{"id":17932,"date":"2025-08-15T18:07:59","date_gmt":"2025-08-15T18:07:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/?post_type=rbc_tl&#038;p=17932\/trade-zone-trumps-48-billion-hit-on-american-buyers"},"modified":"2025-08-22T14:27:18","modified_gmt":"2025-08-22T14:27:18","slug":"canadian-canola-gets-caught-in-the-crossfire","status":"publish","type":"rbc_tl","link":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/thought-leadership\/the-trade-zone\/canadian-canola-gets-caught-in-the-crossfire\/","title":{"rendered":"Trade Zone: Canadian canola gets caught in the crossfire"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<section class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-block  pos-rel\" style=\"border-radius:0px\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-inner-block  section-inner\" style=\"border-radius:0x\">\n<p><strong>In this week\u2019s edition: <\/strong>Three areas where Canada and Mexico can deepen ties, how one smart idea can help alleviate canola farmers\u2019 China challenge, and why infrastructure, not policy, may be holding us back.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-rbc-dark-blue-tint-color has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-150eadad04f617d458edff694aced3b2\" id=\"h-how-to-reset-things-with-mexico\">How to reset things with Mexico<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>By Jordan Brennan<\/strong>, RBC\u2019s Head of Thought Leadership<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Six months into President Trump\u2019s trade war, with no deal in sight, Canada has good reason to deepen its partnership with Mexico. (And, based on a couple of recent trips south, the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cbc.ca\/news\/politics\/anand-champagne-mexico-meeting-1.7601633\" data-dig-id=\"LP-17932-8c7f36e3\" data-dig-category=\"LP\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-label=\"federal\" class=\"rbc-link-format\">federal<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/calgaryherald.com\/news\/politics\/danielle-smith-visits-mexico-strengthen-ties-energy-agriculture\" data-dig-id=\"LP-17932-43738545\" data-dig-category=\"LP\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-label=\"Alberta\" class=\"rbc-link-format\">Alberta<\/a> governments agree).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Despite being Canada\u2019s third largest trading partner, Mexico accounts for <a href=\"https:\/\/www150.statcan.gc.ca\/n1\/pub\/71-607-x\/71-607-x2019005-eng.htm\" data-dig-id=\"LP-17932-c83f357b\" data-dig-category=\"LP\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-label=\"less than 4%\" class=\"rbc-link-format\">less than 4%<\/a> of Canada\u2019s global merchandise trade, the bulk of which is imports. In 2024, Canada shipped just $9 billion of goods to Mexico while importing $47 billion of Mexican goods.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Make no mistake, no country can displace the U.S. when it comes to trading significance for Canada. But we see three broad areas where Canada and Mexico can deepen ties.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-rbc-list is-style-black-disc\">\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p><strong><em>Build Bridges &amp; Infrastructure<\/em>.<\/strong> Canada\u2019s \u2018Maple Eight\u2019 pension funds, with north of $2 trillion in assets, are among the largest in the world and possess expertise in major infrastructure projects like pipelines, rail and port capacity. That\u2019s what Mexico needs: patient capital with financing expertise. Canadian capital is a source of financial influence that could be leveraged to advance geopolitical and trade interests, and enhance commercial ties. Canadian Pacific Kansas City Rail\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cpkcr.com\/en\/media\/Ottensmeyer-feb2025\">investment<\/a> in the Patrick J. Ottensmeyer International Railway Bridge\u2014a $100M project launched earlier this year that deployed innovative technology to improve continental cargo mobility on the U.S.-Mexico border\u2014is a case in point. &nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p><strong><em>Boost Bilateral Trade.<\/em><\/strong><em> <\/em>Many of Canada\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/tradingeconomics.com\/canada\/exports-by-category\" data-dig-id=\"LP-17932-fa28d5db\" data-dig-label=\"export \" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-category=\"LP\" class=\"rbc-link-format\">export <\/a>industries\u2014from energy to steel and aluminum, copper, agri-food, softwood lumber, pulp and paper, and plastics\u2014are products the 130-million strong nation <a href=\"https:\/\/tradingeconomics.com\/mexico\/imports\/canada\" data-dig-id=\"LP-17932-d78ed9ca\" data-dig-label=\"imports\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-category=\"LP\" class=\"rbc-link-format\">imports<\/a>. Enhanced trade flows, underwritten by the current CUSMA, could help several of our stressed industries find relief.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p><strong><em>Unite On CUSMA<\/em>.