{"id":9962,"date":"2026-04-24T15:51:36","date_gmt":"2026-04-24T15:51:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/?p=9962"},"modified":"2026-04-24T15:51:37","modified_gmt":"2026-04-24T15:51:37","slug":"fiscal-roundup-provinces-deepen-deficit-track-ahead-of-federal-update","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/canadian-analysis\/provincial-and-fiscal-outlooks\/other-fiscal-analysis\/fiscal-roundup-provinces-deepen-deficit-track-ahead-of-federal-update\/","title":{"rendered":"Fiscal roundup: Provinces deepen deficit track ahead of federal update"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<section class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-block  pos-rel\" style=\"border-radius:0px\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-inner-block  section-inner\" style=\"border-radius:0x\">\n<p>Twice annually we consolidate federal and provincial fiscal balances to understand how it may affect the economy. As we await new federal numbers in the April 28 spring update for a complete analysis, here we dive into changing provincial deficit projections from 2026 budgets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-rbc-list is-style-chevron-list\">\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>Projected provincial balances represent a combined deficit of 1.1% of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2026-27, stable relative to 2025-26, and 0.6% of GDP higher than in fall projections. A higher combined deficit is also expected for 2027-28 versus the fall.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>Adding back in various excluded contingencies would result in a notably higher collective deficit.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>High oil prices from the Middle East conflict could swing Alberta\u2019s reported 1.8% of GDP deficit in 2026-27 to a 1.2% surplus.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>All provinces reported higher deficits for 2026-27, except for Quebec, with a similar story for 2027-28. Higher budgeted healthcare spending was a core contributor. Meanwhile, New Brunswick, Prince Edward Island, and Nova Scotia numbers reveal a marked fiscal deterioration.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>The federal update will reveal whether the lower-than-expected 2025-26 deficit in monthly tracking translates into a lower projection for 2025-26, and how that carries across the forecast.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-wide wide\" \/>\n\n\n\n<div id=\"everviz-TJz08iWmg\" class=\"everviz-TJz08iWmg\" data-view=\"graph\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-wide wide\" \/>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading has-rbc-bright-blue-color has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-9f769b5f878056c2a8eee65e32e9f468\" id=\"h-collective-provincial-deficit-jumped-this-budget-round\">Collective provincial deficit jumped this budget round<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>With nine out of 10 provinces reporting, the combined provincial deficit for 2025-26\u2014the fiscal year just ended\u2014is expected to be 1.1% of GDP. It\u2019s the same as fall estimates, and similar to 2025 budgets (rounded up <a href=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/canadian-analysis\/featured-analysis\/insights\/canadian-fiscal-will-better-growth-delayed-spending-soften-deficit-blow\/\">here<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/canadian-analysis\/provincial-and-fiscal-outlooks\/budget-analysis\/hey-big-spender-canadas-federal-and-provincial-spending-an-upside-to-growth-forecasts\/\">here<\/a>).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>However, the collective fiscal balance eroded in subsequent years, with&nbsp;the deficit 0.6% of GDP higher&nbsp;in 2026-27 and 2027-28&nbsp;than in fall projections. As a result, the collective provincial deficit (contingencies removed) is expected to be unchanged year-over-year in 2026-27 at 1.1% of GDP before falling to&nbsp;0.6%&nbsp;in 2027-2028, and 0.3% in 2028-2029\u2014the final forecast year available for all provinces.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>These numbers exclude reserves, contingencies and other unallocated deductions (\u201ccontingencies\u201d) from the fiscal balance since they can distort comparability.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>There were big increases in budgeted contingencies\u2014published deficit numbers inclusive of these amounts increased by almost 1% of GDP in 2026-27 and 2027-28. If realized, provincial deficits as a share of the economy would trend upwards this year versus the stable profile expected now.