{"id":6062,"date":"2025-12-16T14:42:40","date_gmt":"2025-12-16T14:42:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/?p=6062"},"modified":"2026-04-02T23:32:47","modified_gmt":"2026-04-02T23:32:47","slug":"us-employment-report-the-fog-is-clearing-but-crosswinds-persist","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/us-analysis\/us-data-flashes\/us-employment-report-the-fog-is-clearing-but-crosswinds-persist\/","title":{"rendered":"US Employment Report: The fog is clearing but crosswinds persist"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<section class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-block  pos-rel\" style=\"border-radius:0px\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-inner-block  section-inner\" style=\"border-radius:0x\">\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-rbc-dark-blue-color has-text-color has-link-color has-text-major-lg-font-size wp-elements-eef14e7861b7c130ea20d12e53a52800\" id=\"h-the-bottom-line-nbsp\"><strong>The Bottom Line:&nbsp;<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Today\u2019s double payroll report was noisy but showed a continued weakening in the labor market. November payrolls reported above consensus, adding 64k jobs but the unemployment rate ticked higher as DOGE cuts in October (-162k decline in Federal govt in Oct) and a surge of re-entrants in November added to the ranks of unemployed. The uptick in re-entrants can be viewed as relatively benign \u2013 they are less impactful to the macro backdrop vs job losers because their flows do not represent a loss of income and spending power. At the same time, the inability of those re-entrants to find jobs suggests peak seasonal hiring season is weaker than typical, and the labor market continues to suffer from uncertainty. We continue to see mixed signals from multiple data sources, and we caution reading too much into a single data point in today\u2019s report.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Here&#8217;s what stood out to us in this morning&#8217;s report:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading pad-t-0 mob-pad-t-0 has-text-major-xs-font-size\" id=\"h-1-nbsp-nbsp-nbsp-unemployment-rate-jumped-to-4-6-but-this-was-largely-a-re-entrants-story\">1)&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;<strong>Unemployment rate jumped to 4.6% &#8211; but this was largely a re-entrants story<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-rbc-list is-style-black-disc mar-l-qtr mob-mar-l-qtr\">\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>While this morning&#8217;s upside surprise to the unemployment rate \u2013 to 4.6% &#8211; garnered attention, the details were reassuring. The uptick was entirely driven by re-entrants and workers on temporary layoff. In fact, permanent layoffs ticked lower.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>Similar to what we have seen previously, younger workers were most affected by the uptick in the UER. Interestingly, in November it was teens aged 16 to 19 who saw the most pronounced leap in the UER \u2013 to 16.3% &#8211; the highest for that age group since 2020. The unemployment rate ticked lower for those aged 20 to 24 and prime-age UER ticked up slightly to 3.9% which is historically low but still the highest in four years.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>It was the uptick in U6 unemployment \u2013 that moved notably higher to 8.7% from 8.0% in September. Three-quarters of the uptick in U6 unemployment can be attributed to those working part time for economic reasons. But the aggregate hours index in payrolls suggests this stems from re-entrants who could only find part-time work, not full-time workers losing hours.&nbsp;<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading has-text-major-xs-font-size\" id=\"h-2-employment-growth-looks-firm-in-november-but-likely-tracking-below-breakeven-heading-into-2026\"><strong>2) <strong>Employment growth looks firm in November, but likely tracking below breakeven heading into 2026<\/strong><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-rbc-list is-style-black-disc mar-l-qtr mob-mar-l-qtr\">\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>The reality remains that it is becoming increasingly difficult to gauge what constitutes a favorable NFP print. It is important to remember that the preliminary QCEW benchmark revisions earlier this year suggest payroll growth is on average ~70K lower than what is currently being published. With this in mind and in the context of our estimate of <a href=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/us-analysis\/us-featured-analysis\/us-breakeven-employment-is-falling\/\" data-dig-id=\"LP-U.S.Analysis-DataFlashes-US-6062-949630a8\" data-dig-label=\"breakeven employment\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-category=\"LP-U.S.Analysis-DataFlashes-US\" class=\"rbc-link-format\">breakeven employment<\/a>, at 40K, we expect to see that payroll growth is tracking just slightly below breakeven when we get revisions in the February report (released in March).<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading has-text-major-xs-font-size\" id=\"h-3-trade-exposed-sectors-continue-to-shed-jobs-in-november\"><strong><strong>3) <strong>Trade-exposed sectors continue to shed jobs in November<\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-rbc-list is-style-black-disc mar-l-qtr mob-mar-l-qtr\">\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>We continue to see the majority of job gains concentrated in sectors benefiting from structural growth \u2013 like health care and social assistance employment (+64K in November), bolstered by an aging population.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>Cyclically-exposed sectors, on the other hand, have posted weaker job growth. In November in particular, we saw services sector employment (excluding health care and social assistance and government) shed ~17K jobs. Previously, we had witnessed notable strength in leisure and hospitality but we saw a retracement in November. Trade-exposed sectors like transportation and warehousing and wholesale trade shed jobs.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>Goods-sector employment was stronger in November but this was entirely a story of strength in the construction sector. The trade-exposed manufacturing sector continued to shed jobs.