{"id":23479,"date":"2025-12-05T23:38:13","date_gmt":"2025-12-05T23:38:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/?post_type=rbc_tl&#038;p=23479\/happy-birthday-cusma-is-seven-your-lucky-number"},"modified":"2025-12-15T19:05:47","modified_gmt":"2025-12-15T19:05:47","slug":"washingtons-heavy-oil-dilemma","status":"publish","type":"rbc_tl","link":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/thought-leadership\/the-trade-zone\/washingtons-heavy-oil-dilemma\/","title":{"rendered":"Trade Zone: Washington\u2019s heavy-oil dilemma"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<section class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-block  pos-rel\" style=\"border-radius:0px\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-inner-block  section-inner pad-t-0 mob-pad-t-0\" style=\"border-radius:0x\">\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Also in this week\u2019s edition:<\/strong> How five tariff-exposed industries in Canada are faring<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-rbc-dark-blue-tint-color has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-762ea961be611edde26db9ca24f137bd\" id=\"h-alberta-s-mou-adds-to-washington-s-heavy-oil-dilemma\">Alberta\u2019s MoU adds to Washington\u2019s heavy-oil dilemma<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>By Shaz Merwat<\/strong>, Energy Policy Lead<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>As U.S. President Donald Trump hosted Prime Minister Mark Carney and Mexico&#8217;s President Claudia Sheinbaum, energy issues loomed in the background amid U.S. concerns about structural deficits in heavy crude. Historically, Canadian barrels competed with Venezuelan heavy crude in key U.S. refining markets\u2014primarily the U.S. Midwest and the Gulf Coast. While Venezuelan volumes have been largely absent for the past decade, shifting U.S. foreign-policy signals suggest that competition could re-emerge.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Why it matters \u2014 Trump cannot unwind two core U.S. dependencies<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Despite efforts to reshape U.S. supply chains, Washington remains structurally dependent on two things it cannot easily substitute: Canadian heavy crude and Chinese rare earths. Heavy crude is foundational to U.S. refining capacity, and as it stands, the U.S. cannot easily replace Canadian supply: domestic production is overwhelmingly light, and heavy-crude alternatives from Mexico and Venezuela have structurally declined.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>These twin constraints limit U.S. leverage and elevate the importance of stable, long-term supply partners. Alberta\u2019s Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) arrives at a moment when U.S. policymakers must balance geopolitical objectives\u2014such as renewed attention on Venezuela\u2014with the reality that Canadian barrels remain irreplaceable in the refinery system.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>By the numbers \u2014 the heavy-barrel shortfall<\/strong> <\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-rbc-list is-style-black-disc pad-l-hlf mob-pad-l-hlf\">\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>Mexico: U.S. bound heavy-crude exports have fallen from as high as ~1.7 mb\/d in 2005-2006 to roughly ~0.40 mb\/d today.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>Venezuela: heavy-crude exports to the U.S. surpassed 1.5 mb\/d in the early 2000s; today U.S. exports are ~0.1 mb\/d.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>Canada: The dominant exporter to the U.S., with around four million barrels of crude shipped south of the border daily. The Canada-Alberta MoU proposed 1 million bpd pipeline, plus 300,000\u2013400,000 bpd from Trans Mountain together create a sizeable uplift in export capacity\u2014primarily oriented toward Asia.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" height=\"654\" width=\"1024\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2025\/12\/TZ-12.05-Crude-Oil-Chart.png?quality=80&amp;w=1024\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-23481\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2025\/12\/TZ-12.05-Crude-Oil-Chart.png 4000w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2025\/12\/TZ-12.05-Crude-Oil-Chart.png?resize=300,192 300w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2025\/12\/TZ-12.05-Crude-Oil-Chart.png?resize=768,490 768w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2025\/12\/TZ-12.05-Crude-Oil-Chart.png?resize=1024,654 1024w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2025\/12\/TZ-12.05-Crude-Oil-Chart.png?resize=1536,981 1536w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2025\/12\/TZ-12.05-Crude-Oil-Chart.png?resize=2048,1308 2048w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>The bigger picture \u2014 if Venezuela returns, does Canada lose leverage?