{"id":669,"date":"2020-08-20T10:15:17","date_gmt":"2020-08-20T10:15:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/2020\/08\/20\/the-canadian-dream-postponed-near-term-recovery-in-immigration-levels-is-unlikely\/"},"modified":"2025-03-26T03:38:10","modified_gmt":"2025-03-26T03:38:10","slug":"the-canadian-dream-postponed-near-term-recovery-in-immigration-levels-is-unlikely","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/canadian-analysis\/featured-analysis\/insights\/the-canadian-dream-postponed-near-term-recovery-in-immigration-levels-is-unlikely\/","title":{"rendered":"The Canadian Dream Postponed: Near-term Recovery in Immigration Levels is Unlikely"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>New data underscore the extent of the impact, and suggest the slowdown could last for many months. Even under our most optimistic scenario, we expect that, of the 341,000 new permanent residents Canada was targeting this year, only 70% will be granted permanent residency. The reduced flow threatens to, at least temporarily, derail what&#8217;s been a major source of economic growth for Canada in recent years.<\/p>\n<h4>Key Points:<\/h4>\n<ul class=\"disc pad-l\">\n<li> Canada added 34,000 permanent residents in the second quarter, down 67% from the same period in 2019<\/li>\n<li> The number of temporary work permits that came into effect was down around 50% in the quarter; permits for the agriculture sector were a bright spot<\/li>\n<li> Just over 10,000 new study permits were processed, down from 107,000 a year earlier<\/li>\n<li> New visa applications were down 80%, indicating the slowdown could be lengthy<\/li>\n<li> June saw signs of recovery<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h4>After a two-month drought, some green shoots in June<\/h4>\n<p>Canada experienced a broad-based decline in immigration in the April-June period, as would-be newcomers eyeing temporary work, study opportunities, or the chance to build a new life here saw their plans upended by the pandemic. Permanent-resident arrivals plunged to 34,000 in the quarter from 94,000 a year earlier\u2014a 67% drop. June saw a partial recovery, although permanent immigration in the month was still down 44% from June 2019, reflecting the fact that travel into Canada remains restricted to those who have a permanent resident visa dated on or before March 18. <\/p>\n<hr>\n<p><b>Canadian immigration slowed after travel restrictions came into effect<\/b><\/p>\n<p>thousands (000s)<\/p>\n<div class=\"grid-wpr\">\n<div class=\"grid-one-third\">\n<div id=\"highcharts-IOHMeo11L\"><script src=\"https:\/\/app.everviz.com\/inject\/IOHMeo11L\/\" defer=\"defer\"><\/script><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<div class=\"grid-one-third\">\n<div id=\"highcharts-m-ytHe2dw\"><script src=\"https:\/\/app.everviz.com\/inject\/m-ytHe2dw\/\" defer=\"defer\"><\/script><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<div class=\"grid-one-third\">\n<div id=\"highcharts-x1nIohEPD\"><script src=\"https:\/\/app.everviz.com\/inject\/x1nIohEPD\/\" defer=\"defer\"><\/script><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p>Source: Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada, RBC Economics | Data available until June 2020<\/p>\n<p>*Temporary residents and student permits issues reflect the month that the permit became active <\/p>\n<hr>\n<p>Immigration Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) approved 24,000 new permanent residents from April to June. Given that arrivals into Canada at international airports in June totaled about 4,000 people, it&#8217;s clear most of those people were already physically in Canada. Until more travel restrictions are lifted, we expect to see much lower levels of new permanent residents even as processing times improve. At the current pace, we expect only 70% of the originally planned 341,000 new permanent residents at the end of the year.<\/p>\n<hr>\n<p><b>So-called economic immigration has recovered faster<\/b><\/p>\n<p>thousands (000s) of new permanent resident arrivals<\/p>\n<div class=\"grid-wpr\">\n<div class=\"grid-half\">\n<div id=\"highcharts-XdYc7PXdQ0\"><script src=\"https:\/\/app.everviz.com\/inject\/XdYc7PXdQ0\/\" defer=\"defer\"><\/script><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"grid-half\">\n<div id=\"highcharts-zQefuybI_\"><script src=\"https:\/\/app.everviz.com\/inject\/zQefuybI_\/\" defer=\"defer\"><\/script><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>Source: Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada, RBC Economics | Data available until June 2020<\/p>\n<hr>\n<h4>Canada was able to staff farms and greenhouses<\/h4>\n<p>When border restrictions were first implemented, the agriculture sector&#8217;s access to critical seasonal labour was a major concern. With some effort and financial assistance to producers, Canada was able to maintain the flow of temporary foreign agriculture workers at near-2019 levels, despite their requirement to self-isolate for two weeks upon arrival.<\/p>\n<hr>\n<div id=\"highcharts-0LLMkYHfY\"><script src=\"https:\/\/app.everviz.com\/inject\/0LLMkYHfY\/\" defer=\"defer\"><\/script><\/div>\n<hr>\n<p>For other temporary foreign worker categories (such as live-in caregivers), permit approvals remained well off year-earlier levels. While demand for these workers doesn&#8217;t match the highs of seasonal agricultural work, many of these workers are employed in healthcare, particularly in caring for the elderly. Given the demands COVID-19 has placed on Canada&#8217;s healthcare sector, especially in long-term care facilities, the need for workers has never been greater, and any slowdown is likely to add to existing strains.