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading has-text-major-xs-font-size\" id=\"h-4-government-employment-impacted-by-doge-cuts-in-october\"><strong><strong>4) <strong><strong>Government employment impacted by DOGE cuts in October<\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-rbc-list is-style-black-disc mar-l-qtr mob-mar-l-qtr\">\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>The (delayed) October NFP print (-105K) was distorted by a -162K decline in federal government jobs. Employees who elected federal buyout packages through DOGE were kept on payrolls through September and fell off in October.&nbsp;<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>Looking at private payroll gains for October, job growth ticked up a more modest +52K.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-rbc-dark-blue-color has-text-color has-link-color has-text-major-lg-font-size wp-elements-3099a15f0b436e6e988e5e39d56cf7ba\" id=\"h-beneath-the-surface\"><strong>Beneath the Surface:<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-rbc-list is-style-black-disc mar-l-qtr mob-mar-l-qtr\">\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>The labor force participation ticked up to 62.5% in November from 62.4% in September, despite a surge in retirements.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>Roughly 24% of unemployed workers are long-term unemployed, this is still in-line with what we had witnessed in prior months.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>On a monthly basis, average hourly earnings rose +0.1% m\/m in November \u2013 below consensus of +0.3%.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\" \/>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2025\/12\/6cad244b-98cc-44eb-8b00-8093b7c9805c.png?quality=80\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-6064\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2025\/12\/6cad244b-98cc-44eb-8b00-8093b7c9805c.png 800w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2025\/12\/6cad244b-98cc-44eb-8b00-8093b7c9805c.png?resize=300,225 300w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2025\/12\/6cad244b-98cc-44eb-8b00-8093b7c9805c.png?resize=768,576 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\" \/>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2025\/12\/c71d2a9c-99fc-40e9-a8f4-6f21cb52b13b.png?quality=80\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-6063\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2025\/12\/c71d2a9c-99fc-40e9-a8f4-6f21cb52b13b.png 800w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2025\/12\/c71d2a9c-99fc-40e9-a8f4-6f21cb52b13b.png?resize=300,225 300w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2025\/12\/c71d2a9c-99fc-40e9-a8f4-6f21cb52b13b.png?resize=768,576 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-wide wide\" \/>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center\"><strong>About the Authors<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em><strong>Mike Reid<\/strong>&nbsp;is a Senior U.S. Economist at RBC. He is responsible for generating RBC\u2019s U.S. economic outlook, providing commentary on macro indicators, and producing written analysis around the economic backdrop.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em><strong>Carrie Freestone<\/strong>&nbsp;is an economist and a member of the macroeconomic analysis group. She is responsible for examining key economic trends including consumer spending, labour markets, GDP, and inflation.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em><strong>Imri Haggin<\/strong>&nbsp;is an economist at RBC Capital Markets, where he focuses on thematic research. His prior work has centered on consumer credit dynamics and treasury modeling, with an emphasis on leveraging data to understand behavior.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"author":189,"featured_media":4561,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"advgb_blocks_editor_width":"","advgb_blocks_columns_visual_guide":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[85,81],"tags":[58,110],"class_list":["post-6062","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-us-data-flashes","category-us-analysis","tag-labour-market","tag-u-s"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.7 (Yoast SEO v26.8) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>US Employment Report: The fog is clearing but crosswinds persist - RBC Economics<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/us-analysis\/us-data-flashes\/us-employment-report-the-fog-is-clearing-but-crosswinds-persist\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"US Employment Report: The fog is clearing but crosswinds persist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/us-analysis\/us-data-flashes\/us-employment-report-the-fog-is-clearing-but-crosswinds-persist\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"RBC Economics\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2025-12-16T14:42:40+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2026-04-02T23:32:47+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2025\/09\/Employment2-banner-compressed.png?quality=80\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"3067\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"1850\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"aidansmithedgell\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"aidansmithedgell\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"5 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/us-analysis\/us-data-flashes\/us-employment-report-the-fog-is-clearing-but-crosswinds-persist\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/us-analysis\/us-data-flashes\/us-employment-report-the-fog-is-clearing-but-crosswinds-persist\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"aidansmithedgell\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/#\/schema\/person\/466b148147b6e1461c12a15420fc76fd\"},\"headline\":\"US Employment Report: The fog is clearing but crosswinds persist\",\"datePublished\":\"2025-12-16T14:42:40+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2026-04-02T23:32:47+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/us-analysis\/us-data-flashes\/us-employment-report-the-fog-is-clearing-but-crosswinds-persist\/\"},\"wordCount\":792,\"commentCount\":0,\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/us-analysis\/us-data-flashes\/us-employment-report-the-fog-is-clearing-but-crosswinds-persist\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2025\/09\/Employment2-banner-compressed.png?quality=80\",\"keywords\":[\"Labour Market\",\"U.S.\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Data Flashes - 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