{"id":16797,"date":"2025-07-18T15:15:38","date_gmt":"2025-07-18T15:15:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/?post_type=rbc_tl&#038;p=16797\/trade-zone-the-great-canadian-stampede-to-find-new-trading-partners"},"modified":"2025-07-30T19:52:04","modified_gmt":"2025-07-30T19:52:04","slug":"trade-zone-avoiding-world-war-of-trade","status":"publish","type":"rbc_tl","link":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/thought-leadership\/the-trade-zone\/trade-zone-avoiding-world-war-of-trade\/","title":{"rendered":"Trade Zone: Avoiding World War of Trade"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<section class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-block  pos-rel\" style=\"border-radius:0px\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-inner-block  section-inner\" style=\"border-radius:0x\">\n<p><strong>In this week\u2019s edition: <\/strong>Four potential global trade scenarios, Canada\u2019s agri-food rebound, and why copper is in the crosshairs<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n\n\n\n<section class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-block  pos-rel\" style=\"border-radius:0px\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-inner-block  section-inner pad-t-0 mob-pad-t-0\" style=\"border-radius:0x\">\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-rbc-dark-blue-tint-color has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-a3e0f4e9c548b565b852df051a402b82\" id=\"h-trade-war-fallout\">Trade war fallout<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>By Jordan Brennan, Head of Thought Leadership<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>What if the U.S. is no longer at the centre of the global trading system? That was one of the ideas explored at a Fields Institute-hosted roundtable I attended this week in Toronto.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The U.S. has wielded tremendous soft power through its custody of the global trading system for the better part of 80 years. That came to an end on April 2<sup>nd<\/sup> with President Trump\u2019s \u2018Liberation Day\u2019 tariffs, according to one speaker. The speaker went on to claim that the end of American leadership would beget four possible scenarios:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-rbc-list is-style-black-disc\">\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p><em><strong>World War Trade<\/strong><\/em>. This is a 1930s-style scenario where other countries follow the U.S. in ignoring WTO policies. Unless resolved in the coming weeks, Trump\u2019s tariffs will likely provoke retaliatory tariffs from other countries in a tit-for-tat escalation. In one scenario, the trigger is Chinese retaliation against the anti-China provisions the U.S. is seeking from trading partners (e.g., the U.S.-U.K. deal attempts to lock China out of critical supply chains). This nightmarish scenario, thankfully, is the least likely.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p><strong>Managed multi-lateral drift.<\/strong> This is the current base case. The world sees more protectionism from the U.S. and more liberalization everywhere else. The U.S. stands alone in violating the WTO rules, but everyone else plays nice.&nbsp;<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p><em><strong>Fighting trade blocs. <\/strong><\/em>Further geo-political fragmentation leads to the creation of adversarial trade blocs. Within the blocs, there is some measure of cooperation and openness. Between the blocs, we see WTO non-compliance. Three main blocs will form: a U.S.-centric bloc with Canada and Mexico, a pan-European bloc, and a China-led bloc. Japan is a wildcard.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p><strong>Re-globalization without America<\/strong>. This is the most likely scenario. The U.S. will become a more closed economy, trading less with the world. Given that the U.S. only accounts for 15% of global trade, this is not fatal to the international trading system.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>It\u2019s not clear what these scenarios would mean for Canada. With more than 75% of our merchandise exports headed to our American neighbours, it is difficult to imagine a future in which the U.S. does not remain Canada\u2019s largest and most important trading partner.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It is possible, strangely, that Canada\u2019s position with the United States is strengthened on a relative basis, given that U.S. tariffs on Canada may end up being considerably lower than those on America\u2019s EU and Asian trading partners. Canada could end up trading <em>more<\/em> with the United States, not less, despite the tariffs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It\u2019s also possible, again unexpectedly, that foreign direct investment in Canada is strengthened\u2014think auto\u2014as countries that were happy to pay the ~3% most favoured nation tariff rate now face a 25% tariff wall and will therefore look to pick up spare capacity within North America to work around that wall.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>What\u2019s clear is that Canada needs a strong \u2018Plan B\u2019 and \u2018Plan C\u2019 in the current negotiations with President Trump. Free trade with the U.S. is the preferred outcome, but Canada needs a menu of options if we cannot secure a satisfactory deal.