{"id":21427,"date":"2025-10-26T13:33:06","date_gmt":"2025-10-26T13:33:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/?post_type=rbc_tl&#038;p=21427\/the-era-of-messy-managed-trade-is-here"},"modified":"2025-10-27T03:04:08","modified_gmt":"2025-10-27T03:04:08","slug":"more-car-trouble","status":"publish","type":"rbc_tl","link":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/thought-leadership\/the-trade-zone\/more-car-trouble\/","title":{"rendered":"Trade Zone: More car trouble"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<section class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-block  pos-rel\" style=\"border-radius:0px\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-inner-block  section-inner pad-t-0 mob-pad-t-0\" style=\"border-radius:0x\">\n<p><strong>In this edition: <\/strong>AI investments are partially masking the impact of the trade war on global growth \u2013 but Canada is missing out<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-rbc-dark-blue-tint-color has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-64945f46fdd5077d2b0e83a4b6c93234\" id=\"h-bad-news-keeps-piling-up-for-the-auto-industry\">Bad news keeps piling up for the auto industry<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><em>By<strong> Jordan Brennan<\/strong>, Head of RBC Thought Leadership<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The U.S.-Canada auto story just took another hit \u2013 or two.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>On the tails of the Stellantis decision to move production of its Jeep Compass from Brampton to Illinois, this past week\u2019s news is compounding:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-rbc-list is-style-black-disc\">\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>General Motors announced it will end production of its BrightDrop electric delivery vans at the CAMI plant in Ingersoll, <strong>affecting 1,000+ jobs<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>Paccar is laying off <strong>300 workers<\/strong> at its plant in Sainte-Th\u00e9r\u00e8se, Quebec ahead of U.S. heavy-truck tariffs.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>What\u2019s going on?<\/strong> You could interpret these shifts as proof that Trump\u2019s \u201cre-patriation\u201d strategy is working. But dig deeper: both plants were already facing weakness. CAMI had encountered soft demand for BrightDrop vans; Paccar is turbo-exposed to U.S. heavy-truck demand and tariff risk. Brampton had a litany of problems over the years, including softening EV sales.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Where does this leave Canada? <\/strong>Our auto industry sits between two storms:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-rbc-list is-style-black-disc\">\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>China is going <a href=\"https:\/\/ourworldindata.org\/electric-car-sales\" data-dig-id=\"LP-21427-8922ae50\" data-dig-category=\"LP\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-label=\"all in\" class=\"rbc-link-format\">all in<\/a> on EVs\u2014nearly half of all new car sales last year were electric.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>The U.S. and EU EV market are stalling or retrenching\u2014EV penetration in Europe fell to ~21% in 2024 from ~22% the year before.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>The U.S. sits at just 10%. And that was before Trump\u2019s One Big Beautiful bill shredded EV incentives.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>This makes Prime Minister Mark Carney\u2019s pending climate strategy even more consequential. Canada has three broad options:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-rbc-list is-style-black-disc\">\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>Align with the U.S.: back off EVs and count on gas guzzlers to propel the industry forward.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>Follow China: invest aggressively in next-gen batteries and hope EVs are the future.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>Carve a middle path: incentivize hybrid adoption while infrastructure and consumer preferences catch up.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n\n\n\n<section class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-block  pos-rel\" style=\"border-radius:0px\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-inner-block  section-inner pad-t-0 mob-pad-t-0\" style=\"border-radius:0x\">\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-rbc-dark-blue-tint-color has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-a78f007f6b07f7bfd34a14b1e9865db2\" id=\"h-the-week-that-was\">The week that was<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-rbc-list is-style-black-disc\">\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>A <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/canada\/video-ontario-tv-ad-uses-ronald-reagan-recording-to-argue-against-tariffs\/\" data-dig-id=\"LP-21427-e6051927\" data-dig-label=\"60-second ad\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-category=\"LP\" class=\"rbc-link-format\">60-second ad<\/a>, sponsored by the Ontario government and featuring former U.S. President Ronald Reagan disparaging the use of tariffs, <strong>prompted President Donald Trump to immediately cancel all trade talks with Canada<\/strong>. Premier Doug Ford&#8217;s government agreed to take the campaign off the air on Monday. But saying it wasn&#8217;t quick enough, Trump threatened an <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2025\/10\/25\/world\/canada\/trump-tariffs-reagan-ad.html\" data-dig-id=\"LP-21427-be74dac1\" data-dig-label=\"additional 10% tariff hike\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-category=\"LP\" class=\"rbc-link-format\">additional 10% tariff hike<\/a> on Canadian goods.