<\/strong> While the U.S. will remain the cornerstone of North American trade, both Canada and Mexico must prepare for the joint review of the CUSMA, which is officially scheduled for 2026 but may come sooner. Rather than being played against one another, which Trump has successfully orchestrated until now, diplomatic coordination between Canada and Mexico could affirm treaty mechanisms, ensuring duty-free access for CUSMA-compliant goods. Trade irritants in specific industries (think supply management) and trans-shipment for Chinese goods must be managed. With trade nested in a broader framework that includes border security, defence, infrastructure, and supply chain integrity, all three countries can be made better off by deepening their cooperation, ensuring balanced and mutually beneficial trade across the bloc.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n\n\n\n<section class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-block  pos-rel\" style=\"border-radius:0px\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-inner-block  section-inner\" style=\"border-radius:0x\">\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-rbc-dark-blue-tint-color has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-5dc16156c91903bcae97d2dd2626a230\" id=\"h-the-week-in-trade\">The week in trade<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-rbc-list is-style-black-disc\">\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>China tariffs on Canadian canola seed exports have prompted calls on the government to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/business\/economy\/article-canola-industry-seed-tariff-china\/\" data-dig-id=\"LP-17932-24c4d807\" data-dig-category=\"LP\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-label=\"limit imports of vegetable oil\" class=\"rbc-link-format\">limit imports of vegetable oil<\/a>. Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre is also demanding the Carney government <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/politics\/article-canola-industry-tariffs-china-poilievre-carney\/\" data-dig-id=\"LP-17932-2f665757\" data-dig-category=\"LP\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-label=\"cancel a $1-billion loan\" class=\"rbc-link-format\">cancel a $1-billion loan<\/a><strong> BC Ferries is using to buy Chinese-built vessels<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p><strong>China also filed a lawsuit <\/strong>over Canada\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2025-08-15\/china-escalates-canada-trade-spat-with-wto-suit-over-steel?srnd=homepage-canada\" data-dig-id=\"LP-17932-c16ea55b\" data-dig-category=\"LP\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-label=\"import restrictions\" class=\"rbc-link-format\">import restrictions<\/a> on steel.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p><strong>The Ontario government is introducing a $1 billion <\/strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.ctvnews.ca\/toronto\/politics\/queens-park\/article\/ontario-launches-1-billion-emergency-loan-program-for-businesses-most-impacted-by-us-tariffs\/\" data-dig-id=\"LP-17932-c2780111\" data-dig-category=\"LP\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-label=\"emergency loan\" class=\"rbc-link-format\">emergency loan<\/a> program to qualifying businesses in the steel, aluminum, and auto sectors impacted by U.S. tariffs.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>Trade war ripples start to show in <strong>U.S. wholesale prices, which were <\/strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.ft.com\/content\/8af56329-6dbe-4f64-a21e-34c2144d10be\" data-dig-id=\"LP-17932-8ab7fc93\" data-dig-category=\"LP\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-label=\"up 3.3%\" class=\"rbc-link-format\">up 3.3%<\/a>in June YoY, the biggest jump since February.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>As it looks to reshore some of its manufacturing\u2013and create 1,000 U.S. jobs\u2013<strong>GE Appliances is <\/strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.wsj.com\/business\/ge-appliances-plans-3-billion-u-s-investment-to-help-blunt-tariffs-e07b1e73?mod=hp_lead_pos6\" data-dig-id=\"LP-17932-946663b5\" data-dig-category=\"LP\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-label=\"investing $3-billion\" class=\"rbc-link-format\">investing $3-billion<\/a><strong> in its U.S. factories<\/strong> over the next five years.