{"id":8375,"date":"2026-03-18T16:57:51","date_gmt":"2026-03-18T16:57:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/?p=8375"},"modified":"2026-04-03T00:20:28","modified_gmt":"2026-04-03T00:20:28","slug":"bank-of-canada-meeting-recap-one-supply-shock-after-another","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/canadian-analysis\/data-flashes\/bank-of-canada-meeting-recap-one-supply-shock-after-another\/","title":{"rendered":"Bank of Canada meeting recap: One supply shock after another"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<section class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-block  pos-rel\" style=\"border-radius:0px\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-inner-block  section-inner\" style=\"border-radius:0x\">\n<p>The Bank of Canada held the overnight rate at 2.25% at its second meeting of 2026, and conveyed three key messages through its interest rate announcement and press conference opening statement.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>First, there are downside risks to economic growth in early 2026 relative to the BoC&#8217;s January forecast. Second, it is too early to assess the overall growth impact from the Middle East conflict and elevated oil prices. Third, energy prices will rise immediately and be looked through by the central bank, but only if the increase remains contained\u2014not if it broadens and persists.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>With recent CPI readings showing persistent easing in underlying price pressure (core BoC measures averaged 1% on a three-month annualized basis in February), the BoC has plenty of room to wait for additional clarity on the impact of recent conflict rather than rushing to respond.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading has-rbc-bright-blue-color has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-4a415d91953f7ea535973399025a7c00\" id=\"h-risks-to-growth-look-tilted-to-the-downside-relative-to-the-january-forecast\">&#8220;Risks to growth look tilted to the downside&#8221; relative to the January forecast<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>Early in 2026, employment growth in Canada was soft, and the unemployment rate has not improved meaningfully from the end of last year, standing at 6.7% in February compared to 6.8% on average in Q4 2025.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Consumer spending momentum, according to our tracking of RBC card spending data appeared to have stalled in January though <a href=\"https:\/\/click.website.rbc.com\/?qs=eyJkZWtJZCI6IjI5YTZiNTMxLWM1OWMtNDIwNS05NTMyLTE4NzcyZmQ3ZmM2OSIsImRla1ZlcnNpb24iOjEsIml2IjoiYURwdG5Bbk5EeGQzTkZJWFRQS0RtUT09IiwiY2lwaGVyVGV4dCI6IjRndis1dS9odWJzcmIvV2hpWUZRV2tUT01UcE5LNHhySzRydUZVZnlVSkVnZ2RxMnYwVWpKZjVhckEvUDZyTm1FNnUycWFPdjIvVkpKbUVKR0JCaU9KVURzZ0dnOTJnNmJad0p6UThYZHpSU0YwenlnNWs9IiwiYXV0aFRhZyI6IjIvVkpKbUVKR0JCaU9KVURzZ0dnOXc9PSJ9\" target=\"_blank\" data-dig-id=\"LP-CanadianAnalysis-DataFlashes-8375-9dae3a15\" data-dig-category=\"LP-CanadianAnalysis-DataFlashes\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-label=\"February showed a moderate rebound\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" class=\"rbc-link-format\">February showed a moderate rebound<\/a>. Governor Macklem highlighted tightened financial conditions\u2014rising bond yields, falling equity markets, and widening credit spreads\u2014in recent weeks as a result of the Iran conflict.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Overall, data suggests downside risks relative to the BoC&#8217;s January forecast of a 1.8% quarterly annualized GDP growth for Q1, though expectations for modest overall growth in 2026 were largely retained.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading has-rbc-bright-blue-color has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-8b28bbada1d83d14472a2928ad75d092\" id=\"h-it-s-too-early-to-assess-the-impact-of-the-conflict-in-the-middle-east-on-growth-in-canada\">&#8220;It&#8217;s too early to assess the impact of the conflict in the Middle East on growth in Canada.&#8221;<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>The recent Middle East conflict was the key focus heading into this meeting. As expected, Governor Macklem did not commit to a particular view on the net growth impact for Canada.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The BoC did explore different transmission channels, largely consistent with our own analysis: income from energy exports will rise alongside elevated oil prices, but higher energy costs will hurt consumer purchasing power. Crucially, we also expect&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/canadian-analysis\/featured-analysis\/insights\/crude-calculations-assessing-canadas-vulnerability-to-oil-prices-2\/\" target=\"_blank\" data-dig-id=\"LP-CanadianAnalysis-DataFlashes-8375-9dae3a15\" data-dig-category=\"LP-CanadianAnalysis-DataFlashes\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-label=\"little investment response\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" class=\"rbc-link-format\">little investment response<\/a>\u2014historically where most of the positive growth from higher oil prices has stemmed from.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Concerns about U.S. tariffs and trade headwinds remain, with the review of the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement noted as &#8220;a big unknown.