{"id":4103,"date":"1982-09-01T01:00:00","date_gmt":"1982-09-01T01:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/about-us\/history\/letter\/vol-63-no-5-sept-oct-1982-a-question-of-confidence\/"},"modified":"2022-11-27T02:52:55","modified_gmt":"2022-11-27T02:52:55","slug":"vol-63-no-5-sept-oct-1982-a-question-of-confidence","status":"publish","type":"rbc_letter","link":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/about-us\/history\/letter\/vol-63-no-5-sept-oct-1982-a-question-of-confidence\/","title":{"rendered":"Vol. 63, No. 5 &#8211; Sept.\/Oct. 1982 &#8211; A Question of Confidence"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"layout-column-main\">\n<p class=\"boldtext\">Confidence, it is said, is a plant of slow                     growth that withers easily in a climate of slow growth in                     the economy. It comes in several different varieties, the                     hardiest of which is a cross between faith and hope. Here                     we examine it, and consider the question that has been on                     everybody&#8217;s mind lately: Just what have we got to be confident                     about?<\/p>\n<p> It has become almost habitual in these grim days for political                     and economic commentators to speak of a &#8220;crisis of confidence.&#8221;                     The expression has a suitably heavy ring to it, like the bells                     of doom. It has also proved to be a convenient device for                     explaining away problems for which there is no other obvious                     reason. As a catch-phrase, it has the merit of being at once                     both resounding and vague.<\/p>\n<p>Its wording might be confusing to anyone who has not heard                     it before. It actually means the reverse of what it says.                     It refers not to confidence, but to the lack of it. This lack                     of confidence in the economic future stands in the way of                     efforts to pull the Canadian economy out of its present slump.<\/p>\n<p>Similarly, there is some confusion over the word &#8220;crisis&#8221;                     in this context. Viewers of television news programs, hearing                     the word two or three times a night, may be forgiven for mistakenly                     believing that a crisis is a problem that won&#8217;t go away. But                     it is not what many journalists seem to think it is. A crisis                     is a turning-point at which a condition either gets worse                     or better. Doctors use the word advisedly. A patient in a                     crisis can be expected to recover or die.<\/p>\n<p>Chinese people have a clear idea of the nature of crisis                     because of their lexigraphy. Sociologist Saul Alinsky observed:                     &#8220;The Chinese write the word &#8216;crisis&#8217; with two characters.                     One means <em>danger <\/em>and the other means <em>opportunity<\/em>.&#8221;                     If we think of a crisis that way, a crack of daylight appears                     in the picture. If people are able to clutch the opportunity,                     they might be better off than ever once the danger has passed                     or been overcome.<\/p>\n<p>The question is, does this encouraging thought apply to                     the peculiar state called a crisis of confidence? The answer                     depends on what kind of confidence we are talking about. The                     <em>Oxford English Dictionary <\/em>lists no fewer than seven                     definitions of the word, three of which have a direct bearing                     on the question. All refer to an individual condition as opposed                     to the mass psychology that steers public attitudes, but all                     can be easily converted into mass terms.<\/p>\n<p>The first definition in the <em>Oxford <\/em>is &#8220;the mental                     attitude of trusting in a person or thing.&#8221; To adapt this                     to mass psychology, let us put that &#8220;person&#8221; in the plural,                     and say that those persons are our political and economic                     leaders. Then let us say that the &#8220;things&#8221; referred to are                     our political, social and business institutions. In earlier                     times, it was in their leaders and institutions that people                     placed their trust.<\/p>\n<p>This is not, however, a trusting age. It sometimes looks                     as if the guiding principle of modern journalism, literature                     and higher education is that everyone is guilty until proven                     innocent. The relentless scepticism with which the mass media                     views the world has come to be reflected in public attitudes.<\/p>\n<p>Scepticism is a healthy enough trait up to a point, but                     when it becomes a dominant state of mind, it can develop into                     outright cynicism. The original Greek word for cynic was derived                     from the image of a surly dog snarling at everything it sees.                     &#8220;A cynic is one who never sees a good quality in a man, and                     never fails to see a bad one,&#8221; wrote Henry Ward Beecher. &#8220;The                     cynic puts all human actions in two classes &#8211; openly bad and                     secretly bad.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>Cynicism may not yet have gained control of the public mind,                     but it has at least made enough inroads to affect confidence                     in the sense of trusting in someone or something. At a time                     when its every move comes under suspicion, the leadership                     of society finds it difficult to retain public trust. The                     trouble is that the less trust leaders enjoy, the less they                     are able to lead&#8230; and the less they are able to lead, the                     less they are trusted. It becomes a vicious circle: a lack                     of trust destroys the grounds for trust, and so on.<\/p>\n<p>If one does not feel confident <em>in <\/em>something, it                     is hard to be confident <em>of <\/em>something. Specifically,                     it is hard to be confident of a secure economic future when                     one does not feel confidence in the leadership of the nation                     or the world. Here is where the second definition of confidence                     comes in: &#8220;The feeling sure of a fact or issue; assurance;                     certitude; assured expectation.&#8221; This variety of confidence                     now appears to be in short supply.