{"id":21957,"date":"2025-11-07T18:43:50","date_gmt":"2025-11-07T18:43:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/?post_type=rbc_tl&#038;p=21957\/more-car-trouble"},"modified":"2025-11-12T19:53:10","modified_gmt":"2025-11-12T19:53:10","slug":"redrawing-the-energy-map","status":"publish","type":"rbc_tl","link":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/thought-leadership\/the-trade-zone\/redrawing-the-energy-map\/","title":{"rendered":"Trade Zone: Redrawing the energy map"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<section class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-block  pos-rel\" style=\"border-radius:0px\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-inner-block  section-inner pad-t-0 mob-pad-t-0\" style=\"border-radius:0x\">\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-rbc-dark-blue-tint-color has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-4f5b915e00b47af64bff1de709fbcf58\" id=\"h-will-washington-flinch-if-canada-sells-more-oil-to-asia\">Will Washington flinch if Canada sells more oil to Asia?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><em>By <strong>Shaz Merwat,<\/strong> Director, Energy Policy<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Ottawa\u2019s trade diversification push, laid out in part in the Federal Budget this week, could redraw North America\u2019s energy map\u2014and test its most important economic relationship.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Why it matters<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-rbc-list is-style-black-disc\">\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>The 2025 federal budget sets an explicit goal<strong>: double Canada\u2019s non-U.S. goods exports to about $600 billion by 2035.<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>Mark Carney\u2019s ASEAN tour last week reinforced that ambition<strong>, courting Asian partners and positioning Canada\u2019s growth story squarely in the East.<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>Together, <strong>these moves turn oil and growing LNG exports into instruments of economic diversification<\/strong> and strengthening multilateralism within trade.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>A removal of the oil and gas emissions cap <strong>opens the door to greater oil exports<\/strong> to Asia.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>By the numbers<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-rbc-list is-style-black-disc\">\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>Roughly <strong>75% of Canada\u2019s exports<\/strong> flow to the United States.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>In 2024, <strong>Canadian energy exports totaled $197 billion<\/strong>, with crude oil alone accounting for $147 billion.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>About <strong>91% of Canada\u2019s crude exports remained U.S.-bound<\/strong> through the first seven months of 2025. Canada\u2019s remaining crude exports\u2013about 450,000 barrels a day, about 1% of Asian demand\u2013ends up in Asia.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p><strong>Asia\u2019s oil-import demand i.e., India, China, Japan, and South Korea has climbed by more than 25% since 2015<\/strong> to about 22 mb\/d, driven primarily by China and India\u2019s rapid industrial growth.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>The bigger picture<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-rbc-list is-style-black-disc\">\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p><strong>Heavy crude\u2019s staying power<\/strong>: Electrification is <strong>largely displacing gasoline<\/strong> \u2013 a <em>light barrel<\/em> \u2013 but not diesel, jet fuel or petrochemical feedstocks. That longevity gives <strong>heavy barrels<\/strong> strategic value.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p><strong>Asia\u2019s heavy-oil hub<\/strong>: China is sharply <strong>pivoting into petrochemicals<\/strong>, aiming to take Japanese and Korean market share. India, too, is expected to see <strong>oil imports grow 1.5 million bpd by 2035<\/strong> as both countries seek steady supplies of heavy and sour crude. Today, that supply originates from the <strong>Middle East, Russia and Venezuela<\/strong>, creating an opening for a stable, Western entrant.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p><strong>Investment and offtake matter<\/strong>: Canada\u2019s oil expansion will come from <strong>oil sands growth<\/strong>. Long-term commitments&#8211;both investment and offtake \u2013 will be essential to anchor any future West Coast capacity. With <strong>CNOOC, Sinopec and PetroChina already in Canada<\/strong>, and better ties with India envisioned, how would renewed Asian capital be welcomed in Ottawa\u2026and Washington?