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>A Venezuelan \u201creturn\u201d would likely be slow, expensive and politically fragile. Refinery contracts, debt obligations and upstream infrastructure all require rebuilding. Even under a regime change, investors will demand decade-long stability before committing capital.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Mexico faces similar limits: Sheinbaum inherits state-owned Pemex\u2019s declining production and mounting debt, meaning a rapid restoration of heavy-crude exports is unlikely.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This leaves Canada as the only credible, scalable source of heavy supply. The MoU\u2019s accelerated timelines\u2014carbon-pricing equivalency, methane rules and Pathways carbon capture, utilization and storage project\u2014signal Ottawa and Edmonton are preparing for sustained output growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Bottom line \u2014 the MoU prepares Canada for a more competitive heavy-oil landscape<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>As Canada builds westward capacity through TMX and the proposed 1 million bpd pipeline, more barrels are positioned for Asia rather than the U.S. That shift inevitably forces U.S. policymakers to consider how they will secure heavy-crude supply in the coming decade\u2014including whether to re-engage Venezuela in a more meaningful way.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>For Canada, today, this is less of a challenge. The MoU ensures that, regardless of how U.S. policy evolves, producers have diversified market access and greater resilience. If Venezuelan volumes rise, Canada will have optionality; if they do not, Canada remains the primary supplier to U.S. refiners.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Either way, the middle of the next decade is shaping up to be a far more dynamic heavy-oil environment\u2014and the MoU positions Canada to navigate it from a position of strength.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n\n\n\n<section class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-block  pos-rel\" style=\"border-radius:0px\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-inner-block  section-inner pad-t-0 mob-pad-t-0\" style=\"border-radius:0x\">\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-rbc-dark-blue-tint-color has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-a78f007f6b07f7bfd34a14b1e9865db2\" id=\"h-the-week-that-was\">The week that was<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-rbc-list is-style-black-disc pad-l-hlf mob-pad-l-hlf\">\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p><strong>Canada entered the trade war in better shape than previously thought<\/strong>. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/business\/article-economy-stronger-footing-trade-war-statscan-revisions-show\/\">StatsCan revised<\/a> GDP for each of the past three years up by about half a point.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>The Canadian government served automaker Stellantis a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/business\/article-stellantiss-decision-to-shift-production-to-illinois-breaches-funding\/\">notice of default<\/a> for shifting production of the Jeep Compass from Brampton, Ont., to Illinois despite receiving hundreds of millions in incentives in recent years. <strong>\u201cStellantis is on the hook,\u201d said Industry Minister M\u00e9lanie Joly. \u201cDefending these jobs means defending Canada\u2019s economic backbone.\u201d<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>While <a href=\"https:\/\/thelogic.co\/news\/exclusive\/japan-ambassador-usmca\/\">speaking<\/a> to business leaders in Ottawa,&nbsp;Japan\u2019s Ambassador to Canada Kanji Yamanouchi noted <strong>the role energy could play in future Canada-Japan relations<\/strong>. \u201cIf we need energy from a county which is difficult to trust or the country which we can trust,&#8221; he said, &#8220;it\u2019s much better for us to have trade with a country with trust.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>Despite $500 million in government loans, <strong>Algoma Steel is laying off 1,050 workers<\/strong> from its plant in Sault Ste. Marie, Ont., in the face of <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cbc.ca\/news\/canada\/sudbury\/northern-ontario-steel-mill-issues-layoff-notices-to-1-000-workers-9.6998768\">\u201cextraordinary and external market forces.