{"id":8510,"date":"2026-03-26T00:32:06","date_gmt":"2026-03-26T00:32:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/?p=8510"},"modified":"2026-04-03T00:23:19","modified_gmt":"2026-04-03T00:23:19","slug":"ontario-budget-2026-delayed-path-to-balance","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/canadian-analysis\/provincial-and-fiscal-outlooks\/provincial-budgets-and-economic-statements\/ontario-budget-2026-delayed-path-to-balance\/","title":{"rendered":"Ontario Budget 2026: Delayed path to balance"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<section class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-block  pos-rel\" style=\"border-radius:0px\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-inner-block  section-inner\" style=\"border-radius:0x\">\n<ul class=\"wp-block-rbc-list is-style-chevron-list\">\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>Budget 2026 expects a marginally lower deficit for the 2025-26 year that is about to end versus the fall update and prior budget &#8211; $12.3 billion (1.0% of GDP).<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>However, deficits for the next two years have been marked up to $13.8 billion in 2026-27 (1.1% of GDP) and $6.1 billion in 2027-28 (0.5% of GDP), while the path to balance has been delayed by 1 year to 2028-29.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>Included contingencies reflect the uncertain economic environment, but low outer-year expenses growth could come under pressure.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>Some significant new measures build on actions already taken.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>The debt-to-GDP ratio stabilizes at the end of the projection period in 2028-29, but not before trending upward for 3 consecutive years, the first tilt upwards since the pandemic.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>The province expects to continue to operate within 2 of 3 fiscal anchors throughout the forecast period.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>In our own economic outlook, Ontario\u2019s real GDP growth is bottom of the provincial table this year given its acute exposure to both the trade and population growth shocks. While the population shock is temporary and manufacturing show signs of stabilization under current tariffs, ongoing trade recalibrations leave its economy more vulnerable than many others.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Thus, there is particular urgency to advance the themes important for all provinces \u2013 address health\/affordability pressures while making fiscal room to support growth-oriented spending, tap into federal spending priorities, and leverage non-budgetary policy for growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Improved financial metrics in recent years has freed up more fiscal space in Canada\u2019s largest province, which Budget 2026 puts to some use. But with a relatively high debt load and abundant pressures, Ontario will need to plan carefully.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-wide wide\" \/>\n\n\n\n<div id=\"everviz-nPT_QMbW_\" class=\"everviz-nPT_QMbW_\" data-view=\"graph\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-wide wide\" \/>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading has-rbc-bright-blue-color has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-7974f975db73834a4794006929c5d486\" id=\"h-revenue-growth-to-be-weak-in-2026-27\">Revenue growth to be weak in 2026-27<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>Revenue levels are somewhat higher than in the fall, boosted by slightly better-than-expected nominal GDP growth. But year-over-year growth is expected to continue to be weak in 2026-27 &#8211; a reflection of economic challenges and marked down further by the cost of new tax expenditures (see measures below). In 2027-28, revenues growth recovers, growing above nominal GDP.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"mar-b pad-b-qtr mob-mar-b-hlf mob-pad-b-qtr\">Overall, the economic growth assumptions in Budget 2026 are in line with our own in 2026 but are somewhat more optimistic in 2027.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure data-wp-context=\"{&quot;imageId&quot;:&quot;69e3438183758&quot;}\" data-wp-interactive=\"core\/image\" data-wp-key=\"69e3438183758\" class=\"wp-block-image aligncenter size-full is-resized wp-lightbox-container\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2547\" height=\"1232\" data-wp-class--hide=\"state.isContentHidden\" data-wp-class--show=\"state.isContentVisible\" data-wp-init=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" data-wp-on--click=\"actions.showLightbox\" data-wp-on--load=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" data-wp-on-window--resize=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/03\/2-Economic-growth-projections-in-line-with-our-own-in-2026-somewhat-higher-in-2027.png?quality=80\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-8592\" style=\"width:500px\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/03\/2-Economic-growth-projections-in-line-with-our-own-in-2026-somewhat-higher-in-2027.png 