{"id":8448,"date":"2026-03-19T18:25:14","date_gmt":"2026-03-19T18:25:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/?p=8448"},"modified":"2026-03-23T19:53:10","modified_gmt":"2026-03-23T19:53:10","slug":"inflation-expectations-in-focus-as-fed-navigates-shocks","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/us-week-ahead\/inflation-expectations-in-focus-as-fed-navigates-shocks\/","title":{"rendered":"Inflation expectations in focus as Fed navigates shocks"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<section class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-block  pos-rel\" style=\"border-radius:0px\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-inner-block  section-inner\" style=\"border-radius:0x\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns pad-t-hlf mob-pad-t-hlf pad-b-hlf mob-pad-b-hlf pad-l-hlf mob-pad-l-hlf pad-r-hlf mob-pad-r-hlf has-rbc-bright-blue-tint-4-background-color has-background is-layout-flex wp-container-core-columns-is-layout-65eef5bf wp-block-columns-is-layout-flex\" style=\"border-style:none;border-width:0px;border-radius:5px\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-column pad-b-hlf mob-pad-b-hlf pad-t-hlf mob-pad-t-hlf is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\" style=\"flex-basis:98%\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-media-text is-stacked-on-mobile is-vertically-aligned-center mar-l-hlf pad-l-hlf\" style=\"grid-template-columns:22% auto\"><figure class=\"wp-block-media-text__media\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1767\" height=\"1632\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2025\/12\/Icon-calend-dec-19-25.png?quality=80&amp;w=1024\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-6212 size-full\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2025\/12\/Icon-calend-dec-19-25.png 1767w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2025\/12\/Icon-calend-dec-19-25.png?resize=300,277 300w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2025\/12\/Icon-calend-dec-19-25.png?resize=768,709 768w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2025\/12\/Icon-calend-dec-19-25.png?resize=1024,946 1024w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2025\/12\/Icon-calend-dec-19-25.png?resize=1536,1419 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1767px) 100vw, 1767px\" \/><\/figure><div class=\"wp-block-media-text__content\">\n<p id=\"Intro\">Next week we get quite a bit of soft data \u2013 we have several regional Fed surveys on deck (Chicago, Philadelphia, Richmond, and Kansas City) alongside the final University of Michigan Survey of Consumer sentiment data for the month of March. We expect to see significant revisions to inflation expectations in U-Mich because about half of the sample was collected before the start of the war in Iran. <\/p>\n<\/div><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>The March preliminary release is based on survey responses collected between February 17<sup>th<\/sup> and March 9<sup>th<\/sup>. According to U-Mich, about half of the preliminary sample of respondents were interviewed prior to the start of the US military conflict in Iran (which commenced on February 28<sup>th<\/sup>). We will be watching all surveys for important clues about inflation expectations in the face of both tariff-driven inflation pressures and the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/us-analysis\/us-featured-analysis\/oil-price-shock-higher-us-inflation-could-weigh-on-consumers\/\" target=\"_blank\" data-dig-id=\"LP-U.S.WeekAhead-8448-406efd3b\" data-dig-category=\"LP-U.S.WeekAhead\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-label=\"oil price shock\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" class=\"rbc-link-format\">oil price shock<\/a>. The 1-year inflation expectations are most likely to shift meaningfully higher from the preliminary release.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>We expect that both the Richmond Fed and Kansas City Fed manufacturing indices will continue to highlight rising prices paid alongside the Philadelphia Fed nonmanufacturing survey. &nbsp;PPI has accelerated the last 4 months, driven by price pressures in transportation and warehousing and wholesaler margins. Those price pressures are being passed through the supply chain, and signal intermediate inputs are becoming more expensive, increasing costs for manufacturers &nbsp;The Kansas City Fed sample is collected over a period of five days from the third Wednesday of the month to the following Monday. The short and recent data collection window means that we can be confident that we are getting real-time perceptions. Both the Richmond Fed manufacturing survey and Philly nonmanufacturing surveys run over slightly longer horizons but still took place during the Iran conflict. Despite the concerns we expect to see in the survey data, <strong>we forecast initial jobless claims will hold relatively steady at 207k for the week of March 21<sup>st<\/sup><\/strong> as the uncertainty surrounding current events means the low firing environment is likely to continue.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>We have written about a relatively <a href=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/us-analysis\/us-data-flashes\/fomc-recap-fed-remains-on-pause-with-uncertain-path-ahead\/\" target=\"_blank\" data-dig-id=\"LP-U.S.WeekAhead-8448-95012631\" data-dig-category=\"LP-U.S.WeekAhead\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-label=\"new dynamic that central banks are facing\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" class=\"rbc-link-format\">new dynamic that central banks are facing<\/a> globally: central banks are no longer driving the business cycle and are instead reacting to external shocks. Since monetary policy is not the correct tool to address an oil price shock nor tariffs, the appropriate response would be for the Fed to look through these shocks. However, when asked about credibility concerns surrounding looking through both shocks at the March press conference, Chair Powell acknowledged that inflation expectations are top of mind for the Fed, \u201c<em>You worry that that is the kind of thing that can, you know, cause trouble for inflation expectations. And so, we worry a lot about that. You know, we are strongly committed to doing what it takes to keep inflation expectations anchored at 2%.