{"id":6198,"date":"2025-12-19T16:10:26","date_gmt":"2025-12-19T16:10:26","guid":{"rendered":""},"modified":"2026-04-02T23:35:30","modified_gmt":"2026-04-02T23:35:30","slug":"delayed-gdp-release-to-signal-growth-still-firm-in-q3","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/us-week-ahead\/delayed-gdp-release-to-signal-growth-still-firm-in-q3\/","title":{"rendered":"Delayed GDP release to signal growth still firm in Q3"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<section class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-block  pos-rel\" style=\"border-radius:0px\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-inner-block  section-inner\" style=\"border-radius:0x\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns pad-t-hlf mob-pad-t-hlf pad-b-hlf mob-pad-b-hlf pad-l-hlf mob-pad-l-hlf pad-r-hlf mob-pad-r-hlf has-rbc-bright-blue-tint-4-background-color has-background is-layout-flex wp-container-core-columns-is-layout-65eef5bf wp-block-columns-is-layout-flex\" style=\"border-style:none;border-width:0px;border-radius:5px\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-column pad-b-hlf mob-pad-b-hlf pad-t-hlf mob-pad-t-hlf is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\" style=\"flex-basis:98%\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-media-text is-stacked-on-mobile is-vertically-aligned-center mar-l-hlf pad-l-hlf\" style=\"grid-template-columns:22% auto\"><figure class=\"wp-block-media-text__media\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1767\" height=\"1632\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2025\/12\/Icon-calend-dec-19-25.png?quality=80&amp;w=1024\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-6212 size-full\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2025\/12\/Icon-calend-dec-19-25.png 1767w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2025\/12\/Icon-calend-dec-19-25.png?resize=300,277 300w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2025\/12\/Icon-calend-dec-19-25.png?resize=768,709 768w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2025\/12\/Icon-calend-dec-19-25.png?resize=1024,946 1024w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2025\/12\/Icon-calend-dec-19-25.png?resize=1536,1419 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1767px) 100vw, 1767px\" \/><\/figure><div class=\"wp-block-media-text__content\">\n<p>Next week brings a data-heavy calendar before the holidays close in, with most releases hitting Tuesday. While these releases will be less consequential for the Fed after this week&#8217;s flurry of employment and inflation data, they&#8217;re still worth watching.<\/p>\n<\/div><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-this-week-s-recap\"><strong>This Week&#8217;s Recap<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>As a quick recap, this week we got both a delayed <a href=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/us-analysis\/us-data-flashes\/us-employment-report-the-fog-is-clearing-but-crosswinds-persist\/\" target=\"_blank\" data-dig-id=\"LP-U.S.WeekAhead-6198-f6709534\" data-dig-category=\"LP-U.S.WeekAhead\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-label=\"double employment report\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" class=\"rbc-link-format\">double employment report<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/us-analysis\/us-data-flashes\/november-inflation-a-gift-for-fed-doves-but-proceed-with-caution\/\" target=\"_blank\" data-dig-id=\"LP-U.S.WeekAhead-6198-f6709534\" data-dig-category=\"LP-U.S.WeekAhead\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-label=\"November CPI data\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" class=\"rbc-link-format\">November CPI data<\/a>, both sending mixed signals. The November headline employment gains appeared relatively healthy on the surface \u2013 though with some concerning underlying themes. Cyclically-exposed services sectors (which exclude government and health and social assistance) shed jobs for the first time since early summer, and trade-exposed sectors continued to post weakness. Moreover, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/canadian-analysis\/featured-analysis\/insights\/qcew-revisions-confirm-fewer-u-s-jobs-were-added\/\" target=\"_blank\" data-dig-id=\"LP-U.S.WeekAhead-6198-f6709534\" data-dig-category=\"LP-U.S.WeekAhead\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-label=\"once we factor in QCEW revisions that are likely pending\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" class=\"rbc-link-format\">once we factor in QCEW revisions that are likely pending<\/a>, we are very likely tracking below <a href=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/us-analysis\/us-featured-analysis\/us-breakeven-employment-is-falling\/\" target=\"_blank\" data-dig-id=\"LP-U.S.WeekAhead-6198-f6709534\" data-dig-category=\"LP-U.S.WeekAhead\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-label=\"our estimate of breakeven employment\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" class=\"rbc-link-format\">our estimate of breakeven employment<\/a>. October headline data was distorted by DOGE buyout recipients falling off of payrolls, but we saw similar trends with services sector hiring slowing to a crawl. And while Fed Doves would have seen a jump in the unemployment rate (to 4.6%) as an opportunity to defend their case, we were not concerned by this uptick since it was entirely driven by re-entrants into the labor market rather than prime age permanent layoffs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Fed Doves may also have considered the November CPI report to be an early holiday present \u2013 with a massive downside to both core and headline inflation. But we caution against giving this report too much weight. Month-over-month measures were absent since the October data was unable to be collected during the government shutdown and though services sector inflation ticked down meaningfully, OER provided a lot of the help (and we do not expect this will be sustained). While the goods sector did show relief, we expect that this reflects companies&#8217; desires to maintain market share during the holiday season. We expect that the Fed will treat the report as a one-off given disruptions around data collection. We anticipate that the December CPI report ahead of the next Fed meeting will be of more help.