{"id":23653,"date":"2025-12-12T16:26:10","date_gmt":"2025-12-12T16:26:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/?post_type=rbc_tl&#038;p=23653\/entering-a-new-age-of-re-globalization"},"modified":"2025-12-15T21:43:20","modified_gmt":"2025-12-15T21:43:20","slug":"sowing-the-seeds-of-higher-prices","status":"publish","type":"rbc_tl","link":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/thought-leadership\/the-trade-zone\/sowing-the-seeds-of-higher-prices\/","title":{"rendered":"Sowing the seeds of higher prices"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<section class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-block  pos-rel\" style=\"border-radius:0px\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-inner-block  section-inner pad-t-0 mob-pad-t-0\" style=\"border-radius:0x\">\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-rbc-dark-blue-tint-color has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-ef5a098341ac9d3e2d125fbcbce70c7a\" id=\"h-why-trump-s-very-severe-fertilizer-tariff-threat-is-a-big-deal\">Why Trump&#8217;s &#8216;very severe&#8217; fertilizer tariff threat is a big deal<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>By<strong> Lisa Ashton<\/strong>, Director of Agriculture Policy, RBC Thought Leadership<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>U.S. President Donald Trump\u2019s US$12 billion aid package for American farmers struggling with rising input costs like fertilizer and seeds comes with a sting for Canada. Trump is considering \u201cvery severe\u201d tariffs on Canadian fertilizer to \u201cbolster\u201d U.S. domestic fertilizer production.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This could prove to be an own goal for Washington. More tariffs on Canadian fertilizers are likely to raise prices for U.S. farmers in the short-term and could create volatility in securing long-term supply. The proposed move comes as the U.S. has few alternatives to Canadian fertilizer, while American farmers have limited leverage in the market and are price receivers. Here\u2019s what is at stake for both the Canadian and U.S. agriculture sectors:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-rbc-list is-style-black-disc\">\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>Canada accounts for <strong>81% of U.S. potassium-based chemical fertilizer imports<\/strong> and tariffs would further raise costs along North America\u2019s interconnected agri-food supply chain.<sup><a href=\"#legal-1\" data-dig-id=\"LP-23653-5fa5d10a\" data-dig-label=\"1\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-category=\"LP\" class=\"rbc-link-format\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>The U.S. tried a version of this before<strong>: It imposed broad tariffs (25%)<\/strong> earlier this year on many Canadian imports, including potash and other fertilizers.&nbsp;After pushback from American farmers and industry groups, <strong>fertilizer tariffs were reduced to 10%.<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>Those moves proved to be a body blow as <strong>U.S. Import Price Index for chemical fertilizers rose from 164.5 in December 2024 to 186.5 <\/strong>in September 2025.<sup><a href=\"#legal-3\" data-dig-id=\"LP-23653-5563a602\" data-dig-category=\"LP\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-label=\"3\" class=\"rbc-link-format\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-rbc-list is-style-blue-disc\">\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>The <strong>U.S. Prices Paid Index tracking costs paid by U.S. farmers rose to 149.9 in June 2025, up from 139.9<\/strong> the year before. Over the same period, fertilizer costs were the primary driver for rising costs for U.S. crop farmers, up 11% in the index.<sup><a href=\"#legal-3\" data-dig-id=\"LP-23653-d98c7dec\" data-dig-category=\"LP\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-label=\"3\" class=\"rbc-link-format\">3<\/a><\/sup><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>Canada has the world\u2019s largest potash reserves, with 1.1 billion tonnes of potash, which is 5x larger than U.S. reserves.<sup><a href=\"http:\/\/@legal-4\" data-dig-id=\"LP-23653-e7a4be43\" data-dig-label=\"4\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-category=\"LP\" class=\"rbc-link-format\">4<\/a><\/sup><strong> Canada\u2019s scale of potash mining by production volumes was 36x larger than the U.S. in 2024<\/strong>.<sup><a href=\"#legal-5\" data-dig-id=\"LP-23653-c0d45b80\" data-dig-category=\"LP\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-label=\"5\" class=\"rbc-link-format\">5<\/a><\/sup><\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p><strong>Fertilizers account for roughly 30% to 45% of a U.S. farmer\u2019s annual operating cost,<\/strong> depending on the crop.<sup><a href=\"#legal-6\" data-dig-id=\"LP-23653-b0016067\" data-dig-category=\"LP\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-label=\"6\" class=\"rbc-link-format\">6<\/a><\/sup> As farmers are vulnerable to volatility in input prices, they often can\u2019t pass rising input costs onto consumers since many sell into commodity markets (i.e. corn, wheat, soybeans). That could challenge the U.S. administration\u2019s efforts to reduce costs for farmers ahead of 2026 mid-terms with active tariffs on their inputs and threats of more.