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n\n\n\n<section class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-block  pos-rel\" style=\"border-radius:0px\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-inner-block  section-inner pad-t-0 mob-pad-t-0\" style=\"border-radius:0x\">\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-rbc-dark-blue-tint-color has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-a78f007f6b07f7bfd34a14b1e9865db2\" id=\"h-the-week-that-was\">The week that was<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-rbc-list is-style-black-disc\">\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2025-07-15\/carney-hints-tariffs-will-stay-sees-talks-with-us-ramping-up?srnd=homepage-canada\" data-dig-id=\"LP-16797-c467b70e\" data-dig-category=\"LP\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-label=\"Prime Minister Mark Carney\" class=\"rbc-link-format\">Prime Minister Mark Carney<\/a> acknowledged that <strong>a deal with the U.S. isn\u2019t likely to result in the elimination of all tariffs.<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.ft.com\/content\/82e32f7c-47e2-4e96-bb53-a58377e18aa9\" data-dig-id=\"LP-16797-29cf55a3\" data-dig-category=\"LP\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-label=\"Trump\u2019s tariffs\" class=\"rbc-link-format\">Trump\u2019s tariffs<\/a> have <strong>raked in nearly US$50 billion for the U.S.<\/strong>\u2014so far.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>Mexican President <a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/world\/americas\/mexico-plans-stronger-trade-collaboration-with-canada-after-trump-tariff-threats-2025-07-16\/\" data-dig-id=\"LP-16797-d1bb403f\" data-dig-category=\"LP\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-label=\"Claudia Sheinbaum\" class=\"rbc-link-format\">Claudia Sheinbaum<\/a> said she and Carney have spoken about <strong>Mexico and Canada increasing collaboration<\/strong> around trade.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>A dozen EU nations are considering so-called a<a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2025-07-16\/momentum-builds-in-eu-to-use-its-most-powerful-trade-tool-on-us\" data-dig-id=\"LP-16797-2697392d\" data-dig-category=\"LP\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-label=\"nti-coercion instrument\" class=\"rbc-link-format\">nti-coercion instrument<\/a>, that could include new taxes on big U.S. tech firms or investment restrictions, if a deal with the U.S. isn&#8217;t struck by Aug. 1.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n\n\n\n<section class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-block  pos-rel\" style=\"border-radius:0px\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-inner-block  section-inner pad-t-0 mob-pad-t-0\" style=\"border-radius:0x\">\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-rbc-dark-blue-tint-color has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-6bca0a631cf2e9a429e24dc1cac1dad8\" id=\"h-protein-pop\">Protein pop<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Canada\u2019s agri-food exports rebounded in May after plunging in April, with meat and seafood exports leading the way. New Statistics Canada <a href=\"https:\/\/www150.statcan.gc.ca\/n1\/daily-quotidien\/250703\/dq250703a-eng.htm?utm_source=chatgpt.com\">merchandise trade data<\/a> shows meat exports were up 13% in May\u2014largely spurred by pork exports to Japan\u2014while packaged seafood splashed up to 52.9% after a year-long decline.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Why that matters?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-rbc-list is-style-black-disc\">\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p><strong>Commodities travel the path of least resistance, but adjustments can take time.<\/strong> Thanks to the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.international.gc.ca\/trade-agreements-accords-commerciaux\/assets\/pdfs\/tpp-ptp\/2-D.Japan-Tariff-Elimination-Schedule.PDF\" data-dig-id=\"LP-16797-8941039c\" data-dig-category=\"LP\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-label=\"CPTPP,\" class=\"rbc-link-format\">CPTPP,<\/a> Japan&#8217;s duty on Canadian fresh, chilled or frozen pork of <a href=\"https:\/\/agriculture.canada.ca\/en\/international-trade\/market-intelligence\/asia\/cptpp\/cptpp-benefits-canadian-beef-and-pork-exporters\" data-dig-id=\"LP-16797-f42500db\" data-dig-category=\"LP\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-label=\"4.3% is gradually phasing out by April 2027\" class=\"rbc-link-format\">4.3% is gradually phasing out by April 2027<\/a>, specifically for products that are \u201cover-gate,\u201d which is Japan\u2019s minimum pricing system for all pork imports. Processed products like sausages that faced tariffs of up to 10% pre-CPTPP, are now fully phased out. Canadian prepared and preserved swine meat, including lunch meat, to the U.S. dropped from $4 million in January to $2.4 million in May, while the same category of exports to Japan rose from $3.2 million in January to $8 million in May.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p><strong>Canada\u2019s agri-food trade diversification efforts may not be that diversified, yet.<\/strong> The U.S. remains an important partner, especially for highly perishable products like greenhouse tomatoes. Yet, Canada\u2019s agri-food exporters for many categories are on the move and looking to grow in markets where access is already strong, and logistics are in place, including Japan, Mexico, and South Korea. Further unlocks could be markets on the edges with high growth potential for Canada driven by expanded market access. For example, Columbia and Taiwan, both outside <a href=\"https:\/\/agriculture.canada.ca\/en\/sector\/animal-industry\/red-meat-and-livestock-market-information\/trade\/red-meat-exports-country\" data-dig-id=\"LP-16797-1cc1bf59\" data-dig-label=\"of Canada\u2019s top 5 markets for beef and veal export\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-category=\"LP\" class=\"rbc-link-format\">of Canada\u2019s top 5 markets for beef and veal export<\/a>, have grown in export value by 236% and 57%, respectively, between May 2024 and 2025.