<\/p>\n<h4>A robust recovery is unlikely in the near term<\/h4>\n<p>Data on new permanent resident applications gives us pause for the fall and winter. Visa-application centers remain closed in many countries, limiting the ability of prospective immigrants to even apply. Furthermore, the painful consequences of the pandemic, which include health concerns, increased demands on family caregivers and job losses, are likely to combine to make people less likely to seek to immigrate at the current time. That helps explain why new permanent-residency applications to Canada were down 80% in the second quarter.<\/p>\n<hr>\n<div id=\"highcharts-6UYPJ-4YY\"><script src=\"https:\/\/app.everviz.com\/inject\/6UYPJ-4YY\/\" defer=\"defer\"><\/script><\/div>\n<hr>\n<p>Time from application to approval can take anywhere from one to two years in normal times, meaning Canada may not feel the full effects of COVID-19 on immigration until after 2020. Doubling down on programs that encourage immigrants already here temporarily\u2014like students and TFWs\u2014to remain permanently might be Canada&#8217;s best bet to keep the flow of immigrants high. <\/p>\n<p>Of the 24,000 new permanent residents this quarter, around 58% had been TFWs, students, or in the International Mobility Program. Typically only about 20% of new permanent residents come from such temporary permit holders.<\/p>\n<table id=\"swipe-table-example\" class=\"table-striped table-swipe tablesaw\" data-tablesaw-mode=\"swipe\" data-tablesaw-minimap=\"\">\n<caption class=\"offscreen\">Risk Profiles<\/caption>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th class=\"w-33 w-mob-33\" scope=\"col\">\n<p><font color=\"#004379\"><\/p>\n<h4><center>Why It All Matters<\/center><\/h4>\n<p><\/font><\/p>\n<\/h4>\n<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>\n<p>Even as Canada focuses its energy to confront the realities of COVID-19, the demographic challenges of the next decade remain. High levels of immigration are required to support:<\/p>\n<ul class=\"disc pad-l\">\n<li> Canada&#8217;s rapidly aging population (especially the costs of eldercare);<\/li>\n<li> the growth of Canada&#8217;s cities (disruptions may reverberate through housing and rental markets);<\/li>\n<li> Canada&#8217;s post-secondary institutions (which lean heavily on international students to fund operations)<\/li>\n<li> innovation (by drawing on the world&#8217;s best talent);<\/li>\n<li> the goal of building a diverse, inclusive Canada<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<h4>The return of students remains an open question <\/h4>\n<p>As we head into the fall, there isn&#8217;t much clarity on the number of international students that will arrive to start the semester. The number of new study permits that were finalized in the second quarter was worrisomely low: only about 10% of the normal volume was processed compared to the same time period last year. Since July and August are historically the busiest months for new study visas, it remains to be seen whether processing rates can recover. The introduction of the two-stage approval process, which lets some students begin their studies in their home countries online without first entering Canada, may provide a buffer to colleges&#8217; and universities&#8217; tuition receipts until a more normalized process is in place. However, if these low numbers reflect also a steep decline in new applications \u2013 something similar to the 63% drop in temporary resident visa applications across all categories in June \u2013 then colleges, universities and the towns that house them may be in for a difficult year, financially. While disruptions to all types of immigration will prove costly, the pain caused by the failure of students to arrive is particularly acute and not something that can be made up easily in years to come. It may prove to truly be a lost year. <\/p>\n<hr>\n<div id=\"highcharts-OIsg_9vKH\"><script src=\"https:\/\/app.everviz.com\/inject\/OIsg_9vKH\/\" defer=\"defer\"><\/script><\/div>\n<hr>\n<div class=\"rds-callout-white\" style=\"border: 1px solid #c4c8cc;\">\n<div class=\"rds-gcw\">\n<div class=\"img w-mob-100\" style=\"display: inline-block; vertical-align: top;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2025\/03\/econ-download.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"261\" height=\"177\" class=\"alignleft size-full wp-image-23215\" \/><\/div>\n<div class=\"rds-inline pad-hlf\" style=\"display:inline-block; vertical-align: top;\">\n<h4 class=\"mar-t\">Download the Report<\/h4>\n<p><a class=\"btn tertiary\" role=\"button\" href=\"https:\/\/royal-bank-of-canada-2124.docs.contently.com\/v\/the-canadian-dream-postponed-near-term-recovery-in-immigration-levels-is-unlikely-report\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" data-dig-id=\"TNL_081\" data-dig-category=\"TNL Economics\" data-dig-action=\"mid-funnel click\" data-dig-label=\"Canadian Dream Postponed\">Download<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The reduced flow of immigration to Canada threatens to derail what&#8217;s been a major source of economic growth for Canada in recent years.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":267,"featured_media":666,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"advgb_blocks_editor_width":"","advgb_blocks_columns_visual_guide":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[83,82,84],"tags":[22,11,35],"class_list":["post-669","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-canadian-analysis","category-featured-analysis","category-insights","tag-diversity","tag-economy","tag-youth"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.2 (Yoast SEO v27.2) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>The Canadian Dream Postponed: Near-term Recovery in Immigration Levels is Unlikely - RBC Economics<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"RBC Economics expects only 70% of Canada\u2019s 2020 permanent resident target to be granted. 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