{"id":11144,"date":"2025-04-25T19:09:44","date_gmt":"2025-04-25T19:09:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/?post_type=rbc_tl&#038;p=11144\/"},"modified":"2026-01-23T21:43:21","modified_gmt":"2026-01-23T21:43:21","slug":"trade-zone-where-the-new-government-will-focus-first","status":"publish","type":"rbc_tl","link":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/thought-leadership\/the-trade-zone\/trade-zone-where-the-new-government-will-focus-first\/","title":{"rendered":"Trade Zone: Where the new government will focus first"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<section class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-block  pos-rel\" style=\"border-radius:0px\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-inner-block  section-inner pad-b-hlf mob-pad-b-hlf\" style=\"border-radius:0x\">\n<p>Welcome to the first edition of Trade Zone. It\u2019s in beta testing, so please&nbsp;<a href=\"mailto:STACKHOUSE@rbc.com\">let us know<\/a>&nbsp;what you think. Every week, our team at RBC Thought Leadership will share what we\u2019re hearing from governments, learning from clients and seeing in our research. We\u2019ll also give you a cheat sheet on the week, to help you keep pace.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-notebook\">Notebook<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>By John Stackhouse<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-rbc-list is-style-black-disc\">\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item mar-l mob-mar-l\">\n<p>If Mark Carney\u2019s Liberals are re-elected on Monday, as polls are suggesting, expect them to shift their focus South and West by the end of the week.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item mar-l mob-mar-l\">\n<p>To the South, expect a crew of newbies across the bureaucracy, as well as PMO, with experience in the U.S. A call with Donald Trump will top the To-Do list, with more than trade on their minds. \u201cComprehensive partnership\u201d is one term floating about\u2014to cover border security, immigration, Arctic and defence issues. And yes, trade, even if USMCA may not be long for this world in its current form.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item mar-l mob-mar-l\">\n<p>Expect to see a highly structured and strategic Canadian approach, colliding with a highly unstructured American approach. The Trump team had been telling Canadians to avoid working groups or outside \u201cexperts.\u201d Side note: American negotiators are driving the Mexicans batty with demands for them to control tomato shipments before any deal is reached.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item mar-l mob-mar-l\">\n<p>The Trump team has been losing in the courts and in the markets. If that continues, Canada may opt for the long game, following Napoleon\u2019s advice: \u201cNever interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item mar-l mob-mar-l\">\n<p>To the West, watch for outreach from Ottawa to Alberta and Saskatchewan, with a focus on diversification of exports. That will take a lot more than a new pipeline (which may be on the table), as our resource-driven provinces think about new markets. Dow Chemical\u2019s bombshell decision this week to delay its Alberta plant is just the latest trade warning. (I wrote about the&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/thoughtleadership.rbc.com\/canadas-big-pivot\/\">Big Pivot<\/a>&nbsp;on our Trade Hub, drawing on conversations this week at Public Policy Forum\u2019s annual Growth Summit, which is a bit of an Olympics for policy wonks.)<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item mar-l mob-mar-l\">\n<p>Caught between the Potomac and the Prairies is Ontario, but not for long. Doug Ford stole the show at the PPF Summit with a feisty attack on Trump (\u201cSometimes the cheese seems to fall off the cracker with that guy\u201d) and a passionate shout-out for&nbsp;<em>Progressive<\/em>&nbsp;Conservatives. Ford seems ready to play bad cop to the next PM\u2019s good cop. He may be warming up for another role, too.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item mar-l mob-mar-l\">\n<p>Get ready to hear more about Europe as a new (old) partner, for military procurement, AI standards and, yes, trade. Those conversations will grow ahead of the G7 summit in Alberta in June, when we\u2019re expecting LNG and data centres to be front and centre. If the Trump team shows up\u2014no bets there\u2014they\u2019ll want to ensure some alignment on LNG finance, especially for emerging markets, and access to gas-powered electricity for their hyperscalers (the latest euphemism for Big Tech).<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item mar-l mob-mar-l\">\n<p>Climate is creeping back into the trade conversation, although not in North America. Europe is marching ahead with border carbon adjustments (just don\u2019t call them carbon tariffs). Japan is also advancing an emissions trading system, including cross-border carbon credits and a surcharge on fossil fuels (just don\u2019t call it a carbon tax). Expect Canada\u2019s Balkanized industrial carbon pricing system to be part of a likely discussion on the G7 sidelines. (Did we tell you that will be in Alberta?)<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item mar-l mob-mar-l\">\n<p>Indigenous equity will be an important aspect of any new trade relations, much more so than even five years ago. We\u2019re part of the big First Nations Major Projects Coalition conference in Toronto next week and expecting both Ford and possibly a new PM to use the platform to advance their investment strategies. (No investment, no trade.) Other key guests will include Indigenous leaders from Alaska and Utah\u2014 hello, Republicans\u2014who may offer a different kind of cross-border relationship.