{"id":11183,"date":"2025-05-05T05:05:30","date_gmt":"2025-05-05T05:05:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/?post_type=rbc_tl&#038;p=11183\/"},"modified":"2025-06-06T17:40:14","modified_gmt":"2025-06-06T17:40:14","slug":"trade-zone-mr-carney-goes-to-washington-what-to-expect","status":"publish","type":"rbc_tl","link":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/thought-leadership\/the-trade-zone\/trade-zone-mr-carney-goes-to-washington-what-to-expect\/","title":{"rendered":"Trade Zone:\u00a0Mr. Carney goes to Washington. What to expect."},"content":{"rendered":"\n<section class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-block  pos-rel\" style=\"border-radius:0px\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-inner-block  section-inner pad-b-hlf mob-pad-b-hlf\" style=\"border-radius:0x\">\n<p>Welcome back to Trade Zone. Week Two. (Still in beta\u2014so let us know&nbsp;<a href=\"mailto:STACKHOUSE@rbc.com\">what you think<\/a>.)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading mar-b-0 mob-mar-b-0\" id=\"h-notebook\">Notebook<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><em>By John Stackhouse<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It\u2019s a big week ahead for&nbsp;<strong>shifts<\/strong>, in government and the private sector.&nbsp;<strong>Mark Carney is off to the White House&nbsp;<\/strong>on Tuesday, to reset relations. Expect some healthy talk about&nbsp;<strong>military&nbsp;spending<\/strong>, and how Canada can do more sophisticated investments for North American security. More&nbsp;<strong>drones<\/strong>. More&nbsp;<strong>cybersecurity<\/strong>. Can we make those future exports, too?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I spent part of the week in&nbsp;<strong>Vancouver<\/strong>\u2014Canada\u2019s gateway to the Asia-Pacific.&nbsp;The port looked to be thriving, thanks to massive&nbsp;shifts&nbsp;underway in supply chains:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-rbc-list is-style-black-disc\">\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item mar-l mob-mar-l\">\n<p>Chinese and Vietnamese producers are moving goods and inputs to Canada, as they game the Trump tariffs.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item mar-l mob-mar-l\">\n<p>A major B.C. agrifood producer told me his U.S. buyer has re-rerouted his company\u2019s output to Singapore, and directed a New Zealand supplier to feed the U.S.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item mar-l mob-mar-l\">\n<p>A major clothing producer explained how they\u2019re making tariff-factored pricing decisions this week on Back-to-School products that will hit North American stores in August.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item mar-l mob-mar-l\">\n<p>Another global firm told me they\u2019ve been quietly reducing Chinese productions (now just 20%) but it\u2019s a race to stay ahead of Trump negotiations with other markets like India.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Expect these shifts to continue.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"the-week-in-numbers\">The week in numbers<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>$900M&nbsp;is how much Apple says Trump\u2019s&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnn.com\/2025\/05\/02\/tech\/china-apple-trump-tariffs-tim-cook-intl-hnk\">tariffs could cost<\/a>&nbsp;the tech giant this quarter. CEO Tim Cook said most iPhones for the U.S. market will now be made in India, not China.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>60%&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnn.com\/2025\/05\/01\/business\/ports-shelves-tariffs-shipping\">fewer cargo ships<\/a>&nbsp;travelled between China and the U.S. in April, according to one estimate. Softening demand has prompted some companies to use smaller ships.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>750&nbsp;jobs&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.cbc.ca\/news\/canada\/toronto\/oshawa-general-motors-plant-cutting-jobs-union-says-1.7524665\">lost at the General Motors<\/a>&nbsp;plant in Oshawa, Ont. The automaker has responded to tariffs by moving from three shifts to two.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"need-to-know\">Need to know<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-rbc-list is-style-black-disc\">\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item mar-l-hlf mob-mar-l-hlf\">\n<p><strong>Before Carney goes to Washington<\/strong>, we have&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/thoughtleadership.rbc.com\/where-we-go-from-here-how-to-address-the-five-key-priorities-that-will-be-front-and-centre-for-canadas-newly-formed-government\/\">thoughts<\/a>&nbsp;on what an economic and security deal with the U.S. could include:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-rbc-list is-style-black-disc\">\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item mar-l\">\n<p><strong>Energy and economic security:<\/strong>&nbsp;Negotiators will want to address longstanding irritants (digital services tax, softwood-lumber dispute, strengthening rules of origin). Expect movement and strategies on gas, nuclear and critical minerals.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item mar-l mob-mar-l\">\n<p><strong>Defense and Arctic security:<\/strong>&nbsp;Everything from the plan to meet 2% defence spending targets, to NORAD modernization, dual-use accounting, social and economic infrastructure investments in the North, including an Arctic port, and expanding shipbuilding\/icebreaker commitments.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item mar-l mob-mar-l\">\n<p><strong>Border security:<\/strong>&nbsp;Although Canada has made investments in border security, further collaboration, especially on money laundering, immigration and drug\/arms trafficking, will likely come up during negotiations.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"the-big-question\">The big question<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>This week, we turned to&nbsp;<strong>Sue Noble, RBC\u2019s Vice President Automotive Finance National Office,<\/strong>&nbsp;for the answer.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em><strong>Q:<\/strong>&nbsp;What\u2019s your main takeaway from Trump\u2019s&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.cbc.ca\/news\/business\/trump-reduce-auto-tariffs-1.7521474\">auto-tariff relief<\/a>&nbsp;announcement this week?<\/em><br><strong>SN:<\/strong>&nbsp;While the relief may be seen as a positive move, there continues to be a high degree of uncertainty that makes it challenging for manufacturers and the industry. North American production varies by manufacturer and even by brand. Without certainty on a long-term strategy for tariffs, we expect car manufacturers to take a cautious approach.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"final-word\">Final word<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cThe American people\u2013the businesses here in America, the consumers here in America\u2013are better off with a more stable relationship with your biggest customer. It makes sense for Americans, and it makes sense for the people who have put the President into the White House, to have affordable products to buy, to have relationships where companies invest in their communities. Companies don\u2019t invest when there\u2019s instability.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u2013<strong>Kirsten Hillman<\/strong>, Canadian Ambassador to the United States (<em>The Atlantic on the Future<\/em>&nbsp;event in Washington, April 29<sup>th<\/sup>)<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Plus: Insight into the massive supply chain shifts that are happening right now.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":79,"featured_media":11184,"parent":0,"menu_order":0,"template":"","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"disable_focal_point":true,"featured_image_focal_point":{"x":0.5,"y":0.5},"advgb_blocks_editor_width":"","advgb_blocks_columns_visual_guide":"","footnotes":""},"rbc_tl_category":[198,207,197],"rbc_tl_tag":[],"class_list":["post-11183","rbc_tl","type-rbc_tl","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","rbc_tl_category-the-trade-hub","rbc_tl_category-the-trade-zone","rbc_tl_category-thought-leadership"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.2 (Yoast SEO v27.2) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Trade Zone:\u00a0Mr. Carney goes to Washington. 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