{"id":4152,"date":"1999-09-01T01:00:00","date_gmt":"1999-09-01T01:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/about-us\/history\/letter\/september-1999-the-elements-of-folly\/"},"modified":"2022-11-27T01:50:51","modified_gmt":"2022-11-27T01:50:51","slug":"september-1999-the-elements-of-folly","status":"publish","type":"rbc_letter","link":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/about-us\/history\/letter\/september-1999-the-elements-of-folly\/","title":{"rendered":"September 1999 &#8211; The Elements of Folly"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"layout-column-main\">\n<p class=\"boldtext\">Folly is as old as Adam and Eve and as new                     as today&#8217;s headlines. How can we combat this perennial blight?                     Here is a handy guide to how to avoid it, mostly by being                     aware of the tricks the mind can play&#8230;<\/p>\n<p> When modern people talk about the news of the day, they                     are usually talking about folly. It should be noted that news                     is not an accurate reflection of everyday reality: headlines                     are not made of the things that routinely go right, but of                     the things that more rarely go wrong. The real news &#8211; the                     stuff that people want to hear and chat about &#8211; is composed                     of accidents, political and economic crises, crime, war, and                     other forms of conflict. Folly may be found at the heart of                     these arresting developments more often than not.<\/p>\n<p>Social commentators in days gone by identified folly for                     what it was, and cited historical precedents as warnings against                     repeating them. The short attention span of today&#8217;s consumers                     of news leads its purveyors to treat follies in particular                     contexts, as if they were unique. But it is not difficult                     for a historically informed person to detect the presence                     of folly in a newsworthy event, trend or situation. It shines                     through the editorial fog like a red traffic light.<\/p>\n<p>In a society that almost seems to have lost its memory in                     the pursuit of what&#8217;s new, the consistent pattern of folly                     in current affairs is seldom called to public attention. Anyone                     who points out that a seemingly fresh development is fundamentally                     the same as something that happened centuries ago risks being                     brusquely told to &#8220;get with it.&#8221; While looking ahead to the                     future, modern pundits tend to forsake the benefits of looking                     back beyond the recent past.<\/p>\n<p>Does it matter? Yes, where folly is concerned, because it                     is an ever -present source of ruin. We moderns forget and                     overlook it at our peril and expense. By being conscious of                     it and of the mischief it wreaks among us, we as citizens                     can exert whatever influence we can on our public officials                     to steer them clear of it. Better still, an understanding                     of its nature may help us to avoid it in our own lives.<\/p>\n<p>But first we must know what we are talking about. Folly                     is an elusive concept that comes in many varieties. Though                     the word is etymologically linked to &#8220;fool,&#8221; there is a quantitative                     difference between folly and simple foolishness. Anyone can                     act foolishly sometimes. People under the spell of folly act                     foolishly again and again.<\/p>\n<p>The primary dictionary definition of the word is &#8220;foolish                     belief or act,&#8221; which adequately covers the small-scale folly                     that takes place daily. It is largely to guard against the                     damage this does to the body politic that we have rules, laws,                     police forces, judges, juries, and jails.<\/p>\n<p>The secondary definitions in dictionaries come closer to                     what historians and philosophers mean by the word: &#8220;useless                     and expensive undertaking&#8221; or &#8220;action that ends or can end                     in disaster. &#8221; Mentioning no names, it is not hard to think                     of useless undertakings close to home that have been responsible                     for heavy drains of taxpayers&#8217; money. And we do not have to                     run our memories back very far to find cases of questionable                     business ventures that have ended in financial disaster for                     the investors concerned.<\/p>\n<p>Even these refined definitions, however, fall short of describing                     the whole phenomenon. That is because there is something mysterious                     about folly which precludes spelling it out in completely                     rational terms.<\/p>\n<p>The mystery is that it tends to be repeated in the face                     of compelling evidence that it will reap dire consequences.                     If folly were a legal concept, it would be called recidivism,                     a recidivist being an offender who repeatedly commits crimes                     in the knowledge that doing so is almost certain to land him                     back behind bars. Similarly, if folly were a disease, it would                     have to be classified as chronic. For it has recurred year                     after year, century after century, since the beginning of                     the recorded history. Indeed it is such a standard and basic                     feature of the human condition that it is one of the first                     subjects man ever wrote about.