\u201d <\/em>The challenge that the Fed will face is that the current shock is impacting prices for essentials like gasoline and food, which drastically weigh on consumer perceptions of inflation because they are purchased more frequently, and the price changes are highly visible to consumers. A prolonged conflict risks broadening out the inflationary pressures into other sectors of the economy.<a id=\"_msocom_1\"><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure data-wp-context=\"{&quot;imageId&quot;:&quot;69da041df0b6e&quot;}\" data-wp-interactive=\"core\/image\" data-wp-key=\"69da041df0b6e\" class=\"wp-block-image size-full wp-lightbox-container\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"700\" height=\"600\" data-wp-class--hide=\"state.isContentHidden\" data-wp-class--show=\"state.isContentVisible\" data-wp-init=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" data-wp-on--click=\"actions.showLightbox\" data-wp-on--load=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" data-wp-on-window--resize=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/03\/US-C-umich-consumer-inflation-expectations-gasoline-prices.png?quality=80\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-8451\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/03\/US-C-umich-consumer-inflation-expectations-gasoline-prices.png 700w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/03\/US-C-umich-consumer-inflation-expectations-gasoline-prices.png?resize=300,257 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 700px) 100vw, 700px\" \/><button\n\t\t\tclass=\"lightbox-trigger\"\n\t\t\ttype=\"button\"\n\t\t\taria-haspopup=\"dialog\"\n\t\t\taria-label=\"Enlarge\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-init=\"callbacks.initTriggerButton\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-on--click=\"actions.showLightbox\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-style--right=\"state.imageButtonRight\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-style--top=\"state.imageButtonTop\"\n\t\t>\n\t\t\t<svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"12\" height=\"12\" fill=\"none\" viewBox=\"0 0 12 12\">\n\t\t\t\t<path fill=\"#fff\" d=\"M2 0a2 2 0 0 0-2 2v2h1.5V2a.5.5 0 0 1 .5-.5h2V0H2Zm2 10.5H2a.5.5 0 0 1-.5-.5V8H0v2a2 2 0 0 0 2 2h2v-1.5ZM8 12v-1.5h2a.5.5 0 0 0 .5-.5V8H12v2a2 2 0 0 1-2 2H8Zm2-12a2 2 0 0 1 2 2v2h-1.5V2a.5.5 0 0 0-.5-.5H8V0h2Z\" \/>\n\t\t\t<\/svg>\n\t\t<\/button><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure data-wp-context=\"{&quot;imageId&quot;:&quot;69da041df15a6&quot;}\" data-wp-interactive=\"core\/image\" data-wp-key=\"69da041df15a6\" class=\"wp-block-image size-full wp-lightbox-container\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"5544\" height=\"1759\" data-wp-class--hide=\"state.isContentHidden\" data-wp-class--show=\"state.isContentVisible\" data-wp-init=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" data-wp-on--click=\"actions.showLightbox\" data-wp-on--load=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" data-wp-on-window--resize=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/03\/US-WA-Mar-19-2026.png?quality=80\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-8476\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/03\/US-WA-Mar-19-2026.png 5544w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/03\/US-WA-Mar-19-2026.png?resize=300,95 300w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/03\/US-WA-Mar-19-2026.png?resize=768,244 768w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/03\/US-WA-Mar-19-2026.png?resize=1024,325 1024w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/03\/US-WA-Mar-19-2026.png?resize=1536,487 1536w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/03\/US-WA-Mar-19-2026.png?resize=2048,650 2048w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 5544px) 100vw, 5544px\" \/><button\n\t\t\tclass=\"lightbox-trigger\"\n\t\t\ttype=\"button\"\n\t\t\taria-haspopup=\"dialog\"\n\t\t\taria-label=\"Enlarge\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-init=\"callbacks.initTriggerButton\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-on--click=\"actions.showLightbox\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-style--right=\"state.imageButtonRight\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-style--top=\"state.imageButtonTop\"\n\t\t>\n\t\t\t<svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"12\" height=\"12\" fill=\"none\" viewBox=\"0 0 12 12\">\n\t\t\t\t<path fill=\"#fff\" d=\"M2 0a2 2 0 0 0-2 2v2h1.5V2a.5.5 0 0 1 .5-.5h2V0H2Zm2 10.5H2a.5.5 0 0 1-.5-.5V8H0v2a2 2 0 0 0 2 2h2v-1.5ZM8 12v-1.5h2a.5.5 0 0 0 .5-.5V8H12v2a2 2 0 0 1-2 2H8Zm2-12a2 2 0 0 1 2 2v2h-1.5V2a.5.5 0 0 0-.5-.5H8V0h2Z\" \/>\n\t\t\t<\/svg>\n\t\t<\/button><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-wide wide\" \/>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center\"><strong>About the Authors<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em><strong>Mike Reid<\/strong>&nbsp;is Head of U.S. Economics at RBC. He is responsible for generating RBC\u2019s U.S. economic outlook, providing commentary on macro indicators, and producing written analysis around the economic backdrop.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em><strong>Carrie Freestone<\/strong>&nbsp;is a Senior US Economist&nbsp; at RBC Capital Markets. Carrie is responsible for projecting key US indicators including GDP, employment, consumer spending and inflation for the US. She also contributes to commentary surrounding the US economic backdrop which she delivers to clients through publications, presentations, and the media.&nbsp;<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em><strong>Imri Haggin<\/strong>&nbsp;is an Economist at RBC Capital Markets, where he focuses on thematic research. His prior work has centered on consumer credit dynamics and treasury modeling, with an emphasis on leveraging data to understand behavior.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-wide wide\" \/>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"author":318,"featured_media":4524,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"advgb_blocks_editor_width":"","advgb_blocks_columns_visual_guide":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[86],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-8448","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-us-week-ahead"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.2 (Yoast SEO v27.2) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Inflation expectations in focus as Fed navigates shocks - RBC 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