<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p><strong>Carbon and shipping constraints<\/strong>: Industrial carbon pricing, expectations for progress on progression\u00a0on the <strong>Pathways carbon capture and storage project<\/strong>, a federal Tanker Ban and tighter <strong>International Maritime Organization<\/strong> <strong>(IMO)<\/strong> shipping regulations all hang in the balance, unanswered.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Bottom line<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Canada\u2019s bid to expand exports through a multilateral trade system could sit awkwardly beside Washington\u2019s more bilateral instincts. For decades, U.S. policy has treated Canadian energy as a secure extension of its own supply chain. As Ottawa builds eastward links and asserts greater agency in global oil markets<strong>, it\u2019s not only testing the flexibility of the North American partnership\u2014it\u2019s testing whether America will allow that independence to take shape<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n\n\n\n<section class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-block  pos-rel\" style=\"border-radius:0px\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-inner-block  section-inner pad-t-0 mob-pad-t-0\" style=\"border-radius:0x\">\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-rbc-dark-blue-tint-color has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-a78f007f6b07f7bfd34a14b1e9865db2\" id=\"h-the-week-that-was\">The week that was<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-rbc-list is-style-black-disc\">\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>The Liberal government\u2019s federal budget earmarked billions of dollars in funding in response to the Trump Administration\u2019s tariffs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-rbc-list is-style-blue-disc\">\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>As part of the shift from \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/budget.canada.ca\/2025\/report-rapport\/chap2-en.html#a10\" data-dig-id=\"LP-21957-5e3ff1c4\" data-dig-category=\"LP\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-label=\"reliance to resilience\" class=\"rbc-link-format\">reliance to resilience<\/a>,\u201d the <strong>budget pledged <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bnnbloomberg.ca\/business\/2025\/11\/04\/canada-promises-6-billion-support-for-businesses-to-reach-new-markets\/\" data-dig-id=\"LP-21957-afb66aa3\" data-dig-category=\"LP\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-label=\"$5&nbsp;billion\" class=\"rbc-link-format\">$5&nbsp;billion<\/a> over seven years to create the Trade Diversification Corridors Fund<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>And an additional billion dollars for an <strong>Arctic Infrastructure Fund<\/strong> with a stated goal, in part, of linking the Canada\u2019s North to global markets.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>The introduction of a $2 billion critical minerals sovereign fund, that would make equity investments, loan guarantees and offtake agreements with mining companies.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>The Supreme Court case pertaining to President Trump\u2019s use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to impose tariffs, including the fentanyl tariffs on Canada, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cbc.ca\/news\/world\/trump-tariffs-supreme-court-9.6968257\" data-dig-id=\"LP-21957-a70b2d69\" data-dig-category=\"LP\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-label=\"kicked off\" class=\"rbc-link-format\">kicked off<\/a>. <strong>Even members on the bench from the conservative majority questioned the U.S. President unilaterally setting tariffs on imports<\/strong>. A decision is likely months away.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>By approving measures to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2025-11-06\/eu-finalizes-farmer-protections-advancing-mercosur-trade-deal\" data-dig-id=\"LP-21957-f4d130a5\" data-dig-category=\"LP\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-label=\"protect farmers\" class=\"rbc-link-format\">protect farmers<\/a>,<strong> the European Union moved a step closer to the Mercosur trade deal, a massive agreement with South American nations that\u2019s been a quarter century in the making.<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>Despite pressure from U.S. tariffs,<strong> Ontario projected a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cbc.ca\/lite\/story\/9.6969263\" data-dig-id=\"LP-21957-6b6da2f9\" data-dig-category=\"LP\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-label=\"smaller deficit\" class=\"rbc-link-format\">smaller deficit<\/a> than expected in its fiscal update. <\/strong>The economic statement also promised a balancing of the books in 2027-28.