{"id":7097,"date":"2026-02-11T16:00:51","date_gmt":"2026-02-11T16:00:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/?p=7097"},"modified":"2026-04-02T23:58:04","modified_gmt":"2026-04-02T23:58:04","slug":"u-s-tariff-collection-may-have-slowed-but-expect-impact-to-linger","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/financial-markets-monthly\/u-s-tariff-collection-may-have-slowed-but-expect-impact-to-linger\/","title":{"rendered":"U.S. tariff collection may have slowed but expect impact to linger"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
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Highlights:<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n
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U.S. tariff collection has slowed but their economic impact has not fully played out. <\/strong>Slow passthrough to the real economy means more build up in inflationary pressure in the U.S. amid already-heightened affordability concerns.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

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Our forecast adjustments this month are minor.<\/strong> We revised Q4 Canadian GDP growth in 2025 down slightly, and moved the U.S. unemployment rate forecast this year marginally lower.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

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However, our core views are unchanged.<\/strong> We still expect broadly positive Canadian growth in 2026 supported by real per-capita improvements, and stabilizing labour market conditions in the U.S. to limit the need for additional central bank easing \u2013 both the Bank of Canada and the U.S. Federal Reserve are expected to remain on hold this year.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

Issue in focus:<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n
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A Supreme Court ruling on U.S. IEEPA tariffs could affect Canada’s competitive position in the U.S. import market. Still, we don\u2019t expect a substantial change from the ruling to our Canadian outlook, provided exemptions from IEEPA measures for CUSMA compliant trade remain intact.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

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Forecast changes:<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

We are tracking signs that historically elevated U.S. tariff collections may have slowed near the end of 2025, consistent with our cautiously optimistic outlook for Canada<\/a> and the U.S.<\/a> this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Customs duties received by the U.S. Department of the Treasury came in just under US$29 billion in January, still more than triple the US$8 billion collected in January 2025, but down from a peak US$33 billion last October. Declines were driven by reduced tariffs on China, and an expanding list of exempted products from reciprocal tariffs, both in effect from November.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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That said, uncertainty surrounding U.S. protectionist trade policy linger, and the lagged effects of tariffs are still very much in play. An imminent U.S. Supreme Court ruling on the legal status of IEEPA tariffs remains a key source of volatility to our forecast, as we seek clarity on tariff pass-through (with reduced data visibility) tcore goods inflation that’s still expected to rise into Q2.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In Canada, we expect fewer implications from the IEEPA ruling as long as crucial tariff exemptions tied to CUSMA-compliant trade are preserved (see more in Issue in Focus below). Trade-exposed manufacturing sectors continue to underperform, but spillover to the rest of the economy remains limited.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Overall, we\u2019ve not made big changes, but minor tweaks to our base case forecasts in February:<\/p>\n\n\n\n