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"need-to-know\">Need to know<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>\u2794&nbsp;We estimate that<strong>&nbsp;$125 billion&nbsp;<\/strong>is at risk for Canada as U.S President Donald Trump eyes&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/thoughtleadership.rbc.com\/125b-exposed-whats-at-risk-for-canada-as-trump-eyes-5-strategic-sectors\/\">5 strategic sectors<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" height=\"731\" width=\"1024\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2025\/05\/TL-Graphs-Canada-exports-in-key-sectors-2048x1461-1.png?quality=80&amp;w=1024\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-11146\" style=\"aspect-ratio:1.4027397260273973;width:1004px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2025\/05\/TL-Graphs-Canada-exports-in-key-sectors-2048x1461-1.png 2048w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2025\/05\/TL-Graphs-Canada-exports-in-key-sectors-2048x1461-1.png?resize=300,214 300w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2025\/05\/TL-Graphs-Canada-exports-in-key-sectors-2048x1461-1.png?resize=768,548 768w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2025\/05\/TL-Graphs-Canada-exports-in-key-sectors-2048x1461-1.png?resize=1024,731 1024w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2025\/05\/TL-Graphs-Canada-exports-in-key-sectors-2048x1461-1.png?resize=1536,1096 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>\u2794&nbsp;In a bid to escape tariffs and wait out the trade war, third-party sellers on Amazon and Walmart are shifting stock from China to&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.ft.com\/content\/6114c580-70db-4de2-b19f-d4dbebd3214f\">tariff-free warehouses<\/a>&nbsp;in Canada.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u2794&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/thelogic.co\/news\/trumps-trade-war-derails-ipo-comeback\/\">Not a single new IPO<\/a>&nbsp;was completed on the TSX or Venture Exchange in Q1. Trade war is&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.wired.com\/story\/tariffs-startups-ipo-investments\/\">scaring companies<\/a>&nbsp;south of the border, too.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u2794&nbsp;Coke vs. Pepsi: Who\u2019s the winner of the ultimate taste, er,&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.wsj.com\/business\/retail\/pepsi-soda-tariffs-manufacturing-coca-cola-76dffe02?mod=business_feat3_retail_pos4\">tariff test<\/a>?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u2794&nbsp;Where we see Canada\u2019s debt ratio headed over the next three years in a worst-case tariff<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" height=\"628\" width=\"1024\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2025\/05\/COTD-GRAPHS-Apr-28-EN-2048x1256-1.png?quality=80&amp;w=1024\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-11147\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2025\/05\/COTD-GRAPHS-Apr-28-EN-2048x1256-1.png 2048w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2025\/05\/COTD-GRAPHS-Apr-28-EN-2048x1256-1.png?resize=300,184 300w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2025\/05\/COTD-GRAPHS-Apr-28-EN-2048x1256-1.png?resize=768,471 768w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2025\/05\/COTD-GRAPHS-Apr-28-EN-2048x1256-1.png?resize=1024,628 1024w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2025\/05\/COTD-GRAPHS-Apr-28-EN-2048x1256-1.png?resize=1536,942 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"final-words\">Final Word(s)<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cAll eyes right now are on the Arctic. We are the gateway to the Northwest passage and at the forefront of the conversation when we\u2019re talking about security and sovereignty.\u201d<br><strong>\u2014P.J. Akeeagok<\/strong>, Premier of Nunavut<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cPeople are not going to race to build manufacturing in America. With the policy volatility, you actually undermine the very goal you\u2019re trying to achieve.\u201d<br><strong>\u2014Ken Griffin<\/strong>, Citadel CEO<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cThe renegotiation of the USMCA included a very forward-looking digital-trade agreement. I think there is meaningful opportunity there, and that\u2019s in contrast with what you have seen in some other countries, where data sovereignty has been more restrictive.\u201d<br><strong>\u2014David Schwimmer<\/strong>, CEO of the London Stock Exchange<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cThe EU is working on a targeted and measured response in case we cannot reach a deal [with the U.S.] rapidly.\u201d<br><strong>\u2014Eric Lombard<\/strong>, France\u2019s Minister of Economy, Finance and Industry<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>What we\u2019re hearing from governments, learning from clients and seeing in our research.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":79,"featured_media":11145,"parent":0,"menu_order":0,"template":"","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"disable_focal_point":true,"featured_image_focal_point":{"x":0.5,"y":0.5},"advgb_blocks_editor_width":"","advgb_blocks_columns_visual_guide":"","footnotes":""},"rbc_tl_category":[198,207],"rbc_tl_tag":[],"class_list":["post-11144","rbc_tl","type-rbc_tl","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","rbc_tl_category-the-trade-hub","rbc_tl_category-the-trade-zone"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.4 (Yoast SEO v27.4) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Trade Zone: Where the new government will focus first - RBC<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" 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