{"id":8405,"date":"2026-03-18T01:12:00","date_gmt":"2026-03-18T01:12:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/?p=8405"},"modified":"2026-04-03T00:21:54","modified_gmt":"2026-04-03T00:21:54","slug":"quebec-budget-2026-showing-restraint-in-an-election-year","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/canadian-analysis\/provincial-and-fiscal-outlooks\/provincial-budgets-and-economic-statements\/quebec-budget-2026-showing-restraint-in-an-election-year\/","title":{"rendered":"Quebec Budget 2026: Showing restraint in an election year"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<section class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-block  pos-rel\" style=\"border-radius:0px\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-inner-block  section-inner\" style=\"border-radius:0x\">\n<ul class=\"wp-block-rbc-list is-style-chevron-list\">\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>Government plans to keep a lid on program spending growth this year and in the next four.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>This will help reduce deficit projections slightly from $9.9 billion (1.5% of GDP) in 2025-26 to $8.6 billion (1.3% of GDP) in 2026-27 after deposits to the Generations Fund.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>Budget balance is still expected by 2029-30 (as legally required) though $5 billion in new revenue or savings still need to be found.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>The province\u2019s debt load is now projected to largely stabilize in the next three years before easing gradually thereafter.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>Overall, this is a budget that stresses restraint and commitment to fiscal sustainability.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-wide wide\" \/>\n\n\n\n<div id=\"everviz-EEy7-gcMO\" class=\"everviz-EEy7-gcMO\" data-view=\"graph\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-wide wide\" \/>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading has-rbc-bright-blue-color has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-a271a32511da5ea4c3afa3cf1fa099a0\" id=\"h-not-your-ordinary-election-budget\">Not your ordinary election budget<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>Budget 2026 comes at an interesting time. It\u2019s being released just six months before a general provincial election and less than a month before a new Coalition Avenir Qu\u00e9bec leader (and premier) takes over from Premier Fran\u00e7ois Legault who will resign in April. It\u2019s also coming out just weeks after a new external economic shock (soaring oil prices) threatens a fragile provincial economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Yet, Quebec Finance Minister \u00c9ric Girard resisted handing out pre-election goodies\u2014recall his government earlier sent $500 cheques to 6.4 million Quebecers as part of Budget 2022 just before the last provincial election.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This time he focused on further course-correcting the provincial fiscal plan which had previously slipped amid soaring program costs and tax cuts designed to cushion higher cost of living.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading has-rbc-bright-blue-color has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-d189421810fc788d3fcaa3325985bf81\" id=\"h-a-lighter-touch-on-new-measures\">A lighter touch on new measures<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>Budget 2026 does include several new measures, though at a total of $9.6 billion over six years these are relatively light from a cost perspective. Budget 2025, by comparison, added $12 billion to expenditures over five years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The new measures fall under three umbrellas:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-rbc-list is-style-chevron-list\">\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>Speeding up Quebec\u2019s economic transformation ($1.7 billion over five years)<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>Adding support to the government\u2019s primary missions ($4.3 billion)<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>Helping Quebecers and communities ($3.6 billion)<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>To help businesses adapt to a more challenging economic environment, the government will inject $410 million over five years to support investment in promising sectors and $283 million to promote innovation and improve competitiveness. It will also support small and medium size businesses\u2014including those in the forestry sector\u2014to the tune of $581 million.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Healthcare and social services ($2 billion over five years) will receive the lion\u2019s share of new spending on the government\u2019s primary missions. Education is getting an additional $639 million, and justice and public safety $1.1 billion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Finally, Budget 2026 offers a series of measures to help Quebecers deal with higher cost of living (including daycare), fight homelessness, improve access housing and help the most vulnerable that total $2.4 billion over five years. There\u2019s also an additional $1 billion toward supporting communities. This includes funding to maintain local infrastructures and support climate-resilience investment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>These measures are generally targeted and front-loaded\u2014impacting primarily the first two years of the fiscal plan.