2547w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/03\/2-Economic-growth-projections-in-line-with-our-own-in-2026-somewhat-higher-in-2027.png?resize=300,145 300w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/03\/2-Economic-growth-projections-in-line-with-our-own-in-2026-somewhat-higher-in-2027.png?resize=768,371 768w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/03\/2-Economic-growth-projections-in-line-with-our-own-in-2026-somewhat-higher-in-2027.png?resize=1024,495 1024w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/03\/2-Economic-growth-projections-in-line-with-our-own-in-2026-somewhat-higher-in-2027.png?resize=1536,743 1536w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/03\/2-Economic-growth-projections-in-line-with-our-own-in-2026-somewhat-higher-in-2027.png?resize=2048,991 2048w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2547px) 100vw, 2547px\" \/><button\n\t\t\tclass=\"lightbox-trigger\"\n\t\t\ttype=\"button\"\n\t\t\taria-haspopup=\"dialog\"\n\t\t\taria-label=\"Enlarge\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-init=\"callbacks.initTriggerButton\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-on--click=\"actions.showLightbox\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-style--right=\"state.imageButtonRight\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-style--top=\"state.imageButtonTop\"\n\t\t>\n\t\t\t<svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"12\" height=\"12\" fill=\"none\" viewBox=\"0 0 12 12\">\n\t\t\t\t<path fill=\"#fff\" d=\"M2 0a2 2 0 0 0-2 2v2h1.5V2a.5.5 0 0 1 .5-.5h2V0H2Zm2 10.5H2a.5.5 0 0 1-.5-.5V8H0v2a2 2 0 0 0 2 2h2v-1.5ZM8 12v-1.5h2a.5.5 0 0 0 .5-.5V8H12v2a2 2 0 0 1-2 2H8Zm2-12a2 2 0 0 1 2 2v2h-1.5V2a.5.5 0 0 0-.5-.5H8V0h2Z\" \/>\n\t\t\t<\/svg>\n\t\t<\/button><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading has-rbc-bright-blue-color has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-6fdcb5ebe3d1019ba95015f27a5b7a4e\" id=\"h-spending-growth-forecast-is-low\">Spending growth forecast is low<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>Expense levels have also shifted up since the fall, given 5% annual growth expected for 2025-26 (the year currently ending). This is above the 3.3% projection in the fall, due to higher spending in health, social services and justice, partially offset by the contingency fund.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"mar-b mob-mar-b-qtr pad-b-qtr mob-pad-b-qtr\">Projected spending growth is low for the remaining years at only 2.4% in 2026-27 and under 1.5% in the subsequent two years. Even adding the budgeted contingency would only lift growth to 3% and under 2.5%, respectively. The expected small decline in the population in Ontario this year will help keep near-term spending in bounds, but the outer years may need to be revisited over time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure data-wp-context=\"{&quot;imageId&quot;:&quot;69e343818405a&quot;}\" data-wp-interactive=\"core\/image\" data-wp-key=\"69e343818405a\" class=\"wp-block-image aligncenter size-full is-resized wp-lightbox-container\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2208\" height=\"2008\" data-wp-class--hide=\"state.isContentHidden\" data-wp-class--show=\"state.isContentVisible\" data-wp-init=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" data-wp-on--click=\"actions.showLightbox\" data-wp-on--load=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" data-wp-on-window--resize=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/03\/3-ON-consolidated-fiscal-plan-2026.png?quality=80\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-8588\" style=\"width:500px\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/03\/3-ON-consolidated-fiscal-plan-2026.png 2208w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/03\/3-ON-consolidated-fiscal-plan-2026.png?resize=300,273 300w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/03\/3-ON-consolidated-fiscal-plan-2026.png?resize=768,698 768w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/03\/3-ON-consolidated-fiscal-plan-2026.png?resize=1024,931 1024w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/03\/3-ON-consolidated-fiscal-plan-2026.png?resize=1536,1397 1536w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/03\/3-ON-consolidated-fiscal-plan-2026.png?resize=2048,1862 2048w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2208px) 100vw, 2208px\" \/><button\n\t\t\tclass=\"lightbox-trigger\"\n\t\t\ttype=\"button\"\n\t\t\taria-haspopup=\"dialog\"\n\t\t\taria-label=\"Enlarge\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-init=\"callbacks.initTriggerButton\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-on--click=\"actions.showLightbox\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-style--right=\"state.imageButtonRight\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-style--top=\"state.imageButtonTop\"\n\t\t>\n\t\t\t<svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"12\" height=\"12\" fill=\"none\" viewBox=\"0 0 12 12\">\n\t\t\t\t<path fill=\"#fff\" d=\"M2 0a2 2 0 0 0-2 2v2h1.5V2a.5.5 0 0 1 .5-.5h2V0H2Zm2 10.5H2a.5.5 0 0 1-.5-.5V8H0v2a2 2 0 0 0 2 2h2v-1.5ZM8 12v-1.5h2a.5.5 0 0 0 .5-.5V8H12v2a2 2 0 0 1-2 2H8Zm2-12a2 2 0 0 1 2 2v2h-1.5V2a.5.5 0 0 0-.5-.5H8V0h2Z\" \/>\n\t\t\t<\/svg>\n\t\t<\/button><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading has-rbc-bright-blue-color has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-a95f1301e594bc4fd2b2a4fab577a688\" id=\"h-new-measures-build-on-actions-already-taken\">New measures build on actions already taken<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>Budget 2026 includes a handful of new measures (significant ones below).