{"id":25016,"date":"2026-02-13T19:35:34","date_gmt":"2026-02-13T19:35:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/?post_type=rbc_tl&#038;p=25016\/wheelin-and-dealin-before-cusma"},"modified":"2026-02-17T15:32:00","modified_gmt":"2026-02-17T15:32:00","slug":"will-canada-get-keys-to-the-vault","status":"publish","type":"rbc_tl","link":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/thought-leadership\/the-trade-zone\/will-canada-get-keys-to-the-vault\/","title":{"rendered":"Trade Zone: Will Canada get keys to the Vault?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<section class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-block  pos-rel\" style=\"border-radius:0px\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-inner-block  section-inner pad-t-0 mob-pad-t-0\" style=\"border-radius:0x\">\n<p><strong>Also in this edition:<\/strong> What the future could hold for Canada\u2019s auto industry<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-rbc-dark-blue-tint-color has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-09e2fc2551859acb10d6641d835f45e8\" id=\"h-locked-out-of-the-vault\">Locked out of the Vault<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Agreements from Washington\u2019s inaugural Critical Minerals Ministerial are still being digested, which saw bilateral frameworks with over a dozen trade partners and the unveiling of Project Vault.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Notably, Canada wasn\u2019t among the signatories. So as America rewires the global minerals order, does Canada stand to gain or be left behind?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Why It Matters<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Project Vault is America\u2019s attempt to build a Strategic Petroleum Reserve for critical minerals. The problem: the SPR analogy breaks down in a way that matters enormously for Canada.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The original SPR worked because the U.S. had vast domestic refining capacity\u2014stored crude to be converted into refined fuels along the Gulf Coast. Today, North America has almost none of the processing infrastructure needed to convert raw critical minerals into the refined compounds that defense, semiconductors, and EVs ultimately require.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>So Project Vault faces a fundamental paradox: stockpile raw ore with no capacity to process it; stockpile refined material almost certainly bought from China\u2014the very dependency the U.S. is trying to hedge.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>By the Numbers <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-rbc-list is-style-black-disc\">\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p><strong>US$15 billion\u2014<\/strong>EXIM Bank <a href=\"https:\/\/www.state.gov\/releases\/office-of-the-spokesperson\/2026\/02\/2026-critical-minerals-ministerial\">financing<\/a> already mobilized across allied minerals projects globally, before Project Vault<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p><strong>US$12 billion\u2014<\/strong>Project Vault <a href=\"https:\/\/fortune.com\/2026\/02\/03\/project-vault-critical-minerals-stockpile-rare-earths-first-step-break-china-chokehold\/\">financing<\/a> (US$10 billion from the U.S. Export-Import Bank and US$2 billion in private capital)<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p><strong>60-day supply target<\/strong> buffer for strategic minerals<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p><strong>15 bilateral <a href=\"https:\/\/www.clarkhill.com\/news-events\/news\/critical-minerals-ministerial-recap-how-the-u-s-is-redefining-global-production\/\">frameworks<\/a><\/strong> signed this week alone\u2014including the EU, Japan, UAE.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>China\u2019s refining <a href=\"https:\/\/comments.ustr.gov\/s\/commentdetails?rid=R9CDXDC2J4\">grip<\/a>\u2014<strong>98% gallium, 91% rare earth magnets, 96% battery-grade graphite, 79% cobalt<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>Canada\u2019s position\u2014<strong>71% of U.S. unwrought <a href=\"https:\/\/comments.ustr.gov\/s\/commentdetails?rid=R9CDXDC2J4\">aluminum<\/a> imports<\/strong>; Quebec\u2019s Vaudreuil refinery is one of only two alumina refineries left in North America.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>Project Vault covers all <strong>60 critical minerals<\/strong> on the USGS list, many of which are core economic exports for Canada<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>The Bigger Picture<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The U.S. isn\u2019t building a multilateral framework\u2014the word chosen deliberately at the ministerial was <em>plurilateral<\/em>. A smaller, aligned coalition setting its own rules, coordinating price floors, and directing investment collectively. Through EXIM and Project Vault, this architecture is being built in real-time. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Energy-intensive refining and smelting, the very processes needed to turn minerals reserve into usable industrial inputs, on paper at least, is a good set up for Canada. Our clean and cost competitive power (hydro, nuclear) complements existing mineral deposits, which, with integrated rail networks, allow for better full-cycle economics than stand-alone processing and refining operations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Bottom Line<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Canada\u2019s critical minerals endowment is arguably its most important bilateral tool heading into the CUSMA renegotiation. Its broader integration into U.S. supply chains\u2014across aluminum, copper, nickel, zinc and manganese\u2014 limits being phased-out to a large extent. If Canada can secure explicit recognition of Canadian content in U.S. value chains, via CUSMA assisted by Project Vault\u2019s predictive offtake and access to U.S. capital, it is a clear win.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>That said, our minerals chip depreciates with each passing day. Every bilateral framework Washington signs with another partner narrows Canada\u2019s relative leverage, especially if CUSMA negotiations extend into 2027. And at a time when investment decisions at times are less about economics and more a price of admission to the U.S. market (read: Korea Zinc JV).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Threading that needle will be the challenge.