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-rbc-rbc-default-collapsible\"><p><button class=\"collapse-toggle collapsed\" data-target=\"#collapse7d8bf610\" data-toggle=\"collapse\" aria-expanded=\"false\" aria-controls=\"collapse7d8bf610\" data-dig-id=\"LP-ProvincialandFiscalOutlooks-Otherfiscalanalysis-9962-7d8bf610\" data-dig-category=\"LP-ProvincialandFiscalOutlooks-Otherfiscalanalysis\" data-dig-action=\"accordion closed\" action-closed=\"accordion closed\" action-opened=\"accordion open\" data-dig-label=\"\u2018Contingencies\u2019\"><div>\u2018Contingencies\u2019<\/div><\/button><\/p><div class=\"collapse-content collapse\" id=\"collapse7d8bf610\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-rbc-collapsible-inner-block collapse-inner\">\n<section class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-block  pos-rel\" style=\"border-radius:0px\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-inner-block inner-section-ocean section-inner  has-e-4-eeff-background-color has-background\" style=\"border-radius:0x\">\n<p>About a quarter represent Quebec\u2019s contributions to its Generations Fund, which are consolidated with provincial finances per accounting standards. Other amounts may correspond with suspected pressures known inside government, but it&#8217;s been a mixed bag of tapping into them in recent years. They are omitted for analysis, especially since they vary significantly by province and year.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n<\/div>\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading has-rbc-bright-blue-color has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-3e768bca7a766deac0bb65f4f0be4d3a\" id=\"h-high-oil-prices-could-almost-cancel-2026-27-upward-revision-to-collective-deficit\">High oil prices could almost cancel 2026-27 upward revision to collective deficit<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>Budget assumptions were largely set before the Middle East conflict, but high oil prices could improve Alberta\u2019s fiscal balance enough to leave the collective 2026-27 deficit much lower\u2014closer to fall projections at only 0.6% of GDP versus 1.1% noted above (no contingencies).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This is an example of the large distributional effects of oil price shocks on the Canadian economy even as the current shock is likely to be relatively neutral on growth in aggregate, at this time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Alberta reported a large, projected erosion in its 2026-27 balance in its budget 2026, partly on the assumption that West Texas Intermediate oil would average only US$61 per barrel. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/financial-markets-monthly\/higher-oil-prices-lift-headline-cpi-but-arent-expected-to-reignite-systemic-inflation\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" data-dig-id=\"LP-ProvincialandFiscalOutlooks-Otherfiscalanalysis-9962-7d091b07\" data-dig-label=\"Our current forecast\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-category=\"LP-ProvincialandFiscalOutlooks-Otherfiscalanalysis\" class=\"rbc-link-format\">Our current forecast<\/a><sup data-fn=\"1ac42f51-39e0-4395-8e4a-04a9155cd4c8\" class=\"fn\"><a href=\"#1ac42f51-39e0-4395-8e4a-04a9155cd4c8\" id=\"1ac42f51-39e0-4395-8e4a-04a9155cd4c8-link\">1<\/a><\/sup> has it averaging almost US$80 in 2026-27 before returning close to prior expectations in 2027-28. Using Alberta\u2019s published fiscal sensitivities, this could yield an additional $13 billion in-year, playing the starring role in swinging its budgeted 2026-27 deficit to a potential 1.2% surplus. Saskatchewan and Newfoundland could also see (much) smaller improvements.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Harmonizing provincial balances to a common (RBC Economics) nominal GDP forecast results in other small deviations\u2014Alberta deficit lower and British Columbia higher\u2014that net out to small changes overall<sup data-fn=\"9bbc5edf-5b53-439e-a6c4-2636faec0326\" class=\"fn\"><a href=\"#9bbc5edf-5b53-439e-a6c4-2636faec0326\" id=\"9bbc5edf-5b53-439e-a6c4-2636faec0326-link\">2<\/a><\/sup>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-wide wide\" \/>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1563\" height=\"979\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/04\/chart-2-2.png?quality=80\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-10005\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/04\/chart-2-2.png 1563w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/04\/chart-2-2.png?resize=300,188 300w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/04\/chart-2-2.png?resize=768,481 768w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/04\/chart-2-2.png?resize=1024,641 1024w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/04\/chart-2-2.png?resize=1536,962 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1563px) 100vw, 1563px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-wide wide\" \/>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading has-rbc-bright-blue-color has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-0d8f593d0751da5fa451e51773b4c2d5\" id=\"h-healthcare-spending-main-driver-of-higher-deficits\">Healthcare spending main driver of higher deficits<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>Setting aside the revised Alberta narrative, all reporting provinces revised 2026-27 deficits higher (no contingencies), except for Quebec, with a similar story for 2027-28.