{"id":10639,"date":"2025-04-04T15:46:50","date_gmt":"2025-04-04T15:46:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/?post_type=rbc_tl&#038;p=10639\/"},"modified":"2025-05-09T06:00:11","modified_gmt":"2025-05-09T06:00:11","slug":"growing-pains-farmers-on-the-tariff-frontlines","status":"publish","type":"rbc_tl","link":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/thought-leadership\/the-trade-hub\/growing-pains-farmers-on-the-tariff-frontlines\/","title":{"rendered":"Growing pains:\u00a0Farmers on the tariff frontlines"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<section class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-block  pos-rel\" style=\"border-radius:0px\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-inner-block  section-inner pad-b-qtr\" style=\"border-radius:0x\">\n<p><em><strong>Field Notes:<\/strong>&nbsp;How Canadian businesses are navigating trade tensions<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Canada\u2019s agriculture sector is among the first casualties of the trade wars with China and the United States. Monty Reich, CEO of SWT Ltd, a farmer-owned, independent grain and crop input company in Saskatchewan, discusses how farmers are navigating the trade tensions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-uncertainty-and-volatility-a-near-daily-irritant\">Uncertainty and volatility a near-daily irritant<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-rbc-list is-style-black-disc\">\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>The current environment is challenging, uncertain\u2014and confusing. \u201cEach day is a different journey,\u201d Reich said.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>Even before the 100% Chinese tariffs on canola oil and meal and yellow peas were imposed, the U.S. had started talking tariffs in December, with durum wheat on the list to be hit.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>SWT had to absorb the financial blow of U.S. tariffs on durum wheat, choosing not to pass those costs onto its farmer-shareholders. \u201cWe sold product into future spring positions and took that hit on our own bottom line,\u201d Reich noted.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>U.S. tariffs have made durum wheat exports more costly. \u201cWe are the importer of record,\u201d Reich noted, meaning SWT itself is directly responsible for paying the 25% tariff\u2014a cost that prohibits any future sales.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-canola-prices-are-plunging\">Canola prices are plunging<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-rbc-list is-style-black-disc\">\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>For canola farmers, the impact has been brutal. Prices have plunged by 25-30% since the Chinese tariffs were imposed, dropping from around $16 per bushel to $12.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>\u201cMargins on the farm are pretty narrow as it is,\u201d Reich said. Even small price shifts can turn a profitable season into a financial disaster. With this level of decline, farmers are watching their incomes evaporate.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-tariffs-are-hitting-from-all-quarters\">Tariffs are hitting from all quarters<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-rbc-list is-style-black-disc\">\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>China\u2019s restrictions on canola and yellow peas have cut off a crucial market, leaving farmers with few places to turn to. \u201cChina accounts for about 87% of the yellow pea market along with the U.S. and India,\u201d meaning farmers now face a near-total lockout.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>India\u2019s on-again, off-again tariffs on pulses add another layer of uncertainty, leaving Canadian farmers with few viable alternatives.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-farmers-are-scrambling-for-alternatives\">Farmers are scrambling for alternatives<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-rbc-list is-style-black-disc\">\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>\u201cGrowers are penciling in right now, trying to figure out what\u2019s going to provide them the best return,\u201d Reich said.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>Farmers could pivot to other crops, but in practice, it\u2019s not that simple. \u201cIt\u2019s not easy to just flip commodities,\u201d he explained.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>Farmers are \u201cscrambling\u201d to adjust before the next planting season.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-deferred-investments-shrinking-profitability\">Deferred investments, shrinking profitability<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-rbc-list is-style-black-disc\">\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>Some canola crush plant investments were already deferred a couple of years ago due to ongoing challenges with the Chinese marketplace and the cost of construction.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>Production facilities being built today are going to continue, and existing facilities will continue operating, but margins are getting tighter.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>Farmers are weighing whether to cut back production, reduce costs, or even scale down their operations altogether.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-fear-of-stranded-shipments\">Fear of stranded shipments<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-rbc-list is-style-black-disc\">\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>China\u2019s anti-dumping tariffs on canola seeds can come soon, adding to the threat.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>That risk makes exporting to China a high risk. If canola seed shipments hit the waters, the Chinese \u201ccan slap on a tariff tomorrow.\u201d That uncertainty alone is enough to spook exporters and depress prices.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>This feels different from the dispute with China in 2019 that was more restricted to a few companies over \u201cdockage concerns,\u201d and quality issues.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-backdoor-trade-routes\">Backdoor trade routes<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-rbc-list is-style-black-disc\">\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>In the past, when China restricted direct imports, Canadian canola still made its way there\u2014through other markets.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>\u201cThere will be other South Pacific Asian countries that\u2019ll take the product and flip it over to China.\u201d But those countries will try to secure the goods at a discount.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>In addition, building trade relationships with new markets takes time. It\u2019s not simply about switching markets from one to another (e.g., from China to the Philippines).<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-other-crops-are-also-facing-challenges\">Other crops are also facing challenges<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-rbc-list is-style-black-disc\">\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>Pulse crop (e.g., lentils) are also facing challenges, particularly due to tariffs from India. This adds pressure to the profitability of these crops, with farmers having to navigate changing trade policies, especially when tariffs are applied or removed unpredictably.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-who-will-replace-canadian-canola\">Who will replace Canadian canola?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-rbc-list is-style-black-disc\">\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>In the short term, other countries such as Australia can substitute Canadian canola, but Canada\u2019s product is generally seen as highly reliable and high-quality.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>As supply and demand dynamics shift, other countries may adjust their crop rotations to meet market needs.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>Billions of dollars have been invested in Western Canada in canola capacity and crush capacity. There\u2019s a lot of investment at stake in canola to \u201cjust let it go away,\u201d Reich said.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-the-need-for-stronger-government-engagement\">The need for stronger government engagement<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-rbc-list is-style-black-disc\">\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>While farmers often prefer minimal government intervention, strong trade agreements are essential in resolving issues like tariffs or trade restrictions.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>Canada\u2019s government should ensure robust trade relations with key partners (China, the U.S., India) to reduce barriers, Reich recommended.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>Saskatchewan, for instance, has set up nine offices abroad to facilitate smoother trade relations and reduce friction.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>Canadian agriculture needs to have strong representation globally, not just through trade agreements, but through actual presence and ongoing diplomatic engagement.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>Government investments are needed to improve infrastructure to boost interprovincial markets and move products west-to-east.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"author":298,"featured_media":10640,"parent":0,"menu_order":0,"template":"","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"disable_focal_point":true,"featured_image_focal_point":{"x":0.5,"y":0.5},"advgb_blocks_editor_width":"","advgb_blocks_columns_visual_guide":"","footnotes":""},"rbc_tl_category":[198],"rbc_tl_tag":[138],"class_list":["post-10639","rbc_tl","type-rbc_tl","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","rbc_tl_category-the-trade-hub","rbc_tl_tag-trade"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.7 (Yoast SEO v26.8) - 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