{"id":4711,"date":"2025-11-10T16:36:44","date_gmt":"2025-11-10T16:36:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/?p=4711"},"modified":"2026-04-02T23:11:19","modified_gmt":"2026-04-02T23:11:19","slug":"canada-maintains-tight-immigration-policy-despite-permanent-resident-exemptions","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/canadian-analysis\/featured-analysis\/insights\/canada-maintains-tight-immigration-policy-despite-permanent-resident-exemptions\/","title":{"rendered":"Canada maintains tight immigration policy despite permanent resident exemptions"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<section class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-block  pos-rel\" style=\"border-radius:0px\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-inner-block  section-inner\" style=\"border-radius:0x\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns pad-t-hlf mob-pad-t-hlf pad-b-hlf mob-pad-b-hlf pad-l-hlf mob-pad-l-hlf pad-r-hlf mob-pad-r-hlf has-rbc-bright-blue-tint-4-background-color has-background is-layout-flex wp-container-core-columns-is-layout-65eef5bf wp-block-columns-is-layout-flex\" style=\"border-style:none;border-width:0px;border-radius:5px\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-column pad-b-hlf mob-pad-b-hlf pad-t-hlf mob-pad-t-hlf is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\" style=\"flex-basis:98%\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-media-text is-stacked-on-mobile is-vertically-aligned-center mar-l-hlf pad-l-hlf\" style=\"grid-template-columns:22% auto\"><figure class=\"wp-block-media-text__media\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2025\/11\/Immmigr-icon-nov25.png?quality=80&amp;w=1024\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-22487 size-full\" \/><\/figure><div class=\"wp-block-media-text__content\">\n<p>The Canadian federal government\u2019s latest three-year <a href=\"https:\/\/www.canada.ca\/en\/immigration-refugees-citizenship\/corporate\/publications-manuals\/annual-report-parliament-immigration-2025.html#temporary\" target=\"_blank\" data-dig-id=\"LP-CanadianAnalysis-Insights-4711-b2eb5239\" data-dig-category=\"LP-CanadianAnalysis-Insights\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-label=\"immigration plan\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" class=\"rbc-link-format\">immigration plan<\/a> represents a far smaller shift in policy than last year\u2019s overhaul.<\/p>\n<\/div><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>The government is further reducing the number of temporary residents allowed into Canada. However, it&#8217;s also creating some exceptions that will increase the number of permanent residents through one-time fast-track programs\u2014which should cushion the decline.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Officials have also extended their timeline for reducing Canada\u2019s temporary residents to&nbsp;\u201cless than 5%\u201d&nbsp;of the total population, pushing the target date from 2026 to the end of 2027.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The net effect of these changes shouldn&#8217;t impact our population growth projections for 2025, tracking just under 1%. Beyond this year, our forecasts already assumed milder outflows would bring temporary residents toward 5% of the population by the end of 2027\u2014aligning with the government&#8217;s revised timeline.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>However, the timing of current temporary resident departures and various exemptions continue to add uncertainty to near-term population growth rates, and both permanent and temporary resident arrival targets will continue to be refreshed annually.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Still, we continue to expect Canada\u2019s population growth will slow close to zero in 2026 and 2027.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading has-rbc-bright-blue-tint-1-color has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-c43efeb39a37d7455a0046ab5ab0fbbf\" id=\"h-total-permanent-resident-admissions-set-to-increase-over-next-two-years\"><strong><strong>Total permanent resident admissions set to increase over next two years<\/strong><\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>On the surface, the new immigration levels appear to reduce and freeze the permanent resident target at 380,000 over the next three years from 395,000 in 2025. However, one-time exemptions will boost the number in practice. &nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Beyond regular immigration targets, the government will fast track roughly 115,000 Protected Persons already on a pathway to permanent residency over 2026 and 2027\u2014bringing actual permanent resident admissions up to 437,500 in 2026. This represents an 11% increase from 2025&#8217;s allocation, significantly exceeding the official 380,000 annual target for 2026-2028.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>While these exemptions apply to people already living in Canada, processing them as permanent residents opens up more capacity for new permanent residents to come to Canada.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-wide wide\" \/>\n\n\n\n<div id=\"everviz-vsrpn0GRe\" class=\"everviz-vsrpn0GRe\" data-view=\"graph\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-wide wide\" \/>\n\n\n\n<p>The government also plans to accelerate the transition of up to 33,000 temporary workers to permanent residency in 2026 and 2027. However, it\u2019s unclear whether these transitions represent additional admissions or fall within existing targets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading has-rbc-bright-blue-tint-1-color has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-68f8811269c3384de501b1d524cfb66d\" id=\"h-temporary-resident-targets-slashed-further-as-outflow-projections-fall-short\"><strong><strong>Temporary resident targets slashed further as outflow projections fall short<\/strong><\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>There are more substantial changes for temporary residents in the new immigration plan, which should offset the permanent resident increases.