{"id":13382,"date":"2025-05-30T20:52:18","date_gmt":"2025-05-30T20:52:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/?post_type=rbc_tl&#038;p=13382\/"},"modified":"2025-06-06T14:57:35","modified_gmt":"2025-06-06T14:57:35","slug":"trade-zone-golden-dome-diplomacy","status":"publish","type":"rbc_tl","link":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/thought-leadership\/the-trade-zone\/trade-zone-golden-dome-diplomacy\/","title":{"rendered":"Trade Zone: Golden Dome Diplomacy"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<section class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-block  pos-rel\" style=\"border-radius:0px\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-inner-block  section-inner\" style=\"border-radius:0x\">\n<p><strong>In this week&#8217;s edition:<\/strong> Canada-U.S. in two phases, Trump&#8217;s three recurring trade narratives, and how businesses are handling the uncertainty<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-noteworthy\">Noteworthy<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Ottawa played host this week to some high-profile guests, from a gaggle of U.S. senators to King Charles\u2014plus the first session of Parliament in 161 days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-rbc-list is-style-black-disc\">\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>Five U.S. senators, including one Republican, met with senior government officials to reinforce the Canada-U.S. relationship. <strong>A two-phase deal<\/strong> is being considered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-rbc-list\">\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p><strong>Phase 1:<\/strong> The climbdown of Section 232 (steel, aluminum and auto tariffs on national security grounds) in exchange for an increase in Canada\u2019s defence spending commitment, which explains the \u2018Golden Dome\u2019 missile system talk. There\u2019s some optimism that this can be done before or during the G7 Summit\u2014though time is running out as that begins in two weeks.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p><strong>Phase 2:<\/strong> The broader renegotiation of CUSMA. Expect that to start as early as this summer and conclude just before the review deadline of July 1, 2026.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>The economic and security agreement got a shout out in the King\u2019s Speech from the Throne, as did Carney\u2019s trade diversification priorities. The legislative agenda, and the work that will happen during the summer session of the House, will likely be more domestically focused, including fast-tracking projects in the national interest and resolving federal barriers to internal trade<strong>. Expect Canada-U.S. negotiations to happen in the background<\/strong>\u2014as was the case with Minister Dominic LeBlanc\u2019s meeting with Secretary Howard Lutnick and USTR\u2019s Jamieson Greer last week.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-the-week-that-was\">The week that was<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-rbc-list\">\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>A day after the U.S. Court of International Trade ruled that Trump overstepped by using the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose tariffs, <strong>a <\/strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/canada\/article-carney-trump-tariff-court-ruling\/\"><strong>federal appeals court<\/strong><\/a><strong> reinstated them<\/strong>, at least temporarily.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>The sluggish labour market in China <strong>may get a whole lot worse<\/strong>: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2025\/05\/27\/business\/china-unemployment-jobs.html\">Nine million manufacturing jobs<\/a> in China could be lost due to the trade war.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>Clear Seas estimates that by 2040, if all planned projects pan out, <strong>there will be a <\/strong><a href=\"https:\/\/clearseas.org\/research\/vessel-traffic-forecast-pacific\/\"><strong>60% increase<\/strong><\/a><strong> in ship traffic<\/strong> on Canada\u2019s Pacific Coast. The main driver: LNG projects.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>Japan\u2019s biggest businesses are getting hammered, prompting the government to step up with a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2025\/05\/27\/business\/japan-economy-trump-tariffs.html\"><strong>US$6.3 billion package<\/strong><\/a><strong> to protect its economy<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2025\/05\/27\/business\/economy\/trump-tariffs-trade-crime.html\"><strong>Trade-related crime<\/strong><\/a><strong> is spiking<\/strong> in the U.S. And it\u2019s proving tough for the government to stop.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>India is <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ft.com\/content\/c8da5244-06e8-427d-a473-2b2fff3d073d\"><strong>playing hardball<\/strong><\/a><strong> with the U.S. on key commodities<\/strong> (rice, wheat, maize) and dairy.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>A UN agency predicts that trade-war-induced instability will lead to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnn.com\/2025\/05\/28\/business\/ilo-7-million-jobs-trade-war-intl\">seven million fewer jobs<\/a> in 2025 than first predicted. And U.S. consumer demand is connected to another 84 million jobs. <strong>Canada and Mexico, with <\/strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.ilo.org\/resource\/news\/global-employment-forecast-downgraded-7-million-jobs-2025-amid-rising\"><strong>17.1% of roles<\/strong><\/a><strong> tied to the U.S., are the most exposed.