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n\n\n\n<section class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-block  pos-rel\" style=\"border-radius:0px\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-inner-block  section-inner\" style=\"border-radius:0x\">\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-rbc-dark-blue-tint-color has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-a97c6e7a8c47c8cc4642b645b7e1c1d5\" id=\"h-canola-in-the-crossfire\">Canola in the crossfire<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>By Yadullah Hussain<\/strong>, Managing Editor, RBC Thought Leadership<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Canada\u2019s canola crisis has deepened. Beijing\u2019s 75.8% duty on Canada\u2019s most valuable crop comes after its preliminary investigation found Ottawa provided subsidies and preferential treatment to its farmers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The levy on canola seeds adds to Beijing\u2019s 100% tariffs already in effect on Canada\u2019s canola oil and meals. Back in April, the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/thought-leadership\/the-trade-hub\/the-big-chill-how-canola-farmers-are-adapting-to-trade-blows\/\" data-dig-id=\"LP-17932-13e4991f\" data-dig-category=\"LP\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-label=\"Canadian Canola Growers Association\" class=\"rbc-link-format\">Canadian Canola Growers Association<\/a> (CCGA) told us that farmers were freezing investments over fears that a tariff on canola seeds was the \u201cbig shoe to drop.\u201d <a href=\"https:\/\/www.canolacouncil.org\/news\/canola-industry-statement-on-chinas-preliminary-ruling-on-canadian-canola-seed-imports\/\" data-dig-id=\"LP-17932-8c2d36e0\" data-dig-category=\"LP\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-label=\"Chris Davison\" class=\"rbc-link-format\">Chris Davison<\/a>, President and CEO of the Canola Council of Canada, now believes the Chinese market is \u201ceffectively closed\u201d to Canadian canola producers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>That\u2019s another $4.5 billion of commodity trade disrupted and now in search of new, tariff-free markets, joining lumber, aluminum and steel.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Here&#8217;s how Canada\u2019s canola crisis is playing out:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-rbc-list is-style-black-disc\">\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p><strong>Squeezed by two economic giants:<\/strong> Could Beijing be trying to get Ottawa to remove the 100% tariffs on Chinese EVs, and 25% on Chinese steel and aluminum? Beijing will make a final call on canola seed duties in September. But Ottawa is in a bind as it had raised tariffs on imported aluminum and steel to appease Washington\u2019s concern that countries, including China, were Canada as a backdoor to the U.S. market.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p><strong>Meal plan goes awry:<\/strong> China\u2019s canola meal imports from Canada whittled down to 32,506 tonnes in June\u2014from 141,938 tonnes in June 2024\u2014<a href=\"https:\/\/www150.statcan.gc.ca\/n1\/pub\/71-607-x\/2021004\/exp-eng.htm\" data-dig-id=\"LP-17932-d533677a\" data-dig-category=\"LP\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-label=\"Statistics Canada\" class=\"rbc-link-format\">Statistics Canada<\/a> data shows.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p><strong>Oil turmoil: <\/strong>Canada\u2019s canola oil exportsto China amounted to a big fat zero from China in June, industry data shows.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p><strong>Seed money: <\/strong>Canada\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/www.canolacouncil.org\/markets-stats\/exports\/\" data-dig-id=\"LP-17932-916ea907\" data-dig-category=\"LP\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-label=\"canola seed\" class=\"rbc-link-format\">canola seed<\/a> shipment to China had fallen to 237,897 tonnes by June 2025, compared to 651,080 tonnes during the same period last year.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p><strong>Farmers want a cash injection: <\/strong>Farmers should not be asked to borrow their way through a crisis that\u2019s not of their making, the CCGA states. Although that would only exacerbate Beijing\u2019s concerns of Ottawa subsidizing the industry.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Beijing\u2019s concerns of Ottawa subsidizing the industry.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div id=\"everviz-sBO9i2le3\" class=\"everviz-sBO9i2le3\" data-view=\"graph\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-rbc-list is-style-black-disc\">\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p><strong>Ease the pain: <\/strong>Boosting domestic demand and processing capacity of biofuels like Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) presents one opportunity to diversify canola demand as a biofuel feedstock. According to <strong>Lisa Ashton<\/strong>, our Agriculture Policy Lead: \u201cCanada should consider looking at other countries\u2019 playbooks for expanding domestic biofuel markets and agriculture\u2019s role in its growth.\u201d Brazil, Japan, and Malaysia are all expanding processing capacity for biofuels including SAF and increasing required biodiesel and ethanol blends in convention fuels.