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>The <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ft.com\/content\/446ebefe-1b8e-4e2d-9bff-6110fcac2dfc\" data-dig-id=\"LP-21957-dc7c16ba\" data-dig-category=\"LP\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-label=\"U.S. Department of the Interior\" class=\"rbc-link-format\">U.S. Department of the Interior<\/a> added silver and copper to its list of critical minerals paving the way for both to be included in future tariff policies.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n\n\n\n<section class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-block  pos-rel\" style=\"border-radius:0px\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-inner-block  section-inner pad-t-0 mob-pad-t-0\" style=\"border-radius:0x\">\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-rbc-dark-blue-tint-color has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-ba5b64aef1c2e47e02e3d5d4835ebccd\" id=\"h-final-word-s\">Final word(s)<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cThe U.S. footprint in global trade will be smaller. The world needs to adjust to that. It will be a bigger adjustment for us.\u201d<br>\u2013<strong>Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem<\/strong>, speaking at The Logic\u2019s Summit this week.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n\n\n\n<section class=\"wp-block-rbc-rbc-legal-collapsible disclaimer\" aria-label=\"Legal Disclaimers\"><div class=\"section-inner\"><p><button class=\"collapse-toggle collapsed\" data-target=\"#collapseDisclaimer\" data-toggle=\"collapse\" aria-expanded=\"false\" aria-controls=\"collapseDisclaimer\" data-dig-id=\"LP-21957-69b3b4d5\" data-dig-category=\"LP\" data-dig-action=\"legal close\" data-dig-label=\"legal close\" action-closed=\"legal close\" action-opened=\"legal open\" label-close=\"legal open\" label-open=\"legal close\"><span>View Legal Disclaimers<\/span><span>Hide Legal Disclaimers<\/span><\/button><\/p><div class=\"collapse-content collapse\" id=\"collapseDisclaimer\"><div class=\"collapse-inner\"><div class=\"table-wpr\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-rbc-rbc-disclaimer-block\"><div class=\"table-row\" id=\"legal-1\"><div class=\"table-cell\"><span class=\"offscreen\">Legal Disclaimer<\/span><sup>1<\/sup><\/div><div class=\"table-cell\">\n<p>Statistics Canada. Annual Survey of Manufactures and Logging, 2024.<\/p>\n<\/div><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-rbc-rbc-disclaimer-block\"><div class=\"table-row\" id=\"legal-2\"><div class=\"table-cell\"><span class=\"offscreen\">Legal Disclaimer<\/span><sup>2<\/sup><\/div><div class=\"table-cell\">\n<p>Statistics Canada. Canadian International Merchandise Trade, 2025.<\/p>\n<\/div><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-rbc-rbc-disclaimer-block\"><div class=\"table-row\" id=\"legal-3\"><div class=\"table-cell\"><span class=\"offscreen\">Legal Disclaimer<\/span><sup>3<\/sup><\/div><div class=\"table-cell\">\n<p>Statistics Canada. Industrial product price index, 2025.<\/p>\n<\/div><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-rbc-rbc-disclaimer-block\"><div class=\"table-row\" id=\"legal-4\"><div class=\"table-cell\"><span class=\"offscreen\">Legal Disclaimer<\/span><sup>4<\/sup><\/div><div class=\"table-cell\">\n<p>Canada Tariff Finder, 2025.<\/p>\n<\/div><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-rbc-rbc-disclaimer-block\"><div class=\"table-row\" id=\"legal-5\"><div class=\"table-cell\"><span class=\"offscreen\">Legal Disclaimer<\/span><sup>5<\/sup><\/div><div class=\"table-cell\">\n<p>Statistics Canada. Canadian International Merchandise Trade, 2025.<\/p>\n<\/div><\/div><\/div>\n<\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/section>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Will Washington flinch if Canada sells more oil to Asia? <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":89,"featured_media":21972,"parent":0,"menu_order":0,"template":"","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"disable_focal_point":false,"featured_image_focal_point":{"x":0.53,"y":0.58},"advgb_blocks_editor_width":"","advgb_blocks_columns_visual_guide":"","footnotes":""},"rbc_tl_category":[207],"rbc_tl_tag":[],"class_list":["post-21957","rbc_tl","type-rbc_tl","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","rbc_tl_category-the-trade-zone"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.7 (Yoast SEO v26.8) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Trade Zone: Redrawing the energy map -<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Will Washington flinch if Canada sells more oil to Asia? 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