{"id":5186,"date":"2025-11-25T23:57:16","date_gmt":"2025-11-25T23:57:16","guid":{"rendered":""},"modified":"2026-04-02T23:19:21","modified_gmt":"2026-04-02T23:19:21","slug":"quebecs-modest-near-term-improvement-doesnt-alter-fiscal-trajectory","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/canadian-analysis\/provincial-and-fiscal-outlooks\/provincial-budgets-and-economic-statements\/quebecs-modest-near-term-improvement-doesnt-alter-fiscal-trajectory\/","title":{"rendered":"Quebec\u2019s modest near-term improvement doesn\u2019t alter fiscal trajectory"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<section class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-block  pos-rel\" style=\"border-radius:0px\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-inner-block  section-inner\" style=\"border-radius:0x\">\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-text-major-reg-font-size\" id=\"h-highlights\"><strong>Highlights:<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-rbc-list is-style-black-disc\">\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>The 2025-26 budgetary shortfall is $1.5B smaller at $12 billion (after deposits to the Generations Fund) than Budget 2025\u2019s projection, but is still more than one and a half times larger than $7.6 billion recorded in 2024-25.<a id=\"_msocom_1\"><\/a><\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>Quebec\u2019s legal obligation to balance the budget by 2029-30 hinges on finding a cumulative $6 billion in new revenue and cost savings over the next five years.<a id=\"_msocom_1\"><\/a><\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>The fiscal update introduces $8.3 billion in affordability and competitiveness measures over five years, including pension and insurance premium cuts, tax indexation, and $401 million in support for tariff-exposed sectors.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>Net debt-to-gross domestic product is still on track to peak more than 41% in 2027-28 despite modest near-term improvement arising, in part, from upside surprise to nominal GDP in 2024.<a id=\"_msocom_1\"><\/a><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-wide wide\" \/>\n\n\n\n<div id=\"everviz-X-oIUGLj9\" class=\"everviz-X-oIUGLj9\" data-view=\"graph\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-wide wide\" \/>\n\n\n\n<p>Quebec\u2019s fiscal trajectory is little changed from Budget 2025 despite a better-than-expected handoff from 2024-25. Public accounts in September showed a smaller deficit of $7.6 billion (after deposits to the Generations Fund) last fiscal year than projected in Budget 2025\u2014mainly due to stronger than projected tax revenues.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The government upgraded its 2025 nominal GDP figure as well, supporting a modest $1.5 billion improvement to the deficit for 2025-26. Some of this, however, will be tempered by reduced capital gains revenue. Quebec is following the federal government\u2019s cancelling of the capital gains inclusion rate increase.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The near-term improvement in the province\u2019s bottom line also won\u2019t speed up the planned return to balance. As in Budget 2025, Quebec\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/www.finances.gouv.qc.ca\/Budget_and_update\/maj\/documents\/AUTEN_updateNov2025.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" data-dig-id=\"LP-CanadianAnalysis-ProvincialandFiscalOutlooks-5186-469a2a53\" data-dig-category=\"LP-CanadianAnalysis-ProvincialandFiscalOutlooks\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-label=\"2025 fall economic update\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" class=\"rbc-link-format\">2025 fall economic update<\/a> keeps the five-year fiscal plan in deficit until it\u2019s legally obligated to balance the budget in 2029-30. Budgetary balance, however, continues to rely on finding $6 billion in cumulative savings to bridge the gap\u2014adding upside risk to the longer-term deficit profile.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"3863\" height=\"3873\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2025\/11\/1.3-Quebecs-consolidated-fiscal-plan.png?quality=80\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5212\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2025\/11\/1.3-Quebecs-consolidated-fiscal-plan.png 3863w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2025\/11\/1.3-Quebecs-consolidated-fiscal-plan.png?resize=150,150 150w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2025\/11\/1.3-Quebecs-consolidated-fiscal-plan.png?resize=300,300 300w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2025\/11\/1.3-Quebecs-consolidated-fiscal-plan.png?resize=768,770 768w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2025\/11\/1.3-Quebecs-consolidated-fiscal-plan.png?resize=1021,1024 1021w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2025\/11\/1.3-Quebecs-consolidated-fiscal-plan.png?resize=1532,1536 1532w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2025\/11\/1.3-Quebecs-consolidated-fiscal-plan.png?resize=2043,2048 2043w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 3863px) 100vw, 3863px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-text-major-reg-font-size\" id=\"h-upward-revision-to-nominal-gdp-growth-supports-near-term-improvement\"><strong>Upward revision to nominal GDP growth supports near-term improvement<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Quebec&#8217;s nominal GDP growth was revised higher to 4.0% in 2025 \u2013 up from the previous 3.4% forecast, reflecting stronger-than-anticipated 2024 performance and resilient wage dynamics to date.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This provides support to the near-term fiscal outlook, though considerable risks loom. The impact of U.S. tariffs thus far has fallen <a href=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/canadian-analysis\/featured-analysis\/insights\/tariffs-leave-mark-on-canadas-industrial-heartland\/\">more heavily<\/a> on Quebec than most other provinces, which if sustained could trigger higher government spending or bring in lower-than-expected revenues.