\u201d<\/a><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading mar-b-hlf mob-mar-b-hlf has-rbc-dark-blue-tint-color has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-42b71f7814f0d884be1b4bcd8715b52c\" id=\"h-look-what-s-trending\">Look what&#8217;s trending<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"mar-b-hlf mob-mar-b-hlf\">The RBC Economics team did a deep dive this week: \u2018<a href=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/canadian-analysis\/featured-analysis\/insights\/tracking-the-impact-of-u-s-tariffs-on-five-targeted-canadian-industries\/\">Tracking the impact of U.S. tariffs on five targeted Canadian industries<\/a>.\u2019<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"mar-b-hlf mob-mar-b-hlf\"><em>Overall, we track moderately lower manufacturing production and employment in most of the highly tariffed sectors in Canada. These trends have also been much less volatile than international trade flow, that were heavily distorted around when tariffs were implemented (as U.S. importers front-ran purchases to build pre-tariff inventories in Q1.)<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"mar-b-hlf mob-mar-b-hlf\"><em>Selling prices among Canadian manufacturers have generally held up, with foreign buyers paying the bulk of initial tariff costs, but have led to declining U.S. corporate profits this year. We haven\u2019t seen systemically higher U.S. consumer prices but still expect those will show up more significantly in 2026.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"mar-b-hlf mob-mar-b-hlf\"><em>Here\u2019s a breakdown of how five key Canadian industries have fared in their production, employment and selling prices, amid rising U.S. tariffs.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<div id=\"everviz-WGU0Vr3X4\" class=\"everviz-WGU0Vr3X4\" data-view=\"graph\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"mar-t-hlf mob-mar-t-hlf\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Read the full report <a href=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/canadian-analysis\/featured-analysis\/insights\/tracking-the-impact-of-u-s-tariffs-on-five-targeted-canadian-industries\/\">here<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-rbc-dark-blue-tint-color has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-246005ad022575185a44b123f719aa5f\" id=\"h-listen-up-disruptors-the-canada-project\">Listen Up &#8211; Disruptors: The Canada Project<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In a recent episode of&nbsp;<em>Disruptors<\/em>,&nbsp;<strong>John Stackhouse<\/strong>&nbsp;takes listeners to Quebec to meet former premier&nbsp;<strong>Jean Charest<\/strong>&nbsp;and&nbsp;<strong>Eric Desaulniers<\/strong>, founder &amp; CEO of Nouveau Monde Graphite. Together, they explore how a new graphite mine at Matawinie and an integrated refining plant at B\u00e9cancour aim to connect the full chain from rock to anode material in one province\u2014and what that could mean for Canada\u2019s role as a trusted supplier of critical minerals to its G7 allies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>From China\u2019s dominance in graphite refining to Quebec\u2019s push for all\u2011electric mining fleets powered by hydro, this episode looks at how Canada can move from \u201cquarry\u201d to strategic partner in a re\u2011wired global economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"width:100%;height:200px\" class=\"wp-block-rbc-rbc-iframe\"><iframe loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/player.simplecast.com\/feedbcee-4fa5-4235-8497-34cb79b69003?dark=false\" width=\"100%\" height=\"100%\" style=\"border:none\" title=\"Iframe Embed\"><\/iframe><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Also in this week\u2019s edition: How five tariff-exposed industries in Canada are faring<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":315,"featured_media":23495,"parent":0,"menu_order":0,"template":"","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"disable_focal_point":false,"featured_image_focal_point":{"x":0.52,"y":0.68},"advgb_blocks_editor_width":"","advgb_blocks_columns_visual_guide":"","footnotes":""},"rbc_tl_category":[207],"rbc_tl_tag":[],"class_list":["post-23479","rbc_tl","type-rbc_tl","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","rbc_tl_category-the-trade-zone"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.7 (Yoast SEO v26.8) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Trade Zone: Washington\u2019s heavy-oil dilemma -<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Also in this week\u2019s edition: How five tariff-exposed industries in Canada are faring\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" 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