{"id":8238,"date":"2026-03-18T00:56:14","date_gmt":"2026-03-18T00:56:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/?p=8238"},"modified":"2026-04-03T00:21:30","modified_gmt":"2026-04-03T00:21:30","slug":"new-brunswick-budget-2026-the-age-of-deep-deficits","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/canadian-analysis\/provincial-and-fiscal-outlooks\/provincial-budgets-and-economic-statements\/new-brunswick-budget-2026-the-age-of-deep-deficits\/","title":{"rendered":"New Brunswick Budget 2026: The age of deep deficits"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<section class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-block  pos-rel\" style=\"border-radius:0px\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-inner-block  section-inner\" style=\"border-radius:0x\">\n<ul class=\"wp-block-rbc-list is-style-chevron-list\">\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>Provincial government projects record-high deficit of $1.39 billion in 2026-27, virtually unchanged from $1.38 billion in 2025-26.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>(Deep) red ink to prevail through the remainder of the fiscal plan with shortfalls shrinking only slightly to -$1.31 billion in 2027-28 and -$1.27 billion in 2028-29.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>A $1.1 billion (7.7%) expenditure surge and $159 million (1.2%) revenue drop in 2025-26 have thrown the government off the course of moderate deficits set a year ago.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>Another hefty rise in expenditures (including mounting debt service charge and increased healthcare spending) will further deepen the shortfall in 2026-27.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>Provincial indebtedness will get heavier fast though will continue to compare favourably against most other provinces.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading has-rbc-bright-blue-color has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-2e04072cd8a6e6913469651e35771618\" id=\"h-the-situation-took-an-ugly-turn-in-2025-26\">The situation took an ugly turn in 2025-26<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>The tone was set in February when New Brunswick Finance and Treasury Board Minister Ren\u00e9 Legacy presented last year\u2019s third quarter budget update. In it, he revealed a notable deterioration in the province\u2019s fiscal affairs with revenue coming weaker than expected and expenditures widely surpassing Budget 2025 projections.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>A deficit originally forecasted at just under $600 million (1.2% of GDP) in 2025-26 ballooned to $1.38 billion (2.8% of GDP, including a $50 million contingency). This turn of event prompted a thorough review of expenditures and a warning that \u201ctough decisions\u201d were coming in the upcoming budget.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-wide wide\" \/>\n\n\n\n<div id=\"everviz-8ibsccrvF\" class=\"everviz-8ibsccrvF\" data-view=\"graph\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-wide wide\" \/>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading has-rbc-bright-blue-color has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-ed3aca41816b2e849f06eb098d37df02\" id=\"h-some-spending-cuts-but-few-of-them\">Some spending cuts but few of them<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>Budget 2026 did announce measures to rein in public spending, with General Government reduced by $161 million (or 11%) and other smaller cuts to being made to Natural Resources and Regional Development Corporation in 2026-27.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading has-rbc-bright-blue-color has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-573c88de35015c12de1b39f994d4a658\" id=\"h-total-spending-still-rising-rapidly\">Total spending still rising rapidly<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>However, much larger increases to Health (up $278 million or 6.1%), Education and Early Childhood Development (up $158 million or 7.6%), Social Development (up $143 million or 7.6%) and other departments significantly boosted program spending.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>And, a sharp $120 million (16%) increase in the cost of servicing the province\u2019s rapidly growing debt further added to total in expenditures, which are projected to rise by $822 million to $15.6 billion in 2026-27.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This will exceed projected total revenue growth of $756 million (5.6%) to $14.2 billion, further deepening the budget deficit to a record high (in nominal terms) of $1.39 billion (2.7% of GDP).