<\/p>\n<h3>Blame it on the subconscious<\/h3>\n<p>The world&#8217;s first published author, Homer, dealt extensively                     with it, as did the immortal playwrights for whom its unavoidability                     became the leading theme in Greek tragedy. Homer&#8217;s tale in                     the Odyssey of the Greek conquest of Troy makes a dramatic                     illustration of how irresistible it can be. The Trojans were                     vehemently warned that the wooden horse the Greeks had given                     them had soldiers hidden inside it. But they did precisely                     what they were told not to do when they hauled it within their                     city walls.<\/p>\n<p>Barbara W. Tuchman used the fall of Troy as the first case                     study in her 1984 best-seller, The March of Folly. In it she                     made the point that modern folk still tend to regard folly                     fatalistically, only instead of blaming it on the gods, they                     blame it on the subconscious : &#8220;[Psychologist Sigmund] Freud                     has brought us back to Euripides and the controlling power                     of the dark, buried forces of the soul, which not being subject                     to the mind are incorrigible by good intentions or rational                     will.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>The theory that folly is inherent in human nature raises                     the question of how our species has ever been able to advance                     in the face of the set-backs it so regularly occasions. The                     answer is that just enough people have always learned just                     enough from past follies not to re-commit them. So if folly                     is chronic, it is by no means incurable, given a healthy vigilance                     for its symptoms when they begin to show.<\/p>\n<p>Tuchman is concerned in her book with folly of the political                     sort, which she calls &#8220;the pursuit of policy contrary to self-interest.&#8221;                     She traces the phenomenon from the fall of Troy to the American                     debacle in Viet Nam. Her key contention is that social and                     technological progress has had no effect on the workings of                     folly over the ages. What King Rehoboam did in losing the                     Israeli Empire circa 930 B.C., the British did in the 1700s                     in losing their American colonies. What the British did then,                     the Americans did in the 1960s and &#8217;70s in losing the war                     in Viet Nam.<\/p>\n<p>What did they do? Here, for future guidance, is a partial                     checklist drawn from Ms. Tuchman&#8217;s findings:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>They proceeded on the basis of fixed notions, and they could not be budged from them.<\/li>\n<li>They attempted to gain ascendency over others by force rather than finesse.<\/li>\n<li>They placed exaggerated importance on not showing weakness.<\/li>\n<li>They wilfully ignored evidence that events were not proceeding as they had calculated.<\/li>\n<li>They misinterpreted facts to suit their own biases.<\/li>\n<li>They refused to listen to contrary opinions.<\/li>\n<li>They ceased to weigh possible gains against losses; that is, the size of the possible losses they faced grew out of proportion to the possible gains.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Tuchman duly noted some other characteristics of folly-friendly                     conduct: constant over-reaction; exaggeration of the danger                     of not following the chosen course of action, and invention                     of excuses to persist in it. Her subjects became fixated by                     their effort, and sacrificed everything to it, including their                     integrity. People bent on folly are overpowered by ambition,                     anxiety, status-seeking, and face-saving, she observed.<\/p>\n<h3>Carried away by commitments<\/h3>\n<p>Folly is at its most glaring among those in power, if only                     because more is recorded about them than about ordinary citizens.                     Top military commanders provide rich material for its study,                     because the extreme pressure on them in time of war makes                     them unusually error-prone. Former British Army officer Norman                     Dixon once wrote a book examining military defeats called                     On the Psychology of Military Incompetence. He found exactly                     the same character traits in losing generals in every era:                     rigidity, conformity, traditionalism, anti-intellectualism,                     indecisiveness, and stubbornness.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2022\/08\/sept1999_1.gif\" alt=\"image\" width=\"267\" height=\"288\" hspace=\"5\" vspace=\"5\" align=\"right\"><\/p>\n<p>Military folly has often had to do with being carried away                     by a commitment. Canadians have reason to remember Dieppe,                     the raid on the coast of France in 1942 in which half of the                     invading Canadian force, more than 2,000 men, were captured,                     wounded or killed. The raid was to have been made six weeks                     earlier, but was cancelled due to bad weather. Word of it                     leaked out, but, with all the wheels in motion, its commanders                     decided to proceed with the raid whether the Germans were                     forewarned or not.