<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-the-view-from-washington\">The view from Washington<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Washington\u2019s word of the week is TACO\u2014Wall Street shorthand for \u201cTrump Always Chickens Out.\u201d A phrase that underscores growing skepticism regarding the White House\u2019s resolve to maintain tariffs in the face of market pressures and retaliatory actions from trading partners. The reality is more complicated. To justify trade policies, the administration relies on a rotating carousel of narratives:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-rbc-list default is-style-default\">\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p><strong>A negotiating tactic&nbsp;to achieve other foreign-policy objectives.<\/strong> The White House applies this reasoning when implementing fentanyl-related tariffs on Canada and Mexico and frequently uses it as a crutch to justify cancelled or postponed tariffs: mission accomplished, claim victory and move on. Tariffs are short-lived in this line of thinking, and often resolved or scaled back by minor concessions from the target nation.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p><strong>An industrial policy lever.<\/strong> They\u2019re meant to encourage firms to reshore supply chains and production lines, which aligns with Trump\u2019s promise to restore U.S. manufacturing to its former glory through sector-specific tariffs on autos, steel, and aluminum. Under this reasoning, tariffs are all about pointing to new production plants and other significant investments.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p><strong>A tool for government revenue generation.<\/strong>&nbsp;Although the hype around Trump\u2019s External Revenue Service has died down (for now), this narrative dominated the first weeks of the administration\u2019s trade policy strategy. When this is the goal, foreign countries have few carrots to offer that would change the President\u2019s mind.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>The challenge is discerning which justification Trump is leaning towards on any given day. When asked about TACO this week, the President embraced the negotiation narrative. The narrative may change next week as the administration\u2019s battle in court over IEEPA tariffs continues.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-three-questions\">Three questions\u2026<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><em>With <strong>Andrew Skinner<\/strong>, RBC\u2019s VP of Trade Finance.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Q<\/strong>: <strong>How are businesses diversifying\u2014both in terms of sourcing and selling?<\/strong><br><strong>A:<\/strong> Two key observations: In April, we had a record number of customers and prospective new users of our RBC Global Connect tool, which provides resources such as best countries to buy and sell and other trade intelligence. Secondly, some clients have found better margin opportunities in Europe for products historically shipped to the U.S. And importers are ensuring resiliency of supply by finding new suppliers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Q: How have things changed in the past couple of months for companies that have maintained their business with U.S. customers?<br>A: <\/strong>Compliance with CUSMA rose to 50% in March from 33% in February. From client discussions, we expect this will be much higher now based on the noted estimate that 94% Canadian exports to U.S. are likely to comply. Clients have maximized U.S. inventory storage and distribution channels to meet short-term demand and minimize tariff impacts. They are also regularly reviewing timing of shipments and location of delivery to navigate U.S. tariffs. Some clients have been able to pass on higher tariff costs where alternative supply is unavailable, and demand persists. Others are pausing transactions to ensure certainty of pricing and demand, especially if they can\u2019t cover tariff costs.<br><br><strong>Q: What advice do you have for companies navigating the uncertainty?<\/strong><br><strong>A:<\/strong> We are encouraging clients to review their key buyer and seller trade cycle\u2014order to payment, contract terms and documentation available\u2014and identify opportunities to renegotiate terms. The aim is to maintain long-term relationships and avoid Back-to-School, Black Friday, and Christmas peak sales cycles disruptions. There are a range of solutions available to minimize payment risk, improve cash flow and enable cost\/ return efficiencies as new markets, suppliers and buyers are being considered.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Plus: How businesses are handling the uncertainty<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":300,"featured_media":13387,"parent":0,"menu_order":0,"template":"","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"disable_focal_point":true,"featured_image_focal_point":{"x":0.5,"y":0.5},"advgb_blocks_editor_width":"","advgb_blocks_columns_visual_guide":"","footnotes":""},"rbc_tl_category":[198,207,197],"rbc_tl_tag":[],"class_list":["post-13382","rbc_tl","type-rbc_tl","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","rbc_tl_category-the-trade-hub","rbc_tl_category-the-trade-zone","rbc_tl_category-thought-leadership"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.2 (Yoast SEO v27.2) - 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