{"id":1801,"date":"2026-05-29T19:46:17","date_gmt":"2026-05-29T19:46:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/tl\/canada-and-mexicos-american-trade-travails-in-charts\/"},"modified":"2026-06-24T21:57:17","modified_gmt":"2026-06-24T21:57:17","slug":"canada-and-mexicos-american-trade-travails-in-charts","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/thought-leadership\/geopolitics-trade-and-the-economy\/canada-and-mexicos-american-trade-travails-in-charts\/","title":{"rendered":"Trade Zone:\u00a0Canada and Mexico\u2019s American trade travails\u2014in charts\u00a0"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<div\n\tid=\"tl-fpb-1\"\n\tstyle=\"background-image:url(https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/thought-leadership\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/27\/2026\/06\/TZ-5.29-Blog-Image_Banner-wide.jpg?quality=80&amp;w=4096);background-position:50% 50%;background-size:cover;min-height:500px\" class=\"tl-featured-post-banner wp-block-rbc-thought-leadership-blocks-featured-post-banner\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"tl-featured-post-banner__gradient\" style=\"position:absolute;top:0;left:0;right:0;bottom:0;z-index:0;pointer-events:none;\"><\/div>\n\t\n\t<div class=\"tl-featured-post-banner__inner\">\n\t\t\t\t<a\n\t\t\tclass=\"tl-pill tl-pill--banner\"\n\t\t\thref=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/thought-leadership\/geopolitics-trade-and-the-economy\"\n\t\t>\n\t\t\tGeopolitics, Trade and the Economy\t\t<\/a>\n\t\t\n\t\t<div class=\"tl-featured-post-banner__content\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<h2 class=\"tl-featured-post-banner__title\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/thought-leadership\/geopolitics-trade-and-the-economy\/canada-and-mexicos-american-trade-travails-in-charts\/\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\tTrade Zone:\u00a0Canada and Mexico\u2019s American trade travails\u2014in charts\u00a0\t\t\t\t\t<\/a>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/h2>\n\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<p class=\"tl-featured-post-banner__excerpt\">\n\t\t\t\tTariff-hit sectors squeezed both countries, but AI lifted Mexico\t\t\t<\/p>\n\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<section class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-block  pos-rel\" style=\"border-radius:0px\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-inner-block  section-inner\" style=\"border-radius:0x\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">While the U.S. and Mexico were kicking off bilateral talks on CUSMA (and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/business\/us-mexico-set-three-rounds-trade-deal-talks-without-canada-2026-05-27\/\" data-dig-id=\"LP-28075-5bdd4e8f\" data-dig-label=\"announced\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-category=\"LP\" class=\"rbc-link-format\">announced<\/a> two more sets of meetings in June and July, without a mention of Canada), Prime Minister Mark Carney was in New York <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cbc.ca\/news\/politics\/carney-new-york-speech-9.7214907\" data-dig-id=\"LP-28075-b0f10151\" data-dig-label=\"making the country\u2019s case\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-category=\"LP\" class=\"rbc-link-format\">making the country\u2019s case<\/a> to a business audience.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">As the U.S. pivots to bilateral talks in its effort to reshape North American trade dynamics, we examine how Canada and Mexico have fared as the U.S. squeezed both with tariffs and other economic pressures.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h6 class=\"wp-block-heading has-text-align-center mar-b-0 mob-mar-b-0 mar-t mob-mar-t\" id=\"h-mexico-s-exports-to-the-u-s-soared-canada-s-slipped-in-2025\"><strong>Mexico\u2019s exports to the U.S. soared, Canada\u2019s slipped in 2025<\/strong><\/h6>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center mar-t-0 mob-mar-t-0 pad-t-0 mob-pad-t-0 mar-b-0 mob-mar-b-0 wp-block-paragraph\">Annual U.S. imports from Canada and Mexico, billion US$<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large mar-l mob-mar-l mar-r mob-mar-r\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2026\/05\/TZ-5.29-Chart-US-Imports-from-Mexico-Copy.png?quality=80&amp;w=1024\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-28081\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-rbc-list is-style-blue-disc\">\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p class=\"mar-t mob-mar-t wp-block-paragraph\">Despite one of the lowest effective tariff rates of ~3-4%, thanks to CUSMA shielding ~90% of Canadian exports, the U.S. imported nearly US$30 billion less goods from Canada\u2014the second largest drop among U.S. trading partners behind only China.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Canada\u2019s loss was almost identical to Mexico\u2019s gain. It remains America\u2019s largest import source and has extended its lead on the rest of the pack.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Both Canada and Mexico were at the epicenter of the tariff war, yet the divergence came down to the product mix, and new emerging trends, such as AI.