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading has-rbc-bright-blue-color has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-10349ca7116969ae0f4aaab818b70489\" id=\"h-heavy-deficits-through-2028-29\">Heavy deficits through 2028-29<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>Budget 2026 projects slightly stronger growth in revenues than expenditures through the remainder of the three-year fiscal plan. This results in the deficit shrinking just a touch to $1.31 billion (2.5% of GDP) in 2027-28 and to $1.27 billion (2.2% of GDP) in 2028-29.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>New Brunswick\u2019s updated deficit profile represents a substantial deterioration to the province\u2019s bottom line from Budget 2025 (which projected the gap shrinking from $447 million to $144 million over the same period).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure data-wp-context=\"{&quot;imageId&quot;:&quot;69d91b21b0717&quot;}\" data-wp-interactive=\"core\/image\" data-wp-key=\"69d91b21b0717\" class=\"wp-block-image size-full wp-lightbox-container\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"3796\" height=\"3796\" data-wp-class--hide=\"state.isContentHidden\" data-wp-class--show=\"state.isContentVisible\" data-wp-init=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" data-wp-on--click=\"actions.showLightbox\" data-wp-on--load=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" data-wp-on-window--resize=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/03\/NB-consolidated-fiscal-plan-2026-2.png?quality=80\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-8411\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/03\/NB-consolidated-fiscal-plan-2026-2.png 3796w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/03\/NB-consolidated-fiscal-plan-2026-2.png?resize=150,150 150w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/03\/NB-consolidated-fiscal-plan-2026-2.png?resize=300,300 300w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/03\/NB-consolidated-fiscal-plan-2026-2.png?resize=768,768 768w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/03\/NB-consolidated-fiscal-plan-2026-2.png?resize=1024,1024 1024w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/03\/NB-consolidated-fiscal-plan-2026-2.png?resize=1536,1536 1536w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/03\/NB-consolidated-fiscal-plan-2026-2.png?resize=2048,2048 2048w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 3796px) 100vw, 3796px\" \/><button\n\t\t\tclass=\"lightbox-trigger\"\n\t\t\ttype=\"button\"\n\t\t\taria-haspopup=\"dialog\"\n\t\t\taria-label=\"Enlarge\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-init=\"callbacks.initTriggerButton\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-on--click=\"actions.showLightbox\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-style--right=\"state.imageButtonRight\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-style--top=\"state.imageButtonTop\"\n\t\t>\n\t\t\t<svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"12\" height=\"12\" fill=\"none\" viewBox=\"0 0 12 12\">\n\t\t\t\t<path fill=\"#fff\" d=\"M2 0a2 2 0 0 0-2 2v2h1.5V2a.5.5 0 0 1 .5-.5h2V0H2Zm2 10.5H2a.5.5 0 0 1-.5-.5V8H0v2a2 2 0 0 0 2 2h2v-1.5ZM8 12v-1.5h2a.5.5 0 0 0 .5-.5V8H12v2a2 2 0 0 1-2 2H8Zm2-12a2 2 0 0 1 2 2v2h-1.5V2a.5.5 0 0 0-.5-.5H8V0h2Z\" \/>\n\t\t\t<\/svg>\n\t\t<\/button><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading has-rbc-bright-blue-color has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-6b2a04162687bf1784af999ae5a0b478\" id=\"h-provincial-debt-is-soaring-but-still-compares-well\">Provincial debt is soaring but still compares well<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>Funding deeper shortfalls will cause the province to take on debt at an accelerated pace. The government projects its net debt to surge 42% in the next three years. As a share of GDP net debt will rise from 27.9% at the end of 2025-26 to 36% by the end of 2028-29.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This would constitute the province\u2019s heaviest debt load since 2020-21.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>That said, New Brunswick entered this period of elevated economic uncertainty on a relatively strong financial footing with a lighter debt load than many other provinces\u2014affording it some room to maneuver to address pressing issues.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-wide wide\" \/>\n\n\n\n<div id=\"everviz-qnt0Z5GUm\" class=\"everviz-qnt0Z5GUm\" data-view=\"graph\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-wide wide\" \/>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading has-rbc-bright-blue-color has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-4262f4463a027c0146eb64b2f6ae3ca5\" id=\"h-a-calculated-choice\"><strong>A calculated choice<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>The government is making a calculated choice to use some of that room while the provincial economy is expected to continue growing (albeit slowly). We note nominal economic growth assumptions have even slightly improved since Budget 2025.