{"id":7724,"date":"2026-03-06T13:38:01","date_gmt":"2026-03-06T13:38:01","guid":{"rendered":""},"modified":"2026-04-03T00:09:11","modified_gmt":"2026-04-03T00:09:11","slug":"winter-doldrums-keep-canadian-house-prices-under-pressure","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/canadian-analysis\/canadian-housing\/local-real-estate-markets\/winter-doldrums-keep-canadian-house-prices-under-pressure\/","title":{"rendered":"Winter doldrums keep Canadian house prices under pressure"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\n
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Housing markets across Canada remain subdued, despite signs of stabilization in consumer confidence.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Toronto and Vancouver remained at the centre of the downturn, posting the steepest price declines from a year ago alongside Fraser Valley.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Demographic headwinds combined with elevated inventories are expected to keep prices under pressure through spring in these markets, where supply and demand dynamics already favours buyers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Montreal continued to defy the broader trend with firmer conditions keeping price growth positive. Though the market tipped into balance in January and held there through February, seller leverage hasn\u2019t slipped enough to trigger price concessions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tight inventory across Montreal and several Prairie markets, including Regina and Saskatoon, continues to underpin price resilience.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/div>\n\n\n\n

Toronto area: Buyers still call the shots<\/h4>\n\n\n\n

Toronto\u2019s housing market continued to deteriorate in February. Sales declined 4.9% month-over-month seasonally adjusted, following an outsized 9.9% slide in January.\u00a0With five consecutive months of declining transactions, the underlying trend remains unambiguously downward.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Five consecutive months of declining transactions marks an underlying downward trend.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A steep 11.5% month-over-month drop in new listings (seasonally adjusted) appears to be an anomaly in a market that’s still flush with inventory. Active listings remain elevated despite early signs of moderating since end of 2025 peaks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Supply-demand dynamics remain in favour of buyers, who continue to eke out price concessions from sellers. The MLS Composite Home Price Index fell another 7.9% year-over-year in nearly two uninterrupted years of straight declines.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Slowing international immigration combined with net outflows to other regions and provinces will continue weighing on demand ahead, likely keeping prices under pressure this spring.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/div>\n\n\n\n

Montreal area: Seller leverage begins to slip<\/h4>\n\n\n\n

February’s softer sales\u2014down 1.2% seasonally adjusted from January\u2014maintained balanced market conditions in Montreal after January’s exceptional 22% surge in new listings tipped the market into equilibrium for the first time in more than a year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

New listings inched higher by 1.3% seasonally adjusted in February, a notable deceleration from last month’s one-time influx.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Montreal remains one of two major Canadian markets showing prices consistently elevated from a year ago. The median single-family home price gained 7% year-over-year in line with recent months.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Relatively low inventory continues to underpin price resilience. Seller leverage will likely need to fall further before prices see meaningful erosion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/div>\n\n\n\n

Vancouver area: February\u2019s gain rings hollow<\/h4>\n\n\n\n

We estimate sales increased 3.1% in February from the previous month seasonally adjusted in Vancouver, but the gain lacks momentum.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The market hasn’t recorded three consecutive months of gains since mid-2025. Volatility\u2014including months of considerable deterioration\u2014keeps resales significantly depressed from longer-term averages, signalling ongoing weakness rather than genuine recovery.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

New listings dropped a steep 16.3% by our count (seasonally adjusted) from January. That helped bring the sales-to-new listings ratio back over the 30% threshold after it dipped to its lowest since 2008 last month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The drop in new listings, however, did little for overall inventory. Elevated stock persists, keeping leverage with buyers and prices on a downtrend. Greater Vancouver’s MLS HPI benchmark fell 6.8% year-over-year\u2014showing six months of increasingly sharp price declines.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/div>\n\n\n\n

Calgary: Construction wave keeps supply elevated<\/h4>\n\n\n\n

Sales declined 6.4% seasonally adjusted in February from the previous month in Calgary, led by weakness in higher-density units like apartments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We estimate new listings fell by a similar 7% month-over-month seasonally adjusted, extending a moderation trend that began in mid-2025 (except the 8.6% increase between January and December).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Active listings have retreated from peak levels observed last year, but continue to handcuff the market, sitting 16.4% above a year ago\u2014sustaining downward pressure on prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The composite HPI benchmark deteriorated another 4.4% year-over-year with apartments and row housing absorbing the sharpest losses.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Residential construction remains robust in the pipeline\u2014particularly for apartments. A record-high number of residential units under construction suggest inventory will likely remain elevated in Calgary through spring.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/div>\n\n\n\n
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Download the Report<\/a><\/h4>\n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n

About the author:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Rachel Battaglia<\/strong>\u00a0is an Economist at RBC, providing forecasts for the Canadian provincial economies and analysing key trends in housing and consumer spending.<\/em><\/em><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"author":318,"featured_media":5647,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"advgb_blocks_editor_width":"","advgb_blocks_columns_visual_guide":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[83,38,88],"tags":[115,17,112],"rbc_econ_content_type":[],"class_list":["post-7724","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-canadian-analysis","category-canadian-housing","category-local-real-estate-markets","tag-canada","tag-housing","tag-real-estate-markets"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nWinter doldrums keep Canadian house prices under pressure - RBC Economics<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" 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