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- 25% of Canada\u2019s 4 million tradespeople will need to upgrade their skills within five years amid significant digital disruption.1<\/sup><\/li>\n
- Canada will face a shortage of at least 10,000 workers in nationally recognized Red Seal trades over that period\u2014a deficit that swells tenfold when 250 provincially regulated trades are included.2<\/sup><\/li>\n
- The most severe shortages will be among trades critical to the coming infrastructure boom, including industrial mechanics, welders and boilermakers.<\/li>\n
- Demand for digital and \u201csoft” skills like creativity and problem solving is expected to rise significantly in these critical trades.<\/li>\n
- Over 700,000 skilled tradespeople are expected to retire by 2028. Meanwhile, an outdated perception of the trades has hobbled recruitment efforts.<\/li>\n
- Women made up just 11% of new registrants for apprenticeship programs in 2019 and continue to represent less than 4% of workers in the most in-demand trades.3<\/sup><\/li>\n
- Immigrants comprised 8.7% of apprentices despite accounting for more than 20% of the population.4<\/sup><\/li>\n
- Canada is falling short of its goal to bring in 3,000 skilled tradespeople annually through immigration, admitting 2,365 such newcomers in 2019 through the Federal Skilled Trades Program.5<\/sup><\/li>\n
- Educators, employers and policymakers will need to address chronic problems in the trades pipeline, tap into underused pools of talent, and address a widening digital skills gap amid rapid technological advances in the workplace.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
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\u00a0<\/div>\nWanted: a bigger toolbox<\/b><\/h2>\n
Virtual-reality headsets show blueprints to workers as they walk through a construction site. A carpenter plots precise cuts down to the millimeter with the aid of computer-assisted design. A welder performs her job remotely with the help of a robot.<\/p>\n
Technological change, accelerated by the pandemic, has transformed not only the tools available to tradespeople, but the skills needed to operate them. Today\u2019s industrial mechanics, electricians and automotive service technicians must have the digital savvy to operate the electronic-testing equipment, 3D technology, and digital diagnostic tools becoming commonplace in the manufacturing and construction sectors. They will also have to brace for frequent retraining on evolving technologies. <\/p>\n
Meanwhile, soft skills\u2014critical thinking, curiosity, creativity, problem solving and communication\u2014are more important than ever in an economy that demands collaboration across sectors. These skills will increase in importance as the Fourth Industrial Revolution unfolds. But they won\u2019t replace traditional technical ability. A foundational understanding of metallurgy, for instance, will remain crucial to a welder programming a robotic arm. <\/p>\n
Canada\u2019s skilled tradespeople\u2014the welders, machinists, electricians and plumbers that have long been the backbone of our economy\u2014are more critical than ever. In this report, we identify the main challenges facing the sector\u2014the underrepresentation of women and immigrants, the need to double down on digital training, and the ongoing stigmas surrounding trades careers\u2014and how best to tackle them. The challenges are significant. So are the opportunities.<\/p>\n
This RBC report was developed within our Humans Wanted research program. It is informed by a series of roundtables and interviews with skilled trades workers, employers, educators, and industry leaders beginning in early 2020. It leverages findings from an analysis of specific trades using the occupational database O*NET and conversations with various stakeholders, as well as Statistics Canada products. <\/i><\/p>\n
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\u00a0<\/div>\nCanada risks getting caught short<\/b><\/h2>\n
Even before the pandemic disrupted training programs and upended labour markets, Canada struggled to maintain a steady flow of skilled tradespeople. Attempts to attract young people, women and immigrants to the field have repeatedly fallen short, leaving many trades unable to replenish vacancies left by retiring workers. The Canadian Apprenticeship Forum estimates Canada will face a gap of more than 60,000 registered apprentices by 2025, after new registrations plunged 37% last year.6<\/sup><\/p>\n
\n<\/div>\nSee the timeline of skilled trades history in the Appendix.<\/em><\/p>\n
\nAs Ottawa and the provinces contemplate the most ambitious economic rebuild in generations, including a stimulus-fueled infrastructure renewal and green projects, Canada will feel the pain of these shortages more acutely. In the next five years, the country will confront a shortfall of at least 10,000 skilled tradespeople just in the 56 high-demand Red Seal trades7<\/sup>\u2014and the deficit could be 10 times bigger when the 250 provincially regulated trades are included. Shortages will be particularly severe among industrial mechanics, boilermakers and welders. And that\u2019s before taking into account uncertainty over how many workers and apprentices will return to pre-pandemic programs and jobs.<\/p>\n
\u201cWe are short about 15 plumbers right now and we\u2019ve had to say no to some contracts. That\u2019s never happened before. It\u2019s like a chess game to move all the employees from one job to another.\u201d <\/em><\/h4>\n