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<section class=\"wp-block-rbc-rbc-tabs-block aligncenter  section-tabs full-width tabs-scroll is-style-default\" id=\"Canadian-income-quintiles\" aria-label=\"Section Tabs\"><div class=\"section-inner \"><ul class=\"tab-nav \" role=\"tablist\"><li role=\"presentation\"><a href=\"#section-content-16f2699a\" id=\"section-tab-16f2699a\" role=\"tab\" data-toggle=\"tab\" data-bs-toggle=\"tab\" data-bs-target=\"#section-content-16f2699a\" aria-controls=\"section-content-16f2699a\" aria-selected=\"false\" data-dig-id=\"LP-ProvincialandFiscalOutlooks-Otherfiscalanalysis-9962-16f2699a\" data-dig-category=\"LP-ProvincialandFiscalOutlooks-Otherfiscalanalysis\" data-dig-action=\"tab select\" data-dig-label=\"2026-27\">2026-27<\/a><\/li><li role=\"presentation\"><a href=\"#section-content-2fa9df2f\" id=\"section-tab-2fa9df2f\" role=\"tab\" data-toggle=\"tab\" data-bs-toggle=\"tab\" data-bs-target=\"#section-content-2fa9df2f\" aria-controls=\"section-content-2fa9df2f\" aria-selected=\"false\" data-dig-id=\"LP-ProvincialandFiscalOutlooks-Otherfiscalanalysis-9962-2fa9df2f\" data-dig-category=\"LP-ProvincialandFiscalOutlooks-Otherfiscalanalysis\" data-dig-action=\"tab select\" data-dig-label=\"2027-28\">2027-28<\/a><\/li><\/ul><div class=\"tab-ctrl\"><button class=\"tabs-prev hidden\"><span class=\"offscreen\">Go to previous tab<\/span><\/button><button class=\"tabs-next\"><span class=\"offscreen\">Go to next tab<\/span><\/button><\/div><div class=\"tab-content\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-rbc-rbc-tab-content\"><div role=\"tabpanel\" class=\"tab-pane\" aria-labelledby=\"section-tab-16f2699a\" id=\"section-content-16f2699a\" tabindex=\"0\">\n<div id=\"everviz-r1LgcN2ej\" class=\"everviz-r1LgcN2ej\" data-view=\"graph\"><\/div>\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-rbc-rbc-tab-content\"><div role=\"tabpanel\" class=\"tab-pane\" aria-labelledby=\"section-tab-2fa9df2f\" id=\"section-content-2fa9df2f\" tabindex=\"0\">\n<div id=\"everviz-Emrc-8sLz\" class=\"everviz-Emrc-8sLz\" data-view=\"graph\"><\/div>\n<\/div><\/div>\n<\/div><\/div><\/section>\n\n\n\n<p>Drivers are nuanced for individual provinces, but in aggregate, higher healthcare spending was the main reason for eroded fiscal balances. It contributed more than 100% of the combined deficit increase for the big four provinces, led by Alberta and Ontario.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Like for some education spending, high levels are probably partly a holdover from exceptionally high in-migration in recent years, although we have highlighted <a href=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/canadian-analysis\/featured-analysis\/insights\/canada-faces-peak-aging-as-final-boomers-retire-and-population-growth-slows\/\">before<\/a> that provinces are still in the early days of rising baby boomer healthcare costs. As partial offsets, higher revenues helped only a little with lower expenses in other spending categories more important.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-wide wide\" \/>\n\n\n\n<div id=\"everviz-DsY6HGDy7\" class=\"everviz-DsY6HGDy7\" data-view=\"graph\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-wide wide\" \/>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading has-rbc-bright-blue-color has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-62d921492f3cbcd9d93c8ed2a4d508fb\" id=\"h-atlantic-provinces-see-marked-fiscal-deterioration\">Atlantic provinces see marked fiscal deterioration<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>New Brunswick, Prince Edward Island, and Nova Scotia saw the most significant deficit jumps as a share of the economy relative to fall projections. Higher healthcare spending played a key role in these revisions. Importantly, all three expect to maintain deficits of more than 1% of GDP by the end of the forecast period in 2028-29.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>As a result, 2026 budgets bake in very significant increases in the expected net debt-to-GDP ratio relative to 2024-25. These provinces already had higher-than-average debt burdens.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<section class=\"wp-block-rbc-rbc-tabs-block alignfull  section-tabs full-width tabs-scroll is-style-default\" aria-label=\"Section Tabs\"><div class=\"section-inner \"><ul class=\"tab-nav \" role=\"tablist\"><li role=\"presentation\"><a href=\"#section-content-66a940e9\" id=\"section-tab-66a940e9\" role=\"tab\" data-toggle=\"tab\" data-bs-toggle=\"tab\" data-bs-target=\"#section-content-66a940e9\" aria-controls=\"section-content-66a940e9\" aria-selected=\"false\" data-dig-id=\"LP-ProvincialandFiscalOutlooks-Otherfiscalanalysis-9962-66a940e9\" data-dig-category=\"LP-ProvincialandFiscalOutlooks-Otherfiscalanalysis\" data-dig-action=\"tab select\" data-dig-label=\"Deficits\">Deficits<\/a><\/li><li role=\"presentation\"><a href=\"#section-content-c4e8afbc\" id=\"section-tab-c4e8afbc\" role=\"tab\" data-toggle=\"tab\" data-bs-toggle=\"tab\" data-bs-target=\"#section-content-c4e8afbc\" aria-controls=\"section-content-c4e8afbc\" aria-selected=\"false\" data-dig-id=\"LP-ProvincialandFiscalOutlooks-Otherfiscalanalysis-9962-c4e8afbc\" data-dig-category=\"LP-ProvincialandFiscalOutlooks-Otherfiscalanalysis\" data-dig-action=\"tab select\" data-dig-label=\"Debt\">Debt<\/a><\/li><\/ul><div class=\"tab-ctrl\"><button class=\"tabs-prev hidden\"><span class=\"offscreen\">Go to previous tab<\/span><\/button><button