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-next-week-s-events\"><strong>Next Week&#8217;s Events<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Heading into the next week, GDP data will be front and center. <strong>Our forecast calls for real GDP growth to come in +2.5% at a quarter-over-quarter annualized pace in Q3, with a bit of upside risk given uncertainty around inventory levels. <\/strong>We know that consumer spending eclipsed Q2 by a slight margin, as services spending continued to be supported by high income earners and spending on nondurables ramped up meaningfully. Durables spending, on the other hand, was entirely flat, after a Q2 pull forward in spending (accompanied by a downshift in savings rates) in the face of tariffs. September trade data pointed to slightly weaker imports in Q3, again, a product of an earlier pull forward, alongside a ramp up in exports. Adjusting for nonmonetary gold imports could nudge Q3 GDP higher.&nbsp; Inventories will be another wildcard and could move the needle meaningfully, after we saw distortions in earlier quarters.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-wide wide\" \/>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image aligncenter size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"762\" height=\"514\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2025\/12\/Screenshot-2025-12-19-104339.png?quality=80\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-6208\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2025\/12\/Screenshot-2025-12-19-104339.png 762w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2025\/12\/Screenshot-2025-12-19-104339.png?resize=300,202 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 762px) 100vw, 762px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-wide wide\" \/>\n\n\n\n<p>Outside of real GDP, we have a few other releases ahead of the holidays:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-rbc-list is-style-chevron-list\">\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>We have a double industrial production report on Tuesday. <strong>For October, we expect to see industrial production ticking slightly lower -0.1% m\/m <\/strong>due to a pullback in manufacturing hours worked and a weaker ISM manufacturing print. <strong>In November, industrial production likely ticked up by +0.3% m\/m, bringing the capacity utilization rate to 76.1%.<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p><strong>We anticipate that the durable goods report will show a pullback in orders in October (-4.5%), largely due to fewer Boeing orders.<\/strong> But even excluding transportation equipment, we expect to see a slight pullback (-1.1%) as we expect weaker activity in most categories.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p><strong>We expect to see initial jobless claims tick slightly lower to 217k in the week ending December 20<sup>th<\/sup><\/strong> after we saw a moderation in claims this week following Thanksgiving holiday distortions. <strong>For the week ending December 27<sup>th<\/sup>, we will likely see claims move slightly higher to 233k.<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image alignfull size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"3825\" height=\"2169\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2025\/12\/US-WA-Dec-19-25.png?quality=80\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-6209\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2025\/12\/US-WA-Dec-19-25.png 3825w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2025\/12\/US-WA-Dec-19-25.png?resize=300,170 300w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2025\/12\/US-WA-Dec-19-25.png?resize=768,436 768w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2025\/12\/US-WA-Dec-19-25.png?resize=1024,581 1024w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2025\/12\/US-WA-Dec-19-25.png?resize=1536,871 1536w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2025\/12\/US-WA-Dec-19-25.png?resize=2048,1161 2048w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 3825px) 100vw, 3825px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading has-rbc-bright-blue-tint-1-color has-text-color has-link-color has-text-lg-font-size wp-elements-93b9348dd42285136a6aeae7dfb0b224\" id=\"h-the-us-week-ahead-returns-monday-january-5th\"><em>The US Week Ahead returns Monday, January 5th.<\/em><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-wide wide\" \/>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center\"><strong>About the Authors<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em><strong>Mike Reid<\/strong>&nbsp;is a Senior U.S. Economist at RBC. He is responsible for generating RBC\u2019s U.S. economic outlook, providing commentary on macro indicators, and producing written analysis around the economic backdrop.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em><strong>Carrie Freestone<\/strong>&nbsp;is an economist and a member of the macroeconomic analysis group. She is responsible for examining key economic trends including consumer spending, labour markets, GDP, and inflation.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em><strong>Imri Haggin<\/strong>&nbsp;is an economist at RBC Capital Markets, where he focuses on thematic research. His prior work has centered on consumer credit dynamics and treasury modeling, with an emphasis on leveraging data to understand behavior.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-wide wide\" \/>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"author":318,"featured_media":4524,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"advgb_blocks_editor_width":"","advgb_blocks_columns_visual_guide":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[86],"tags":[103,58,110],"class_list":["post-6198","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-us-week-ahead","tag-gdp","tag-labour-market","tag-u-s"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.2 (Yoast SEO v27.2) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Delayed GDP release to signal 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