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Bottom line:<\/strong> With a tariff-free North America looking more unlikely, Canada continues to diversify its agri-food trading partners and appears to be focused on growing in existing tariff-free or low-tariff markets.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n\n\n\n<section class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-block  pos-rel\" style=\"border-radius:0px\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-inner-block  section-inner pad-t-0 mob-pad-t-0\" style=\"border-radius:0x\">\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-rbc-dark-blue-tint-color has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-6084341d63ac1a36be600a8cdae58182\" id=\"h-the-big-number\">The big number<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-84\">84<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/angusreid.org\/canada-united-states-trade-carney-trump-tariff-supply-management\/\" data-dig-id=\"LP-16797-fb9d1043\" data-dig-category=\"LP\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-label=\"Percentage of Canadians\" class=\"rbc-link-format\">Percentage of Canadians<\/a> who <strong>don\u2019t expect the Trump administration to negotiate in good faith<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n\n\n\n<section class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-block  pos-rel\" style=\"border-radius:0px\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-inner-block  section-inner pad-t-0 mob-pad-t-0\" style=\"border-radius:0x\">\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-rbc-dark-blue-tint-color has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-109cf0dbb9cf8198864b07979462b066\" id=\"h-copper-in-the-crosshairs\">Copper in the crosshairs<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Copper is now a target of the Trump Administration\u2019s AI-centered energy and resource security agenda, where the commodity\u2019s utility as an electrical conductor makes it a priority for the transformers, transmission lines, and battery technologies that will underpin the buildout of AI infrastructure. By the end of the month copper imports into the U.S. could face 50% tariffs, the latest metal to become front and centre in a realignment of resource supply chains.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-rbc-list is-style-black-disc\">\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>The <strong>U.S. imported 42% of its refined copper on average<\/strong> in the past four years. But with 5% of global reserves, there is scope to expand domestic production.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>Canada occupies a relatively small share of global copper refining, responsible for <strong>1.2% of refinery production in 2024, and approximately 0.8% of reserves<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>Canada is a major supplier of copper to the U.S. in the form of ore and concentrate, refined copper, copper scrap, and copper matte and precipitate, and exports to Asia and Europe. <strong>Canadian exports to the U.S. were worth $4.8 billion in 2023<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>The effect of the copper tariffs will be felt less in some provinces. B.C., for instance, hosts Canada\u2019s largest copper mines but doesn\u2019t export significantly to the U.S. But others could be more susceptible. <strong>Quebec hosts a copper smelter and a refinery and accounted for 80% of copper exports to the U.S. in 2024<\/strong>, according to data from Innovation, Science, and Economic Development Canada.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p><strong>Canadian mines produced 508,000 tonnes of copper in 2023<\/strong>, and the country counted <a href=\"https:\/\/natural-resources.canada.ca\/sites\/admin\/files\/documents\/2025-03\/Map of top 100_E_2025_online.pdf\" data-dig-id=\"LP-16797-4597d0a8\" data-dig-category=\"LP\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-label=\"14 copper deposits\" class=\"rbc-link-format\">14 copper deposits<\/a> among its top 100 mineral exploration projects in 2024. Expanding Canada\u2019s reserve base and bringing more Canadian copper to market, whether at home or abroad, will be important for achieving our energy and AI ambitions.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n\n\n\n<section class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-block  pos-rel\" style=\"border-radius:0px\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-inner-block  section-inner pad-t-0 mob-pad-t-0\" style=\"border-radius:0x\">\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-rbc-dark-blue-tint-color has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-1e99511e80b0ef5910f5c642e4ea3a84\" id=\"h-eye-on-africa\">Eye on Africa<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Africa has long been a battleground for the China and the U.S. as they vie for economic and trade influence in the continent. The competition has only intensified as the two countries seek access to minerals, from gold to graphite. The U.S. is trying to break Chinese sway in the continent by brokering a peace between Rwanda and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). Washington also recently wrapped up a U.S.