&#8221;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading has-rbc-bright-blue-color has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-4b3f4a6a51877f285deec58b2fde8cfd\" id=\"h-governing-council-will-look-through-the-war-s-immediate-impact-on-inflation\">&#8220;Governing Council will look through the war&#8217;s immediate impact on inflation.&#8221;<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>In line with Governor Kozicki&#8217;s recent speech, Governor Macklem reiterated in today&#8217;s press conference that the immediete impact on higher energy infaltion will be &#8220;looked-through&#8221; by the central bank.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>With the Canadian economy operating in excess supply and recent inflation readings showing continued progress in easing underlying price pressure, the BoC deemed the risks of higher energy inflation spreading to other goods and services as &#8220;contained.&#8221; but cautioned that contagion risks will increase the longer the conflict persists.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Overall, this represents another supply shock\u2014following concerns over U.S. tariffs\u2014that presents the BoC with competing priorities between supporting growth and maintaining at-target inflation. Amid a fluid and constantly evolving situation, we expect the BoC to remain prudent, maintaining the overnight rate at 2.25% while awaiting additional clarity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-wide wide\" \/>\n\n\n\n<figure data-wp-context=\"{&quot;imageId&quot;:&quot;69d8b7fceaa03&quot;}\" data-wp-interactive=\"core\/image\" data-wp-key=\"69d8b7fceaa03\" class=\"wp-block-image size-large wp-lightbox-container\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" data-wp-class--hide=\"state.isContentHidden\" data-wp-class--show=\"state.isContentVisible\" data-wp-init=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" data-wp-on--click=\"actions.showLightbox\" data-wp-on--load=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" data-wp-on-window--resize=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" height=\"688\" width=\"1024\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/03\/BoC-response-requires-larger-and-more-persistent-supply-shocks-chart.png?quality=80&amp;w=1024\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-8384\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/03\/BoC-response-requires-larger-and-more-persistent-supply-shocks-chart.png 2800w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/03\/BoC-response-requires-larger-and-more-persistent-supply-shocks-chart.png?resize=300,202 300w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/03\/BoC-response-requires-larger-and-more-persistent-supply-shocks-chart.png?resize=768,516 768w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/03\/BoC-response-requires-larger-and-more-persistent-supply-shocks-chart.png?resize=1024,688 1024w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/03\/BoC-response-requires-larger-and-more-persistent-supply-shocks-chart.png?resize=1536,1032 1536w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/03\/BoC-response-requires-larger-and-more-persistent-supply-shocks-chart.png?resize=2048,1377 2048w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><button\n\t\t\tclass=\"lightbox-trigger\"\n\t\t\ttype=\"button\"\n\t\t\taria-haspopup=\"dialog\"\n\t\t\taria-label=\"Enlarge\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-init=\"callbacks.initTriggerButton\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-on--click=\"actions.showLightbox\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-style--right=\"state.imageButtonRight\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-style--top=\"state.imageButtonTop\"\n\t\t>\n\t\t\t<svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"12\" height=\"12\" fill=\"none\" viewBox=\"0 0 12 12\">\n\t\t\t\t<path fill=\"#fff\" d=\"M2 0a2 2 0 0 0-2 2v2h1.5V2a.5.5 0 0 1 .5-.5h2V0H2Zm2 10.5H2a.5.5 0 0 1-.5-.5V8H0v2a2 2 0 0 0 2 2h2v-1.5ZM8 12v-1.5h2a.5.5 0 0 0 .5-.5V8H12v2a2 2 0 0 1-2 2H8Zm2-12a2 2 0 0 1 2 2v2h-1.5V2a.5.5 0 0 0-.5-.5H8V0h2Z\" \/>\n\t\t\t<\/svg>\n\t\t<\/button><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-wide wide\" \/>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center\"><strong>About the author:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em><strong>Claire Fan<\/strong>&nbsp;is a Senior Economist at RBC. She focuses on macroeconomic analysis and is responsible for projecting key indicators including GDP, employment and inflation for Canada and the US.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-wide wide\" \/>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"author":318,"featured_media":2612,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"advgb_blocks_editor_width":"","advgb_blocks_columns_visual_guide":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[83,93],"tags":[121,115,65,109],"class_list":["post-8375","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-canadian-analysis","category-data-flashes","tag-boc","tag-canada","tag-inflation","tag-tariffs"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.2 (Yoast SEO v27.2) - 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