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure data-wp-context=\"{&quot;imageId&quot;:&quot;69d91b21b1565&quot;}\" data-wp-interactive=\"core\/image\" data-wp-key=\"69d91b21b1565\" class=\"wp-block-image size-full wp-lightbox-container\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"3796\" height=\"2610\" data-wp-class--hide=\"state.isContentHidden\" data-wp-class--show=\"state.isContentVisible\" data-wp-init=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" data-wp-on--click=\"actions.showLightbox\" data-wp-on--load=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" data-wp-on-window--resize=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/03\/Economic-growth-assumptions-2026-3.png?quality=80\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-8250\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/03\/Economic-growth-assumptions-2026-3.png 3796w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/03\/Economic-growth-assumptions-2026-3.png?resize=300,206 300w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/03\/Economic-growth-assumptions-2026-3.png?resize=768,528 768w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/03\/Economic-growth-assumptions-2026-3.png?resize=1024,704 1024w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/03\/Economic-growth-assumptions-2026-3.png?resize=1536,1056 1536w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/03\/Economic-growth-assumptions-2026-3.png?resize=2048,1408 2048w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 3796px) 100vw, 3796px\" \/><button\n\t\t\tclass=\"lightbox-trigger\"\n\t\t\ttype=\"button\"\n\t\t\taria-haspopup=\"dialog\"\n\t\t\taria-label=\"Enlarge\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-init=\"callbacks.initTriggerButton\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-on--click=\"actions.showLightbox\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-style--right=\"state.imageButtonRight\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-style--top=\"state.imageButtonTop\"\n\t\t>\n\t\t\t<svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"12\" height=\"12\" fill=\"none\" viewBox=\"0 0 12 12\">\n\t\t\t\t<path fill=\"#fff\" d=\"M2 0a2 2 0 0 0-2 2v2h1.5V2a.5.5 0 0 1 .5-.5h2V0H2Zm2 10.5H2a.5.5 0 0 1-.5-.5V8H0v2a2 2 0 0 0 2 2h2v-1.5ZM8 12v-1.5h2a.5.5 0 0 0 .5-.5V8H12v2a2 2 0 0 1-2 2H8Zm2-12a2 2 0 0 1 2 2v2h-1.5V2a.5.5 0 0 0-.5-.5H8V0h2Z\" \/>\n\t\t\t<\/svg>\n\t\t<\/button><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>While that choice could be justified if measures ultimately boost New Brunswick economic potential, it\u2019s disappointing the government hasn\u2019t provided a plan\u2014possibly going beyond 2028-29\u2014to balance its books. As it stands, the current fiscal plan isn\u2019t sustainable and tough decisions seem to be for another day.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In the meantime, though, rapidly rising debt will cause debt service costs to soar. The 16% ($120 million) projected rise in those costs in 2026-27 will almost certainly be followed by further sizable increases. This will increasingly compete against the government\u2019s spending priorities (e.g. healthcare and education).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-wide wide\" \/>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center\"><strong>About the author:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Robert Hogue<\/strong><em>&nbsp;is the Assistant Chief Economist responsible for providing analysis and forecasts on the Canadian housing market and provincial economies.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-wide wide\" \/>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"author":318,"featured_media":8240,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"advgb_blocks_editor_width":"","advgb_blocks_columns_visual_guide":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[83,91,45],"tags":[105,115,52],"class_list":["post-8238","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-canadian-analysis","category-provincial-and-fiscal-outlooks","category-provincial-budgets-and-economic-statements","tag-budget","tag-canada","tag-new-brunswick"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.2 (Yoast SEO v27.2) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>New Brunswick Budget 2026: The age of deep deficits - RBC Economics<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, 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