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>&#8211; Shaz Merwat<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n\n\n\n<section class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-block  pos-rel\" style=\"border-radius:0px\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-inner-block  section-inner pad-t-0 mob-pad-t-0\" style=\"border-radius:0x\">\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-rbc-dark-blue-tint-color has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-2579465af78cc0465fb2e336dbfe7db7\" id=\"h-car-trouble-ahead\">Car trouble ahead?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>RBC economist Farhad Pananov<\/strong> was at The Globe and Mail\u2019s Future of Automotive event this week. Here\u2019s some of what he heard:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-rbc-list is-style-black-disc\">\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>Strategic investments in the auto sector have fallen off compared to just to a few years ago when manufacturers were setting long-term pivots.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>While panelists heaped plenty of praise on Canada\u2019s highly skilled and educated labour force and diversified local economies, it was clear what the country\u2019s greatest advantage is access to the second largest auto market in the world. For now, at least.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>The Canada-China EV deal, which will facilitate the import of 49,000 Chinese EVs a year at low tariff rates, was met with skepticism in the room: Which brands will come to Canada? Will Canadians actually buy them?<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>The answer to that last question could all come down to the price\u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" height=\"681\" width=\"1024\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2026\/02\/COTD-GRAPHS-Feb-13-EN.png?quality=80&amp;w=1024\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-25050\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2026\/02\/COTD-GRAPHS-Feb-13-EN.png 4000w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2026\/02\/COTD-GRAPHS-Feb-13-EN.png?resize=300,200 300w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2026\/02\/COTD-GRAPHS-Feb-13-EN.png?resize=768,511 768w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2026\/02\/COTD-GRAPHS-Feb-13-EN.png?resize=1024,681 1024w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2026\/02\/COTD-GRAPHS-Feb-13-EN.png?resize=1536,1021 1536w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2026\/02\/COTD-GRAPHS-Feb-13-EN.png?resize=2048,1362 2048w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n\n\n\n<section class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-block  pos-rel\" style=\"border-radius:0px\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-inner-block  section-inner pad-t-0 mob-pad-t-0\" style=\"border-radius:0x\">\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-rbc-dark-blue-tint-color has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-0d8774f329b28045a79f825d1f9f1559\" id=\"h-trade-posts\">Trade Posts<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>U.S. lawmakers <\/strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.bbc.com\/news\/articles\/clyz2142e77o\"><strong>rebuke<\/strong><\/a><strong> Trump\u2019s Canada tariffs&nbsp;<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-rbc-list is-style-black-disc\">\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>The U.S. House of Representatives voted to rescind tariffs on Canadian goods, the same week President Trump threatened to block the opening of the Gordie Howe International Bridge because of trade disputes.&nbsp;<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>While the President will likely veto the motion, Wednesday\u2019s vote was backed by six Republicans, indicating growing discontent with Trump\u2019s trade policies and threats.&nbsp;<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>U.S. agriculture industry <\/strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.cbc.ca\/news\/world\/trump-trade-tariffs-cusma-usmca-agriculture-9.7083629\"><strong>lobbies<\/strong><\/a><strong> for CUSMA continuation<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-rbc-list is-style-black-disc\">\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>Over 40 U.S. agricultural groups have formed a coalition to support the Canada-U.S.-Mexico trade agreement, emphasizing the economic benefits it brings to rural communities and American farmlands.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>The advocacy campaign is targeting members of Congress, the White House, and the President, with economic analysis that shows&nbsp;Canada and Mexico account for approximately one-third of the value of U.S. agricultural exports.&nbsp;<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>U.K. government signals <\/strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.bbc.com\/news\/articles\/cpd8veqej90o\"><strong>closer alignment<\/strong><\/a><strong> with Europe<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-rbc-list is-style-black-disc\">\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>Chancellor Rachel Reeves announced the U.K. is prepared to unilaterally align with the EU\u2019s single market rules in sectors like financial services to reduce trade barriers, describing closer integration with the EU as the &#8220;biggest prize&#8221; for U.K. growth, pivoting away from prioritizing non-European trade deals.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>The Labour government has been reticent to reopen Brexit as a political issue but are beginning to look more fondly at closer integration with the EU as they search for ways to boost economic growth.&nbsp;<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>&#8212; Thomas Ashcroft<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The U.S. is trying to remake the global critical minerals order. That could have some serious implications for its northern neighbour. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":315,"featured_media":25061,"parent":0,"menu_order":0,"template":"","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"disable_focal_point":false,"featured_image_focal_point":{"x":0.51,"y":0.69},"advgb_blocks_editor_width":"","advgb_blocks_columns_visual_guide":"","footnotes":""},"rbc_tl_category":[207],"rbc_tl_tag":[],"class_list":["post-25016","rbc_tl","type-rbc_tl","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","rbc_tl_category-the-trade-zone"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.4 (Yoast SEO v27.4) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Trade Zone: Will Canada get keys to the Vault? -<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The U.S. is trying to remake the global critical minerals order. 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