<\/p>\n<h3>Losing sight of the objective<\/h3>\n<p>World War I can be looked upon as a folly in and of itself,                     but the waging of it by the Allied high command highlighted                     several detailed aspects of it. One concerns &#8220;the law of unintended                     consequences.&#8221; Massive bombardments were supposed to clear                     the way for infantry attacks; instead, they churned up the                     mud, making it nearly impossible for troops to move forward                     and leaving them as helpless targets for enemy counter-fire.                     &#8220;The British Army&#8230;by its own bombardment and barrages, created                     in front of itself its own obstacle,&#8221; one historian wrote.<\/p>\n<p>Another consistent military failing (which is also present                     in civil and personal affairs) is an overestimation of one&#8217;s                     own strength and an underestimation of the strength and determination                     of one&#8217;s adversary. British generals in World War I continually                     drew the conclusion from selective evidence that the German                     Army was about to crack. While acting on the basis of that                     misinformation, they became isolated from the actual conditions                     of battle. &#8220;Impossible orders [were] issued by generals who                     had no idea of what the execution of their commands really                     meant,&#8221; a front-line officer recorded bitterly.<\/p>\n<p>In yet another common exercise of folly, the commanders                     lost touch with what they had set out to accomplish. The battle                     of Passchendaele in 1917 originally had as its objective the                     capture of the German-occupied Belgium coast. British troops                     were to burst through the German line and join up with another                     British column which had made an amphibious landing. The landing                     was aborted, but the other side of the offensive was pushed                     forward regardless. Before long, the strategic plan was forgotten,                     and the objective switched to wearing down the enemy. As a                     result 400,000 allied troops were condemned to horrible deaths                     and injuries fighting over a few yards of mud.<\/p>\n<h3>The boomerang effect<\/h3>\n<p>Folly is often distinguished for the herd-like behaviour                     of people who embark on it. World War I began with young men                     on both sides marching off to the battle, each convinced that                     his own side could not lose. Rushes to disaster are usually                     propelled either by patriotism or by the prospect of financial                     gain, as in the mad mass speculation in tulip bulbs in 17th                     century Holland. In the classic folly of the Darien venture,                     both impulses came into play.<\/p>\n<p>In June 1695 the then-independent Parliament of Scotland                     incorporated a company to establish a trading colony in Darien                     on the Isthmus of Panama. The precedents were grim: previous                     attempts to establish Scottish entrepots in the New World                     had signally failed. Yet Scots organizations and individuals                     from all walks of life subscribed some 400,000 pounds to the                     scheme, an estimated half the capital of the nation. The problem                     was that no one concerned had ever been to Darien. The warnings                     of explorers that it was the least inhabitable place in the                     tropics were dismissed on the grounds that it could not possibly                     be as hot, rainy and disease- ridden as they said.<\/p>\n<p>Darien was chosen because it was presumed to offer a corridor                     between the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. Five ships loaded                     with colonists and an assortment of goods to trade for the                     riches of the East landed on the Panama coast in November,                     1698. Four more ships followed, but when they arrived a year                     later, they found nothing but ruins and a massive graveyard.                     The second draft of colonists perished like their predecessors                     from tropical diseases, shipwrecks, Spanish attacks and blockades,                     and starvation. By the time the colony was finally abandoned                     in 1700, 2,000 men, women and children had been lost, and                     all nine ships sunk.<\/p>\n<p>The venture yielded a perfect example of the boomerang effect.                     It started as a national crusade to ensure Scotland&#8217;s independence                     from England. It ended in a national bankruptcy that pushed                     the northern nation into a union with England in 1707 on unequal                     terms. Presumably the Scots could have made a much better                     deal if they had negotiated the union or some other arrangement                     when they were stronger. The incident brings to mind the Spanish                     maxim: &#8220;What the wise man does in the beginning the fool does                     in the end.&#8221;<\/p>\n<h3>What can a person learn ?<\/h3>\n<p>Parallels of this sort between collective and individual                     behaviour are woven throughout the literature of folly. The                     difference between individual and collective folly is, after                     all, only a matter of scale. Which raises the question of                     what we as individuals can learn from the record in order                     to avert it personally. As a kind of public service, here                     is a list of relevant do&#8217;s and don&#8217;t&#8217;s (mostly don&#8217;t&#8217;s) in                     modern layman&#8217;s terms:<\/p>\n<p>Don&#8217;t kid yourself. Self-deception is the engine of folly.                     