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>Over the next 10 years, Prime Minister <strong>Mark Carney wants to <\/strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2025-10-22\/carney-sets-goal-of-doubling-canada-s-non-us-exports-in-a-decade?srnd=homepage-canada\" data-dig-id=\"LP-21427-7550659f\" data-dig-category=\"LP\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-label=\"double Canada\u2019s exports\" class=\"rbc-link-format\">double Canada\u2019s exports<\/a><strong> to markets outside the U.S.<\/strong>, boosting trade by $300 billion.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p><strong>India <\/strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/politics\/article-carney-invited-to-india-relations-warm-talks-free-trade-pact\/\" data-dig-id=\"LP-21427-2a71797c\" data-dig-category=\"LP\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-label=\"invited \" class=\"rbc-link-format\">invited<\/a><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/politics\/article-carney-invited-to-india-relations-warm-talks-free-trade-pact\/\" data-dig-id=\"LP-21427-2a71797c\" data-dig-category=\"LP\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-label=\"invited \" class=\"rbc-link-format\"> <\/a>Carney to New Delhi to meet with Prime Minister&nbsp;Narendra Modi<\/strong>. According to India\u2019s new High Commissioner, a comprehensive free trade partnership between the two countries&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/admin.eu.poppulo-app.com\/notessa\/rbcservices\/send\/send.do?action=preview&amp;emailId=7408976&amp;showTestMailBanner=false\" data-dig-id=\"LP-21427-c6f9361a\" data-dig-category=\"LP\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-label=\"could result in $50-billion worth of trade annually\" class=\"rbc-link-format\">could result in $50-billion worth of trade annually<\/a>, about double last year\u2019s total.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p><strong>An import ban on liquefied natural gas from Russia<\/strong> is part of a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2025-10-22\/eu-russia-sanctions-that-hit-lng-imports-to-be-adopted-thursday\" data-dig-id=\"LP-21427-cf5508d7\" data-dig-category=\"LP\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-label=\"new package\" class=\"rbc-link-format\">new package<\/a> of sanctions agreed upon by the European Union countries..<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p><strong>President&nbsp;Trump&nbsp;will meet with his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping<\/strong> next Thursday during the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit. This will mark the first meeting of the two since the U.S. President\u2019s re-election.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n\n\n\n<section class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-block  pos-rel\" style=\"border-radius:0px\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-inner-block  section-inner pad-t-0 mob-pad-t-0\" style=\"border-radius:0x\">\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-rbc-dark-blue-tint-color has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-27b6d5d504bd8f99ec4e3a4d96d830e6\" id=\"h-missing-the-ai-boom\">Missing the AI Boom<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>By Farhad Panahov<\/strong>, Economist<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>AI-related investments may have masked the impact of the U.S. trade war on global growth so far, the IMF notes in the latest World Economic Outlook. Since the release of ChatGPT in late 2022, U.S. firms have quadrupled data-centre construction spending to nearly US$40 billion. There are now 5,000 data centres dotted across the U.S. Imports of data centre related equipment is up 50% over the same period. Taiwan accounted for half of the growth when it comes to U.S. imports of digital processing units. Canada, as the chart below indicates, has remained on the sidelines of the AI boom despite a growing number of data centre applications. Demand for related equipment has shown only a small uptick in recent years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" height=\"635\" width=\"1024\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2025\/10\/TZ-10.24-Canada-Lags-Chart.png?quality=80&amp;w=1024\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-21446\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2025\/10\/TZ-10.24-Canada-Lags-Chart.png 4000w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2025\/10\/TZ-10.24-Canada-Lags-Chart.png?resize=300,186 300w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2025\/10\/TZ-10.24-Canada-Lags-Chart.png?resize=768,476 768w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2025\/10\/TZ-10.24-Canada-Lags-Chart.png?resize=1024,635 1024w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2025\/10\/TZ-10.24-Canada-Lags-Chart.png?resize=1536,952 1536w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2025\/10\/TZ-10.24-Canada-Lags-Chart.png?resize=2048,1270 2048w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n\n\n\n<section class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-block  pos-rel\" style=\"border-radius:0px\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-inner-block  section-inner pad-t-0 mob-pad-t-0\" style=\"border-radius:0x\">\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-rbc-dark-blue-tint-color has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-e18524d7faf5e232a739ba86c1bfb4c3\" id=\"h-growing-global\">Growing global<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>By Lisa Ashton<\/strong>, Director of Agriculture Policy<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Canada\u2019s agriculture equipment manufacturing industry is caught up in the U.S. tariff blitz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The industry, which generates $7 billion in annual revenues (more than double from a decade ago), plays a critical role in North America\u2019s food production, providing farmers with the equipment to plant seeds, harvest crops, feed animals, milk cows, and operate an efficient farm business.