class=\"tabs-next\"><span class=\"offscreen\">Go to next tab<\/span><\/button><\/div><div class=\"tab-content\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-rbc-rbc-tab-content\"><div role=\"tabpanel\" class=\"tab-pane show active\" aria-labelledby=\"section-tab-66a940e9\" id=\"section-content-66a940e9\" tabindex=\"0\">\n<div id=\"everviz-Zlzmhepzs\" class=\"everviz-Zlzmhepzs\" data-view=\"graph\"><\/div>\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-rbc-rbc-tab-content\"><div role=\"tabpanel\" class=\"tab-pane\" aria-labelledby=\"section-tab-c4e8afbc\" id=\"section-content-c4e8afbc\" tabindex=\"0\">\n<div id=\"everviz--TMB9Kvum\" class=\"everviz--TMB9Kvum\" data-view=\"graph\"><\/div>\n<\/div><\/div>\n<\/div><\/div><\/section>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading has-rbc-bright-blue-color has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-86cd928a941659446b803189b5230018\" id=\"h-full-picture-to-come-with-feds-and-newfoundland\">Full picture to come with feds and Newfoundland<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>In the fall, the combined federal and provincial fiscal balance looked like it would total a deficit of 3.5% of GDP&nbsp;(no contingencies) in 2025-26\u2014the fiscal year just ended\u2014before falling but remaining at elevated levels. Large federal deficits from budget 2025 represented 70%-plus of the total balance across forecast years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Provincial budgets now look to deliver higher-than-previously-expected deficits in outer years, but there\u2019s a chance of more consequential changes on the federal side.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Based on results to date for 2025-26 (10 out of 12 months), the federal deficit is tracking way below budget, about 1% of GDP versus 2.4% planned. A surprisingly resilient Canadian economy has been boosting revenues, especially corporate taxes, but with outlooks not significantly changed, lower-than-planned spending is also at play.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The spring update is expected to factor in a higher rate of spending for the final months of the year, and a significant year-end add to the provision for contingent liabilities to come closer to budget numbers. Our estimate for the full-year 2025-26 deficit is under 2% of GDP.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The key question is how 2025-26 developments translate into deficit projections for the current year onwards. A portion of higher revenues and slower pace of spending should carry across the forecast, but slower implementation of prior measures and other spending pressures are likely to lead to a large share of funds being reprofiled or reallocated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-wide wide\" \/>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center\"><strong>About the author:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Cynthia Leach<\/strong><em>&nbsp;is Assistant Chief Economist at RBC covering the team\u2019s medium-term economic analysis, including primary research areas of federal and provincial fiscal analysis, structural government policy, and demographics.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-wide wide\" \/>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n\n\n<ol class=\"wp-block-footnotes\"><li id=\"1ac42f51-39e0-4395-8e4a-04a9155cd4c8\">Current economic forecast as of April 13, 2026. WTI assumptions taken mostly from the forward curve. <a href=\"#1ac42f51-39e0-4395-8e4a-04a9155cd4c8-link\" aria-label=\"Jump to footnote reference 1\">\u21a9\ufe0e<\/a><\/li><li id=\"9bbc5edf-5b53-439e-a6c4-2636faec0326\">Aligned with RBC Economics\u2019 April 2026 nominal GDP forecast for those provinces that report fiscal sensitivities \u2013 Ontario, Quebec, Alberta, British Columbia, and Manitoba (collectively 90% of GDP). <a href=\"#9bbc5edf-5b53-439e-a6c4-2636faec0326-link\" aria-label=\"Jump to footnote reference 2\">\u21a9\ufe0e<\/a><\/li><\/ol>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"author":318,"featured_media":3111,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"advgb_blocks_editor_width":"","advgb_blocks_columns_visual_guide":"","footnotes":"[{\"id\":\"1ac42f51-39e0-4395-8e4a-04a9155cd4c8\",\"content\":\"Current economic forecast as of April 13, 2026. WTI assumptions taken mostly from the forward curve.\"},{\"id\":\"9bbc5edf-5b53-439e-a6c4-2636faec0326\",\"content\":\"Aligned with RBC Economics\\u2019 April 2026 nominal GDP forecast for those provinces that report fiscal sensitivities \\u2013 Ontario, Quebec, Alberta, British Columbia, and Manitoba (collectively 90% of GDP).\"}]"},"categories":[83,137,91],"tags":[],"rbc_econ_content_type":[],"class_list":["post-9962","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-canadian-analysis","category-other-fiscal-analysis","category-provincial-and-fiscal-outlooks"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.2 (Yoast SEO v27.2) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Fiscal roundup: Provinces deepen deficit track ahead of federal update - RBC Economics<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, 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