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure data-wp-context=\"{&quot;imageId&quot;:&quot;69d9480dca8da&quot;}\" data-wp-interactive=\"core\/image\" data-wp-key=\"69d9480dca8da\" class=\"wp-block-image size-full wp-lightbox-container\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"5287\" height=\"5543\" data-wp-class--hide=\"state.isContentHidden\" data-wp-class--show=\"state.isContentVisible\" data-wp-init=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" data-wp-on--click=\"actions.showLightbox\" data-wp-on--load=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" data-wp-on-window--resize=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/03\/QC-consolidated-fiscal-plan-2026-3.png?quality=80\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-8419\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/03\/QC-consolidated-fiscal-plan-2026-3.png 5287w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/03\/QC-consolidated-fiscal-plan-2026-3.png?resize=286,300 286w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/03\/QC-consolidated-fiscal-plan-2026-3.png?resize=768,805 768w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/03\/QC-consolidated-fiscal-plan-2026-3.png?resize=977,1024 977w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/03\/QC-consolidated-fiscal-plan-2026-3.png?resize=1465,1536 1465w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/03\/QC-consolidated-fiscal-plan-2026-3.png?resize=1953,2048 1953w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 5287px) 100vw, 5287px\" \/><button\n\t\t\tclass=\"lightbox-trigger\"\n\t\t\ttype=\"button\"\n\t\t\taria-haspopup=\"dialog\"\n\t\t\taria-label=\"Enlarge\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-init=\"callbacks.initTriggerButton\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-on--click=\"actions.showLightbox\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-style--right=\"state.imageButtonRight\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-style--top=\"state.imageButtonTop\"\n\t\t>\n\t\t\t<svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"12\" height=\"12\" fill=\"none\" viewBox=\"0 0 12 12\">\n\t\t\t\t<path fill=\"#fff\" d=\"M2 0a2 2 0 0 0-2 2v2h1.5V2a.5.5 0 0 1 .5-.5h2V0H2Zm2 10.5H2a.5.5 0 0 1-.5-.5V8H0v2a2 2 0 0 0 2 2h2v-1.5ZM8 12v-1.5h2a.5.5 0 0 0 .5-.5V8H12v2a2 2 0 0 1-2 2H8Zm2-12a2 2 0 0 1 2 2v2h-1.5V2a.5.5 0 0 0-.5-.5H8V0h2Z\" \/>\n\t\t\t<\/svg>\n\t\t<\/button><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading has-rbc-bright-blue-color has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-51529bd419307762e3c60b98717e3e61\" id=\"h-slow-expenditure-growth\">Slow expenditure growth\u2026<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>Overall, the government\u2019s five-year expenditures profile shows restraint, growing at an average rate of 2.0% (or roughly zero on inflation-adjusted terms). That\u2019s despite debt service costs increasing at close to 4% per year over that period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>For 2026-27, program expenditures are even forecast to grow just 1.6%, which would be the slowest rate since 2015-16 when the province was in the midst of difficult budget austerity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading has-rbc-bright-blue-color has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-d146daf337ba3ec785b8e880298e67c6\" id=\"h-and-comparatively-faster-tracking-revenues\">\u2026and comparatively faster-tracking revenues\u2026<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>Meanwhile, the government is counting on sustained\u2014albeit slowing\u2014nominal economic growth and increased federal transfers to drive up total revenues by 3.7% in 2026-27, and an average of 3.2% over the next five years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure data-wp-context=\"{&quot;imageId&quot;:&quot;69d9480dcb286&quot;}\" data-wp-interactive=\"core\/image\" data-wp-key=\"69d9480dcb286\" class=\"wp-block-image size-full wp-lightbox-container\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"3796\" height=\"2610\" data-wp-class--hide=\"state.isContentHidden\" data-wp-class--show=\"state.isContentVisible\" data-wp-init=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" data-wp-on--click=\"actions.showLightbox\" data-wp-on--load=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" data-wp-on-window--resize=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/03\/Economic-growth-assumptions-QC-2026.png?quality=80\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-8417\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/03\/Economic-growth-assumptions-QC-2026.png 3796w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/03\/Economic-growth-assumptions-QC-2026.png?resize=300,206 300w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/03\/Economic-growth-assumptions-QC-2026.png?resize=768,528 768w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/03\/Economic-growth-assumptions-QC-2026.png?resize=1024,704 1024w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/03\/Economic-growth-assumptions-QC-2026.png?resize=1536,1056 1536w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/03\/Economic-growth-assumptions-QC-2026.png?resize=2048,1408 