<\/p>\n<h3>He may not see the horizon, but he knows                   it&#8217;s still there<\/h3>\n<p>In these shifting times, it is virtually impossible to be                     certain of any eventuality. The only people who are sure of                     what they think are the inveterate pessimists who declare                     that the situation can only grow worse. To some extent, this                     is self-fulfilling prophecy, because negativism is contagious.                     &#8220;To believe a business impossible,&#8221; said Jeremy Collier, &#8220;is                     to make it so.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p><em>Between Calls<\/em>, a publication of Industrial Sales                     Development Inc., recently recounted a little parable to this                     effect entitled &#8220;The Man Who Sold Hot Dogs.&#8221; It evidently                     dates back to the 1930s, but it bears repeating today:<\/p>\n<table width=\"415\" border=\"0\" cellspacing=\"0\" cellpadding=\"0\">\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2022\/08\/dotted_quote_line.gif\" width=\"415\" height=\"1\"><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td valign=\"top\">\n<div class=\"quote\">There was a man who lived by the side of the road and sold hot dogs. He was hard of hearing so he had no radio. He had trouble with his eyes so he read no newspapers. But he sold good hot dogs.                        He stood at the side                           of the road and cried: &#8220;Buy a hot dog, Mister?&#8221; And people bought. He increased his meat and bun orders. He bought a bigger stove to take care of his trade. He finally got his son home from college to help him out. Then something happened.                          His son said, &#8220;Father, haven&#8217;t you been listening to the radio? Haven&#8217;t you been reading the newspapers? The European situation is terrible. The domestic situation is worse.&#8221; Whereupon the father thought, &#8220;Well, my son&#8217;s been to college, he reads the papers and he listens to the radio, and he ought to know.&#8221; So the father cut down his meat and bun orders, took down his signs, and no longer bothered to stand out on the highway and sell his hot dogs. And his hot dog sales fell almost overnight.                          &#8220;You&#8217;re right, son,&#8221; said the father to the boy. &#8220;We certainly are in the middle of a great depression.&#8221;<\/div>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2022\/08\/dotted_quote_line.gif\" width=\"415\" height=\"1\"><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p>With so much gloom hanging in the air, people are unable                     to see what is ahead of them. They naturally hesitate to move                     into the unknown. They want reassurance that they will not                     stumble &#8211; or fall and break their necks &#8211; before they commit                   themselves.<\/p>\n<p>They &#8211; and the economy &#8211; are suffering the pangs of uncertainty.                     Uncertainty is associated with a lack of confidence, but the                     two are not necessarily synonymous. Uncertainty will stop                     some people in their tracks, while others will take it in                     stride as a normal part of living. In fact, a person may well                     feel uncertain and confident at the same time.<\/p>\n<p>That is, he may have doubts about his prospects in the short                     run, but still be confident of reaching the goals he has set                     for himself in the long run. He might not be able to see the                     horizon in the current murk, but he has not forgotten that                     it is there. He does not ask for certainty at any time, because                     he knows that &#8220;sure things&#8221; do not exist in real life any                     more than they do at a racetrack. There are no certainties,                     only probabilities. He calculates that those probabilities                     will work in his favour over time.<\/p>\n<p>This is a manifestation of confidence according to the third                     definition of the word: &#8220;Assurance, boldness, fearlessness,                     arising from reliance (on oneself, on circumstances, on divine                     support, etc.).&#8221; Note the difference between this and the                     other two. With this kind of confidence, you do not depend                     on something or somebody else; you do not depend on a guarantee                     of security. You depend on yourself, on your surroundings,                     and on the things you believe in. You make your own way.<\/p>\n<h3>It is natural to wonder whether you will ever be                     the same                     again<\/h3>\n<p>At the crossroads of opportunity and danger, you clearly                     recognize the danger. You also recognize, however, that there                     is a fighting chance that danger can be overcome. For societies                     as for individuals, the worst danger of all lies in the loss                     of this cool assurance. In warfare, it is what turns an orderly                     withdrawal into a bloody debacle. &#8220;Self-distrust is the cause                     of most of our failures,&#8221; wrote Christian Novell Bovey. &#8220;In                     the assurance of strength, there is strength, and they are                     weakest, however strong, who have no faith in themselves and                     in their own powers.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>We all occasionally lose faith in our ability to cope with                     the world, especially when we are not feeling well. To people                     who are used to an active life, the sudden loss of strength                     due to illness comes as a distinct shock. They are likely                     to wonder whether their strength, or at least a significant                     part of it, has permanently deserted them. Their doctors may                     tell them that the loss of strength is only temporary, but                     there are dark moments when they feel that they will never                     be the same again.<\/p>\n<h3>A strength that lies so deep that it is almost                   out of sight<\/h3>\n<p>Economic problems are often likened to physical ailments                     (investment analysts like to refer to a falling market as                     &#8220;sick&#8221;) and they have much the same psychological effect on                     people. They experience periods of depression when it seems                     that all is lost. To hear some Canadians talk about the present                     slump, one would think that the reserves of strength in this                     young and basically robust nation have been almost exhausted.                     