Bear in mind the old saying that there is no one you can dupe                     more easily than yourself. Also that you are always your own                     worst advisor, which leads to the rule that you should always                     seek the advice of people with experience, and heed what they                     have to say.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2022\/08\/sept1999_2.gif\" alt=\"image\" width=\"196\" height=\"393\" hspace=\"0\" vspace=\"0\" align=\"left\"><\/p>\n<p>Don&#8217;t indulge in wishful thinking. &#8220;You believe that easily                     what you hope for earnestly,&#8221; the Roman philosopher Terence                     wrote. Often, folly begins with wishful thinking about other                     people&#8217;s reactions to the actions we propose to take. Distinguish                     between your desires and your logic, remembering that desire                     has the upper hand psychologically.<\/p>\n<p>Don&#8217;t throw good money after bad. Those World War I generals                     poured scores of thousands of men into battle long after nothing                     could be gained by intensifying their effort. There comes                     a point at which to cut your losses. To find that point, consider                     whether the possible good you expect to do for yourself is                     greater or lesser than the possible bad.<\/p>\n<p>Admit your mistakes. No one can count how many lives or                     how much money has been lost because people refuse to change                     course after their mistakes have become clear to everybody                     but themselves (see above, self-deception). This resistance                     to admitting error offers a partial solution of the mystery                     of why folly crops up so persistently.<\/p>\n<p>Don&#8217;t go by theory. Theories are as likely as not to be                     dead wrong, and they should not be used as the basis of action                     until they have been thoroughly tested. In a famous essay,                     Francis Bacon commented on the foolishness of &#8220;taking a questionable                     proposition as an indubitable starting point.&#8221; Only when the                     most obvious questions have been answered should you proceed.<\/p>\n<p>Face the facts, especially facts that get in the way of                     your desires. Folly-prone people have the habit of twisting                     facts around to justify what they want to do. The mind being                     notoriously apt to play tricks, contrary facts are sometimes                     forgotten. Charles Darwin had an antidote to this dangerous                     absent-mindedness: whenever he came upon data unfavourable                     to his hypotheses, he carefully made a note of them, knowing                     that disagreeable information easily slips the mind.<\/p>\n<p>Don&#8217;t go into denial. In pop psychology, denial is neither                     resisting nor forgetting dissonant facts, but simply ignoring                     them. Since denial is self-generated, it cannot be guarded                     against by the interested party. Best to talk things over                     with an experienced person who can speak objectively.<\/p>\n<p>Don&#8217;t get carried away. A characteristic of cases of mass                     hysteria such as the Darien affair is that the great majority                     of those involved are quite convinced of the inevitability                     of success in the face of evidence to the contrary. Then peer                     pressure takes hold. It never does any harm to question what                     &#8220;everybody&#8221; is thinking, saying, or doing. Practice what Descartes                     termed &#8220;methodic doubt.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>Needless to say these handy hints only scratch the surface                     of the avoidance of folly, as do the points made in the above                     discussion of it. In a more sensible world, there would be                     schools and university faculties exclusively devoted to the                     subject, so great is its power to bedevil our lives.<\/p>\n<p>Failing that, the repetition of the same mistakes through                     the generations at least calls for a broader knowledge of                     history among students and the general public. The Greek greats                     were wrong in thinking that folly is inevitable. Rather it                     is something that we should use all the knowledge at our command                     to guard against.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"author":79,"featured_media":0,"template":"","categories":[1],"rbc_letter_theme":[],"rbc_letter_year":[85],"class_list":["post-4152","rbc_letter","type-rbc_letter","status-publish","hentry","category-uncategorized","rbc_letter_year-85"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.2 (Yoast SEO v27.2) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>September 1999 - The Elements of Folly - RBC<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/about-us\/history\/letter\/september-1999-the-elements-of-folly\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"September 1999 - The Elements of Folly - RBC\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Folly is as old as Adam and Eve and as new as today&#8217;s headlines. 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