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>These build on previous actions. Importantly, investment-oriented funds announced in recent years (e.g., Building Ontario Fund), non-budgetary policy from last year (e.g., single project review process, measures to advance free trade and labour mobility within Canada), and a significant energy and public infrastructure plan need time to be fully developed and bear fruit.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Aside from support for Toronto to host the headquarters of the (under development) Defence, Security and Resilience Bank, there are no explicit measures to plug into federal defence priorities, although these are still coming into view.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-rbc-bright-blue-color has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-3eecdbd02a4be2ed8f2ad1bdc65d2419\"><strong>Affordability<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-rbc-list is-style-chevron-list\">\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>$1.4 B for expanding HST relief on new build homes up to $1.5M for one year.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>$1.2 billion over 3 years for cutting the small business corporate tax rate.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-rbc-bright-blue-color has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-c66f39735278fa32ca7a01d46ecc2ffb\"><strong>Social services<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-rbc-list is-style-chevron-list\">\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>$6.4 billion over 4 years for the postsecondary sector (announced last month).<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>$1.1 billion new funding for hospitals.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-rbc-bright-blue-color has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-64acec4bf567232614f3c3258b767fd1\"><strong>Investment-focused spending<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-rbc-list is-style-chevron-list\">\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>$4 billion in new Protect Ontario Account Investment Fund to support \u2018economy-enabling investment opportunities\u2019 in high growth industries.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading has-rbc-bright-blue-color has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-3cf7c823d77fa402ed6c466985592a50\" id=\"h-stabilization-in-debt-ratio-at-end-of-projection-period\">Stabilization in debt ratio at end of projection period<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>Along with a path to balance by 2028-29, Budget 2026 foresees a stabilizing net debt-to-GDP ratio by this timeline after trending upward for 3 consecutive years, the first tilt upwards since the pandemic.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-wide wide\" \/>\n\n\n\n<div id=\"everviz-3ugl0uBfF\" class=\"everviz-3ugl0uBfF\" data-view=\"graph\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-wide wide\" \/>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"mar-b mob-mar-b-qtr pad-b-qtr mob-pad-b-qtr\">Despite the higher deficit path, the peak ratio is at a similar level as in the fall update, with upward revisions to the level of nominal GDP paving the way. Budget 2026 has the province continuing to meet 2 out of 3 of its fiscal anchors throughout the forecast period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure data-wp-context=\"{&quot;imageId&quot;:&quot;69e3438187bda&quot;}\" data-wp-interactive=\"core\/image\" data-wp-key=\"69e3438187bda\" class=\"wp-block-image aligncenter size-full is-resized wp-lightbox-container\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2208\" height=\"1246\" data-wp-class--hide=\"state.isContentHidden\" data-wp-class--show=\"state.isContentVisible\" data-wp-init=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" data-wp-on--click=\"actions.showLightbox\" data-wp-on--load=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" data-wp-on-window--resize=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/03\/3-Fiscal-anchors-ON-2026.png?quality=80\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-8615\" style=\"width:500px\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/03\/3-Fiscal-anchors-ON-2026.png 2208w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/03\/3-Fiscal-anchors-ON-2026.png?resize=300,169 300w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/03\/3-Fiscal-anchors-ON-2026.png?resize=768,433 768w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/03\/3-Fiscal-anchors-ON-2026.png?resize=1024,578 1024w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/03\/3-Fiscal-anchors-ON-2026.png?resize=1536,867 