This is simply not so; our basic strengths are intact, but                     they need more exercise.<\/p>\n<p>Still, it is fair enough to ask just what those strengths                     might be, considering all the signs of weakness around us.                     Our standard of living relative to other countries has slipped                     in recent years, a large proportion of our labour force is                     unemployed, and our dollar certainly is not what it used to                     be. The answer is that the strength is down so deep that it                     is not immediately apparent. It lies largely in things which                     we take for granted, but which are greatly envied in other                     parts of the world.<\/p>\n<p>For example, we are accustomed to living with generally                     high standards of health care and education, with political                     stability and democratic institutions. These might be considered                     mere social niceties from a hard-headed economic point-of-view.                     But think of what our economy would be like without them &#8211;                     if our labour force were not adaptable and trainable, if we                     were regularly subject to civil violence, if people did not                     feel that they had a stake in the system. Things like these                     make up the tissue of a fundamentally healthy body politic                     &#8211; one that is able to rally and recover from its periodic                     economic ills.<\/p>\n<p>In strict economic terms, Canada has pronounced underlying                     advantages. It is an advanced country technologically. Its                     manufacturing plant and equipment, on the whole, is reasonably                     up-to-date. Its agriculture is highly productive, its financial                     system functions well, and it has excellent transportation                     and communications facilities. In other words, its economic                     infrastructure is sound.<\/p>\n<h3>A nation founded on boldness, hope,                     and precious little                     else<\/h3>\n<p>Then there are Canada&#8217;s abundant natural resources, which                     continue to hold great potential for the future. Historically,                     the discovery and development of the natural riches of this                     harsh and inhospitable land have been among the stiffest challenges                     Canadians have had to surmount. We should never forget that                     the national bounty in which we all indirectly share would                     have remained in the ground and under the water if our pioneers                     had not risked their lives, limbs and money to release it                     from the hard grip of nature. Canada&#8217;s good fortune in this                     respect was not given; it was earned.<\/p>\n<p>To discover the reserves of strength in themselves, present-day                     Canadians could do worse than look back to those who have                     come this way before them. These were the people who shot                     the rapids, climbed the mountains, cleared the forests, dug                     the mines, broke the sod and built the dams. They did not                     let adversity get them down for long &#8211; how could they in a                     land of such ruggedness and loneliness, such cruel weather,                     such endless distances to conquer? They had an abundance of                     the combination of faith and hope that makes confidence. And                     when they came together to form a nation, critics called it                     a triumph of confidence over common sense.<\/p>\n<h3>&#8220;In self-confidence, and that alone,                   we have gone downhill&#8221;<\/h3>\n<p>&#8220;Let us confess the truth: in self-confidence and self-confidence                     alone, we have gone downhill since 1867,&#8221; Bruce Hutchison                     wrote on Canada&#8217;s centenary. It is strange that the people                     of a nation that was founded on boldness, hope and very little                     else should from time to time show a serious lack of faith                     in themselves.<\/p>\n<p>True, confidence in Canada has always taken wide swings.                     A decade-by-decade study of public mood since Confederation                     shows an almost manic-depressive pattern. Canadians have been                     overconfident at some times and under-confident at others.                     In our spells of over-confidence, we have tried to take more                     out of our economy than it was capable of giving. The under-confidence                     occurred when we had temporarily run it down, then doubted                     its ability to bounce back.<\/p>\n<p>But this &#8220;is a goodly land, endowed with vast recuperative                     powers,&#8221; as the early Liberal Party leader Edward Blake once                     commented. Through the best and worst of times, Canada has                     always managed to make real progress &#8211; progress being, in                     the memorable words of Will Durant, &#8220;the domination of chaos                     by mind and purpose, of matter by form and will.&#8221; In the long                     run, the land has more than repaid the hope and faith which                     generations of Canadians have poured into it. No doubt it                     will continue to do so as long as Canadians have faith in                     it &#8211; and faith in themselves.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"author":79,"featured_media":0,"template":"","categories":[1],"rbc_letter_theme":[],"rbc_letter_year":[69],"class_list":["post-4103","rbc_letter","type-rbc_letter","status-publish","hentry","category-uncategorized","rbc_letter_year-69"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.2 (Yoast SEO v27.2) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Vol. 63, No. 5 - Sept.\/Oct. 1982 - A Question of Confidence - RBC<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/about-us\/history\/letter\/vol-63-no-5-sept-oct-1982-a-question-of-confidence\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Vol. 63, No. 5 - Sept.\/Oct. 1982 - A Question of Confidence - RBC\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Confidence, it is said, is a plant of slow growth that withers easily in a climate of slow growth in the economy. 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It comes in several different varieties, the hardiest of which is a cross between faith and hope. 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