\u2014Denis Beauchamp, <\/strong>Chair of Corporation des ma\u00eetres m\u00e9caniciens en tuyauterie du Qu\u00e9bec<\/p>\n
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\nSpecific challenges will vary across provinces. Following heavy job cuts in the hard-hit energy sector, Alberta has experienced a steep decline in registrations for skilled trades. New apprenticeship registrations fell to the lowest level in a decade in 2019\u2014with significant drops in 20 of 21 major trades. An economic recovery in Alberta, combined with an increase in post-pandemic infrastructure and green spending, is expected to mean more demand for trades. Even without these new pressures, ongoing demand from oil and gas and residential construction threatens to leave Alberta shorthanded. By contrast, Quebec and Ontario saw increased registrations in 2019, though severe shortfalls persist in individual trades and within specific sub-regions.<\/p>\n
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\nAn aging workforce could worsen the crunch. More than 700,000 workers in the skilled trades are expected to retire by 2028.8<\/sup> In manufacturing alone, one-quarter of the workforce is aged 55 or older, and less than 10% of workers are under the age of 25.9<\/sup> What\u2019s more, the trades themselves are undergoing a significant shift to digital technologies. These innovations have empowered many to perform their jobs more efficiently and with greater accuracy. However, they have also created new urgency for upskilling, with about one-quarter of the 4 million people working in the trades expected to require retraining in the next five years, according to our analysis of Statistics Canada’s labour force survey and data on occupations most likely to transform.<\/p>\n\n
\u201cThere are skills shortages, but it’s not just shortages to replace existing skills. The level of skill requirements is going to continue to increase. And particularly as there are big disruptions in technology and disruptions in business.\u201d<\/em><\/h4>\n
\u2014Jayson Myers, <\/strong>CEO, Next Generation Manufacturing Canada<\/p>\n
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\u00a0<\/div>\nDemand for digital skills rising in trades critical to economic rebuild<\/b><\/h2>\n
As technology becomes more embedded in our economy and workplaces, tradespeople will need to pivot\u2014employing soft skills and embracing a mindset of constant learning.<\/p>\n
We analyzed four of the most in-demand trades in the current economy, and found the digital know-how necessary to thrive in these fields will continue to increase significantly in the years to come. This transition will heighten the pressure on educators to keep evolving their programs, and on tradespeople to continue upgrading their skills.<\/p>\n
\nShare of work activity by occupation and period, %<\/p>\n
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\n<\/div>\nSource: O*NET, Occupational Database, RBC Economics<\/p>\n
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\u00a0<\/div>\nRecruiting the workforce of the future<\/b><\/h2>\n
Closing the gap between the supply of skilled tradespeople and growing demand will mean addressing core challenges, including recruiting from underrepresented groups and battling outdated biases. And that\u2019s on top of preparing the next generation of tradespeople for a more digital future.<\/p>\n
Boosting recruitment efforts<\/b><\/h4>\n
The first chokepoint in the skills pipeline comes long before a would-be tradesperson registers as an apprentice. Many tradespeople discovered their vocations in shop class, where they first held welding rods or operated lathes. This early exposure is especially important in the recruitment of underrepresented groups who may not otherwise get the chance to discover an interest or aptitude in a trade, industry groups say.<\/p>\n
With more than 700,000 skilled tradespeople set to retire by 2028, the need to tap into new pools of talent is urgent. Though the share of women entering male-dominated trades has increased over the last decade, it was still only 5% of apprenticeship registrations in 2019. Meanwhile, immigrants make up more than 21% of the Canadian population, but accounted for just 8.7% of apprentices in 2018.10<\/sup> Despite setting a goal to bring in 3,000 skilled tradespeople annually through immigration, Canada admitted just 2,365 such newcomers in 2019 through the Federal Skilled Trades Program.11<\/sup> In some trades still facing severe shortages in the market (such as carpenters) Canada limited the number of eligible tradespeople to just 100.<\/p>\n
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Indigenous Canadians make up a greater proportion of apprentices than their share of the population. And as the fastest-growing cohort of Canadian youth\u2014their numbers are expanding four times faster than the non-Indigenous population\u2014they have the potential to be an even bigger presence in the skilled trades workforce of the future. The median ages of carpenters, cooks, auto technicians, truck and bus mechanics, transport truck drivers, welders and heavy-equipment operators all rose between 1996 and 2016, and are all above the age of 35.12<\/sup><\/p>\n
The CWB Welding Foundation, a Canadian not-for-profit, is among the organizations attempting to build bridges to these groups. It has invested over $3.5 million in secondary school welding labs and hosted trades camps designed specifically for women, newcomers and Indigenous people.13<\/sup><\/p>\n