<sup><a href=\"#legal-1\" data-dig-id=\"LP-21427-8d681f1b\" data-dig-category=\"LP\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-label=\"1\" class=\"rbc-link-format\">1<\/a><\/sup><br><br>The U.S. market dominates exports, accounting for 82% in 2024, which has so far remained unchanged in 2025.<sup><a href=\"#legal-2\" data-dig-id=\"LP-21427-8e7e171a\" data-dig-label=\"2\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-category=\"LP\" class=\"rbc-link-format\">2<\/a><\/sup> But there\u2019s a shift under way. The tariffs have benefitted the domestic industry in some cases by raising domestic demand of Canadian-made products and reducing some input prices, including Canadian steel.<sup><a href=\"#legal-3\" data-dig-id=\"LP-21427-6be43c48\" data-dig-label=\"3\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-category=\"LP\" class=\"rbc-link-format\">3<\/a><\/sup> But the industry is also facing risks of rising costs to produce equipment that has parts from both sides of the border. Manufacturers are wadding through compliance complexity, with U.S. tariffs on some parts such as tractor brakes and Canada\u2019s counter tariffs on parts such as tractor tires.<sup><a href=\"#legal-4\" data-dig-id=\"LP-21427-ca05f197\" data-dig-label=\"4\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-category=\"LP\" class=\"rbc-link-format\">4<\/a><\/sup> For farmers, this means potentially higher input costs for new equipment and parts to repair their existing equipment\u2014forcing decisions on investments that impact agricultural productivity. The shifts come as the industry has already seen a growing trade deficit since 2020, more than doubling in size in 2024.<sup><a href=\"#legal-5\" data-dig-id=\"LP-21427-3e2645f4\" data-dig-label=\"5\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-category=\"LP\" class=\"rbc-link-format\">5<\/a><\/sup><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Manufacturers are setting their eyes on new growth markets, while maintaining relationships with their U.S. customers and supply chain. A renewed commitment in 2025 to the Canada and Mercosur free trade agreement negotiations offers promise for Canadian agricultural manufacturers to expand their presence in Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay, where agriculture production is expanding, and on-farm mechanization is exponentially improving.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n\n\n\n<section class=\"wp-block-rbc-rbc-legal-collapsible disclaimer\" aria-label=\"Legal Disclaimers\"><div class=\"section-inner\"><p><button class=\"collapse-toggle collapsed\" data-target=\"#collapseDisclaimer\" data-toggle=\"collapse\" aria-expanded=\"false\" aria-controls=\"collapseDisclaimer\" data-dig-id=\"LP-21427-69b3b4d5\" data-dig-category=\"LP\" data-dig-action=\"legal close\" data-dig-label=\"legal close\" action-closed=\"legal close\" action-opened=\"legal open\" label-close=\"legal open\" label-open=\"legal close\"><span>View Legal Disclaimers<\/span><span>Hide Legal Disclaimers<\/span><\/button><\/p><div class=\"collapse-content collapse\" id=\"collapseDisclaimer\"><div class=\"collapse-inner\"><div class=\"table-wpr\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-rbc-rbc-disclaimer-block\"><div class=\"table-row\" id=\"legal-1\"><div class=\"table-cell\"><span class=\"offscreen\">Legal Disclaimer<\/span><sup>1<\/sup><\/div><div class=\"table-cell\">\n<p>Statistics Canada. Annual Survey of Manufactures and Logging, 2024.<\/p>\n<\/div><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-rbc-rbc-disclaimer-block\"><div class=\"table-row\" id=\"legal-2\"><div class=\"table-cell\"><span class=\"offscreen\">Legal Disclaimer<\/span><sup>2<\/sup><\/div><div class=\"table-cell\">\n<p>Statistics Canada. Canadian International Merchandise Trade, 2025.<\/p>\n<\/div><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-rbc-rbc-disclaimer-block\"><div class=\"table-row\" id=\"legal-3\"><div class=\"table-cell\"><span class=\"offscreen\">Legal Disclaimer<\/span><sup>3<\/sup><\/div><div class=\"table-cell\">\n<p>Statistics Canada. Industrial product price index, 2025.<\/p>\n<\/div><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-rbc-rbc-disclaimer-block\"><div class=\"table-row\" id=\"legal-4\"><div class=\"table-cell\"><span class=\"offscreen\">Legal Disclaimer<\/span><sup>4<\/sup><\/div><div class=\"table-cell\">\n<p>Canada Tariff Finder, 2025.<\/p>\n<\/div><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-rbc-rbc-disclaimer-block\"><div class=\"table-row\" id=\"legal-5\"><div class=\"table-cell\"><span class=\"offscreen\">Legal Disclaimer<\/span><sup>5<\/sup><\/div><div class=\"table-cell\">\n<p>Statistics Canada. Canadian International Merchandise Trade, 2025.<\/p>\n<\/div><\/div><\/div>\n<\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/section>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Canada\u2019s auto industry is stuck between two storms  <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":89,"featured_media":21449,"parent":0,"menu_order":0,"template":"","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"disable_focal_point":true,"featured_image_focal_point":{"x":0.42,"y":0.66},"advgb_blocks_editor_width":"","advgb_blocks_columns_visual_guide":"","footnotes":""},"rbc_tl_category":[207],"rbc_tl_tag":[],"class_list":["post-21427","rbc_tl","type-rbc_tl","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","rbc_tl_category-the-trade-zone"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.2 (Yoast SEO v27.2) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Trade Zone: More car trouble -<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Canada\u2019s auto industry is stuck between two 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