{"id":23825,"date":"2025-12-19T20:48:48","date_gmt":"2025-12-19T20:48:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/?post_type=rbc_tl&#038;p=23825\/sowing-the-seeds-of-higher-prices"},"modified":"2025-12-23T15:07:44","modified_gmt":"2025-12-23T15:07:44","slug":"25-numbers-that-defined-a-turbulent-year","status":"publish","type":"rbc_tl","link":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/thought-leadership\/the-trade-zone\/25-numbers-that-defined-a-turbulent-year\/","title":{"rendered":"Trade Zone: 25 numbers that defined a turbulent year"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<section class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-block  pos-rel\" style=\"border-radius:0px\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-inner-block  section-inner pad-t-0 mob-pad-t-0\" style=\"border-radius:0x\">\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-rbc-dark-blue-tint-color has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-577386a6591847d809fff530c6e090d1\" id=\"h-what-s-in-store-for-carney-amp-canada-in-2026\">What&#8217;s in store for Carney &amp; Canada in 2026?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>By<strong> John Stackhouse<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Tariffs don\u2019t take a holiday and we can assume President Donald Trump won\u2019t either.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Trump used his decorative holiday message to the nation this week to portray himself as a Santa Claus of trade:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-rbc-list is-style-black-disc\">\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>Tariffs are one of his great achievements, saying it is bringing record investment to the U.S.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>Tariffs will help pay for the \u201cwarrior dividend\u201d to 1.45 million U.S. military personnel.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>Tariffs are leading to lower prices.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>We will see later in 2026 (hello, midterms) if Americans agree. But expect the President to charge into 2026 on a tariff high, even if, as expected, the Supreme Court rules that he\u2019s overstepped his powers. How? The White House can quickly rebuild the tariff wall, using Section 122 and 301 powers that would keep tariffs in place, although the expected rate might drop from the current 16% average to perhaps 10%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Three questions for the New Year:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-rbc-list is-style-roman-lower-list\">\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>Will countries look to retaliate, even with non-tariff barriers?<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>Can Congress afford to pass tax cuts and tariff cuts?<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>Can Canada afford to play for time?<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Mark Carney seems resigned to the \u201cno deal\u201d scenario, and with it a long slog for CUSMA negotiations. The biggest near-term challenges will be around digital services, lumber and rules of origin for auto manufacturers, each with its own economic and political calculus:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-rbc-list is-style-black-disc\">\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>expect the U.S. to continue to push for more concessions for online media, particularly for Meta, which could face blowback in Quebec where cultural protections (including subsidies for local media) will be a red line for an expected Parti Quebecois government in 2026;<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>expect the U.S., facing a soft housing market, to continue to hammer B.C. (and New Brunswick) with softwood lumber measures;<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>expect Doug Ford to push hard again for favourable access to the U.S. auto market for Ontario assembly plants.&nbsp;<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Canada is not likely to get all three. Which means Carney may spend the holidays thinking through the coal that Santa has in mind for 2026.&nbsp;<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n\n\n\n<section class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-block  pos-rel\" style=\"border-radius:0px\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-inner-block  section-inner pad-t-0 mob-pad-t-0\" style=\"border-radius:0x\">\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-rbc-dark-blue-tint-color has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-cb810aac7145c618c5e75337dfef20be\" id=\"h-25-numbers-that-defined-25\">25 numbers that defined \u201925<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>14257<\/strong>: The Executive Order signed by U.S. President Donald Trump on April 2 that imposed a 10% baseline tariff on imports from all U.S. trading partners.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>90<\/strong>: Countries slapped with a tariff rate above the baseline 10% on \u201cLiberation Day.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>2: <\/strong>White House visits by Prime Minister Mark Carney. The most recent was in early October during which Trump called Carney a \u201cgood man\u201d who is doing \u201ca great job.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>75 million: <\/strong>Dollars spent by Doug Ford\u2019s Ontario government on an <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ctvnews.ca\/world\/trumps-tariffs\/article\/how-it-started-how-it-ended-a-chronology-of-ontarios-ad-blitz-against-us-tariffs\/\" data-dig-id=\"LP-23825-f0c51fa8\" data-dig-category=\"LP\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-label=\"anti-tariff ad campaign\" class=\"rbc-link-format\">anti-tariff ad campaign<\/a> featuring Ronald Reagan, which prompted Trump to call off negotiations with Canada. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cp24.com\/video\/2025\/12\/18\/that-was-the-best-ad-thats-ever-been-run-124-billion-views-doug-ford-on-tariff-ad\/\" data-dig-id=\"LP-23825-5e061150\" data-dig-category=\"LP\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-label=\"Ford\" class=\"rbc-link-format\">Ford<\/a> claims the ad clocked 12.4 billion views.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>US$35 trillion<\/strong>: Estimated value of global goods trade in 2025. <a href=\"https:\/\/unctad.org\/news\/global-trade-hit-record-35-trillion-despite-slowing-momentum\" data-dig-id=\"LP-23825-f6370d16\" data-dig-category=\"LP\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-label=\"Trade volumes\" class=\"rbc-link-format\">Trade volumes<\/a> hit record highs even as geopolitics fractured supply chains\u2014proof that globalization is rewiring, not retreating.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>50,000<\/strong>: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/thought-leadership\/the-trade-zone\/sowing-the-seeds-of-higher-prices\/\" data-dig-id=\"LP-23825-a1920c9a\" data-dig-category=\"LP\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-label=\"Fewer manufacturing jobs\" class=\"rbc-link-format\">Fewer manufacturing jobs<\/a> in the U.S. since the start of the year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>US$1 trillion: <\/strong>China\u2019s record trade surplus despite tensions with the U.S. Beijing exported&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2025-12-08\/china-exports-return-to-growth-as-trade-surplus-tops-1-trillion\" data-dig-id=\"LP-23825-3d704de6\" data-dig-category=\"LP\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-label=\"US$3.4 trillion worth of goods\" class=\"rbc-link-format\">US$3.4 trillion worth of goods<\/a>&nbsp;in the first 11 months of the year by finding, in part, new markets, including Africa (+26%), Southeast Asia (+14%) and Latin America (+7.1%).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>5: <\/strong>The industries that accounted for 80%of tariffs the U.S. collected from Canada, namely auto (28.8%), aluminum (23.3%), iron and steel (12.7%), machinery (8.8%), articles of iron and steel (8.3%).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>$70 billion<\/strong>: The <a href=\"\\Users\\771651791\\AppData\\Local\\Microsoft\\Windows\\INetCache\\Content.Outlook\\5R48AGIZ\\$70-billion investment\" data-dig-id=\"LP-23825-51b1a886\" data-dig-category=\"LP\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-label=\"United Arab Emirates\u2019\" class=\"rbc-link-format\">United Arab Emirates\u2019<\/a> investment pledge for Canada, focused on the development of critical minerals, energy, ports and AI.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>US$226.4 billion<\/strong>: U.S. exports to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2025\/11\/19\/world\/americas\/us-mexico-trade.html\" data-dig-id=\"LP-23825-84a3747e\" data-dig-category=\"LP\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-label=\"Mexico\" class=\"rbc-link-format\">Mexico<\/a> between January and August\u2014surpassing the US$225.6 billion goods shipped to Canada\u2014marking the first time in 30 years Mexico overtook Canada as a top destinations for exports.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>$200 billion<\/strong>: The <a href=\"https:\/\/financialpost.com\/news\/economy\/canada-trade-provinces-reliance-us\" data-dig-id=\"LP-23825-b33f4d5a\" data-dig-category=\"LP\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-label=\"estimated value\" class=\"rbc-link-format\">estimated value<\/a> of the Canadian Mutual Recognition Agreement, which eliminates all barriers to trading goods (except food) between Canadian provinces and territories.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>3x<\/strong>: Increase in global <a href=\"https:\/\/www.wto.org\/english\/news_e\/news_docs\/32nd_WTO_Report_on_G20_Trade_Measures.pdf?utm_source=chatgpt.com\" data-dig-id=\"LP-23825-2e61af7b\" data-dig-category=\"LP\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-label=\"trade-restrictive measures\" class=\"rbc-link-format\">trade-restrictive measures<\/a> since 2019. Tariffs, export controls, and subsidies are now structural features of trade policy\u2014not temporary shocks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>10%: <\/strong>The amount of lumber exports &nbsp;(enough to build 75,000 homes) that Canada\u2019s forestry industry is planning to&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.ft.com\/content\/e56e8bb0-6dc0-4447-a907-e95164cec8e5\" data-dig-id=\"LP-23825-5b8cebbe\" data-dig-category=\"LP\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-label=\"re-route\" class=\"rbc-link-format\">re-route<\/a>&nbsp;from the U.S. to the U.K. and Europe.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>100%<\/strong>: U.S. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/thought-leadership\/the-trade-zone\/a-new-chapter-in-saudi-canadian-relations\/\" data-dig-id=\"LP-23825-52a4cda1\" data-dig-category=\"LP\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-label=\"reliance on imports\" class=\"rbc-link-format\">reliance on imports<\/a> for 16 critical minerals (including graphite), with more than 50% import dependence for another 29, including zinc, cobalt, and nickel.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>$600 billion<\/strong>: Canada\u2019s non-U.S. export goal by 2035, as outlined in the 2025 federal budget&#8211;doubling the current amount.