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h6 class=\"wp-block-heading has-text-align-center mar-b-0 mob-mar-b-0 pad-b-0 mob-pad-b-0 mob-mar-t mar-t\" id=\"h-tariff-hit-sectors-squeezed-both-countries-but-ai-lifted-mexico\"><strong>Tariff-hit sectors squeezed both countries, but AI lifted Mexico<\/strong><\/h6>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center mar-b-0 mob-mar-b-0 pad-b-0 mob-pad-b-0 wp-block-paragraph\">Change in imports compared to 2024 by product categories, billion US$<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2026\/05\/TZ-5.29-Chart-AI-lifts-Mexico-Copy.png?quality=80&amp;w=1024\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-28083\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p class=\"mar-t mob-mar-t wp-block-paragraph\">Canada\u2019s losses were broad-based. U.S. purchases from Canada fell across product categories that accounted for 84% of all imports from Canada. Lower oil volumes along with soft oil prices in 2025 accounted for a third of the drop in imports, with auto, steel and aluminum extending the decline by nearly as much.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Like Canada, Mexico reeled from the Section 232 tariffs. The U.S. imported US$13 billion less in auto and parts from Mexico, accounting for half of the decline.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The AI boom, however, lifted Mexico\u2019s trade balance. The U.S. imported US$250 billion data processing units last year\u2014almost double what it bought a year earlier\u2014and Mexico was the single largest seller, supplying a third of that.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Data processing machines climbed to the top of the Mexico\u2019s export ladder displacing passenger cars. Mexico\u2019s share in global supply has doubled over the past two years, now supplying 18% of the US$550 billion global imports, and rapidly catching up to China and Taiwan.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h6 class=\"wp-block-heading has-text-align-center mar-b-0 mob-mar-b-0 pad-b-0 mob-pad-b-0 mob-mar-t mar-t\" id=\"h-manufacturing-sector-remained-soft-throughout-2025\"><strong><strong>Manufacturing sector remained soft throughout 2025<\/strong><\/strong><\/h6>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center mar-b-0 mob-mar-b-0 pad-b-0 mob-pad-b-0 wp-block-paragraph\">Manufacturing Purchasing Managers\u2019 Index (PMI)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2026\/05\/TZ-5.29-Chart-Manufacturing-sector-Copy.png?quality=80&amp;w=1024\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-28089\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Canada\u2019s manufacturing sector, which makes up a tenth of the economy, took far more than a tenth of the pain, with GDP down 2.5% in 2025, marking a third consecutive decline. The squeeze was broad-based\u201414 of the 18 manufacturing subsectors contracted, from transport equipment and food &amp; beverage to chemical and metal products.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Both countries shed factory jobs in 2025 but things are now diverging. Canada is regaining footing on its factory floor, with PMI climbing above 50 this year\u2014seen as a level that signals expansion driven by new orders. Mexico\u2019s manufacturing has been trending within the contraction zone for the past 22 months, long before tariffs were introduced, and shows no signs of immediate recovery.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h6 class=\"wp-block-heading has-text-align-center mar-b-0 mob-mar-b-0 pad-b-0 mob-pad-b-0 mob-mar-t mar-t\" id=\"h-u-s-tariff-impact-less-damaging-than-feared-for-both-canada-and-mexico\"><strong><strong><strong>U.S. tariff impact less damaging than feared for both Canada and Mexico<\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/h6>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center mar-b-0 mob-mar-b-0 pad-b-0 mob-pad-b-0 wp-block-paragraph\">Projection and actual real GDP growth for 2025<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2026\/05\/TZ-5.29-Chart-Impact-of-tariffs-Copy.png?quality=80&amp;w=1024\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-28091\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Doom and gloom scenarios did not materialize thanks largely to CUSMA, though tariffs shaved off about a fifth of Canada\u2019s pre-trade war growth expectations, and over half for Mexico.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Resilient consumer demand and fiscal policy provided a cushion for the Canadian economy. Mexico saw the opposite trend as the government tightened its budget. Meanwhile, remittances from the U.S. dropped 4.6%, partially due to an immigration crackdown and softening household consumption.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u2014<strong>&nbsp;Farhad Panahov<\/strong>, Economist<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>For more: <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/us-analysis\/us-featured-analysis\/one-year-later-how-us-tariffs-and-trade-policy-have-reshaped-the-landscape\/\" data-dig-id=\"LP-28075-25f847f1\" data-dig-label=\"One year later: How US tariffs and trade policy have reshaped the landscape - RBC Economics\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-category=\"LP\" class=\"rbc-link-format\">One year later: How US tariffs and trade policy have reshaped the landscape &#8211; RBC Economics<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/canadian-analysis\/featured-analysis\/insights\/one-year-of-tariff-shocks-in-canada-what-we-learned\/\" data-dig-id=\"LP-28075-bd505891\" data-dig-category=\"LP\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-label=\"One year of tariff shocks in Canada: What we learned\" class=\"rbc-link-format\">One year of tariff shocks in Canada: What we learned<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n\n\n\n<section