{"id":807,"date":"2020-11-13T14:20:23","date_gmt":"2020-11-13T14:20:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/2020\/11\/13\/pandemic-drills-historic-hole-into-quebecs-budget\/"},"modified":"2020-11-13T14:20:23","modified_gmt":"2020-11-13T14:20:23","slug":"pandemic-drills-historic-hole-into-quebecs-budget","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/canadian-analysis\/provincial-and-fiscal-outlooks\/provincial-budgets-and-economic-statements\/pandemic-drills-historic-hole-into-quebecs-budget\/","title":{"rendered":"Pandemic Drills Historic Hole into Quebec&#8217;s Budget"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>Highlights:<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul class=\"disc pad-l\">\n<li> Government projects record $15 billion deficit this year<\/li>\n<li> Budget shortfall will be cut by more than half by 2022-2023<\/li>\n<li> Finance minister outlines guiding principles for returning to balance<\/li>\n<li> COVID-19 action plan boosted by $1.8 billion to $13 billion over three years<\/li>\n<li> Net debt to jump to 43.3% of GDP this year before easing slightly in the following two years<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<hr>\n<p><div id=\"highcharts-N7zQihd1Y\"><script src=\"https:\/\/app.everviz.com\/inject\/N7zQihd1Y\/\" defer=\"defer\"><\/script><\/div>\n<\/p>\n<hr>\n<p>The Quebec fall fiscal update released on November 12 taught us little on this year&#8217;s provincial budget situation that we didn&#8217;t know already. The government is headed toward a record $15 billion deficit (3.4% of GDP) as it spends heavily to deal with the pandemic at a time when the most severe recession in generations crushes its revenues. This we knew from the June fiscal update which first revealed the extent of the damage to Quebec&#8217;s books (the budget shortfall was projected to be $14.9 billion at the time). The government in June pegged the costs of managing the health crisis at $6.3 billion and the loss of own-source revenue at nearly $10 billion\u2014partially offset by a $4.1 billion increase in federal transfers. It also set aside a $4-billion provision as a prudence measure to round things off.<\/p>\n<hr>\n<h4>Economic Growth Assumptions<\/h4>\n<hr>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2025\/03\/quebec-eonomic-growth-assumptions.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"1188\" height=\"518\" class=\"alignleft size-full wp-image-27799\" \/><\/p>\n<hr>\n<p>The latest snapshot did show a material bump-up in revenue projections relative to June (own-source revenue and federal transfers were revised up by $2.8 billion and $515 million, respectively), as well as downward revisions to some expenditures (including debt service payments). Yet the government intends on using all this increased budget room on $4.5 billion in additional health crisis spending, including more than $520 million on measures to stimulate the economy. This leaves the 2020-2021 bottom line virtually unchanged from June\u2014and a big deficit it is. <\/p>\n<p>What we learned from the fall fiscal update is the government projects to run deficits of $8.3 billion in 2021-2022 and $7.0 billion in 2022-2023. We also learned net debt will surge $18 billion (10.9%) this year to $189 billion and continue to climb in the next two years, reaching $207 billion by the end of 2022-2023. Net debt will jump 6.0 percentage points to 43.3% this year as a share of GDP but is expected to ease slightly thereafter. The projected debt-to-GDP ratios remain well below historical peaks though they are elevated relative to most other provinces. While the debt situation isn&#8217;t threatening to spin out of control, Quebec Finance Minister \u00c9ric Girard indicated it will be hard to achieve the province&#8217;s legislated debt reduction targets as currently stipulated. He reiterated his government&#8217;s openness to review the Balanced Budget Act to allow more fiscal flexibility.<\/p>\n<hr>\n<p><div id=\"highcharts-dOVJ0IP0e\"><script src=\"https:\/\/app.everviz.com\/inject\/dOVJ0IP0e\/\" defer=\"defer\"><\/script><\/div>\n<\/p>\n<hr>\n<p>At least for now, exceptionally low interest rates provide some degree of cushioning. Debt service costs are slated to fall 1.3% this year to $7.6 billion. The government expects to allocate only a modestly larger share of its income to service its debt over the next two years, rising from 6.4% to 7.5%.