1536w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/03\/3-Fiscal-anchors-ON-2026.png?resize=2048,1156 2048w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2208px) 100vw, 2208px\" \/><button\n\t\t\tclass=\"lightbox-trigger\"\n\t\t\ttype=\"button\"\n\t\t\taria-haspopup=\"dialog\"\n\t\t\taria-label=\"Enlarge\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-init=\"callbacks.initTriggerButton\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-on--click=\"actions.showLightbox\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-style--right=\"state.imageButtonRight\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-style--top=\"state.imageButtonTop\"\n\t\t>\n\t\t\t<svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"12\" height=\"12\" fill=\"none\" viewBox=\"0 0 12 12\">\n\t\t\t\t<path fill=\"#fff\" d=\"M2 0a2 2 0 0 0-2 2v2h1.5V2a.5.5 0 0 1 .5-.5h2V0H2Zm2 10.5H2a.5.5 0 0 1-.5-.5V8H0v2a2 2 0 0 0 2 2h2v-1.5ZM8 12v-1.5h2a.5.5 0 0 0 .5-.5V8H12v2a2 2 0 0 1-2 2H8Zm2-12a2 2 0 0 1 2 2v2h-1.5V2a.5.5 0 0 0-.5-.5H8V0h2Z\" \/>\n\t\t\t<\/svg>\n\t\t<\/button><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"mar-b mar-t pad-b-qtr mob-pad-b-qtr pad-t-qtr mob-pad-t-qtr\">The budget does not explicitly mention additions to capital spending plans, but the $210 billion 10-year Capital Plan is $10 billion higher than in last fall\u2019s update. This may result from funding reprofiles, instead, but leads to an additional $14 billion in capital expenditures targeted for 2026-27 and 2027-28 versus the fall. Capital investments flow fully into net debt and borrowing requirements when outlays occur, but only the annual amortized portion of capital spending shows up in the budgetary balance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure data-wp-context=\"{&quot;imageId&quot;:&quot;69e3438188404&quot;}\" data-wp-interactive=\"core\/image\" data-wp-key=\"69e3438188404\" class=\"wp-block-image aligncenter size-full is-resized mar-b mob-mar-b-qtr mob-pad-b-qtr pad-b-hlf wp-lightbox-container\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2210\" height=\"1290\" data-wp-class--hide=\"state.isContentHidden\" data-wp-class--show=\"state.isContentVisible\" data-wp-init=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" data-wp-on--click=\"actions.showLightbox\" data-wp-on--load=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" data-wp-on-window--resize=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/03\/2-Financial-Requirement.png?quality=80\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-8611\" style=\"width:500px\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/03\/2-Financial-Requirement.png 2210w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/03\/2-Financial-Requirement.png?resize=300,175 300w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/03\/2-Financial-Requirement.png?resize=768,448 768w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/03\/2-Financial-Requirement.png?resize=1024,598 1024w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/03\/2-Financial-Requirement.png?resize=1536,897 1536w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/03\/2-Financial-Requirement.png?resize=2048,1195 2048w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2210px) 100vw, 2210px\" \/><button\n\t\t\tclass=\"lightbox-trigger\"\n\t\t\ttype=\"button\"\n\t\t\taria-haspopup=\"dialog\"\n\t\t\taria-label=\"Enlarge\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-init=\"callbacks.initTriggerButton\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-on--click=\"actions.showLightbox\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-style--right=\"state.imageButtonRight\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-style--top=\"state.imageButtonTop\"\n\t\t>\n\t\t\t<svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"12\" height=\"12\" fill=\"none\" viewBox=\"0 0 12 12\">\n\t\t\t\t<path fill=\"#fff\" d=\"M2 0a2 2 0 0 0-2 2v2h1.5V2a.5.5 0 0 1 .5-.5h2V0H2Zm2 10.5H2a.5.5 0 0 1-.5-.5V8H0v2a2 2 0 0 0 2 2h2v-1.5ZM8 12v-1.5h2a.5.5 0 0 0 .5-.5V8H12v2a2 2 0 0 1-2 2H8Zm2-12a2 2 0 0 1 2 2v2h-1.5V2a.5.5 0 0 0-.5-.5H8V0h2Z\" \/>\n\t\t\t<\/svg>\n\t\t<\/button><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-wide wide\" \/>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center\"><strong>About the author:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Cynthia Leach<\/strong><em>&nbsp;is Assistant Chief Economist at RBC covering the team\u2019s medium-term economic analysis, including primary research areas of federal and provincial fiscal analysis, structural government policy, and demographics.