{"id":15660,"date":"2025-06-27T15:35:09","date_gmt":"2025-06-27T15:35:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/?post_type=rbc_tl&#038;p=15660\/"},"modified":"2025-06-27T16:54:04","modified_gmt":"2025-06-27T16:54:04","slug":"trade-zone-when-the-walls-come-tumbling-down","status":"publish","type":"rbc_tl","link":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/thought-leadership\/the-trade-zone\/trade-zone-when-the-walls-come-tumbling-down\/","title":{"rendered":"Trade Zone: When the walls come tumbling down"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<section class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-block  pos-rel\" style=\"border-radius:0px\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-inner-block  section-inner\" style=\"border-radius:0x\">\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-oh-canada-we-ve-got-ourselves-a-deal\">Oh Canada, we\u2019ve got ourselves a deal<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-rbc-list is-style-black-disc\">\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>At long last, and just in time for Canada Day, the federal government is <strong>taking steps to tear down<\/strong> interprovincial trade barriers.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>Bill C-5, the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.parl.ca\/documentviewer\/en\/45-1\/bill\/C-5\/third-reading\">Free Trade and Labour Mobility in Canada Act<\/a>, has become law. And while removing federal barriers to interprovincial trade is a positive step, <strong>history suggests obstacles will remain<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>\u2018Special interests\u2019 groups will mobilize behind the scenes to secure carve-outs from the legislation, <strong>which may undermine its effectiveness<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>More challenging still is the commercial reality on the ground. As Canada\u2019s experience in free trade shows, <strong>the mere lowering of tariff walls does not automatically boost trade flows<\/strong>. Canada liberalized trade with Europe and Asia, for example, but Canadian exports to these regions have not meaningfully increased.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>So can we expect to see more Okanagan Riesling on shelves east of the Rockies? <strong>It\u2019s probably too early to pop the cork and celebrate<\/strong> that victory.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www150.statcan.gc.ca\/n1\/daily-quotidien\/250319\/cg-c001-eng.htm\">Statistics Canada<\/a> data shows that <strong>Canadians trade less with each other than they do with the rest of the world, in percentage terms<\/strong>. In the \u201980\u2019s, roughly half of Canada\u2019s total trade was interprovincial. Following a series of FTAs, that proportion has dipped closer to a third.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>Internal barriers may help explain why trade between provinces has lagged trade with the wider world. RBC Economics <a href=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/thought-leadership\/six-questions-about-the-significance-of-interprovincial-trade-barriers-in-canada\/\">concluded<\/a> earlier this year that estimates may differ about the economic gains associated with reducing internal trade barriers, <strong>but what seems certain is that free trade among the provinces is a pro-growth policy<\/strong>\u2014particularly for the smaller provinces.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div id=\"everviz-EgZTvApHX\" class=\"everviz-EgZTvApHX\" data-view=\"graph\"><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n\n\n\n<section class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-block  pos-rel\" style=\"border-radius:0px\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-inner-block  section-inner pad-t-0 mob-pad-t-0\" style=\"border-radius:0x\">\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-the-week-that-was\">The week that was<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-rbc-list is-style-black-disc\">\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>In addition to having her term as Canada\u2019s Ambassador to the U.S. extended, <strong>Kirsten Hillman was named Canada\u2019s <\/strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/politics\/article-kirsten-hillman-staying-on-canada-ambassador-to-washington\/\"><strong>chief negotiator<\/strong><\/a> in trade talks with the U.S.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p><strong>Complaints from U.S. manufacturers that China was <a href=\"https:\/\/www.wsj.com\/world\/china\/china-rare-earths-exports-2fd0dab4?mod=hp_lista_pos4\" data-dig-id=\"LP-15660-2e3d6d8a\" data-dig-category=\"LP\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-label=\"limiting the release\" class=\"rbc-link-format\">limiting the release<\/a> of rare-earth elements<\/strong> despite its trade truce with Washington prompted Beijing to promise on Friday that it would <a href=\"https:\/\/www.wsj.com\/world\/asia\/china-to-approve-exports-of-controlled-items-to-u-s-b2f37389?mod=hp_lead_pos2\" data-dig-id=\"LP-15660-1224d175\" data-dig-category=\"LP\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-label=\"approve U.S applications\" class=\"rbc-link-format\">approve U.S applications<\/a>. This comes a day after Trump announced that the U.S. and China had \u201cjust signed\u201d a deal.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>The U.K. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ft.com\/content\/849ccb1a-ed2b-4ba6-b78c-72b92dfa95b4\">unveiled<\/a> a <strong>broader trade strategy focused on its \u00a3500 billion a year service exports sector <\/strong>and the desire to land deals with a range of partners, including the six-member Gulf Cooperation Council.