{"id":7784,"date":"2026-03-06T19:27:03","date_gmt":"2026-03-06T19:27:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/?p=7784"},"modified":"2026-04-03T00:10:21","modified_gmt":"2026-04-03T00:10:21","slug":"inflation-concerns-grow-as-oil-prices-spike","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/us-week-ahead\/inflation-concerns-grow-as-oil-prices-spike\/","title":{"rendered":"US inflation concerns grow as oil prices spike"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<section class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-block  pos-rel\" style=\"border-radius:0px\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-inner-block  section-inner\" style=\"border-radius:0x\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns pad-t-hlf mob-pad-t-hlf pad-b-hlf mob-pad-b-hlf pad-l-hlf mob-pad-l-hlf pad-r-hlf mob-pad-r-hlf has-rbc-bright-blue-tint-4-background-color has-background is-layout-flex wp-container-core-columns-is-layout-65eef5bf wp-block-columns-is-layout-flex\" style=\"border-style:none;border-width:0px;border-radius:5px\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-column pad-b-hlf mob-pad-b-hlf pad-t-hlf mob-pad-t-hlf is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\" style=\"flex-basis:98%\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-media-text is-stacked-on-mobile is-vertically-aligned-center mar-l-hlf pad-l-hlf\" style=\"grid-template-columns:22% auto\"><figure class=\"wp-block-media-text__media\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1767\" height=\"1632\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2025\/12\/Icon-calend-dec-19-25.png?quality=80&amp;w=1024\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-6212 size-full\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2025\/12\/Icon-calend-dec-19-25.png 1767w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2025\/12\/Icon-calend-dec-19-25.png?resize=300,277 300w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2025\/12\/Icon-calend-dec-19-25.png?resize=768,709 768w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2025\/12\/Icon-calend-dec-19-25.png?resize=1024,946 1024w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2025\/12\/Icon-calend-dec-19-25.png?resize=1536,1419 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1767px) 100vw, 1767px\" \/><\/figure><div class=\"wp-block-media-text__content\">\n<p id=\"Intro\">Recent geopolitical developments in the Middle East will leave February inflation unaffected but will push gasoline prices higher in March. And higher oil prices, if sustained, would impact our headline inflation forecast for the year. If WTI settles close to $75\/barrel, we would expect headline inflation to surpass 3% by Q2. A sustained $100\/barrel reality would keep headline above 3% through\u00a02026, by our calculation. Higher energy prices will also have ramifications for retail sales in March. Squeezed consumers facing higher costs will have less room for discretionary spending, which would ultimately weigh on real retail sales even if prices support nominal metrics.<\/p>\n<\/div><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>We expect next week\u2019s data release will continue to highlight the widening gap between CPI and PCE \u2013 an unusual theme that only occurs about 20% of the time. We\u2019re concerned that data quirks surrounding missing shelter data for CPI following the government shutdown could be artificially depressing CPI relative to PCE. While we favor the PCE measure, January PCE data is stale which means that the mid-week CPI release will probably draw more market attention. We forecast both headline and core CPI will rise +0.3% m\/m in February, with year-over-year levels remaining stable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Importantly, the recent consecutive months of elevated PPI prints warrant attention. January\u2019s core PPI jumped +0.8% m\/m following a December upside of +0.6% m\/m. In both months, wholesale margins drove most of the gains \u2013 signs that tariff pressure is getting closer to impacting consumer prices because wholesalers are passing off higher costs to retailers to preserve their profit margins. These PPI increases will filter through to the CPI data with a lag, and we expect that we\u2019re in the early stages of transmission. We project core PCE will tick higher in January +0.4% m\/m, leaving the year-over-year measure unchanged at +3.0% and maintaining the 0.5 percentage point differential between core PCE and CPI. January\u2019s PPI strength should not translate to higher PCE since the components most relevant for PCE \u2013 medical care services and domestic air transportation \u2013 didn\u2019t post strong numbers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>On March 4<sup>th<\/sup>, a federal trade court order required the Administration to refund over $130 billion in global tariffs to importers, since <a href=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/us-analysis\/us-featured-analysis\/us-supreme-court-ruling-does-not-mean-tariffs-are-going-away\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" data-dig-id=\"LP-U.S.WeekAhead-7784-a63bd75d\" data-dig-label=\"IEEPA was invalidated by SCOTUS\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-category=\"LP-U.S.WeekAhead\" class=\"rbc-link-format\">IEEPA was invalidated by SCOTUS<\/a>. But we expect this will translate to limited inflation relief. While duties are paid by importers and producers, firms who faced higher costs are unlikely to reverse price hikes already implemented. The distribution mechanism for these refunds also remains unclear. Importantly, the Supreme Court\u2019s ruling does not eliminate tariff risk \u2013 the Administration has multiple pathways forward. With Section 122 tariffs locked in for 150 days, we expect continued tariff passthrough.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-wide wide\" \/>\n\n\n\n<div id=\"everviz-twgHitr3E\" class=\"everviz-twgHitr3E\" data-view=\"graph\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-wide wide\" \/>\n\n\n\n<p>Aside from inflation data, here\u2019s what else we\u2019re watching next week:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-rbc-list is-style-chevron-list\">\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p><strong>We expect to see that personal income rose +0.6% m\/m in January.<\/strong> We typically see stronger growth in wages and salaries at the front of the year, reflective of year-end pay adjustments coming to fruition. Several states hiked minimum wage in January and COLA adjustments will boost income for social security recipients to the tune of 2.7%.