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n\n\n\n<section class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-block  pos-rel\" style=\"border-radius:0px\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-inner-block  section-inner pad-t-0 mob-pad-t-0\" style=\"border-radius:0x\">\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-rbc-dark-blue-tint-color has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-a78f007f6b07f7bfd34a14b1e9865db2\" id=\"h-the-week-that-was\">The week that was<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-rbc-list is-style-black-disc\">\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p><strong>The U.S. could carve out separate deals with Canada and Mexico<\/strong> says U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer. He said the Trump administration is leaving all options on the table when it comes to the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA). Mark Carney was quick to dismiss the possibility of separate deals: \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/politics\/article-carney-rejects-idea-trump-wants-to-exit-usmca\/\" data-dig-id=\"LP-23653-20204826\" data-dig-category=\"LP\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-label=\"That\u2019s not what they\u2019re saying\" class=\"rbc-link-format\">That\u2019s not what they\u2019re saying<\/a>.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p><strong>Kirsten Hillman, Canada\u2019s ambassador to the U.S. who played a key role in the CUSMA negotiations, announced that she will <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cbc.ca\/news\/politics\/kirsten-hillman-stepping-down-9.7009333\" data-dig-id=\"LP-23653-9a6a4428\" data-dig-category=\"LP\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-label=\"step down\" class=\"rbc-link-format\">step down<\/a> in the New Year.<\/strong> Hillman\u2019s replacement has yet to be announced but reports surfaced that Mark Wiseman, former chief executive of the Canada Pension Plan Investment Board, is the front-runner.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>Canada\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/business\/article-canada-first-trade-surplus-seven-months-export-boost\/#:~:text=Surging%20exports%20to%20the%20U.S.,August%2C%20Statistics%20Canada%20said%20Thursday.\" data-dig-id=\"LP-23653-9dd78a6e\" data-dig-category=\"LP\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-label=\"$153-million trade surplus\" class=\"rbc-link-format\">$153-million trade surplus<\/a> in September blew past analysts\u2019 expectations of a $4.5-billion deficit. Exports to the U.S. rose 4.6% (imports fell 1.7%). And exports to other parts of the world shot up 18.6%.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>In the U.S. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2025-12-11\/us-trade-deficit-unexpectedly-shrinks-to-smallest-since-2020\" data-dig-id=\"LP-23653-2efaa105\" data-dig-category=\"LP\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-label=\"exports surged\" class=\"rbc-link-format\">exports surged<\/a> in September, resulting in <strong>the smallest trade deficit in 5 years<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p><strong>And China\u2019s trade surplus tops US$1 trillion for the first time<\/strong>. Despite trade tensions with the U.S., Beijing exported <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2025-12-08\/china-exports-return-to-growth-as-trade-surplus-tops-1-trillion\" data-dig-id=\"LP-23653-db497704\" data-dig-category=\"LP\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-label=\"US$3.4 trillion worth of goods\" class=\"rbc-link-format\">US$3.4 trillion worth of goods<\/a> in the first 11 months of the year by finding, in part, new markets for its outbound shipments, including Africa (+26%), Southeast Asia (+14%) and Latin America (+7.1%).<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n\n\n\n<section class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-block  pos-rel\" style=\"border-radius:0px\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-inner-block  section-inner pad-t-0 mob-pad-t-0\" style=\"border-radius:0x\">\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-rbc-dark-blue-tint-color has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-6a5a8d19da09eb7b0127836ed07fc8b1\" id=\"h-trump-s-tariff-toll\">Trump\u2019s tariff toll<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>By <strong>Jordan Brennan,<\/strong> Managing Director, RBC Thought Leadership<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>President Trump has been making the point that tariffs carry with it short-term pain for long-term gain. The data confirms that he\u2019s got the pain part right.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Inflation:<\/strong> Since Trump\u2019s so-called \u2018Liberation Day\u2019 in April, producer prices in the U.S. have moved meaningfully higher. The knock-on-effect: <strong>consumer inflation has grown for five consecutive months<\/strong> and now stands at 3%\u2014a level not seen since early 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"4000\" height=\"2460\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2025\/12\/TL-Graphs-12.12-FIG1.png?quality=80\" alt=\"Producer and Consumer prices march higher since liberation day\" class=\"wp-image-23683\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2025\/12\/TL-Graphs-12.12-FIG1.png 4000w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2025\/12\/TL-Graphs-12.12-FIG1.png?resize=300,185 300w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2025\/12\/TL-Graphs-12.12-FIG1.png?resize=768,472 768w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2025\/12\/TL-Graphs-12.12-FIG1.png?resize=1024,630 1024w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2025\/12\/TL-Graphs-12.12-FIG1.png?resize=1536,945 1536w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2025\/12\/TL-Graphs-12.12-FIG1.png?resize=2048,1260 2048w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 4000px) 100vw, 4000px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Consumer sentiment<\/strong>: According to the University of Michigan\u2019s long-running <a href=\"https:\/\/fred.stlouisfed.org\/series\/UMCSENT\">survey<\/a> of consumers, confidence is sitting at half-century lows<strong>. Four of the 10 worst monthly readings have come since Liberation Day<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Manufacturing:<\/strong> Far from rebounding, manufacturing employment\u2014including politically-sensitive auto jobs\u2014has worsened since January. <strong>The U.S. has shed nearly 50,000 manufacturing jobs this year.