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-wide wide\" \/>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"author":318,"featured_media":8672,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"advgb_blocks_editor_width":"","advgb_blocks_columns_visual_guide":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[83,91,45],"tags":[105,115,26],"rbc_econ_content_type":[],"class_list":["post-8510","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-canadian-analysis","category-provincial-and-fiscal-outlooks","category-provincial-budgets-and-economic-statements","tag-budget","tag-canada","tag-ontario"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.2 (Yoast SEO v27.2) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Ontario Budget 2026: Delayed path to balance - RBC Economics<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/canadian-analysis\/provincial-and-fiscal-outlooks\/provincial-budgets-and-economic-statements\/ontario-budget-2026-delayed-path-to-balance\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Ontario Budget 2026: Delayed path to balance\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/canadian-analysis\/provincial-and-fiscal-outlooks\/provincial-budgets-and-economic-statements\/ontario-budget-2026-delayed-path-to-balance\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"RBC Economics\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2026-03-26T00:32:06+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2026-04-03T00:23:19+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/03\/Budg-ON-2026-BG.png?quality=80\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"3067\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"1850\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"viktoriyapanahova\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"viktoriyapanahova\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"5 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/canadian-analysis\/provincial-and-fiscal-outlooks\/provincial-budgets-and-economic-statements\/ontario-budget-2026-delayed-path-to-balance\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/canadian-analysis\/provincial-and-fiscal-outlooks\/provincial-budgets-and-economic-statements\/ontario-budget-2026-delayed-path-to-balance\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"viktoriyapanahova\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/#\/schema\/person\/109dd1bd3c90e818f8159356d46905ea\"},\"headline\":\"Ontario Budget 2026: Delayed path to balance\",\"datePublished\":\"2026-03-26T00:32:06+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2026-04-03T00:23:19+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/canadian-analysis\/provincial-and-fiscal-outlooks\/provincial-budgets-and-economic-statements\/ontario-budget-2026-delayed-path-to-balance\/\"},\"wordCount\":831,\"commentCount\":0,\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/canadian-analysis\/provincial-and-fiscal-outlooks\/provincial-budgets-and-economic-statements\/ontario-budget-2026-delayed-path-to-balance\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/03\/Budg-ON-2026-BG.png?quality=80\",\"keywords\":[\"Budget\",\"Canada\",\"Ontario\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Canadian Analysis\",\"Provincial and Fiscal Outlooks\",\"Provincial Budgets and Economic Statements\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/canadian-analysis\/provincial-and-fiscal-outlooks\/provincial-budgets-and-economic-statements\/ontario-budget-2026-delayed-path-to-balance\/#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/canadian-analysis\/provincial-and-fiscal-outlooks\/provincial-budgets-and-economic-statements\/ontario-budget-2026-delayed-path-to-balance\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/canadian-analysis\/provincial-and-fiscal-outlooks\/provincial-budgets-and-economic-statements\/ontario-budget-2026-delayed-path-to-balance\/\",\"name\":\"Ontario Budget 2026: Delayed path to balance - RBC Economics\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/canadian-analysis\/provincial-and-fiscal-outlooks\/provincial-budgets-and-economic-statements\/ontario-budget-2026-delayed-path-to-balance\/#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/canadian-analysis\/provincial-and-fiscal-outlooks\/provincial-budgets-and-economic-statements\/ontario-budget-2026-delayed-path-to-balance\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/03\/Budg-ON-2026-BG.png?quality=80\",\"datePublished\":\"2026-03-26T00:32:06+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2026-04-03T00:23:19+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/#\/schema\/person\/109dd1bd3c90e818f8159356d46905ea\"},\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/canadian-analysis\/provincial-and-fiscal-outlooks\/provincial-budgets-and-economic-statements\/ontario-budget-2026-delayed-path-to-balance\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/canadian-analysis\/provincial-and-fiscal-outlooks\/provincial-budgets-and-economic-statements\/ontario-budget-2026-delayed-path-to-balance\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/canadian-analysis\/provincial-and-fiscal-outlooks\/provincial-budgets-and-economic-statements\/ontario-budget-2026-delayed-path-to-balance\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/03\/Budg-ON-2026-BG.png?quality=80\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/03\/Budg-ON-2026-BG.png?quality=80\",\"width\":3067,\"height\":1850},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/canadian-analysis\/provincial-and-fiscal-outlooks\/provincial-budgets-and-economic-statements\/ontario-budget-2026-delayed-path-to-balance\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Ontario Budget 2026: Delayed path to balance\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/\",\"name\":\"RBC Economics\",\"description\":\"\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":{\"@type\":\"PropertyValueSpecification\",\"valueRequired\":true,\"valueName\":\"search_term_string\"}}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/#\/schema\/person\/109dd1bd3c90e818f8159356d46905ea\",\"name\":\"viktoriyapanahova\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/885bcff339d33080f070ec9cbe77fcf3007653305ae17de7827e19af43e61913?