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p><strong>We are forecasting a +0.1% m\/m increase in personal spending in January. <\/strong>Headline retail sales were lackluster in January and weaker restaurant spending may signal weaker appetite for discretionary services.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p><strong>We expect to see initial jobless claims came in a weaker 208k <\/strong>as we have seen claims settle at persistently low levels in recent months. The February uptick in the unemployment rate (to 4.4%) was largely expected since continuing claims bottomed out during the January reference week. But our core view that the labor market is stabilizing amidst a low-firing, low job creation backdrop prevails. <strong>&nbsp;<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p><strong>We expect to see the trade balance widen to -$72.7 billion<\/strong>, notably as we see continued demand for industrial goods supporting AI infrastructure expansion. While IEEPA was overturned, we do not expect this to impact any data until February at the earliest.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p><strong>Durable goods orders will likely land on the weaker side for January, -2.0% m\/m, though this is largely a transportation sector story<\/strong>. Boeing orders continued to moderate in January after a November surge. <strong>Excluding the more volatile transportation sector, we have durables -0.5% m\/m.<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>JOLTS job openings data for January is stale, but we expect to see an uptick in job openings after the surge in hiring highlighted in January\u2019s NFP. February\u2019s NFP reversal highlights that January\u2019s surge was not sustainable and that hiring remains a structural story this year. &nbsp;<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>We are slated to get quite a bit of housing data next week (<strong>existing home sales, housing starts and building permits<\/strong>) and expect that the data will be lackluster. <strong>February existing home sales likely slid to an underwhelming 3.83 million<\/strong> and weaker expected January housing starts do not paint a particularly rosy picture. Building permits are expected to tick up slightly.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<figure data-wp-context=\"{&quot;imageId&quot;:&quot;69e7556fa02f5&quot;}\" data-wp-interactive=\"core\/image\" data-wp-key=\"69e7556fa02f5\" class=\"wp-block-image size-full wp-lightbox-container\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"5544\" height=\"3316\" data-wp-class--hide=\"state.isContentHidden\" data-wp-class--show=\"state.isContentVisible\" data-wp-init=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" data-wp-on--click=\"actions.showLightbox\" data-wp-on--load=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" data-wp-on-window--resize=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/03\/US-WA-Mar-6-2026.png?quality=80\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-7791\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/03\/US-WA-Mar-6-2026.png 5544w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/03\/US-WA-Mar-6-2026.png?resize=300,179 300w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/03\/US-WA-Mar-6-2026.png?resize=768,459 768w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/03\/US-WA-Mar-6-2026.png?resize=1024,612 1024w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/03\/US-WA-Mar-6-2026.png?resize=1536,919 1536w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/03\/US-WA-Mar-6-2026.png?resize=2048,1225 2048w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 5544px) 100vw, 5544px\" \/><button\n\t\t\tclass=\"lightbox-trigger\"\n\t\t\ttype=\"button\"\n\t\t\taria-haspopup=\"dialog\"\n\t\t\taria-label=\"Enlarge\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-init=\"callbacks.initTriggerButton\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-on--click=\"actions.showLightbox\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-style--right=\"state.imageButtonRight\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-style--top=\"state.imageButtonTop\"\n\t\t>\n\t\t\t<svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"12\" height=\"12\" fill=\"none\" viewBox=\"0 0 12 12\">\n\t\t\t\t<path fill=\"#fff\" d=\"M2 0a2 2 0 0 0-2 2v2h1.5V2a.5.5 0 0 1 .5-.5h2V0H2Zm2 10.5H2a.5.5 0 0 1-.5-.5V8H0v2a2 2 0 0 0 2 2h2v-1.5ZM8 12v-1.5h2a.5.5 0 0 0 .5-.5V8H12v2a2 2 0 0 1-2 2H8Zm2-12a2 2 0 0 1 2 2v2h-1.5V2a.5.5 0 0 0-.5-.5H8V0h2Z\" \/>\n\t\t\t<\/svg>\n\t\t<\/button><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-wide wide\" \/>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center\"><strong>About the Authors<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em><strong>Mike Reid<\/strong>&nbsp;is Head of U.S. Economics at RBC. He is responsible for generating RBC\u2019s U.S. economic outlook, providing commentary on macro indicators, and producing written analysis around the economic backdrop.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em><strong>Carrie Freestone<\/strong>&nbsp;is a Senior US Economist&nbsp; at RBC Capital Markets. Carrie is responsible for projecting key US indicators including GDP, employment, consumer spending and inflation for the US. She also contributes to commentary surrounding the US economic backdrop which she delivers to clients through publications, presentations, and the media.&nbsp;<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em><strong>Imri Haggin<\/strong>&nbsp;is an Economist at RBC Capital Markets, where he focuses on thematic research. His prior work has centered on consumer credit dynamics and treasury modeling, with an emphasis on leveraging data to understand behavior.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-wide wide\" \/>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"author":318,"featured_media":4524,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"advgb_blocks_editor_width":"","advgb_blocks_columns_visual_guide":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[86],"tags":[107,17,65,58,110],"rbc_econ_content_type":[],"class_list":["post-7784","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-us-week-ahead","tag-consumer-spending","tag-housing","tag-inflation","tag-labour-market","tag-u-s"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.2 (Yoast SEO v27.2) - 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