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p><strong>Trump threatened Spain with <\/strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.ft.com\/content\/5908b7ed-d971-4bde-9458-3d3193f456fe\"><strong>increased tariffs<\/strong><\/a>, after Spanish Prime Minister Pedro S\u00e1nchez rejected NATO\u2019s new target of spending 5% of GDP on defence.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>Donald Trump, at the urging of oil executives, is <strong>pushing to <\/strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.wsj.com\/business\/energy-oil\/trump-goes-to-bat-for-big-oil-on-climate-rules-in-eu-trade-talks-e38b35ec\"><strong>rollback climate laws<\/strong><\/a> as part of U.S.-EU trade negotiations.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n\n\n\n<section class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-block  pos-rel\" style=\"border-radius:0px\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-inner-block  section-inner pad-t-0 mob-pad-t-0\" style=\"border-radius:0x\">\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-the-big-number\">The big number<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading mar-t-qtr mob-mar-t-qtr has-rbc-bright-blue-color has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-b60ca93de653dc2551484db2a76143be\" id=\"h-us-179-2-billion\">US$179.2 billion<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Total value of U.S. exports in May, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ft.com\/content\/a2a4ef7c-3971-471c-99e4-3d806cf6b0b1\">down 5.2%<\/a> versus April \u2013 that\u2019s the <strong>sharpest month-over-month decline since 2000<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n\n\n\n<section class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-block  pos-rel\" style=\"border-radius:0px\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-inner-block  section-inner pad-t-0 mob-pad-t-0\" style=\"border-radius:0x\">\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-global-oil-and-gas-trade-just-got-risky-again\">Global oil and gas trade just got risky\u2014again<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>As Iran and Israel traded missiles and the U.S. bombed three of Tehran\u2019s nuclear facilities, oil tanker rate premiums spiked 83%. And with major LNG exporter Qatar briefly getting ensnared in the crisis, another element of risk was added to the global oil and gas trade.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>While oil tanker rates cooled off a couple days after the ceasefire, this volatility could remain a perennial issue hovering over global commodity production\u2014and prices. Meanwhile, LNG tanker rates, due to re-routing and summer demand, remain elevated. By 2030, almost 25% of global LNG flows are expected to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical oil and gas channel in the Middle East, based on Rystad data.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Canada has an opportunity to help de-risk global supply from both a geopolitical and a concentration of supply standpoint\u2014a proposition valued by European and Asian buyers, as we highlighted in our recent report <a href=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/thought-leadership\/the-growth-project\/a-g7-strategy-for-natural-gas-four-scenarios-for-energy-security-in-the-2040s\/\"><em>A G7+ Strategy for Natural Gas<\/em><\/a><em>: Four Scenarios for Energy Security in the 2040s.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>And Canada would soon become a bona fide member of the LNG exporters club.This weekend, LNG Canada awaits the arrival of likely two LNG carriers, including Puteri Sejinjang, a new 174,000-cubic-metre carrier, to pick up the first-ever shipment of gas from the West Coast facility. <\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n\n\n\n<section class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-block  pos-rel\" style=\"border-radius:0px\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-inner-block  section-inner pad-t-0 mob-pad-t-0\" style=\"border-radius:0x\">\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-final-word\">Final Word<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cOur strategic response to this new world can\u2019t be based on nostalgia or post-imperial delusion, let alone any ideological or dogmatic attachment to one trading bloc or another.\u201d<br>\u2013<strong>Douglas Alexander<\/strong>, U.K.\u2019s Trade Minister<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Interprovincial trade barriers are being eliminated just in time for Canada Day. How big a difference will it make?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":300,"featured_media":15661,"parent":0,"menu_order":0,"template":"","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"disable_focal_point":true,"featured_image_focal_point":{"x":0.5,"y":0.5},"advgb_blocks_editor_width":"","advgb_blocks_columns_visual_guide":"","footnotes":""},"rbc_tl_category":[198,207,116],"rbc_tl_tag":[],"class_list":["post-15660","rbc_tl","type-rbc_tl","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","rbc_tl_category-the-trade-hub","rbc_tl_category-the-trade-zone","rbc_tl_category-uncategorized"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.2 (Yoast SEO v27.2) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Trade Zone: When the walls come tumbling down - RBC<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Interprovincial trade barriers are being eliminated just in time for Canada Day. 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