{"id":10887,"date":"2025-04-14T22:12:57","date_gmt":"2025-04-14T22:12:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/?post_type=rbc_tl&p=10887\/"},"modified":"2026-03-27T14:23:02","modified_gmt":"2026-03-27T14:23:02","slug":"five-key-takeaways-from-the-columbia-global-energy-summit-2025","status":"publish","type":"rbc_tl","link":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/thought-leadership\/the-trade-hub\/five-key-takeaways-from-the-columbia-global-energy-summit-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Five key takeaways from the Columbia Global Energy Summit 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\n
\n

Energy. Geopolitics. Trade.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

All three topics were on full display at Columbia\u2019s Global Energy Summit 2025. Tariffs and trade policy dominated the Summit, with significant implications to both the supply and demand of North American energy. Shaz Merwat, Energy Policy Lead of RBC\u2019s Climate Action Institute, was in attendance and shares the five most pressing themes at this year\u2019s event.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

1. Energy risks becoming more complex<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

The push to re-orient trade flows to manifest specific economic outcomes (reduce a trade deficit, reshore production) likely increases price risk through a bifurcation of supply and demand in key commodities. At the most obvious, tariffs levied on steel, aluminum and possibly copper\u2013all key inputs to energy infrastructure\u2013result in regional pricing. As seen in the chart below, U.S. aluminum prices have largely decoupled from European pricing as a result of Trump\u2019s tariffs. Similarly, price differences between U.S. Midwest hot rolled coil steel prices (US$1,075\/tonne) and Northern Europe hot rolled coil steel (US$715) has increased to about $360\/tonne, compared to $150\/tonne at the start of the year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Geopolitically, risks are also expanding beyond the simple \u2018Middle East\u2019 supply risk that we have known for the last half century. Spheres of influence can re-orient supply and demand relationships, especially in the case of LNG and critical minerals. These emerging geopolitical trade barriers ultimately weaken an otherwise more \u2018global\u2019 market to absorb supply and demand shocks\u2013which likely are more deliberate at a time when weaponized trade is becoming increasingly more common (Russian gas, Chinese supply chains, the American market).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

2. What is this energy dominance you speak of?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

While the Administration has vowed to unleash U.S. energy dominance, to date, it appears to have done the exact opposite. On oil, Trump\u2019s trade\/tariff agenda has driven oil prices lower than those witnessed for most almost all of Biden\u2019s presidency. WTI has twice dipped below US$60 per barrel in the past week\u2013a level widely seen as U.S. shale\u2019s breakeven\u2013leading to increasing concerns of idled rigs and declining production; S&P Global estimates US$50\/bbl oil could cause a U.S. production decline of 1 million bbl\/d. All the while, OPEC is boosting production.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The continued desire to gut funding for the Inflation Reduction Act also stymies U.S. renewable energy, even for tax credits deemed friendly to the oil industry (such as the 45Q carbon capture tax credits). Lastly, concerns around supply inflation (steel\/aluminum tariffs) and general market\/economic uncertainly has created a very challenging environment to deploy capital.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

3. Climate trade frictions remain alive and well<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

With the gutting of the WTO and Trump\u2019s reciprocal tariffs, developing nations are increasingly seeing their preferential trade terms (higher \u2018allowable\u2019 tariff rates) erode. You can add climate to that list, as nations impose climate-related trade measures to enhance economic competitiveness.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In Europe, carbon border adjustments protect domestic carbon policy. In the U.S., a border pollution fee leverages America\u2019s carbon advantage\u2013especially in relation to China. The U.K. and Australia are also exploring carbon border adjustments of their own.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Domestic carbon policies without a climate trade measure (such as a CBAM), politically, is almost certainly bound to fail. Yet, expectations for developing nations to enact similar carbon prices as the E.U.\u2019s emissions trading scheme\u2013a system that has seen carbon pricing increase\/expand over the last two decades\u2013in a mere few years, seems unjust. This likely only accentuates climate trade tensions between North and South.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

4. Reducing the trade deficit<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

In the eyes of U.S. President Donald Trump, reciprocal tariff rates yield a balanced trade relationship. For trade partners, a balanced trade relationship is as good as a \u2018due north\u2019 one can expect under Trump\u2019s vision of America First. Trade partners will be served well if they can better house American (merchandise) exports.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In this world, U.S. LNG likely shines bright. The country is expected to surpass Qatar as the largest provider of U.S. LNG, globally, by 2030 according to RBC Capital Markets forecasts as seen below. For major LNG buyers that run large trade surpluses with the U.S. (the E.U., Japan, Korea, India), greater purchases of LNG supply can be the \u2018easy\u2019 win.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

5. AI clusters and cross-border data flows<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Nations with abundant, cheap electricity are best positioned in the race to build data centers. This likely results in supply \u2018clusters\u2019, especially torqued to renewable generation given the climate commitments of tech firms. Consensus is increasingly pointing to Canada, the U.S. and the Middle East as becoming cluster of American artificial intelligence deployment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But what does that mean for data flows? Data protectionism towards data hosting (colocation) likely remains, but more alignment is needed on cross-border data transfers resulting from compute capacity (hyperscale). We expect more on this in the renegotiation of USMCA in 2026.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Shaz Merwat<\/strong> is the Energy Policy Lead of RBC\u2019s Climate Action Institute<\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"author":300,"featured_media":10888,"parent":0,"menu_order":0,"template":"","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"disable_focal_point":true,"featured_image_focal_point":{"x":0.5,"y":0.5},"advgb_blocks_editor_width":"","advgb_blocks_columns_visual_guide":"","footnotes":""},"rbc_tl_category":[198,208],"rbc_tl_tag":[164,126,138],"class_list":["post-10887","rbc_tl","type-rbc_tl","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","rbc_tl_category-the-trade-hub","rbc_tl_category-trade-hub-commentary","rbc_tl_tag-climate","rbc_tl_tag-energy","rbc_tl_tag-trade"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nFive key takeaways from the Columbia Global Energy Summit 2025 - RBC<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" 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