<\/p>\n<hr>\n<p><div id=\"highcharts-Kh56v-qSo\"><script src=\"https:\/\/app.everviz.com\/inject\/Kh56v-qSo\/\" defer=\"defer\"><\/script><\/div>\n<\/p>\n<hr>\n<p>The government estimates this year&#8217;s financing program at $32.5 billion, up $0.4 billion from the June estimate. The financing program is projected to rise to $35.3 billion in 2021-2022 before edging lower to $31.8 billion in 2022-2023. <\/p>\n<p>Perhaps the biggest surprise of the fall fiscal update was the near disappearance of the 2019-2020 surplus. Estimated at $1.9 billion last March and revised higher to $3.0 billion in June, last year&#8217;s surplus has melted away to just $32 million. The government points to lower-than expected own-source revenue in March due to COVID-19, higher program expenditures and an upward revision to the assessed loss it is booking for its ownership participation in the CSeries airplane. <\/p>\n<p>It&#8217;s important to note the budget balance figures reported by the Quebec government are after deposits into the province&#8217;s Generations Fund (a form of sovereign wealth fund). Those deposits will total $2.7 billion this year. Under more conventional accounting practices used in other provinces, the operating deficit would be $12.3 billion this year in Quebec, shrinking to $3.8 billion by 2022-2023. <\/p>\n<p>The pandemic will leave long-lasting scars on the provincial budget. While the bulk of the three-year $13 billion action plan will be spent this year ($10.5 billion), covid-related expenditures are slated for the next two years as well. In fact, half of the $1.8 billion in new measures announced by Minister Girard in the fall fiscal update are earmarked for 2021-2022. Because of COVID-19 total expenditures are now projected to run $1.7 billion above the March budget baseline by 2022-2023. Revenues are seen $4.1 billion below the March baseline by that date. Realigning these trajectories will be a difficult task\u2014especially over the five-year horizon required by current legislation. The government believes its annual deficit is structural to the tune of $5.5 billion to $7.0 billion. Minister Girard reaffirmed his government&#8217;s commitment to balancing the books. He set out five principles to do so: 1) refrain from adding to Quebecers&#8217; tax burden; 2) tie spending growth to revenue growth; 3) boost the provincial economy&#8217;s potential; 4) continue the debt reduction efforts; and 5) seek more federal health care funding. These constitute a reasonable framework though it will require the cooperation of the federal government (Quebec is demanding the Canada Health Transfer cover 35% of provincial health spending). As for a more detailed plan to return to balance, we&#8217;ll need to wait a little longer to next year&#8217;s budget. Given the fluidity of the pandemic situation and high degree of economic uncertainty, that too is reasonable. <\/p>\n<hr>\n<h4>Quebec&#8217;s Consolidated Fiscal Plan<\/h4>\n<hr>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2025\/03\/quebec-fiscal-plan.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"1163\" height=\"626\" class=\"alignleft size-full wp-image-27800\" \/><\/p>\n<hr>\n<div class=\"rds-callout-white\" style=\"border: 1px solid #c4c8cc;\">\n<div class=\"rds-gcw\">\n<div style=\"display:inline-block; vertical-align: top;\" class=\"img w-mob-100\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2025\/03\/econ-download.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"261\" height=\"177\" class=\"alignleft size-full wp-image-23215\" \/><\/div>\n<div class=\"rds-inline pad-hlf\" style=\"display:inline-block; vertical-align: top;\">\n<h4 class=\"mar-t\">Read report PDF<\/h4>\n<p><a class=\"btn tertiary\" role=\"button\" href=\"https:\/\/royal-bank-of-canada-2124.docs.contently.com\/v\/pandemic-drills-historic-hole-into-quebecs-budget-report\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" data-dig-id=\"TNL_077\" data-dig-category=\"TNL Economics\" data-dig-action=\"mid-funnel click\" data-dig-label=\"Ontario Budget 2020\">Download<\/a>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Quebec is headed toward a record $15 billion deficit (3.4% of GDP) as it spends heavily to deal with the pandemic.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":265,"featured_media":805,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"advgb_blocks_editor_width":"","advgb_blocks_columns_visual_guide":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[83,91,45],"tags":[11,27],"rbc_econ_content_type":[],"class_list":["post-807","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-canadian-analysis","category-provincial-and-fiscal-outlooks","category-provincial-budgets-and-economic-statements","tag-economy","tag-quebec"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.2 (Yoast SEO v27.2) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Pandemic Drills Historic Hole into Quebec&#039;s Budget - RBC Economics<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Quebec is headed toward a record $15 billion deficit (3.4% of GDP) as it spends heavily to 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