u201d can provide.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Industries: Beyond commodities<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-rbc-list is-style-black-disc\">\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>India\u2019s growth constraints increasingly lie in systems\u2014grids, logistics, emissions management, and industrial efficiency\u2014not simply access to raw materials.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>Canadian firms are competitive in these enabling technologies, allowing Canada to participate as a solutions partner alongside a resource exporter.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>Pairing energy exports with clean technology and digital optimization broadens the relationship beyond commodity cycles and supports incremental, repeatable commercial integration.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Trade with India will advance not through political momentum alone, but by aligning commercial incentives with India\u2019s domestic priorities. Canada\u2019s success will ultimately be measured not by what paper is signed but what follows: goods shipped, projects financed, and supply relationships durable enough to expand over time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u2013Thomas Ashcroft, Global Issues Policy Lead<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<div id=\"everviz-it1w4Ko9_\" class=\"everviz-it1w4Ko9_\" data-view=\"graph\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n\n\n\n<section class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-block  pos-rel\" style=\"border-radius:0px\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-inner-block  section-inner pad-t-0 mob-pad-t-0\" style=\"border-radius:0x\">\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-rbc-dark-blue-tint-color has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-975fa121f2db88024f7fd11ebd8a3e15\" id=\"h-back-to-the-future-lessons-from-a-post-wwii-tin-agreement\">Back to the Future: Lessons from a Post-WWII Tin Agreement<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"h-car-trouble-ahead\">This week, the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative issued a <a href=\"https:\/\/public-inspection.federalregister.gov\/2026-03868.pdf?utm_campaign=pi+subscription+mailing+list&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_source=federalregister.gov\" data-dig-id=\"LP-25421-67d8eb29\" data-dig-category=\"LP\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-label=\"request for comments\" class=\"rbc-link-format\">request for comments<\/a> on how a plurilateral critical minerals agreement should be designed. Buried within the submission is a reference to the 1956 International Tin Agreement. That reference is worth a short history lesson.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Why It Matters<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The International Tin Agreement was one of the most ambitious experiments in commodity market governance ever attempted\u2014a producer-consumer framework designed to bring price stability to a material the Western world depended on but couldn\u2019t control. It lasted nearly 30 years but ultimately failed. The reasons it failed are precisely the questions the USTR notice is now asking allied governments to answer for critical minerals.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Lessons learned<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-rbc-list is-style-roman-lower-list\">\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p><strong>The buyers\u2019 club needs to be big enough to matter. <\/strong>The<strong> <\/strong>tin deal failed partly because non-members were significant suppliers. Plurilateral clubs need critical mass\u2014hard to do given China dominates both refined supply and end-use demand.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p><strong>Speed matters.<\/strong> Tin took six revisions over decades to lay the ground, and still collapsed. The window for today\u2019s Western critical mineral supply chain realignment is shorter with China likely even more incentivized to further disrupt markets.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p><strong>Rules of origin is the real enforcement mechanism<\/strong>. Price floors mean little without teeth, and the buyers\u2019 club needs compliance. Given U.S. desires to reshore production, this reads as a competitive advantage for Canada relative to other U.S. trade partners.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Bigger picture<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The critical minerals file is unusual as it\u2019s the only area where Washington is leveraging partnerships rather than tariffs. Convening allies, building frameworks, and even asking trade partners to help design the rules is helping Washington foster greater confidence and investment certainty for industry and financiers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The architecture is emerging, and if successful, a guaranteed price for metals tied to rules of origin that extend through to refined input should be enough to make Western refining economies work. At present, the capital to build that infrastructure is not. This is where more work needs to be done.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\" \/>\n\n\n\n<p>Landing on the eve of the annual Prospectors &amp; Developers Association of Canada conference in Toronto, which attracts more than 27,000 attendees, is RBC Thought Leadership\u2019s newest report,&nbsp; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/thought-leadership\/climate-action-institute\/energy-reports\/mine-refine-bridging-canadas-critical-minerals-capital-gap-2\/\" data-dig-id=\"LP-25421-0f628b4f\" data-dig-category=\"LP\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-label=\"Mine &amp; Refine\" class=\"rbc-link-format\">Mine &amp; Refine<\/a>, which examines that capital gap\u2014the structures, financing mechanisms, and sovereign investment needed to make Canada a credible supplier of refined critical minerals into the new supply chain order.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u2013Shaz Merwat, Energy Policy Lead<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n\n\n\n<section class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-block  pos-rel\" style=\"border-radius:0px\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-inner-block  section-inner pad-t-0 mob-pad-t-0\" style=\"border-radius:0x\">\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-rbc-dark-blue-tint-color has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-a78f007f6b07f7bfd34a14b1e9865db2\" id=\"h-the-week-that-was\">The week that was<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><strong>China\u2019s finance ministry <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ctvnews.ca\/world\/article\/china-suspends-some-canola-seafood-tariffs-on-canada-after-carney-visit\/#:~:text=By,to%20a%20request%20for%20comment.\" data-dig-id=\"LP-25421-246f1bad\" data-dig-category=\"LP\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-label=\"confirmed\" class=\"rbc-link-format\">confirmed<\/a> that tariffs on some Canadian agricultural goods will be suspended.<\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-rbc-list is-style-black-disc\">\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>The announcement follows the deal Carney cut in Beijing earlier this month.&nbsp;<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>While the 100% tariffs on canola meal and peas, and the 25% levy on lobsters and crabs will not be imposed, the announcement made no mention of canola seed tariffs, which were supposed to come down to 15% as of March 1.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Over 900 companies <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ft.com\/content\/365d5cee-1b3a-4765-8b32-44468851e7e4\" data-dig-id=\"LP-25421-79e4f5be\" data-dig-category=\"LP\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-label=\"have sued\" class=\"rbc-link-format\">have sued<\/a> the U.S. government after Supreme Court tariff ruling<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-rbc-list is-style-black-disc\">\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>FedEx was the first major American company to come asking for refunds after last Friday\u2019s ruling putting ~$170bn of tariff revenue in play.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>The onslaught of lawsuits that have been filed with the U.S. Court of International Trade will keep lawyers busy for some time and introduce another major layer of uncertainty and difficulty for U.S. President Donald Trump\u2019s tariff regime.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Germany <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2026-02-26\/merz-commits-to-stronger-china-ties-on-first-visit-as-chancellor\" data-dig-id=\"LP-25421-eccc5da1\" data-dig-category=\"LP\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-label=\"pushes\" class=\"rbc-link-format\">pushes<\/a> China for a trade reset<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-rbc-list is-style-black-disc\">\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>Chancellor Friedrich Merz urged Beijing to curb subsidies, address industrial overcapacity, and ease restrictions on European firms as EU concerns over unfair competition and widening trade imbalances grow.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>Xi Jinping positioned China as a defender of multilateral trade and encouraged closer EU alignment, even as Europe seeks to reduce strategic dependencies in critical supply chains.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u2013Thomas Ashcroft, Global Issues Policy Lead<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>How Canada can crack India\u2019s diverse market<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":89,"featured_media":25444,"parent":0,"menu_order":0,"template":"","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"disable_focal_point":false,"featured_image_focal_point":{"x":0.52,"y":0.41},"advgb_blocks_editor_width":"","advgb_blocks_columns_visual_guide":"","footnotes":""},"rbc_tl_category":[207],"rbc_tl_tag":[],"class_list":["post-25421","rbc_tl","type-rbc_tl","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","rbc_tl_category-the-trade-zone"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.2 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