Battling outdated stigmas<\/b><\/h4>\n
Beyond a lack of exposure, the trades have long battled a perception problem. The stereotype of skilled trades as \u201cblue-collar\u201d jobs involving heavy, dirty physical work best suited to students who lack the aptitude for \u201cwhite-collar\u201d careers persists. This is despite health and safety standards that limit the amount of lifting required in many trades and average salaries that often exceed other professions. The median income for pipefitters and heavy-duty equipment technicians with four years\u2019 certification surpassed $100,000 in 2018; electricians earned between $80,000 and $90,000.14<\/sup> What\u2019s more, intellectual aptitude is frequently identified as a critical requirement for the trades\u2014particularly as technological transformation makes a lifelong upgrading of skills necessary.<\/p>\n
\u201cI’m giving a $2 million machine to this person, please don’t let it be the person in the back of the classroom. I’m still working on fixing that perception because it is a problem for us as an industry and as a country in this area.\u201d <\/em><\/h4>\n
\u2014Shaun Scott, <\/strong>Director of Organizational Development at Linamar Corp.<\/p>\n
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Recession-proofing the training ground<\/b><\/h4>\n
Apprenticeship programs\u2014the dominant educational pathway for tradespeople\u2014typically see apprentices spend 80% to 90% of their time in the field learning from qualified journeypersons. The practice ends up tying education to the short-term performance of the economy. A survey by the Canadian Apprenticeship Forum found the rate of unemployment for apprentices rose to 29% during the pandemic, from 9% previously.15<\/sup> Coursework was also suspended, prompting some to consider leaving their apprenticeships altogether (23% of respondents to CAF\u2019s survey weighed this option).<\/p>\n
A silver lining of the crisis is that it led many institutions to move their coursework onto virtual platforms earlier or more extensively than they\u2019d planned. Though most educators say in-person training can\u2019t be completely replaced, the experience during the pandemic has pushed others to embrace the potential in virtual options. The Flexibility and Innovation in Apprenticeship Technical Training (FIATT)\u2014a federal pilot program that ran from 2015 to 2018\u2014offered mobile learning labs and online tools for apprentices to ease the challenges of meeting coursework requirements. Apprentices reviewing the program said it reduced loss of income, allowed them to learn at their own pace and miss less work as they completed their requirements.16<\/sup><\/p>\n
Greater use of virtual training and digital tools could be a game-changer for trades education, enabling employers to evaluate skills and apprentices to more efficiently obtain their certifications and continue on their path through economic downturns.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe pandemic definitely accelerated things. A lot of our coursework was already online, including videos and some actual programs where you can try them digitally. So in some ways, when the pandemic hit, we were quite fortunate in that we were able to kind of switch straight into gear.\u201d <\/em><\/h4>\n
\u2014Sarah-Jayne Roe, <\/strong>Acting Chair, Trades Development and Special Projects, Camosun College<\/p>\n
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Keeping up with rapidly changing technology<\/b><\/h4>\n
As the rate of technological change accelerates, there\u2019s a risk it will outpace the curricula of apprenticeship programs. Rapid change has also increased the need for continuous upskilling among current journeypersons. The shift in Alberta\u2019s energy sector toward more green technologies, for instance, will require tradespeople previously employed in the oil patch to adapt. A similar transition will be needed in the auto sector amid the transition to zero-emission vehicles.<\/p>\n
\u201cWhether you’re developing an oil facility or you’re out there building a solar farm or a wind farm, it’s still tradespeople doing that work. And a lot of the fundamental work they are doing in those cases is similar but there are differences\u2026They’ll have to adapt to keep themselves resilient in a renewable economy.\u201d<\/em><\/h4>\n
\u2014Jim Szautner, <\/strong>Dean of the Schools of Manufacturing and Automation and the School of Transportation at the Southern Alberta Institute of Technology<\/p>\n
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Some businesses are supplementing the education provided by schools. Large companies like Linamar in Ontario have developed programs in collaboration with local colleges to ensure students are equipped with the latest skills needed on the shop floor. Meanwhile, in anticipation of a broad shift to electric and battery powered cars, organizations like the Automotive Parts Manufacturers Association (APMA) are developing shared industry-wide digital learning platforms to minimize the cost of upskilling employees at smaller firms.<\/p>\n
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\nMeet the players<\/b><\/h4>\n
\n\n![\"...\"](\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2025\/03\/Peter-1.jpg\")
<\/p>\n - Canada will face a shortage of at least 10,000 workers in nationally recognized Red Seal trades over that period\u2014a deficit that swells tenfold when 250 provincially regulated trades are included.2<\/sup><\/li>\n