{"id":20542,"date":"2025-10-03T21:19:43","date_gmt":"2025-10-03T21:19:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/?post_type=rbc_tl&#038;p=20542\/canadas-big-critical-minerals-push"},"modified":"2025-10-07T15:48:24","modified_gmt":"2025-10-07T15:48:24","slug":"what-if-we-dont-get-the-deal-we-want","status":"publish","type":"rbc_tl","link":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/thought-leadership\/the-trade-zone\/what-if-we-dont-get-the-deal-we-want\/","title":{"rendered":"Trade Zone: What if we don&#8217;t get the deal we want?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<section class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-block  pos-rel\" style=\"border-radius:0px\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-inner-block  section-inner pad-t-0 mob-pad-t-0\" style=\"border-radius:0x\">\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-rbc-dark-blue-tint-color has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-5376f98ecfe8cad01816dcc31f7b085a\" id=\"h-noteworthy\">Noteworthy<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>By <strong><em>Jordan Brennan, <\/em><\/strong><em>Head of RBC Thought Leadership<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-rbc-list is-style-black-disc\">\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>Mark Carney is going back to Washington next week. His agenda? Revive \u201csecurity and economic\u201d ties with the U.S., or at the very least bring some relief to Canada\u2019s beleaguered steel, aluminum and auto sectors.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>With security and economic front and centre, other likely topics at the Oval Office could include the Golden Dome missile shield program, something Donald Trump brought up as recently as this week, taking the opportunity to sting <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ctvnews.ca\/video\/2025\/09\/30\/become-the-51st-state-and-you-get-it-for-free-trump-on-canada-joining-golden-dome\/\" data-dig-id=\"LP-20542-f8127e40\" data-dig-category=\"LP\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-label=\"Ottawa\" class=\"rbc-link-format\">Ottawa<\/a> with another \u201c51st state\u201d jibe. Could Carney push steel and aluminum\u2019s importance as part of the defence collaboration with Washington?<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>Dominic LeBlanc, the minister responsible for trade with the U.S., <a href=\"https:\/\/senparlvu.parl.gc.ca\/Harmony\/en\/PowerBrowser\/PowerBrowserV2?fk=669718&amp;globalStreamId=3\" data-dig-id=\"LP-20542-6e03cc4f\" data-dig-category=\"LP\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-label=\"sounded\" class=\"rbc-link-format\">sounded<\/a> upbeat this week about making progress on some of our main pain points with the Trump administration.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>The two partners also launched consultations last month on CUSMA ahead of the tripartite trade deal review. But what happens if the days of tariff-free access to the American market are permanently behind us?<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>It\u2019s not far-fetched to suppose that Canada ends up with a U.K.-style deal, namely an across-the-board &#8216;market access&#8217; tariff of 10%.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>Trump slapped a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.whitehouse.gov\/presidential-actions\/2025\/03\/adjusting-imports-of-automobiles-and-autombile-parts-into-the-united-states\/\" data-dig-id=\"LP-20542-e5800d7e\" data-dig-label=\"25% tariff\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-category=\"LP\" class=\"rbc-link-format\">25% tariff<\/a> on the non-U.S. content of automobile exports (the so-called &#8216;232&#8217; or &#8216;national security&#8217; tariffs) in March. Given that roughly 50% of the content of a Canadian-assembled vehicle comes from the U.S., Canadian autos have faced an effective tariff rate of about 12.5%. That&#8217;s close enough to the 10% market access tariff to warrant comparison. <\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>Both sides are suffering: unemployment in Canada has <a href=\"https:\/\/www150.statcan.gc.ca\/t1\/tbl1\/en\/tv.action?pid=1410045901\" data-dig-id=\"LP-20542-54068917\" data-dig-label=\"ticked up\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-category=\"LP\" class=\"rbc-link-format\">ticked up<\/a> since the trade war began, with the auto-producing municipality of Windsor suffering from the highest unemployment rate among Canada&#8217;s urban centres. South of the border, the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bls.gov\/charts\/employment-situation\/employment-by-industry-monthly-changes.htm?utm_source=chatgpt.com\" data-dig-id=\"LP-20542-b2439a58\" data-dig-label=\"manufacturing sector\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-category=\"LP\" class=\"rbc-link-format\">manufacturing sector<\/a> has shed 40k jobs over the past six months, with additional hits to primary and fabricated metal manufacturing.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n\n\n\n<section class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-block  pos-rel\" style=\"border-radius:0px\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-inner-block  section-inner pad-t-0 mob-pad-t-0\" style=\"border-radius:0x\">\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-rbc-dark-blue-tint-color has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-a78f007f6b07f7bfd34a14b1e9865db2\" id=\"h-the-week-that-was\">The week that was<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-rbc-list is-style-black-disc\">\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p><strong>Canadian softwood lumber producers got hammered with an additional 10% tariff.