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>$50 billion<\/strong>: The potential <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cbc.ca\/news\/politics\/carney-modi-negotiations-canada-india-trade-deal-9.6989535\" data-dig-id=\"LP-23825-5f2ebccc\" data-dig-category=\"LP\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-label=\"value of a trade partnership\" class=\"rbc-link-format\">value of a trade partnership<\/a> between Canada and India, which have renewed relations this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>$100 billion<\/strong>: The annual value of Canada&#8217;s <a href=\"https:\/\/thoughtleadership.rbc.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/Food-First-EN-Final.pdf\" data-dig-id=\"LP-23825-2ed92561\" data-dig-category=\"LP\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-label=\"agri-food exports\" class=\"rbc-link-format\">agri-food exports<\/a>. Roughly 60% was destined for U.S. markets.<br><br><strong>$994.63<\/strong>: The amount the average family in Canada can expect to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.dal.ca\/sites\/agri-food\/research\/canada-s-food-price-report-2026.html\" data-dig-id=\"LP-23825-efd6576c\" data-dig-category=\"LP\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-label=\"pay more in groceries in 2026\" class=\"rbc-link-format\">pay more in groceries in 2026<\/a>, compared to 2025. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/thought-leadership\/climate-action-institute\/agriculture-reports\/feeding-the-crisis-the-tariff-toll-on-food-insecurity\/\" data-dig-id=\"LP-23825-af1e7ef2\" data-dig-category=\"LP\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-label=\"The toll of tariffs\" class=\"rbc-link-format\">The toll of tariffs<\/a> is impacting domestic food security, with one in four Canadians experiencing food insecurity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>86<\/strong>: Percentage of goods the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/canadian-analysis\/data-flashes\/canadas-trade-balance-swung-back-to-a-surplus-in-september\/\" data-dig-id=\"LP-23825-8dea79a8\" data-dig-category=\"LP\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-label=\"U.S. imported from Canada\" class=\"rbc-link-format\">U.S. imported from Canada<\/a> in September that were duty free.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>51<\/strong>: Number of days gold prices closed higher than previous all-time highs due to heightened geo-economic uncertainty.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>28%<\/strong>: The increase in <a href=\"https:\/\/www150.statcan.gc.ca\/n1\/daily-quotidien\/251215\/dq251215a-eng.htm#:~:text=In%20November%2C%20prices%20for%20fresh%20or%20frozen%20beef%20(%2B17.7%25)%20and%20coffee%20(%2B27.8%25)%20continued%20to%20be%20significant%20contributors%20to%20overall%20grocery%20inflation%20on%20an%20annual%20basis.\" data-dig-id=\"LP-23825-68b6ae4a\" data-dig-category=\"LP\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-label=\"coffee prices\" class=\"rbc-link-format\">coffee prices<\/a> year-over-year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>19%<\/strong>: Decline in Chinese exports to the U.S. this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>US$244 billion<\/strong>: <a href=\"https:\/\/fiscaldata.treasury.gov\/datasets\/monthly-treasury-statement\/receipts-of-the-u-s-government\" data-dig-id=\"LP-23825-f8e22b50\" data-dig-category=\"LP\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-label=\"Total tariff revenues\" class=\"rbc-link-format\">Total tariff revenues<\/a> the U.S. has collected (January to November 2025)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>1 million bpd<\/strong>: The potential capacity of a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/sustainability\/climate-energy\/canada-drops-emissions-cap-oil-gas-sector-agreement-with-alberta-2025-11-27\/\" data-dig-id=\"LP-23825-940e943b\" data-dig-category=\"LP\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-label=\"West Coast oil export pipeline\" class=\"rbc-link-format\">West Coast oil export pipeline<\/a> at the heart of an MoU between the federal government and Alberta that would expand Alberta\u2019s oil exports to Asia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>US$7 billion: <\/strong>The <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ft.com\/content\/55d76579-b794-46f6-aa4d-41588d9fd44d\" data-dig-id=\"LP-23825-e3d34985\" data-dig-category=\"LP\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-label=\"massive hit\" class=\"rbc-link-format\">massive hit<\/a> Michigan&#8217;s Big Three automakers\u2014General Motors, Ford and Stellantis\u2014expect on their earnings in 2025 from U.S. tariffs.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Plus: The big questions and tariff challenges heading into 2026<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":89,"featured_media":23844,"parent":0,"menu_order":0,"template":"","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"disable_focal_point":false,"featured_image_focal_point":{"x":0.52,"y":0.6},"advgb_blocks_editor_width":"","advgb_blocks_columns_visual_guide":"","footnotes":""},"rbc_tl_category":[207],"rbc_tl_tag":[],"class_list":["post-23825","rbc_tl","type-rbc_tl","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","rbc_tl_category-the-trade-zone"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.2 (Yoast SEO v27.2) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Trade Zone: 25 numbers that defined a turbulent year -<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Plus: The big questions and tariff challenges heading into 2026\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" 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