class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-block  pos-rel\" style=\"border-radius:0px\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-inner-block  section-inner\" style=\"border-radius:0x\">\n<h2 id=\"h-the-week-that-was\" class=\"wp-block-heading has-rbc-bright-blue-color has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-4f73da05a5cdff63dae7678e1b1441a2\">The week that was<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.ft.com\/content\/e28fe696-ac30-4543-a105-febc82789f87?syn-25a6b1a6=1\" data-dig-id=\"LP-28075-98491821\" data-dig-category=\"LP\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-label=\"Brussels\" class=\"rbc-link-format\">Brussels<\/a> prepares broader&nbsp;measures&nbsp;against Chinese imports<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-rbc-list is-style-blue-disc\">\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The European Commission signalled it will expand the use of import quotas and safeguard tariffs across entire sectors as&nbsp;concerns grow over Chinese overcapacity in chemicals, metals, clean technology, and manufacturing. Industry Commissioner St\u00e9phane S\u00e9journ\u00e9 said the EU\u2019s trade deficit with China has reached roughly \u20ac1 billion per day, with policymakers increasingly framing the issue as a threat to European industrial competitiveness.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.ctvnews.ca\/business\/article\/india-sending-trade-delegation-billed-as-largest-ever-to-canada-this-week\/\" data-dig-id=\"LP-28075-ec0bc06a\" data-dig-category=\"LP\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-label=\"India\" class=\"rbc-link-format\">India<\/a> sends largest-ever trade delegation to Canada<\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-rbc-list is-style-blue-disc\">\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Indian Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal led an Indian trade and investment delegation as Ottawa and New Delhi look to accelerate free trade negotiations and target $50 billion in bilateral trade by 2030, up from roughly $10 billion today.&nbsp;<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.wto.org\/english\/news_e\/news26_e\/dgno_28may26_395_e.htm\" data-dig-id=\"LP-28075-61271a0c\" data-dig-category=\"LP\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-label=\"Shipping\" class=\"rbc-link-format\">Shipping<\/a> industry warns of rising costs and capacity constraints<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-rbc-list is-style-blue-disc\">\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Global shipping executives told the World Trade Organization that disruptions in the Gulf region and other maritime chokepoints are driving up costs across supply chains, while alternative transport corridors face growing capacity constraints. Industry leaders noted that a single container ship can carry the equivalent of roughly 70 freight trains.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.ft.com\/content\/88ec90e1-2927-4cb0-afbf-2df1ca6d53fa?syn-25a6b1a6=1\" data-dig-id=\"LP-28075-0d1ee0f3\" data-dig-category=\"LP\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-label=\"ECB\" class=\"rbc-link-format\">ECB<\/a> warns geopolitics are becoming a financial stability risk<\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-rbc-list is-style-blue-disc\">\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The European Central Bank warned that the Iran conflict, volatile U.S. trade policy, and growing geoeconomic fragmentation are increasing risks to global financial stability. The Bank cautioned that markets may be underestimating the potential economic impact of prolonged energy disruptions, elevated sovereign debt levels, and renewed inflationary pressures stemming from geopolitical shocks.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">&#8212;<strong>Thomas Ashcroft<\/strong>, Global Issues Policy Lead<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n<style class=\"advgb-styles-renderer\">@media (min-width:782px){#tl-fpb-1 .tl-featured-post-banner__gradient{background:linear-gradient(135deg, #070707, #00356300 100%);opacity:1;}}@media (max-width:781px){#tl-fpb-1{background-image:url(https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/thought-leadership\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/27\/2026\/06\/TZ-5.29-Blog-Image_Banner-wide.jpg?quality=80&w=4096)!important;background-position:50% 50%!important;background-size:cover!important;min-height:400px!important;}#tl-fpb-1 .tl-featured-post-banner__gradient{background:linear-gradient(45deg, #070707, #00356300 100%);opacity:1;}}<\/style>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Tariff-hit sectors squeezed both countries, but AI lifted Mexico<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":89,"featured_media":4797,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"disable_focal_point":false,"featured_image_focal_point":{"x":0.49,"y":0.5},"advgb_blocks_editor_width":"","advgb_blocks_columns_visual_guide":"","editor_notices":[],"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[127],"tags":[],"rbc_tl_platform":[133],"rbc_tl_newsletter":[144],"rbc_tl_content_type":[142],"rbc_tl_author":[179],"class_list":["post-1801","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-geopolitics-trade-and-the-economy","rbc_tl_platform-the-trade-hub","rbc_tl_newsletter-the-trade-zone","rbc_tl_content_type-newsletter","rbc_tl_author-rbc-thought-leadership"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.7 (Yoast SEO v27.7) - 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