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n\n\n\n<section class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-block  pos-rel\" style=\"border-radius:0px\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-inner-block  section-inner\" style=\"border-radius:0x\">\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-rbc-dark-blue-tint-color has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-4c20b99361fcf8a940140b485f320a81\" id=\"h-our-limitation-is-not-policy-but-infrastructure\">\u201cOur limitation is not policy, but infrastructure\u201d<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><em>Jordan Brennan<\/em><\/strong><em>, <\/em>RBC\u2019s Head of Thought Leadership, recently connected with <strong>Trevor Tombe<\/strong>, at the University of Calgary\u2019s School of Public Policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Q: What can the federal government do to lessen our dependence on the U.S.?<br><\/strong><strong>A: <\/strong>We face significant constraints. Canada&#8217;s ability to expand trade with other countries through trade agreements is largely exhausted. India and China, for geopolitical reasons, are unlikely prospects in the near term. Our limitation is not policy, but infrastructure. Geography remains a stubborn fact that requires substantial infrastructure investment. Expanding upon our rail and port infrastructure is a renewed priority federally but will take many years to move the needle.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Q: What do you see as the long-term impact of Trump\u2019s tariff wars globally?<\/strong><br><strong>A: <\/strong>The uncertainty from tariff threats alone dampens investment. That itself may lead to a permanent reduction in Canadian productivity if investors perceive a higher level of risk in Canada due to uncertain market access in the U.S. Globally, if there&#8217;s one lesson from the 1930s, it&#8217;s that protectionist spirals deepen economic pain for all participants. While tariffs might temporarily boost some U.S. industries, the costs to global efficiency and consumer welfare would be substantial.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Q: Are there any new insights that challenge the prevailing wisdom about the broad-based benefits of free trade?<\/strong><br><strong>A:<\/strong> The fundamental case for liberalized trade remains strong. But it requires resources, production, and employment to shift across sectors and regions. Some of my work suggests between 1-2% of Canada&#8217;s workforce could migrate across provinces in response to eliminating internal trade costs. While these moves are productivity-enhancing for the overall economy in the long run, there are adjustment costs for individuals and some affected businesses impose significant short-term costs on those individuals.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Related: Read Brennan and Tombe\u2019s discussion on <a href=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/thought-leadership\/the-trade-zone\/trade-zone-15-is-the-new-35\/\">interprovincial trade barriers<\/a>.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n\n\n\n<section class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-block  pos-rel\" style=\"border-radius:0px\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-inner-block  section-inner\" style=\"border-radius:0x\">\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-rbc-dark-blue-tint-color has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-bfc880d9b88a005bc9df3cc2e639e158\" id=\"h-bottom-line\">Bottom line<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Canada imported <a href=\"https:\/\/www.wsj.com\/business\/us-alcohol-industry-canada-boycott-71dbd1e0?mod=hp_lead_pos9\" data-dig-id=\"LP-17932-998f6b15\" data-dig-category=\"LP\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-label=\"$43.4 million of distilled spirits\" class=\"rbc-link-format\">$43.4 million of distilled spirits<\/a> from the U.S.\u2014that\u2019s down 62% June YoY. American wine imports were also down 67%.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Plus: Three key areas where Canada and Mexico can deepen ties.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":89,"featured_media":17939,"parent":0,"menu_order":0,"template":"","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"disable_focal_point":false,"featured_image_focal_point":{"x":0.7,"y":0.63},"advgb_blocks_editor_width":"","advgb_blocks_columns_visual_guide":"","footnotes":""},"rbc_tl_category":[207],"rbc_tl_tag":[],"class_list":["post-17932","rbc_tl","type-rbc_tl","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","rbc_tl_category-the-trade-zone"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.7 (Yoast SEO v26.8) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Trade Zone: Canadian canola gets caught in the crossfire - RBC<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Plus: Three key areas where Canada and Mexico can deepen ties.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/thought-leadership\/the-trade-zone\/canadian-canola-gets-caught-in-the-crossfire\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Trade Zone: Canadian canola gets caught in the crossfire\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Plus: Finding new trade partners for Canada is critical. 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