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2898\" height=\"2376\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2025\/11\/2.2-Economic-growth-assumptions.png?quality=80\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5234\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2025\/11\/2.2-Economic-growth-assumptions.png 2898w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2025\/11\/2.2-Economic-growth-assumptions.png?resize=300,246 300w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2025\/11\/2.2-Economic-growth-assumptions.png?resize=768,630 768w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2025\/11\/2.2-Economic-growth-assumptions.png?resize=1024,840 1024w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2025\/11\/2.2-Economic-growth-assumptions.png?resize=1536,1259 1536w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2025\/11\/2.2-Economic-growth-assumptions.png?resize=2048,1679 2048w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2898px) 100vw, 2898px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-text-major-reg-font-size\" id=\"h-targeted-affordability-and-competitiveness-measures\"><strong>Targeted affordability and competitiveness measures<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The fiscal update introduces $8.3 billion in policy measures over five years aimed at easing financial pressures on households and businesses while bolstering resilience amid trade headwinds.<br><br>Nearly $5.9 billion is directed toward affordability measures. This includes a 0.2 percentage point cut to QPP contribution rates, split evenly between employers and employees, and a 13% reduction in Quebec Parental Insurance Plan (QPIP) premiums across both groups, yielding $1.8 billion in support over five years. Indexation of the tax system and social assistance benefits are expected to deliver $4.1 billion over five years, while $59 million targets vulnerable populations through expanded homelessness and social assistance programs.<br><br>A further $2.5 billion over five years supports competitiveness through reduced business tax burdens and enhanced capital investment incentives. The government will extend rapid depreciation provisions, enabling businesses to layer provincial benefits with federal measures, and broaden accelerated depreciation eligibility to new investments in buildings used for manufacturing and processing activities ($130 million over five years). Cancellation of the proposed corporate capital gains inclusion rate increase will trim business tax liabilities by nearly $1.1 billion through 2029-30. Reductions to employer social security contributions for QPP and QPIP are also expected to lower business payroll costs ($1.9 billion over five years).<br><br>Tariff-exposed sectors receive $401 million in targeted support over five years with particular focus on agriculture, forestry, and fishing industries. Measures include a two-year temporary Health Service Fund payroll tax holiday, and extended tax deferrals for some affected sectors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-text-major-reg-font-size\" id=\"h-modest-improvement-to-debt-burden\"><strong>Modest improvement to debt burden<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Quebec&#8217;s stronger-than-expected economic performance has improved its fiscal position. Debt metrics against the size of the economy look slightly better than previously expected, offering a more favourable entry point for the fiscal plan.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Still, the debt burden is on a deteriorating trajectory over the medium-term. The net debt-to-GDP ratio sits at 38.3% in 2024-25\u2014near a two-decade low\u2014but is projected to rise, peaking above 41% in 2027-28 before returning downward, ending at 39.3% in 2029-30.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Quebec&#8217;s high debt burden leaves a minimal buffer for downside risks at a time of heightened economic uncertainty across Canada\u2014and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/canadian-analysis\/featured-analysis\/quarterly-canadian-outlook\/quarterly-canadian-outlook-low-but-positive-growth-ahead\/\" target=\"_blank\" data-dig-id=\"LP-CanadianAnalysis-ProvincialandFiscalOutlooks-5186-469a2a53\" data-dig-category=\"LP-CanadianAnalysis-ProvincialandFiscalOutlooks\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-label=\"especially in Quebec\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" class=\"rbc-link-format\">especially in Quebec<\/a>, which shoulders a disproportionate burden of the impact from changing U.S. trade policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-wide wide\" \/>\n\n\n\n<div id=\"everviz-4JtVa75ZB\" class=\"everviz-4JtVa75ZB\" data-view=\"graph\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-wide wide\" \/>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center\"><strong>About the Authors<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em><strong>Rachel Battaglia<\/strong>&nbsp;is an economist at RBC, providing analysis and forecasts for consumer spending trends and provincial economies.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em><strong>Salim Zanzana<\/strong>&nbsp;is an economist at RBC. He focuses on emerging macroeconomic issues, ranging from trends in the labour market to shifts in the longer-term structural growth of Canada and other global economies.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-wide wide\" \/>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"author":318,"featured_media":5192,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"advgb_blocks_editor_width":"","advgb_blocks_columns_visual_guide":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[83,91,45],"tags":[105,115,27],"rbc_econ_content_type":[],"class_list":["post-5186","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-canadian-analysis","category-provincial-and-fiscal-outlooks","category-provincial-budgets-and-economic-statements","tag-budget","tag-canada","tag-quebec"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized 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