-Africa Business Summit with <a href=\"https:\/\/www.state.gov\/releases\/office-of-the-spokesperson\/2025\/06\/record-breaking-u-s-africa-business-summit-yields-2-5-billion-in-deals-and-commitments\/\" data-dig-id=\"LP-16797-acdd44ef\" data-dig-category=\"LP\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-label=\"US$2.5-billion investment commitment, that included \" class=\"rbc-link-format\">US$2.5-billion investment commitment, that included <\/a>US$1.5 billion towards a 1,150-kilometre transmission line from Angola to deliver 1.2 gigawatt electricity to power DRC mining sites. In return, the U.S. gets access to DRC\u2019s natural resources that include two-thirds of global cobalt that power EV batteries. It\u2019s also the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nasdaq.com\/articles\/top-5-tantalum-mining-countries-updated-2024\" data-dig-id=\"LP-16797-4de8e4e7\" data-dig-category=\"LP\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-label=\"largest supplier of tantalum\" class=\"rbc-link-format\">largest supplier of tantalum<\/a>\u2013a critical metal used in capacitors\u2013and the world\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/www.iea.org\/data-and-statistics\/data-tools\/critical-minerals-data-explorer\" data-dig-id=\"LP-16797-4afe9dc2\" data-dig-category=\"LP\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-label=\"second largest\" class=\"rbc-link-format\">second largest<\/a> supplier of copper.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Africa could prove to be a new, thriving trading destination as Ottawa casts its export net wider. There are opportunities abound:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-rbc-list is-style-black-disc\">\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>Canada-Africa trade has tripled over the past 25 years, but still accounts for a mere <strong>1% of Canada\u2019s total trade volume<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>Canada could sell <strong>cleantech <\/strong>to a continent that remains heavily dependent on coal, especially in growing economies like South Africa. May be LNG, too.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>Canada can also <strong>export mining equipment and clean extraction methods<\/strong> in resource-rich African nations.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p><strong>Health-tech and pharma services<\/strong> could also boost digital health services, especially in the continent\u2019s underserved regions. <strong>Edu-tech exports<\/strong> to a continent with the world\u2019s youngest population could prove to be another winner.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>Africa\u2019s critical minerals supplies <strong>offer diverse range of inputs to EV battery supply chains, <\/strong>offering analternative to Chinese-controlled resources.&nbsp;<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" height=\"598\" width=\"1024\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2025\/07\/Trade-Zone-Graphic-7.18.png?quality=80&amp;w=1024\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-16816\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2025\/07\/Trade-Zone-Graphic-7.18.png 4000w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2025\/07\/Trade-Zone-Graphic-7.18.png?resize=300,175 300w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2025\/07\/Trade-Zone-Graphic-7.18.png?resize=768,449 768w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2025\/07\/Trade-Zone-Graphic-7.18.png?resize=1024,598 1024w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2025\/07\/Trade-Zone-Graphic-7.18.png?resize=1536,897 1536w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2025\/07\/Trade-Zone-Graphic-7.18.png?resize=2048,1196 2048w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n\n\n\n<section class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-block  pos-rel\" style=\"border-radius:0px\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-inner-block  section-inner pad-t-0 mob-pad-t-0\" style=\"border-radius:0x\">\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-rbc-dark-blue-tint-color has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-408f946805dca92426d5663950f17857\" id=\"h-final-word\">Final word<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cWe\u2019ve been clear from the get-go that supply management is off the table.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u2014<strong>Fran\u00e7ois-Philippe Champagne<\/strong>, Canada\u2019s Finance Minister, on the protections in place on dairy and agriculture not being part of the U.S\/Canada negotiations.&nbsp;<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Canada needs more than a \u2018Plan A\u2019 in a fragmented global trade order<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":89,"featured_media":16809,"parent":0,"menu_order":0,"template":"","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"disable_focal_point":false,"featured_image_focal_point":{"x":0.4,"y":0.79},"advgb_blocks_editor_width":"","advgb_blocks_columns_visual_guide":"","footnotes":""},"rbc_tl_category":[207,116],"rbc_tl_tag":[],"class_list":["post-16797","rbc_tl","type-rbc_tl","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","rbc_tl_category-the-trade-zone","rbc_tl_category-uncategorized"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.2 (Yoast SEO v27.2) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Trade Zone: Avoiding World War of Trade -<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Canada needs more than a \u2018Plan A\u2019 in a fragmented global trade order\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link 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