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The government\u2019s dramatic 43% reduction in new temporary residents\u2014from roughly 674,000 in 2025 to 385,000 in 2026\u2014was designed to shore up its commitment to reducing the temporary resident population to&nbsp;less than&nbsp;5%, albeit under an extended timeline.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>With outflows proving difficult to manage, the government turned to dramatically cutting inflows as the primary tool to meet its population targets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Setting outflow projections was always <a href=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/canadian-analysis\/featured-analysis\/insights\/how-canadas-new-immigration-targets-will-impact-the-economy\/\" target=\"_blank\" data-dig-id=\"LP-CanadianAnalysis-Insights-4711-b2eb5239\" data-dig-category=\"LP-CanadianAnalysis-Insights\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-label=\"expected to be\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" class=\"rbc-link-format\">expected to be<\/a> challenging given the government&#8217;s limited ability to control individual departure decisions, and the difficulty in accurately measuring whether expired permit holders leave Canada. Unlike the 2024 plan, this year&#8217;s report omitted outflow guidance entirely.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading has-rbc-bright-blue-tint-1-color has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-943008c59e1f0c410af0ddce6a120c07\" id=\"h-international-student-admissions-reduced-by-half\"><strong><strong><strong>International student admissions reduced by half<\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>International students bear the heaviest burden of these cuts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Admissions have been halved from 2025, and will remain around the reduced level of roughly 150,000 over the next three years. This marks the smallest study permit allocation in at least a decade.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-wide wide\" \/>\n\n\n\n<div id=\"everviz-2x5Znz9zR\" class=\"everviz-2x5Znz9zR\" data-view=\"graph\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-wide wide\" \/>\n\n\n\n<p>Reduced targets for internationals students will further challenge post-secondary education institutions that have a high proportion of students from abroad\u2014and risks impacting Canada\u2019s pipeline of educated talent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>As we&#8217;ve noted <a href=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/canadian-analysis\/featured-analysis\/insights\/rent-retreat-canadian-tenants-catch-a-break\/\" target=\"_blank\" data-dig-id=\"LP-CanadianAnalysis-Insights-4711-b2eb5239\" data-dig-category=\"LP-CanadianAnalysis-Insights\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-label=\"previously\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" class=\"rbc-link-format\">previously<\/a>, reduced inflows also have significant effects on Canada\u2019s rental markets\u2014particularly in areas with a high concentration of students. Further target reductions could make rental market cooling more pronounced as international students represent a diminishing share of rental housing demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading has-rbc-bright-blue-tint-1-color has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-6d6e0bb1f327d3b68d10b0873a42ed64\" id=\"h-government-fast-tracks-workers-through-mobility-programs\"><strong><strong>Government fast tracks workers through mobility programs<\/strong><\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-media-text is-stacked-on-mobile\" style=\"grid-template-columns:29% auto\"><figure class=\"wp-block-media-text__media\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2025\/11\/Note-Immigration-piece5.png?quality=80&amp;w=792\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-22479 size-full\" \/><\/figure><div class=\"wp-block-media-text__content\">\n<p>The government has also shifted priorities between programs for temporary workers. International Mobility Program (IMP) allocations have increased from 2024 targets, while Temporary Foreign Worker (TFW) targets have decreased.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The policy shift makes space for more workers to enter Canada\u2019s labour market faster, rather than going through the two-step process of studying in Canada first.<\/p>\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-wide wide\" \/>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center\"><strong>About the Author<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-left\"><em><strong>Rachel Battaglia<\/strong>&nbsp;is an economist at RBC. She is a member of the Macro and Regional Analysis Group, providing analysis for the provincial macroeconomic outlook.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-wide wide\" \/>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"author":318,"featured_media":3111,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"advgb_blocks_editor_width":"","advgb_blocks_columns_visual_guide":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[83,82,84],"tags":[115,124],"rbc_econ_content_type":[],"class_list":["post-4711","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-canadian-analysis","category-featured-analysis","category-insights","tag-canada","tag-immigration"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.4 (Yoast SEO v27.4) - 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