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/885bcff339d33080f070ec9cbe77fcf3007653305ae17de7827e19af43e61913?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/885bcff339d33080f070ec9cbe77fcf3007653305ae17de7827e19af43e61913?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"caption\":\"viktoriyapanahova\"},\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/author\/viktoriyapanahova\/\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO Premium plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Ontario Budget 2026: Delayed path to balance - RBC Economics","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/canadian-analysis\/provincial-and-fiscal-outlooks\/provincial-budgets-and-economic-statements\/ontario-budget-2026-delayed-path-to-balance\/","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"Ontario Budget 2026: Delayed path to balance","og_url":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/canadian-analysis\/provincial-and-fiscal-outlooks\/provincial-budgets-and-economic-statements\/ontario-budget-2026-delayed-path-to-balance\/","og_site_name":"RBC Economics","article_published_time":"2026-03-26T00:32:06+00:00","article_modified_time":"2026-04-03T00:23:19+00:00","og_image":[{"width":3067,"height":1850,"url":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/03\/Budg-ON-2026-BG.png?quality=80","type":"image\/png"}],"author":"viktoriyapanahova","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"viktoriyapanahova","Est. reading time":"5 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"Article","@id":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/canadian-analysis\/provincial-and-fiscal-outlooks\/provincial-budgets-and-economic-statements\/ontario-budget-2026-delayed-path-to-balance\/#article","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/canadian-analysis\/provincial-and-fiscal-outlooks\/provincial-budgets-and-economic-statements\/ontario-budget-2026-delayed-path-to-balance\/"},"author":{"name":"viktoriyapanahova","@id":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/#\/schema\/person\/109dd1bd3c90e818f8159356d46905ea"},"headline":"Ontario Budget 2026: Delayed path to balance","datePublished":"2026-03-26T00:32:06+00:00","dateModified":"2026-04-03T00:23:19+00:00","mainEntityOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/canadian-analysis\/provincial-and-fiscal-outlooks\/provincial-budgets-and-economic-statements\/ontario-budget-2026-delayed-path-to-balance\/"},"wordCount":831,"commentCount":0,"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/canadian-analysis\/provincial-and-fiscal-outlooks\/provincial-budgets-and-economic-statements\/ontario-budget-2026-delayed-path-to-balance\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/03\/Budg-ON-2026-BG.png?quality=80","keywords":["Budget","Canada","Ontario"],"articleSection":["Canadian Analysis","Provincial and Fiscal Outlooks","Provincial Budgets and Economic Statements"],"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"CommentAction","name":"Comment","target":["https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/canadian-analysis\/provincial-and-fiscal-outlooks\/provincial-budgets-and-economic-statements\/ontario-budget-2026-delayed-path-to-balance\/#respond"]}]},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/canadian-analysis\/provincial-and-fiscal-outlooks\/provincial-budgets-and-economic-statements\/ontario-budget-2026-delayed-path-to-balance\/","url":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/canadian-analysis\/provincial-and-fiscal-outlooks\/provincial-budgets-and-economic-statements\/ontario-budget-2026-delayed-path-to-balance\/","name":"Ontario Budget 2026: Delayed path to balance - RBC Economics","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/#website"},"primaryImageOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/canadian-analysis\/provincial-and-fiscal-outlooks\/provincial-budgets-and-economic-statements\/ontario-budget-2026-delayed-path-to-balance\/#primaryimage"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/canadian-analysis\/provincial-and-fiscal-outlooks\/provincial-budgets-and-economic-statements\/ontario-budget-2026-delayed-path-to-balance\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/03\/Budg-ON-2026-BG.png?quality=80","datePublished":"2026-03-26T00:32:06+00:00","dateModified":"2026-04-03T00:23:19+00:00","author":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/#\/schema\/person\/109dd1bd3c90e818f8159356d46905ea"},"breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/canadian-analysis\/provincial-and-fiscal-outlooks\/provincial-budgets-and-economic-statements\/ontario-budget