{"id":23152,"date":"2025-11-28T22:57:39","date_gmt":"2025-11-28T22:57:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/?post_type=rbc_tl&#038;p=23152\/how-to-unlock-latin-america"},"modified":"2025-12-02T22:21:57","modified_gmt":"2025-12-02T22:21:57","slug":"happy-birthday-cusma-is-seven-your-lucky-number","status":"publish","type":"rbc_tl","link":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/thought-leadership\/the-trade-zone\/happy-birthday-cusma-is-seven-your-lucky-number\/","title":{"rendered":"Trade Zone: Happy birthday, CUSMA."},"content":{"rendered":"\n<section class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-block  pos-rel\" style=\"border-radius:0px\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-inner-block  section-inner pad-t-0 mob-pad-t-0\" style=\"border-radius:0x\">\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-rbc-dark-blue-tint-color has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-44c0d458a7e9b1616f72a3f31d50ef02\" id=\"h-happy-birthday-cusma-is-seven-your-lucky-number\">Happy birthday, CUSMA. Is seven your lucky number?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>By<em> <\/em><\/strong><em><strong>John Stackhouse<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The much-pilloried Canada-U.S.-Mexico trade agreement was signed seven years ago this weekend\u2014on November 30, 2018. A year later, it was amended to address rules of origin for autos, digital trade, IP, dairy and, who could forget, a sunset clause.\u00a0<br><br>We can all do the math. The December 10, 2019 amendments set in motion a 16-year term for the agreement, with a mandatory review every six years. Which means we\u2019ll see more of a requiem than a birthday bash next week when Mark Carney is in Washington to help kick off the 2026 FIFA World Cup.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But don\u2019t bury CUSMA just yet.<br><br>Despite the U.S. President\u2019s freeze on negotiations, officials from both countries are talking every day and laying the groundwork for what will be an intense 2026. Not many insiders seriously expect CUSMA to go away; they\u2019re working on changes\u2014modifications, enhancements, renovations, depending on your point of view\u2014that will continue to change the fabric of continental commerce.<br><br>Here\u2019s what\u2019s worth noting about CUSMA and its first five years (as it didn\u2019t come into effect until 2020):<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-rbc-list is-style-black-disc\">\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>Canada-U.S. trade in goods is up about 23%;<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>Canada remains the U.S.\u2019s top customer, buying US$440 billion of goods and services in 2024, or 14% of America\u2019s exports;<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>U.S. direct investment in Canada hit $684 billion last year, up from about $400 billion;&nbsp;<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>Canadian direct investment in the U.S. has doubled to $1.3 trillion;<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>between 2020-2024, automakers announced nearly US$175 billion in new investment in North American production, as they reshored supply chains to meet those rules of origin.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>Canada-U.S. energy and agri-food trade has also surged in the 2020s, thanks in part to the certainty delivered by CUSMA. Energy is our biggest export to the U.S. \u2014 by far \u2014 worth $170 billion in 2024, up 50% from 2018. &nbsp;<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>That energy number may be the biggest message Carney takes to Washington. Not by coincidence, he locked arms this week with Alberta Premier Danielle Smith to state boldly to Canadians, and the world, that the country will be exporting a lot more oil to Asia. The U.S. government, and many U.S. shippers, would prefer that crude flow south. But now Carney, with Smith\u2019s help, can exert more leverage in his Washington trade talks.<br><br>Canada always tried to keep energy (and water) off the main trade table, which is focussed more on manufacturing. But in this new age of energy security, it may be what Canada needs more than ever to bend the ball like Beckham.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n\n\n\n<section class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-block  pos-rel\" style=\"border-radius:0px\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-inner-block  section-inner pad-t-0 mob-pad-t-0\" style=\"border-radius:0x\">\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-rbc-dark-blue-tint-color has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-a78f007f6b07f7bfd34a14b1e9865db2\" id=\"h-the-week-that-was\">The week that was<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-rbc-list is-style-black-disc\">\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p><strong>Canada will slap <\/strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2025-11-26\/canada-to-curb-steel-imports-boost-lumber-aid-as-tariffs-hit?srnd=homepage-canada\"><strong>25% tariffs<\/strong><\/a><strong> on about $10 billion worth of steel imports<\/strong> starting December 26, to support a domestic industry that has been battered by U.S. tariffs and cheap Chinese steel.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p><strong>Canada Inc. is shrugging off tariffs. <\/strong>Operating profits of Canadian corporations rose 3.8% (the fastest pace of growth in two years) to $200 billion in the third quarter, according to <a href=\"https:\/\/www150.statcan.gc.ca\/n1\/daily-quotidien\/251124\/dq251124a-eng.htm\">Statistics Canada<\/a>.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p><strong>The U.S. will export a record <\/strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2025-11-28\/us-lng-exports-at-record-high-just-in-time-for-winter-demand\"><strong>10.7 million tonnes<\/strong><\/a><strong> (+40% YoY) of liquefied natural gas (LNG) in November<\/strong>, which is expected to drive down the price of gas in Asia and Europe over the winter.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>Though relations remain chilly, Mark Carney <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ctvnews.ca\/politics\/article\/carney-plans-to-see-trump-next-week-in-washington\/\">confirmed<\/a> that he spoke to Donald Trump this week\u2014but he wouldn\u2019t say if they talked trade. <strong>\u201cI don\u2019t want to over signal things&#8230;they haven\u2019t re-engaged yet,\u201d said Canada\u2019s PM<\/strong>, who will be in Washington next week for a World Cup event alongside the U.S. President.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p><strong>India is looking to both <\/strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2025-11-26\/india-eyes-more-mexico-trade-hopes-to-avoid-claudia-sheinbaum-tariffs\"><strong>ramp up<\/strong><\/a><strong> trade with Mexico <\/strong>and be spared the tariffs that President&nbsp;Claudia Sheinbaum plans to levy on a number of Asian countries.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n\n\n\n<section class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-block  pos-rel\" style=\"border-radius:0px\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-inner-block  section-inner pad-t-0 mob-pad-t-0\" style=\"border-radius:0x\">\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-rbc-dark-blue-tint-color has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-5eca87ff1f1028a5ecc3f0145232b9ce\" id=\"h-look-what-s-trending\">Look what&#8217;s trending&#8230;<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" height=\"623\" width=\"1024\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2025\/11\/TZ-11.28-Graph.png?quality=80&amp;w=1024\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-23162\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2025\/11\/TZ-11.28-Graph.png 4000w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2025\/11\/TZ-11.28-Graph.png?resize=300,183 300w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2025\/11\/TZ-11.28-Graph.png?resize=768,467 768w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2025\/11\/TZ-11.28-Graph.png?resize=1024,623 1024w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2025\/11\/TZ-11.28-Graph.png?resize=1536,935 1536w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2025\/11\/TZ-11.28-Graph.png?resize=2048,1246 2048w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Despite the current climate, not many insiders seriously expect CUSMA to go away<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":315,"featured_media":23184,"parent":0,"menu_order":0,"template":"","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"disable_focal_point":false,"featured_image_focal_point":{"x":0.52,"y":0.68},"advgb_blocks_editor_width":"","advgb_blocks_columns_visual_guide":"","footnotes":""},"rbc_tl_category":[207],"rbc_tl_tag":[],"class_list":["post-23152","rbc_tl","type-rbc_tl","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","rbc_tl_category-the-trade-zone"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.7 (Yoast SEO v26.8) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Trade Zone: Happy birthday, CUSMA. -<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Despite the current climate, not many insiders seriously expect CUSMA to go away\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" 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