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"4000\" height=\"2813\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2025\/12\/TL-Graphs-12.12-FIG2.png?quality=80\" alt=\"U.S. Manufacturing Employment Deteriorates in 2025\" class=\"wp-image-23684\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2025\/12\/TL-Graphs-12.12-FIG2.png 4000w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2025\/12\/TL-Graphs-12.12-FIG2.png?resize=300,211 300w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2025\/12\/TL-Graphs-12.12-FIG2.png?resize=768,540 768w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2025\/12\/TL-Graphs-12.12-FIG2.png?resize=1024,720 1024w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2025\/12\/TL-Graphs-12.12-FIG2.png?resize=1536,1080 1536w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2025\/12\/TL-Graphs-12.12-FIG2.png?resize=2048,1440 2048w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 4000px) 100vw, 4000px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>The rejoinder from the White House is inevitably that the tariff policy takes time and discomfort is transitional. But voters rarely reward distant promises over immediate pain. And Trump has already started to ease off, recently slashing tariffs on beef, coffee and assortment of other grocery-store items. Expect more selective tariff relief\u2014targeted by region and by product\u2014as the midterms draw closer.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n\n\n\n<section class=\"wp-block-rbc-rbc-legal-collapsible disclaimer\" aria-label=\"Legal Disclaimers\"><div class=\"section-inner\"><p><button class=\"collapse-toggle collapsed\" data-target=\"#collapseDisclaimer\" data-toggle=\"collapse\" aria-expanded=\"false\" aria-controls=\"collapseDisclaimer\" data-dig-id=\"LP-23653-69b3b4d5\" data-dig-category=\"LP\" data-dig-action=\"legal close\" data-dig-label=\"legal close\" action-closed=\"legal close\" action-opened=\"legal open\" label-close=\"legal open\" label-open=\"legal close\"><span>View Endnotes<\/span><span>Hide Endnotes<\/span><\/button><\/p><div class=\"collapse-content collapse\" id=\"collapseDisclaimer\"><div class=\"collapse-inner\"><div class=\"table-wpr\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-rbc-rbc-disclaimer-block\"><div class=\"table-row\" id=\"legal-1\"><div class=\"table-cell\"><span class=\"offscreen\">Legal Disclaimer<\/span><sup>1<\/sup><\/div><div class=\"table-cell\">\n<p>UN Comtrade. Trade Data, 2025.<\/p>\n<\/div><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-rbc-rbc-disclaimer-block\"><div class=\"table-row\" id=\"legal-2\"><div class=\"table-cell\"><span class=\"offscreen\">Legal Disclaimer<\/span><sup>2<\/sup><\/div><div class=\"table-cell\">\n<p>Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Import Price Index (End Use): Chemicals \u2013 Fertilizers, 2025.<\/p>\n<\/div><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-rbc-rbc-disclaimer-block\"><div class=\"table-row\" id=\"legal-3\"><div class=\"table-cell\"><span class=\"offscreen\">Legal Disclaimer<\/span><sup>3<\/sup><\/div><div class=\"table-cell\">\n<p>USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service. Agricultural Prices, 2025.<\/p>\n<\/div><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-rbc-rbc-disclaimer-block\"><div class=\"table-row\" id=\"legal-4\"><div class=\"table-cell\"><span class=\"offscreen\">Legal Disclaimer<\/span><sup>4<\/sup><\/div><div class=\"table-cell\">\n<p>Potash facts. Natural Resources Canada, 2025.<\/p>\n<\/div><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-rbc-rbc-disclaimer-block\"><div class=\"table-row\" id=\"legal-5\"><div class=\"table-cell\"><span class=\"offscreen\">Legal Disclaimer<\/span><sup>5<\/sup><\/div><div class=\"table-cell\">\n<p>U.S. Geological Survey. Mineral Commodity Summaries &#8211; Potash, January 2025<\/p>\n<\/div><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-rbc-rbc-disclaimer-block\"><div class=\"table-row\" id=\"legal-6\"><div class=\"table-cell\"><span class=\"offscreen\">Legal Disclaimer<\/span><sup>6<\/sup><\/div><div class=\"table-cell\">\n<p>USDA Economic Research Service. Fertilizer prices stable at onset of 2025 planting season, below highs of 2021 and 2022, 2025.<\/p>\n<\/div><\/div><\/div>\n<\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/section>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>What\u2019s at stake for both the Canadian and U.S. agriculture sectors amid new tariff threats<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":89,"featured_media":23667,"parent":0,"menu_order":0,"template":"","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"disable_focal_point":false,"featured_image_focal_point":{"x":0.52,"y":0.6},"advgb_blocks_editor_width":"","advgb_blocks_columns_visual_guide":"","footnotes":""},"rbc_tl_category":[207],"rbc_tl_tag":[],"class_list":["post-23653","rbc_tl","type-rbc_tl","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","rbc_tl_category-the-trade-zone"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.2 (Yoast SEO v27.2) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Sowing the seeds of higher prices 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