-2026-delayed-path-to-balance\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/canadian-analysis\/provincial-and-fiscal-outlooks\/provincial-budgets-and-economic-statements\/ontario-budget-2026-delayed-path-to-balance\/"]}]},{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/canadian-analysis\/provincial-and-fiscal-outlooks\/provincial-budgets-and-economic-statements\/ontario-budget-2026-delayed-path-to-balance\/#primaryimage","url":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/03\/Budg-ON-2026-BG.png?quality=80","contentUrl":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/03\/Budg-ON-2026-BG.png?quality=80","width":3067,"height":1850},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/canadian-analysis\/provincial-and-fiscal-outlooks\/provincial-budgets-and-economic-statements\/ontario-budget-2026-delayed-path-to-balance\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"Ontario Budget 2026: Delayed path to balance"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/#website","url":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/","name":"RBC Economics","description":"","potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":{"@type":"PropertyValueSpecification","valueRequired":true,"valueName":"search_term_string"}}],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/#\/schema\/person\/109dd1bd3c90e818f8159356d46905ea","name":"viktoriyapanahova","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/885bcff339d33080f070ec9cbe77fcf3007653305ae17de7827e19af43e61913?s=96&d=mm&r=g","url":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/885bcff339d33080f070ec9cbe77fcf3007653305ae17de7827e19af43e61913?s=96&d=mm&r=g","contentUrl":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/885bcff339d33080f070ec9cbe77fcf3007653305ae17de7827e19af43e61913?s=96&d=mm&r=g","caption":"viktoriyapanahova"},"url":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/author\/viktoriyapanahova\/"}]}},"author_meta":{"display_name":"viktoriyapanahova","author_link":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/author\/viktoriyapanahova\/"},"featured_img":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/03\/Budg-ON-2026-BG.png?quality=80&w=300","jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/03\/Budg-ON-2026-BG.png?quality=80","coauthors":[],"tax_additional":{"categories":{"linked":["<a href=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/category\/canadian-analysis\/\" class=\"advgb-post-tax-term\">Canadian Analysis<\/a>","<a href=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/category\/canadian-analysis\/provincial-and-fiscal-outlooks\/\" class=\"advgb-post-tax-term\">Provincial and Fiscal Outlooks<\/a>","<a href=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/category\/canadian-analysis\/provincial-and-fiscal-outlooks\/provincial-budgets-and-economic-statements\/\" class=\"advgb-post-tax-term\">Provincial Budgets and Economic Statements<\/a>"],"unlinked":["<span class=\"advgb-post-tax-term\">Canadian Analysis<\/span>","<span class=\"advgb-post-tax-term\">Provincial and Fiscal Outlooks<\/span>","<span class=\"advgb-post-tax-term\">Provincial Budgets and Economic Statements<\/span>"]},"tags":{"linked":["<a href=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/category\/canadian-analysis\/provincial-and-fiscal-outlooks\/provincial-budgets-and-economic-statements\/\" class=\"advgb-post-tax-term\">Budget<\/a>","<a href=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/category\/canadian-analysis\/provincial-and-fiscal-outlooks\/provincial-budgets-and-economic-statements\/\" class=\"advgb-post-tax-term\">Canada<\/a>","<a href=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/category\/canadian-analysis\/provincial-and-fiscal-outlooks\/provincial-budgets-and-economic-statements\/\" class=\"advgb-post-tax-term\">Ontario<\/a>"],"unlinked":["<span class=\"advgb-post-tax-term\">Budget<\/span>","<span class=\"advgb-post-tax-term\">Canada<\/span>","<span class=\"advgb-post-tax-term\">Ontario<\/span>"]}},"comment_count":"0","relative_dates":{"created":"Posted 3 weeks ago","modified":"Updated 2 weeks ago"},"absolute_dates":{"created":"Posted on March 26, 2026","modified":"Updated on April 3, 2026"},"absolute_dates_time":{"created":"Posted on March 26, 2026 12:32 am","modified":"Updated on April 3, 2026 12:23 am"},"featured_img_caption":"","series_order":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8510","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/318"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=8510"}],"version-history":[{"count":56,"href":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8510\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":8635,"href":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8510\/revisions\/8635"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/8672"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=8510"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=8510"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=8510"},{"taxonomy":"rbc_econ_content_type","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/rbc_econ_content_type?post=8510"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}