<\/strong> The <a href=\"https:\/\/rbcservices.newsweaver.com\/TheCurrentAccount\/1kudo3t5ws0zsqy3y8kibs\/external?email=true&amp;a=5&amp;p=65973749&amp;t=29200641\" data-dig-id=\"LP-20542-034f645b\" data-dig-category=\"LP\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-label=\"new levy\" class=\"rbc-link-format\">new levy<\/a> will be added to the current 35.16% anti-dumping tariff that the U.S. imposed on lumber imports from Canada this year.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>The <strong>European Union is expected to <\/strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2025-10-02\/eu-to-propose-doubling-tariff-rate-on-steel-imports-to-50?srnd=homepage-canada\" data-dig-id=\"LP-20542-de2a420b\" data-dig-label=\"announce\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-category=\"LP\" class=\"rbc-link-format\">announce<\/a><strong> a 50% tariff on steel<\/strong> imports next week, aligning the bloc with similar U.S. and Canadian measures.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>At the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2025-10-02\/us-may-ease-tariffs-on-scotch-whisky-to-help-bourbon-industry?srnd=homepage-canada\" data-dig-id=\"LP-20542-31865e1f\" data-dig-category=\"LP\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-label=\"request\" class=\"rbc-link-format\">request<\/a> of UK Prime Minister&nbsp;Keir Starmer, U.S. President Donald Trump is said to be <strong>considering easing the 10% tariff on imported Scotch whisky<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>South Korea\u2019s foreign ministry <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2025-10-02\/seoul-likely-to-unveil-security-pact-with-us-before-trade-deal\" data-dig-id=\"LP-20542-c11cbcd8\" data-dig-category=\"LP\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-label=\"revealed\" class=\"rbc-link-format\">revealed<\/a> that Seoul will likely announce <strong>a new security agreement with the U.S. before finalizing trade talks<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n\n\n\n<section class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-block  pos-rel\" style=\"border-radius:0px\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-inner-block  section-inner pad-t-0 mob-pad-t-0\" style=\"border-radius:0x\">\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-rbc-dark-blue-tint-color has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-ccf624a8d1ed1f056c597f69e5225f5b\" id=\"h-how-to-revive-economic-relations-with-india\">How to revive economic relations with India<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>An India-Canada reset is underway, writes <strong>John Stackhouse<\/strong>, and this time it will require a lot more than handshakes.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"pad-l mob-pad-l\">On trade, India has gone from Canada\u2019s 16th largest partner in 2008 to 10th in 2015 to 7th last year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"pad-l mob-pad-l\">The same can\u2019t be said about Canada, which ranks only 30th for India. Bilateral trade reached $31 billion in 2024, including services, compared to $117 billion with China. The decline in international students\u2014one of the largest sources of Indian revenue for Canada\u2014will further slow that progress, as Canada\u2019s perceived closed-door policy has tarnished our reputation across a generation of educated Indian youth. &nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"pad-l mob-pad-l\">That\u2019s not the only reason Canada\u2019s quest to restart trade negotiations may require patience. An increasingly confident India\u2014and confident Modi\u2014will not compromise easily, especially over issues like intellectual property rights, which India has long viewed as a form of Western colonialism.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"pad-l mob-pad-l\">Those differences aside, the two countries have unique and deep ties, largely through the Indo-Canadian population. Going forward, India will want a more mature relationship, based on interests, especially economic interests. Canada can pursue greater opportunities, too, from heavy oil and LNG to advanced manufacturing and space technologies.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"pad-l mob-pad-l\">A renewed relationship will require both countries to recognize what they bring to each other. It can also stress what they can achieve through alliances and multilateral groups.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Read the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/thought-leadership\/trade-hub-commentary\/how-to-revive-economic-ties-with-india\/\" data-dig-id=\"LP-20542-f2a0d05e\" data-dig-category=\"LP\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-label=\"full column\" class=\"rbc-link-format\">full column<\/a>.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The auto industry provides lessons for where things may be headed <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":89,"featured_media":20554,"parent":0,"menu_order":0,"template":"","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"disable_focal_point":false,"featured_image_focal_point":{"x":0.42,"y":0.66},"advgb_blocks_editor_width":"","advgb_blocks_columns_visual_guide":"","footnotes":""},"rbc_tl_category":[207],"rbc_tl_tag":[],"class_list":["post-20542","rbc_tl","type-rbc_tl","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","rbc_tl_category-the-trade-zone"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.2 (Yoast SEO v27.2) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Trade Zone: What if we don&#039;t get the deal we want? -<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The auto industry provides lessons for where things may be headed\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" 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