2048w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 3796px) 100vw, 3796px\" \/><button\n\t\t\tclass=\"lightbox-trigger\"\n\t\t\ttype=\"button\"\n\t\t\taria-haspopup=\"dialog\"\n\t\t\taria-label=\"Enlarge\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-init=\"callbacks.initTriggerButton\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-on--click=\"actions.showLightbox\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-style--right=\"state.imageButtonRight\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-style--top=\"state.imageButtonTop\"\n\t\t>\n\t\t\t<svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"12\" height=\"12\" fill=\"none\" viewBox=\"0 0 12 12\">\n\t\t\t\t<path fill=\"#fff\" d=\"M2 0a2 2 0 0 0-2 2v2h1.5V2a.5.5 0 0 1 .5-.5h2V0H2Zm2 10.5H2a.5.5 0 0 1-.5-.5V8H0v2a2 2 0 0 0 2 2h2v-1.5ZM8 12v-1.5h2a.5.5 0 0 0 .5-.5V8H12v2a2 2 0 0 1-2 2H8Zm2-12a2 2 0 0 1 2 2v2h-1.5V2a.5.5 0 0 0-.5-.5H8V0h2Z\" \/>\n\t\t\t<\/svg>\n\t\t<\/button><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading has-rbc-bright-blue-color has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-adc0d334c1e828a025cb002cbf61e74c\" id=\"h-will-shrink-the-deficit\">\u2026will shrink the deficit<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>These revenue and expenditure trajectories will result in the government deficit shrinking from a downwardly revised $9.9 billion in 2025-26 (from $12.4 billion in the fall update) to $8.6 billion in 2026-27 and $5.7 billion in 2027-28 after deposits to the Generations Fund.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The government remains on track to balancing its books by 2029-30, as required by law.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-wide wide\" \/>\n\n\n\n<div id=\"everviz-dP6vYH5ETG\" class=\"everviz-dP6vYH5ETG\" data-view=\"graph\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-wide wide\" \/>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading has-rbc-bright-blue-color has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-eacb2ff8e3dc3427a519c1b1f74d5e37\" id=\"h-debt-load-to-stabilize-at-improved-levels\">Debt load to stabilize at improved levels<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>A slightly lower deficit profile in the next two years and upwardly revised nominal economic growth assumptions will help stabilize the province\u2019s debt load.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Budget 2026 projects Quebec\u2019s net debt-to-GDP ratio to remain little changed in the next three years, edging marginally higher from 38.8% at the end of 2025-26 to 38.9% in 2026-27 and 39.3% in 2027-28 before easing through the remainder of the fiscal plan to a terminal value of 36.9%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This profile is an improvement from the previous profile which peaked at a higher 41.3% in 2027-28 before ending at a 39.3% terminal value.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Budget 2026 therefore places Quebec closer to its fiscal anchors of 35.5% by 2032-33 and 32.5% by 2037-38 for its net debt-to-GDP ratio.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading has-rbc-bright-blue-color has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-9a67b73c52412439ae6bd84a7a125150\" id=\"h-executing-the-plan-will-take-resolve\">Executing the plan will take resolve<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>Having an almost complete plan to return to balance and stabilize its indebtedness to a more sustainable level puts Quebec ahead of many other provinces that are still figuring out their course of action. Part of it is because Quebec has been confronted with fiscal issues\u2014including a heavy debt load\u2014for a long time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But having a plan and executing it are two very different things. Carrying out significant spending restraint year after year is especially hard and will take resolve.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>And, with elections around the corner, it\u2019s uncertain whether Minister Girard and his government will in fact be the ones holding the purse strings come next budget.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-wide wide\" \/>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center\"><strong>About the author:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Robert Hogue<\/strong><em>&nbsp;is the Assistant Chief Economist responsible for providing analysis and forecasts on the Canadian housing market and provincial economies.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-wide wide\" \/>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"author":318,"featured_media":8422,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"advgb_blocks_editor_width":"","advgb_blocks_columns_visual_guide":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[83,91,45],"tags":[105,115,27],"class_list":["post-8405","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-canadian-analysis","category-provincial-and-fiscal-outlooks","category-provincial-budgets-and-economic-statements","tag-budget","tag-canada","tag-quebec"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.2 (Yoast SEO v27.2) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Quebec Budget 2026: Showing restraint in an election year - RBC Economics<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, 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