{"id":21879,"date":"2025-11-06T20:12:47","date_gmt":"2025-11-06T20:12:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/?post_type=rbc_tl&p=21879\/"},"modified":"2025-11-06T20:17:45","modified_gmt":"2025-11-06T20:17:45","slug":"fall-doesnt-ignite-activity-across-many-canadian-housing-markets","status":"publish","type":"rbc_tl","link":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/thought-leadership\/economics\/fall-doesnt-ignite-activity-across-many-canadian-housing-markets\/","title":{"rendered":"Fall doesn\u2019t ignite activity across many Canadian housing markets"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\n
\n

A defining theme this fall is homebuyers’ measured approach despite lower interest rates and growing confidence that worst-case economic scenarios are less likely.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Local markets appear generally softer than last fall. Yet, early results from real estate boards reveal monthly increases in home resales in several key centres.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Vancouver, Fraser Valley, Calgary, Saskatoon, and Montreal experienced notable upticks in home resales in October from September. Edmonton, Regina, Winnipeg, and Toronto, however, recorded modest declines.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Increased inventory provided buyers with more options and greater negotiating power in Ontario, British Columbia, and parts of Alberta. Softening labour markets and persistently poor affordability continued restraining purchases.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In other regions, low supply and rising home values create different barriers for transactions as buyers contend with limited choice, and higher prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We anticipate these diverging trends will persist through the remainder of year, and potentially into early 2026.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, a firmer recovery should gradually emerge as economic momentum builds, and labour market conditions improve\u2014setting the stage for more robust activity ahead.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/div>\n\n\n\n

Toronto area: Stagnant pace<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n

The Toronto area has been stuck in the last three months with home resales close to 25% below pre-pandemic norms. A small 2.3% monthly decline in October entirely offset September\u2019s gain.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Home prices are also in a holding pattern. The composite MLS Home Price Index continues to decline about 5% from a year ago\u2014which has been the case since spring.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The lack of buyer zeal likely reflects a combination of factors including tariff-related economic uncertainty, grimmer job prospects, lower immigration and little urgency to strike deals when inventory is high, and prices decline.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We think recent interest rate cuts will draw buyers from the sidelines, but any recovery is likely to be spotty with poor affordability still a massive obstacle.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

An abundance of homes for sale relative to demand is weighing on values. We expect this to continue in the coming months with condo prices facing the strongest downward pressure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/div>\n\n\n\n

Montreal area: Breaking from the summer lull?<\/strong><\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n

Montreal buyers were more active last month despite fewer sellers putting properties on the market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We estimate home resales rose more than 5% seasonally adjusted in October from September. This would mark a break from the summer\u2019s constrained activity if sustained.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Low inventory and tight new supply compared to demand maintains strong competition between buyers, fuelling moderate price increases.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Single-detached homes are gaining the most in value with the median price rising 7.3% in the past year. However, condo values are also up, but by a weaker 3.6%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We expect continuing gradual recovery as lower interest rates, and rebuilding confidence drive demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/div>\n\n\n\n

Vancouver area: Fall yet to kick-start market<\/strong><\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n

The overall picture remains cloudy for Vancouver\u2019s market. A pick-up in resales in October\u2014an estimated 7% gain from September seasonally adjusted\u2014only reversed a similar drop the previous month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Buyers\u2019 struggle with poor affordability is keeping them hesitant to make a move under the current uncertain economic environment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The inventory of homes for sale is abundant, providing more options and time for buyers to decide. It also bolsters their hand in negotiating prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Home values have been declining mildly since the start of this year with October\u2019s MLS HPI down 3.4% from a year ago.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We expect high inventory and the ongoing affordability struggle will drive prices down further in the coming months.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/div>\n\n\n\n

Calgary: Buyers have more options<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n

The Calgary market has been largely flat since summer. We estimate home resales increased nearly 5% last month from September seasonally adjusted, but followed a decline in the previous month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A flat trend doesn\u2019t mean that activity is weak, though. October resales were more than 40% above pre-pandemic levels.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Declining prices aren\u2019t necessarily a sign of softness either. They\u2019re mainly a result of strong housing construction.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A ramp-up in homebuilding has significantly boosted supply in Calgary, which now looks more balanced with demand. Inventory of homes for sale has climbed to a seven-year high, creating more competition for sellers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Calgary\u2019s MLS HPI has fallen 4.1% over the past year, and looks set to ease further. A record number of homes under construction will likely continue boosting supply and keep buyers in the driver\u2019s seat for price negotiations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/div>\n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n

Robert Hogue<\/strong> is the Assistant Chief Economist responsible for providing analysis and forecasts on the Canadian housing market and provincial economies.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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